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  • 2Slik

    I’d be shocked if a lot of DFS pros aren’t dipping their toes into the stock market right now. A lot of contrarian plays out there.

  • Brandon6385

    I just sold my AMD stock yesterday. Not 100% they are going to be ok with what’s going on in China

  • Awon1

    @Brandon6385 said...

    I just sold my AMD stock yesterday. Not 100% they are going to be ok with what’s going on in China

    I actually own that stock but I don’t know why it’s green today. I have short term puts long term stock so I want everything red lol. Maybe people are right timing the market is too hard.

  • Awon1

    @Awon1 said...

    How in the world is Jay Powell able to pump this much money?

    Half of my watch list of stocks I want to track are green.

    Disney, Microsoft, AMD, Costco, Wal Mart, what is going on….

    Thank you! Maybe someone broke Jay Powell’s money printer because market going back down again. Most stocks are now red pretty much, including the ones which turned green earlier.

    I wanna buy more puts but I have to restrain myself. Trading is fun though. It’s like DFS except you can swap players intragame. Like intraday I can switch positions in trading but you can’t do that in DFS. I wish we could though. Maybe DK will change the rules for a special format one day.

  • Awon1

    If I could I would buy AMD puts but I can’t trade single stock options. Makes no sense why it’s so green.

  • Awon1

    Whoa I’m up a lot on my puts. I actually bought some IWM puts like an hour ago since that was recommended earlier by superstars92 as that loses more than SPY and QQQ on downturns.

    Also listened to Bif and just bought some SDOW too like 30 mins ago.

    I’m just gonna play this like DFS. Will listen to people more knowledgeable than me and then put my money if I like it.

    I have now a ton invested in short term trades. I don’t care about the loss, gotta go for it big just like a DFS GPP. No one cares about min cashes. I think I can lose a total of like 5k or so if the market doesn’t crash in 2 weeks. I hope the entire economy crashes so my puts and SDOW can print. AMD is even red now but too bad I couldn’t buy puts on that since it’s a stock. Would have been nice.

    I have another question. So I noticed Costco and Wal Mart are still green today. And a lot of my tech stocks are overperforming SPY. SPY is down over 4% but a lot of big tech stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and AMD are like only down 2%. Does that mean if I buy those stocks and then buy puts on SPY, I’ll win no matter what direction the market goes, assuming they always beat the market and SPY?

  • BIF

    @Awon1 said...

    I have another question. So I noticed Costco and Wal Mart are still green today. And a lot of my tech stocks are overperforming SPY. SPY is down over 4% but a lot of big tech stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and AMD are like only down 2%. Does that mean if I buy those stocks and then buy puts on SPY, I’ll win no matter what direction the market goes, assuming they always beat the market and SPY?

    No – they are beating the market today but things can change if something comes out negative about tech where they could lead the downfall and/or lag in participation of a rally.

    Don’t ever think what happens one day or two days is a trend that should be exploited – people smarter than us have tried and gotten killed. Market is 33% buying the right companies and 67% timing. If Dow loses another 1000 points, I’ll start taking long positions with a 1+ year horizon but probably only invest 33% of my cash initially – right now I’m 50% cash and 50% bearish instruments which I’m hoping to close out within 5-8 trading days.

  • Awon1

    @BIF said...

    No – they are beating the market today but things can change if something comes out negative about tech where they could lead the downfall and/or lag in participation of a rally.

    Don’t ever think what happens one day or two days is a trend that should be exploited – people smarter than us have tried and gotten killed. Market is 33% buying the right companies and 67% timing. If Dow loses another 1000 points, I’ll start taking long positions with a 1+ year horizon but probably only invest 33% of my cash initially – right now I’m 50% cash and 50% bearish instruments which I’m hoping to close out within 5-8 trading days.

    Ok thanks yea I was just looking at the two stocks I would have bought Costco and Johnson and Johnson, and both are doing well today.

    I was curious if people like bought these stocks and then sold SPY to hedge or something so that’s why I asked.

    I agree longer term the trend can reverse. It’s hard to get that longer term trend.

