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  • thedkexperience

    I was surprised to see that there was not a best ball thread for discussion. Assuming the mods have no issue with one being created, I may as well kick things off.

    The biggest takeaway I have from my earliest DK BB drafts is that Jameis Winston is wildly under valued this year. In BB in particular I don’t see any legit argument for going QB early. There are a lot of reasonably safe bets for 4000 yards going at QB3 prices between Winston, Goff, and Roethlisberger. There are also plenty of guys with high week to week upside like Daniel Jones and Fitzmagic available late.

    Are you guys really leaning into QB late as a strategy this year too?

  • thedkexperience

    @Smallchimp said...

    You’re not accounting for the fact that you’re getting your starting lineup decided for you after the fact. RBs drafted in the 1st/2nd aren’t always your top RB week-by-week, between a lull performance by the first round RB and a great performance by a later round RB, you can end up with that 1.XX RB on the bench. It’s less likely a TE like Kelce/Kittle/Waller ends up benched due to another TE passing them

    No, but it’s more likely you have an ill timed 3 from Waller on a bad week and your backup gets 1 target.

    Much higher floor just spamming 3 mid level guys with no coaching involved.

  • thedkexperience

    @Mccurds13 said...

    I completely agree with this. In a standard redraft start sit league I go RB RB in the first 2 rounds virtually every time because it’s so key to have guys you can start there confidently. But in best ball, most of my teams are zero RB or hero RB, and Kelce is easily my most popular first round pick because he gives you such a huge advantage over most teams at TE, plus it allows me to just grab another one in round 15 or so and be done at that position. Not needing to spend a pick on a third TE allows me to take another shot on a upside handcuff RB, or a pass catching one with an OK floor.

    With all due respect I don’t think there is a word in this post I agree with.

    Seriously, even the season long part. Haha. Everything you do, and I’m sure you’ve won plenty like all of us, is the 100% polar opposite of how I play both regular and BB.

  • thedkexperience

    Anyway, I despite my half dozen replies the reason I popped in here today was … it’s a James Robinson party!

  • Smallchimp

    @thedkexperience said...

    No, but it’s more likely you have an ill timed 3 from Waller on a bad week and your backup gets 1 target.

    Much higher floor just spamming 3 mid level guys with no coaching involved.

    I don’t know that I agree. Waller had 5 weeks outside of the top 12 (with 6 weeks in the top 3) and Kelce had 2 weeks outside of the top 12 including a week out (and 8 weeks in the top 3). Looking at midrange guys, someone like Fant had 9 weeks outside of the top 12 (and only 2 weeks in the top 3), Logan Thomas had 7 weeks outside of the top 12 (and 2 top 3 finishes), Robert Tonyan had 6 weeks outside the top 12 (and only 2 top 3 weeks).

    I get the principle, you’re letting your best performance out of a few mid-level guys end up the one that gets started. It might be a higher floor than if you had an early TE and no one until super late. But I don’t think that’s the strategy. You take one of the high-end TE that typically doesn’t have dud weeks and you know they’re going to be the starter essentially every week. As much as there might be a small risk of the early TE busting in a week, the probability for a ceiling feels higher with those guys and the floor is likely still higher than a grab bag of mid-range guys. You probably get >=8 points every week with three average guys, but nailing a 20 point week with 3 random picks seems a lot less likely. Taking someone like Kelce or Waller means you know you’re getting that kind of output multiple times a season as a baseline.

  • thedkexperience

    @Smallchimp said...

    I don’t know that I agree. Waller had 5 weeks outside of the top 12 (with 6 weeks in the top 3) and Kelce had 2 weeks outside of the top 12 including a week out (and 8 weeks in the top 3). Looking at midrange guys, someone like Fant had 9 weeks outside of the top 12 (and only 2 weeks in the top 3), Logan Thomas had 7 weeks outside of the top 12 (and 2 top 3 finishes), Robert Tonyan had 6 weeks outside the top 12 (and only 2 top 3 weeks).

    I get the principle, you’re letting your best performance out of a few mid-level guys end up the one that gets started. It might be a higher floor than if you had an early TE and no one until super late. But I don’t think that’s the strategy. You take one of the high-end TE that typically doesn’t have dud weeks and you know they’re going to be the starter essentially every week. As much as there might be a small risk of the early TE busting in a week, the probability for a ceiling feels higher with those guys and the floor is likely still higher than a grab bag of mid-range guys. You probably get >=8 points every week with three average guys, but nailing a 20 point week with 3 random picks seems a lot less likely. Taking someone like Kelce or Waller means you know you’re getting that kind of output multiple times a season as a baseline.

