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  • 2Slik

    I’d be shocked if a lot of DFS pros aren’t dipping their toes into the stock market right now. A lot of contrarian plays out there.

  • superstars92

    • 365

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    • Ranked #63

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thedude404 said...

    Sorry for the third post but just kind of thinking out loud here….what about mortgage payments and commercial real estate? Could that system collapse? Not trying to be doomsday here but if people and businesses dont have money to pay their monthly real estate loans, what happens to the banks then? So far there hasnt been much talk about the real estate side of things. Ill yry to read up some to get some information.

    Yea credit, housing/mortgage, oil, and bonds/Treasuries….that’s what can drive the selloff to 180 imo (some combination of that). I don’t think cornavirus is enough to drive it to 180, but I also can’t predict the future so I don’t know. That’s just my thinking that we need at least a few more other catalysts.

  • Awon1

    Nice call on IWM. That was the right way to go. Wish I put it all into IWM instead of some in SPY.

  • Awon1

    Guys us bears might be done for…

  • Awon1

    You guys think I should sell everything for a loss or just let it ride and lose probably all of it by 4/17?

    Futures are up to 258 almost. Market just isn’t going down…

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    I dont think anyone is going to tell you what to do.

  • whoisjohngalt420

    Junk Silver > Stocks

  • Awon1

    Well I guess we all lost except long term stock holders who bought at the bottom.

    Got out yesterday at the close. Lost 3k of my 5k. Lost another 1.5k prior to that.

    So down 4.5k overall and I’m done with trading.

    My long term stock account made back a lot of losses but that had lost previously during the crash so it wasn’t like I’m net positive in that regard. But at least that’s a good sign, better than nothing.

  • superstars92

    • 365

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    • Ranked #63

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    Wow did everyone just give up on short term trading?

    You know if I was doing short term trading, this is actually when I would buy puts – when everyone’s greedy thinking the market only goes up and the Fed can do no wrong. Fed is even buying junk ETFs now which is going to support the credit market, something pretty unprecedented. However, that’s why puts here are better than puts at 220 imo.

    You gotta be contrarian in trading. Fearful when others are greedy. Greedy when others are fearful. It’s Buffett’s old line but it actually applies more to trading than long term investing.

    Then again, short term trading has so much variance (target is probably only around 53% or so) that it’s super hard to really do well in long term, especially with the spreads you pay on options. That’s why the longer term strategy is easier imo. Short term trading is probably 3x harder than DFS.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Pretty much. My options have been worthless for a while. Every once in a while i have to remind myself not to trade options with a small loss. Although there is still an outside chance we could still test the lows by the end of April, that is meaningless to me at this point.

  • 2Slik

    So far I’ve done pretty good. +15% as a novice. My best, UBER which doubled.

    One of the more important tips I like to consider myself is do I like the product.

    General theories.
    Companies that despite the downturn Americans will clinch to to their death, like cellular service.
    Food, which I would venture to say is consumed even moreso. Particularly the cheap stuff
    Tech, that would be consumed like social media and essential hardware for working from home
    Paper Goods, the toilet paper craze could make for a good earnings report at just the right time in the next couple months.

    The hardcore brokers know balance sheets and ratios. I just use 3 month and 3 year points, consider consumption, buy well known stocks, and go from there.

    If you want to be more risky if you find stocks that have come down to 25% like the cruise lines do some critical thinking. I considered in this case (maybe foolishly) that the value in the ships alone was 4 times the cap of the stock so I bought in on some.

    I have 30 stocks now and we’ll see what happens. The money I invested is money that I had been saving to buy an investment property, which I want nothing to do with now. One thing that was once told to me is that if the market goes to zero, the only thing that will have value is food, shelter, and guns. Cash will be nothing but a fancy piece of paper.

    Again, I have no expertise just thoughts in times of which we have no sports to watch.

  • Awon1

    I’m glad I gave up options trading with just my loss. All my stocks have made back a ton. All those stocks I got at the bottom like Amazon are up. Amazon is at all time high today!

    It’s just too bad very little of my portfolio I got at the bottom. Most of it is stocks I just kept on the way down and never sold.

  • Awon1

    How high do you think we can get? We have to drop off somewhere right? Where do you think that is?

    I do agree with the statement from a few weeks ago that 220 was probably long term bottom now. I’m just wondering if we revisit 250 or not.

  • Jaguar22

    @Awon1 said...

    How high do you think we can get? We have to drop off somewhere right? Where do you think that is?

    I do agree with the statement from a few weeks ago that 220 was probably long term bottom now. I’m just wondering if we revisit 250 or not.

    Invest now im think 4th quater major comdback

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Jaguar22 said...

    Invest now im think 4th quater major comdback

    Based on what?

  • Jaguar22

    @thedude404 said...

    Based on what?

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Whenever im down and out i kust go to wallstreetbets on reddit. Reading about someone losing 700k on SPY puts puts things in perspective.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Whenever im down and out i kust go to wallstreetbets on reddit. Reading about someone losing 700k on SPY puts puts things in perspective.

    But that person was probably a multi-millionaire though to begin with so he probably doesn’t feel as bad.

    I honestly suck at trading. I used to post there too but I realized no one there actually teaches trading. Everyone just gambles. I wish someone could teach me things like option pricing and volatility skew for example.

  • Awon1

    With that said, I couldn’t help myself and bought 2 SPY 260 May monthly expiration Puts.

    If anything I can use that as a hedge for my long stock.

  • Awon1

    @thedude404 said...

    Whenever im down and out i kust go to wallstreetbets on reddit. Reading about someone losing 700k on SPY puts puts things in perspective.

    You mean like this guy? In only like 3 days too.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/g5i3mo/lost_life_savings_in_the_market_today_not_sure/

    More detail about his trade.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/g64ju6/one_of_us/fo7in56/?context=3

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