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  • BPhillips44

    I must be a slow learner but I think I finally have figured out how to become more successful.

    For years, I have played $12 a night, a $2 GPP and either a $10 50/50 or H2H. This was a disaster.

    For the most part, I put up decent numbers on a nightly basis but rarely won (40-45% in cash games, alot of minimum cash in GPPS). That’s a recipe for losing money fast! The most frustrating thing is that when I had a good cash game night, I was only winning $8 a night.

    One night, I decided to enter a 10 man and had a good night and ended up winning $45. A light bulb clicked and I realized how dumb I have been for 4 years! My percentage of cashing is probably the same in cash games, except I win $17 to $35 bucks on a winning night instead of $8. That offsets the losing nights a lot better! Throw in some decent GPP nights here and there and all of a sudden I am finding some success.

    I’m sure most people are like DUH, but thought I would share in case someone is stuck in a rut like I was.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    You weren’t doing it wrong in the first place.
    Mind you, by this time, after four years you’ll be coming into a space where you will learn where you are making your money. Maybe you are just good at 4-10 man comps.
    But, the point here is you weren’t doing it wrong. Playing small field tournys is always a good way to play, but replacing it with your dbl up’s is the wrong thing to do.
    Maybe you want to increase your nightly bankroll by $8-10 and add in small fields. Whatever you do though, don’t stop what you were doing.

    DFS isn’t about how much you’re winning, it’s about how little you’re losing. Every single person takes losses, making a plan around anything other than the fact you’re going to lose is, well, wrong. Being successful is over-time putting yourself in a situation to keep playing, or never depositing, or losing. If people were able to keep playing after winning a ton of money, than there wouldn’t be the issue of losing it, which happens every day to people who weren’t able to manage their bankroll. You seem to have pretty good bankroll management, you’ve got everything right except the part about results, which is a lot more than just making sure two of the five boxes are checked.

    DFS meta changes all the time. Anyone can tell you right now scoring is up this season and the balanced cash build is no longer relevant when scoring is at an all time high (ceiling).

    So yeah, maybe your just building cards wrong, but you were playing DFS correctly. Just because the meta has changed this year doesn’t mean gambling basics have.

    The way you were playing is gambling basics, can’t fight those. Not even Phil Ivey wins more than like 65% of the time. It’s not about how much you win, it’s about how you little you lose. Don’t get caught up in what you’re (not) winning, because that’s probably a reason as to why you’ve been losing.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    ^
    I think stating that as fact is folly.
    Cash games do not make sense for all players, and I can say that, because I’m someone that realized playing cash was just a way to slowly lose money.

    To me, the decision to play Cash games is about the easiest decision you can make in DFS, because there’s a set percentage you need to be winning to be profitable. After a large sample size, if you are not exceeding that number, there is little reason to continue.

    With the rise in lineup providers, optimizers, and just a generally more knowledgeable player base, I would wager that players moving away from cash games is closer to the norm than an exception.

    Now having said that, I also don’t know if the OP will maintain his recent success in other games, but I do think it seems like a reasoned decision to not bother with cash games. Some people thrive on making cash lineups, and they win at the clip needed to maintain profitability in those games, if you’re lucky enough to be one of those players then that’s awesome (I mean that sincerely) but that’s not the case for everybody…and really, i’d imagine for most players all cash is, is losing money slower, with most not even bothering to do the math to realize that it’s a consistent losing proposition because they heard playing such games was the “smart” thing to do.

  • bigez952

    I think the moral of the story is there is no such thing as “the right way to do things”. With the commission structures in place by the sites only 10-15% of users will be profitable every season. So what is right for someone obviously can’t work for everyone with how the system is set up to only allow for a small % of long term winners.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    I agree that no one way works for everyone, but there’s gambling basics, and then there’s making mistakes. A basics 101 for gambling/DFS is cash games/GPP 80/20. If you are failing at that then chances are it’s not the 80/20 that’s wrong, it’s you. The only people who should operate outside of this are folks who have such a supreme knowledge of DFS/gambling that they make more money in GPP by utilizing their bankroll size and knowledge edge, because I agree cash is getting harder, but it’s also manageable with adaptation.