    I think the biggest difference is where we expect to get our points from. I usually go RB, RB, RB to start my drafts and ending them with 7 or 8 is common. I want my flex filled by a RB every week if possible and I do my best to achieve that result.

    Let’s say we get 70 points from both RBs, Flex and the TE slot. I want 20, 20, 20 and 10. Getting 8-12 points a week from a low cost pupu platter of Gesieki, Gronk and Henry (or Ertz, Jonnu, Ebron, Engram and like 6 others) is more than enough for me.

    I just don’t think there are enough great WRs to consistently rely on any of them to be a flex even though they will bubble up from time to time.

    The only TE I believe can consistently score 20 was prime Gronk. Kelce is an absolute monster but he’s not prime Gronk. One more crazy season and I’ll relent but I can’t pay for that to happen again. Waller and Kittle are great players but I don’t like them much more than some of the mid level guys. Kittle gets hurt and has QB issues. Waller only did it once. Stuff like that scares me in rounds 2 or 3.

  • Smallchimp

    > I want my flex filled by an RB every week if possible, and I do my best to achieve that result.

    Yeah, that’s probably where we differ. Honestly, as long as I have 2 starting caliber RB performances, that’s enough. I’m more than happy having a WR in the flex; it’s the position that’s most prone to single-play explosions. I get the value of having 4 bellcow-adjacent RBs, but I don’t think that dwelling on a position you only need two of is as valuable when there’s less differentiation between players once you leave the top-tier guys.

    > I just don’t think there are enough great WRs to consistently rely on any of them to be a flex even though they will bubble up from time to time.

    You don’t need to rely on them. Blow-up weeks are caught automatically. All you need to do is take those upside guys that get tons of air yards and downfield shots.

    > The only TE I believe can consistently score 20 was prime Gronk

    Eh, Kelce and Waller both have the usage that eclipses everything but nuclear performances. Even if the 20 FP number is high (I’m fine with it), the point is that their weekly performance will be higher than great weeks out of other TEs.

    ___

    I’m not super worried about RBs in a format with roster management done for you. As much as having the rare 25 points a week potential at RB matters, the majority of points should be coming from the WRs on your roster because their usage is just so much more valuable on a per touch basis. Taking TE, RB, and RB to start feels right imo.

  • thedkexperience

    I just got Robinson at 5.7 if anyone was wondering.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @thedkexperience said...

    I just got Robinson at 5.7 if anyone was wondering.

    Gonna need to draft another soon, as my last had Etienne from this weekend lol Sucks because RB was already thin for me. And I’m not the “zero RB” guy either. Some drafts have gone weird this year for sure.

  • Offthechain76

    Anyone know how to export best ball drafts that are already finished to Excel? Would like to see the percentages of players I already drafted. I know the best ball website I used to use that got bought out showed you your players on a separate page and how many teams they were on. I wish draftkings would do this as well.

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    Gonna need to draft another soon, as my last had Etienne from this weekend lol Sucks because RB was already thin for me. And I’m not the “zero RB” guy either. Some drafts have gone weird this year for sure.

    I had a VERY weird draft yesterday. I ended up with a Tampa stack (Brady-Brown-Gronk-Lenny-Ronny) which isn’t something I generally do, but what was weird about it was that nearly every starting QB was gone by the 14th round. All of them. I had to panic take Goff and Jones. All that was left after that was Wentz and a few rookies. They all got gobbled up shortly thereafter.

  • thedkexperience

    @Offthechain76 said...

    Anyone know how to export best ball drafts that are already finished to Excel? Would like to see the percentages of players I already drafted. I know the best ball website I used to use that got bought out showed you your players on a separate page and how many teams they were on. I wish draftkings would do this as well.

    Either I replied to you yesterday on Reddit in agreement or someone else said literally the exact same thing to me yesterday. I agree completely. No idea how to do it.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @thedkexperience said...

    I had a VERY weird draft yesterday. I ended up with a Tampa stack (Brady-Brown-Gronk-Lenny-Ronny) which isn’t something I generally do, but what was weird about it was that nearly every starting QB was gone by the 14th round. All of them. I had to panic take Goff and Jones. All that was left after that was Wentz and a few rookies. They all got gobbled up shortly thereafter.

