INDUSTRY FORUM

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  • Agoraphobia

    Given today’s conditions, what is less difficult to beat for a sustainable profit: DFS or betting on sports?

  • LuckyLuc3434

    DFS without a doubt, even with the additional rake. DFS you’re playing against other people who may or may not know what they’re doing, sports betting is a pretty efficient market – very difficult to find an edge sports betting on any major sport

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    Skill sets seem a bit difference, but probably depends on the rake/vig, no?

  • Agoraphobia

    @MTro86 said...

    Skill sets seem a bit difference, but probably depends on the rake/vig, no?

    How different, though? The top DFS guys use predictive analytics to gain an edge, and I’m assuming sharp sports bettors do the same thing.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    Yeah, but what I meant is that you’re looking for different things (team level vs individual matchups), although I guess there are enough player props these days where it could be the same. Either way, it depends on rake/vig.

  • depalma13

    The correct answer is horse racing.

  • jayzee666

    @depalma13 said...

    The correct answer is horse racing.

    I was playing the DFS Cornhole tournament yesterday and the team I loaded up on got shitface drunk and threw up all over the beanbags. Another sport I have cursed miserably!!

  • jimmyquinella

    • Blogger of the Month

    @depalma13 said...

    The correct answer is horse racing.

    ^^^^

    Like all gambling fields, the best handicappers and sports bettors I have hung with over the 20+ years tend to work five times as hard and have almost perfect bankroll management.

    There are no shortcuts.

  • timusbr

    Sports betting hands down

    DFS need some help. Rakes are outragious, providers still trying to make contests pay out a big memorable figure for first (for advertising purpose), and trying to pay to the 25th percentile. making the bottom payout 1.5x and you need to finish in 10th place out of 30K entries to get 10x.

    maybe if I was a cash player instead of Gpp, I could support DFS as a long term sustainable growth. But I keep thinking…picking 6 or more players on a slate with different teams to win .9 in a H2H or playing a sportsbook against the point spread on 1 game at -110.

    1 game is much easier than multiple players and I am not competing against others who are choosing. All that said, I enjoy DFS much much more. I still use both but primarily go for DFS.

  • Shadetree42

    DFS is easier. Maybe 1% of all serious sports bettors make money long-term.

  • jmo26

    @timusbr said...

    DFS need some help. Rakes are outragious, providers still trying to make contests pay out a big memorable figure for first (for advertising purpose), and trying to pay to the 25th percentile. making the bottom payout 1.5x and you need to finish in 10th place out of 30K entries to get 10x.

    I’d still say DFS, but it’s getting much closer because of the above.

  • jmo26

    @Shadetree42 said...

    DFS is easier. Maybe 1% of all serious sports bettors make money long-term.

    What do you think the % is for DFS?

  • kittymanportrait

    We don’t have to speculate because Draftkings discloses that (https://www.draftkings.com/average-results). You can access this page by clicking on any contest and then clicking “average results” in the bottom left corner. Over the last 7 days, 14% are net winners and over the last 30 days, 12% are net winners. Most likely a majority of the “net winners” are barely above breaking even, as we can see that 1% take home a whopping 44-46% of all winnings, depending on the length of the sample examined. Interestingly, the wealthiest 1% of Americans hold about 38% of all privately held American wealth, a figure which very closely mirrors the winnings distribution on Draftkings.
    The question of whether DFS or sports betting is easier depends on how you get your money in. If you take advantage of beginner and intermediate contests for as long as possible on the larger sites, and take advantage of smaller sites with weaker competition like Fanpicks or even Yahoo, and take advantage of overlay, which can still be found almost nightly on both, then DFS is generally easier.
    However, in sports betting there is an even easier way to make money if you have sufficient bankroll. You can simply tail a proven winner whose results have been tracked by a third party for the cost of a subscription. Typically they even do the math for you to let you know how much you need to be wagering to make up for the cost of the subscription. Warren Sharp comes to mind as a professional sports bettor with a long-standing track record of positive ROI who is often featured right here on Rotogrinders. Luca Fury is another professional gambler who offered a betting service for MMA that similarly had a long-standing record of positive ROI, although he recently retired to pursue investments in crypo ICO’s.
    Thus, because there are third-party-tracked services that one can tail, one would have to conclude that betting is easier since the only skill that entails is jumping on a line within moments after the play is communicated from the professional to the subscribers. But if you actually had to do all of the work yourself, then I think DFS is much easier since, like LuckyLuc said above, there are more bad players than bad sportsbooks, and because there are still situations like overlay that put the odds in favor of the player.

  • Tstern615

    If this gets passed will College DFS return?

  • db730

    RotoGrinders Media Director

    • 838

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    Unfortunately no…most state DFS laws that regulate fantasy sports strictly prohibit College Sports. Maybe something similar can be created on gambling platform….that mimics it (assuming the gambling laws allow college sports & I suspect they will), but almost certainly not going to see it hosted on the DFS platform

  • Tstern615

    oh well……………back to season long college football.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @db730 said...

    Unfortunately no…most state DFS laws that regulate fantasy sports strictly prohibit College Sports. Maybe something similar can be created on gambling platform….that mimics it (assuming the gambling laws allow college sports & I suspect they will), but almost certainly not going to see it hosted on the DFS platform

    Seems like something that could pretty easily be changed if sports betting were made legal on college sports and the sites had the smallest amount of ambition to bring back the DFS version. The only thing the NCAA had to stand on was money being “gambled” on amateur athletes and how it could affect the integrity of their games (stupid point considering the small dollars in college DFS but one they still made). But if sports betting is deemed legal on college sports, there is many millions more wagered there than there ever would be on college DFS. At that point, the NCAA’s argument against DFS would essentially be moot.

    The DFS laws in place on college sports are only there because DraftKings and FanDuel rolled over on college sports and did not want to fight the NCAA for what amounted to a miniscule portion of their overall product. College sports were essentially collateral damage for DFS regulations to move forward more smoothly. Now would the NCAA still fight college DFS? For one of the most hypocritical organizations out there, it certainly is possible. But I just do not see what they would have to gain. At that point they should just embrace the amount of money that legal gambling would make their organization and the universities that are apart of it. Just my opinion.

  • Tstern615

    So how does h2h sports get to offer College Basketball and Football for money?

  • kantiger77

    FanPicks offers it too. Some states, like mine, don’t have any regulation whatsoever.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Tstern615 said...

    So how does h2h sports get to offer College Basketball and Football for money?

    Offering college sports DFS is only illegal in the states that have laws on the books specifically stating no DFS on amateur sports. DraftKings and FanDuel made an agreement with the NCAA though to not offer college DFS at all.

    Now I do think h2h and FanPicks are offering it in states they shouldn’t be, but those sites are so small and seem to not care, and will just fly under the radar. That being said. I don’t really trust my money on those sites.

  • Tstern615

    h2h sports can’t be that small – I hear their reps and commercials on SiriusXm

  • Lathum

    @Tstern615 said...

    h2h sports can’t be that small – I hear their reps and commercials on SiriusXm

    My 4 year old has enough money to take out an ad on Sirius, it isn’t really that expensive.

  • KindGuy

    @Lathum said...

    My 4 year old has enough money to take out an ad on Sirius, it isn’t really that expensive.

    LOL

  • Lathum

    @elementasrat said...

    LOL

    and she has crappy bankroll management!

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