    You say timing is 67% but I also have heard timing is not possible. What are your thoughts? Are you saying it’s a big part but perhaps has a lot of variance to it?

  • BIF

    @Awon1 said...

    Ok thanks yea I was just looking at the two stocks I would have bought Costco and Johnson and Johnson, and both are doing well today.

    I was curious if people like bought these stocks and then sold SPY to hedge or something so that’s why I asked.

    I agree longer term the trend can reverse. It’s hard to get that longer term trend.

    You say timing is 67% but I also have heard timing is not possible. What are your thoughts? Are you saying it’s a big part but perhaps has a lot of variance to it?

    By timing I don’t mean picking the absolute bottom but I do mean not buying at the top.

    Picture someone who took a $250K severance package in 2007 versus someone who took the same package in 2009. If both put it into the stock market the 2007 guy lost a third of his value within a year and now needs a 50% increase to get back to even. Where the guy who put $250K into the market in 2009 could have went into a coma for 10+ years and probably now had double or more (until 2 weeks ago). Timing and luck go hand in hand.

  • superstars92

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    Congrats guys, theDude, Awon, and Bif. You guys probably made a decent amount today. Selloffs are always bigger than up days so you guys did well.

    Like I said, I’m only thinking about this long term, so I stuck with my plan which was to aggressively buy on the down days. I picked the stocks on my list that went down the most today and bought some. My current stock list is high on Google, Salesforce, Nvidia, and JnJ, but I’m just biased towards tech companies.

    It’s probably not the bottom, and there’s a good chance we go down more, but I have no idea so I’m sticking with my plan. I still have plenty of cash left which I raised for the pullback. I never spend more than 20% per every buying opportunity, and I also sometimes sell back like 5% of big winners during high vol times in the same way Bif described, but I won’t do it during normal times. Eventually I’ll get it all in, but it’s a slow process and perhaps I get in at worse points than now, but again, I have no idea.

    I just hope the entry points I enter are relatively better than if someone just did like 5% of their cash for 20 straight days. Since I’m long term, I am not worried if we go down another 3% tomrorow. I’ll have made bad buys today if you want to look at that in technical terms, but I’m satisfied long term holding those positions.

  • superstars92

    • 365

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    @BIF said...

    By timing I don’t mean picking the absolute bottom but I do mean not buying at the top.

    Picture someone who took a $250K severance package in 2007 versus someone who took the same package in 2009. If both put it into the stock market the 2007 guy lost a third of his value within a year and now needs a 50% increase to get back to even. Where the guy who put $250K into the market in 2009 could have went into a coma for 10+ years and probably now had double or more (until 2 weeks ago). Timing and luck go hand in hand.

    Yea that’s like one reason why I wouldn’t put it all in at once. It’s tough though. If you don’t put it all in at once and the market goes up, you have fomo. However, it’s for those situations you described. Putting everything in Jan this year would have been disastrous.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Ive still got a long way to go before I’m at a profit.

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    Congrats guys, theDude, Awon, and Bif. You guys probably made a decent amount today. Selloffs are always bigger than up days so you guys did well.

    Thanks – it was almost a $10K day but most of it is still only a paper gain as I only closed out 20% of my SDOW position.

    No reason for me to think we are at the bottom yet but we are now 5% closer.

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea that’s like one reason why I wouldn’t put it all in at once. It’s tough though. If you don’t put it all in at once and the market goes up, you have fomo. However, it’s for those situations you described. Putting everything in Jan this year would have been disastrous.

    Agree – you have to step in gently using some dollar cost averaging but that is not what the mentality of the public investor is usually – you want to put that money to work for you and people don’t realize that can mean more than just throwing it all some stocks. I made that mistake myself Years ago once throwing 20+K into the market all in one day to watch it go up for 2 weeks then get cracked by a 10+% market adjustment.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Ive still got a long way to go before I’m at a profit.

    Same but at least I’m not as red.

    We’ve got like 17 more days. I should do an analysis on what typically happens when market goes down a ton one day. Is there more panic selling then next day or reflex buyers. Today I just carried over all my positions.