    And I’m not some high and mighty, I struggle with stuff every day as well, but there’s set in stone laws for every-day players like 80/20, and if that’s not working you’re either really really good, or just missing a couple steps along the way.

  • lpdev

    OP – “I put up decent numbers on a nightly basis but rarely won (40-45% in cash games, alot of minimum cash in GPPS). That’s a recipe for losing money fast!”
    sirrobert6-“Whatever you do though, don’t stop what you were doing.”
    sirrobert6-“It’s not about how much you win, it’s about how you little you lose.”
    sirrobert6-“A basics 101 for gambling/DFS is cash games/GPP 80/20. If you are failing at that then chances are it’s not the 80/20 that’s wrong, it’s you.”

    I sincerely hope this is an elaborate troll job because that’s the worst advice and most ignorant stance I’ve ever heard.

  • DFSx42

    @Robbert i’m actually in midst of writing up a lengthy piece to destroy the 80/20 × 10% myth once and for all. Doing it with monte carlo too so it’s not simply my word vs group think. As a poker player that number never sat well with me and when I did the math, sure enough it doesn’t add up. In a vacuum, it’s a good guideline for people who otherwise weren’t using guidelines and just randomly entering stuff. It’s not good bankroll management nor a decent a replacement for it – rather better than :totally freeball it” which is what most people who don’t follow 80/20 do – it’s like wearing flip flops to a black tie event – not ideal but better than going barefoot.

    @Phillips there are many different paths to dfs and each and every one of us have our own strengths and weaknesses. For example, with some sports I excel at cash, others mme, others single entry. You really got to think about what kind of lineups you naturally produce and then find games that are receptive to that style. Perhaps your lineups were more highly correlated than an optimal cash lineup so when one part did well so would the others and you had fewer top half finishes than to be expected but a few more top 20% instead.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @lpdev said...

    I sincerely hope this is an elaborate troll job because that’s the worst advice and most ignorant stance I’ve ever heard.

    If you are playing 80/20 and losing, it’s not the 80/20 fault.
    That’s what he shouldn’t stop doing. He shouldn’t stop the 80/20.
    He should, however, stop whatever is causing him to lose, which isn’t the 80/20, which is what he is suggesting is the sole issue for his losses.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @DFSx42 said...

    @Robbert i’m actually in midst of writing up a lengthy piece to destroy the 80/20 × 10% myth once and for all. Doing it with monte carlo too so it’s not simply my word vs group think. As a poker player that number never sat well with me and when I did the math, sure enough it doesn’t add up. In a vacuum, it’s a good guideline for people who otherwise weren’t using guidelines and just randomly entering stuff. It’s not good bankroll management nor a decent a replacement for it – rather better than :totally freeball it” which is what most people who don’t follow 80/20 do – it’s like wearing flip flops to a black tie event – not ideal but better than going barefoot.

    the only counter I would have to that is, going with your metaphor, the issue isn’t that you’re wearing flip flops, the issue is that you think you deserve to be in a super nice party where you should really be on the beach at a bonfire. Keep wearing flip flops, and go to parties you deserve to be in. Very few people actually deserve to be in a super, high-class party, and specifically for this conversation, if someone is only just starting to learn what makes them successful, chances are they shouldn’t be trying to get into these high class events, and focus on wearing flip flops first before they try to learn how to tie a tie.

    If you’re gonna wear flip flops, go to the beach.
    If you’re not going to the beach, consider if you have the ability to party hard enough, because that’s what you’ll need to do. Most people only have the ability to wear flip flops, otherwise it’s unsustainable success.

    (I don’t literally mean YOU, but you as in conversation, whoever the imaginary person is lol).

    Genuine good luck with the paper though, I’ve always hated the 80/20 as well, but doesn’t mean it isn’t correct.

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    I should state, there is wiggle room obviously, depending on the slate and skills, but generally speaking the idea is to play at the very least 2/3rd of your night roll in cash.

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