  • Awon1

    I’m down around 500 overall in trading, with today’s gain. I’m still down a lot on my long term stock from all time highs though.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Awon1 said...

    Same but at least I’m not as red.

    We’ve got like 17 more days. I should do an analysis on what typically happens when market goes down a ton one day. Is there more panic selling then next day or reflex buyers. Today I just carried over all my positions.

    I dont know about any of that. Im still sticking to my original post that we are going to blow through the lows this month. If it does it all this within 2 weeks (a huge if) we both will be just fine.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Pre market up because trump said with no basis that saudi’s gonna work out oil problem. Futures remain up after 6 million people file for unemployment blowing away estimates.

  • Awon1

    Wow I’m actually losing a lot on IV. It seems like VIX is down so my puts are losing on volatility and delta. Hope it goes crashing down.

    Trump really screwed my puts over with the oil announcement. I thought today would be red with the unemployment.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Pre market up because trump said with no basis that saudi’s gonna work out oil problem. Futures remain up after 6 million people file for unemployment blowing away estimates.

    That Nvidia stock you were trading back in the day is now like the next Amazon in a way. It went from 10 dollars or so to 250 now and 300 earlier and it’s up a lot on a day where market isn’t up as much. It’s also up for the year even though stock market is down 20%.

    I don’t think I’ll have the ability to locate a stock like that sadly.

  • ifthethunder

    @Awon1 said...

    Wow I’m actually losing a lot on IV. It seems like VIX is down so my puts are losing on volatility and delta. Hope it goes crashing down.

    Trump really screwed my puts over with the oil announcement. I thought today would be red with the unemployment.

    Also, you’re losing theta. The higher the implied vol. is, the higher your theta is too. So even a sideways day will hurt you. It’s tough to make money on options when I.V. gets this high. You need expert timing…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmfudW7rbG0
    ~

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Yeah things are looking pretty bleak right now im right back to where i was tuesday. Still cant believe the market fell for trumps “announcement”. Maybe fell is the wrong word there lol. Im not quite sure how the economy immediate bounceback camp is seemingly winning at the moment.

  • Awon1

    @ifthethunder said...

    Also, you’re losing theta. The higher the implied vol. is, the higher your theta is too. So even a sideways day will hurt you. It’s tough to make money on options when I.V. gets this high. You need expert timing…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmfudW7rbG0
    ~

    Yea lost on every Greek lol.

    Sad thing is that part of the money I used for these options and SDOW was originally to buy Johnson and Johnson and Costco, both of whom have been great last 2 days now. So I’m not only losing on the options but I’m also losing out on the potential gains from trades I would have originally done.

    But I’m here to make 4x so let’s go! Crash tomorrow please I still believe. No one wants to hold over the weekend right?

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Well that is the thought process im going with. I fully expect some type of retraction regarding cutting back oil production. Hes a pathological liar. Russia came out and said there were no talks w saudi arabia. But trump said they were to cut back 10 million maybe 15 million. Ill assume he meant barrels per day. In 2019 combined, saudi arabia and russia combined produced 23 million barrels a day. So trump is trying to convince the world they are going to agree to cut back 50% or more from THOSE levels (not sure what the increased production has been lately). LOL at that.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Additionally there has been no guidance provided to states regarding covid related unemployment. You can go on various states’ websites to learn that is the case. Additionally loans/aid to small businesses also has no guidance https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-latest-updates.html.

    In addition there is supposed to be an irs portal developed for people to enter banking info for the one time payments if they dont have bank info on file. Otherwise you are looking at months before receiving a check. Im guessing they will bungle that up as well and quite frankly i fully expect to never see any money personally. If i do ill be shocked.

    What im trying to get at is this is a complete mess. If the media brings this to the attention of the general public it could cause some level of panic.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Sorry for the third post but just kind of thinking out loud here….what about mortgage payments and commercial real estate? Could that system collapse? Not trying to be doomsday here but if people and businesses dont have money to pay their monthly real estate loans, what happens to the banks then? So far there hasnt been much talk about the real estate side of things. Ill yry to read up some to get some information.

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