    I was getting shaken down at TE. Feels like it started becoming season long, filling positions. Missed on like 3 in a row (I mean some were likely next TE drafted but was surprised when).

    My problem has been week 7 byes. Seems like my whole team has it then!!!

  • yisman

    running out of time. I haven’t done any best ball. After what happened last year, I’d rather not do any, but we’ll see. I have a couple of tickets I think, from satellites a while ago.

    8/25 afternoon:

    $6 is 9.26% (a re-gen, I think)
    $20 is 57.34%
    $555 is 33.38%

    I would imagine the 555 overlays but I don’t think I’m willing to do a best ball with a bunch of sharks given I have little idea of what I’m doing.

  • thedkexperience

    @yisman said...

    running out of time. I haven’t done any best ball. After what happened last year, I’d rather not do any, but we’ll see. I have a couple of tickets I think, from satellites a while ago.

    8/25 afternoon:

    $6 is 9.26% (a re-gen, I think)
    $20 is 57.34%
    $555 is 33.38%

    I would imagine the 555 overlays but I don’t think I’m willing to do a best ball with a bunch of sharks given I have little idea of what I’m doing.

    It’s really not as hard as people make it sound. Just use your regular fantasy football strategy but sprinkle in an extra QB and TE for depth.

    Just keep in mind that football in December looks nothing like football in September so just try to keep “if X happens then Y player will become insanely valuable”.

    This is exactly why I kept pairing Etienne and Robison and every place I take Lenny I also take Jones.

    Personally I don’t think DFS strategies for Best Ball are as wise as some other folks believe but that’s why they play the games.

  • Supersharpie

    PSA: Don’t draft drunk.

    Last night I missed picks in a $5 and a $20 and ended with the “Etienne bomb” in both!

  • marker0357

    Took Watkins in the 15th but still feel dirty about it.

  • Rickytango13

    Just drafted my favorite milly lineup thus far. Boom or bust but it has got potential

    Stafford/Jones

    Zeke/hunt/Dillon/Dam Williams/X Jones/K hill

    Diggs/woods/kupp/Davis/Samuel/Moore/mvs/slayton/Jackson/toney

    Tonyan/Hooper

  • Supersharpie

    What is going on with the $5 contest? Since about 10:00 p.m. eastern time on 8/26 I have been getting an error message (“Cannot create a new contest for this Tournament”) when trying to enter, despite the fact that there are still several hundred openings. This seems a little suspicious. Who is DK holding these slots for?

  • Supersharpie

    @yisman said...

    running out of time. I haven’t done any best ball. After what happened last year, I’d rather not do any, but we’ll see. I have a couple of tickets I think, from satellites a while ago.

    8/25 afternoon:

    $6 is 9.26% (a re-gen, I think)
    $20 is 57.34%
    $555 is 33.38%

    I would imagine the 555 overlays but I don’t think I’m willing to do a best ball with a bunch of sharks given I have little idea of what I’m doing.

    Out of curiosity, what happened last year? As a novice Best Baller I experienced a net profit.

  • yisman

    @Supersharpie said...

    Out of curiosity, what happened last year? As a novice Best Baller I experienced a net profit.

    I did a lot of drafts and got like one cash. A second or third. Bunch of 4th places.

    A whole bunch of $3 and $20 for me last year.

    I made a mistake not drafting Logan Thomas and I also had brutal injury luck. Lost my first round RBs in so many of my drafts.

    Too much Saquon I remember, when I should’ve split the exposure between him and Zeke.

  • dctempest

    Weeks 7 and 9 seem particularly brutal this year for best ball with so many strong offensive teams/players on byes those weeks. The Bills, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, and Chargers in week 7. Seahawks, Bucs, and Washington week 9. Has anyone else noticed this during their draftor shortly thereafter as you assess your results? How have you handled this? Have you been conscious of this, or simply stick with your plan regardless of the potential for a bunch of donuts for paticular positions. Personally I like players on good teams that I know will move the ball and score, and staying away from even elite players on weak teams I think will struggle – particularly those with shaky olines, and QB play. That’s created my dilemma on those two weeks in particular. Ultimately I’ve been leaning toward picking the best players left regardless of bye, but conscious enough to plug some holes in later rounds so I’m not getting a bunch of zeros.

  • thedkexperience

    @dctempest said...

    Weeks 7 and 9 seem particularly brutal this year for best ball with so many strong offensive teams/players on byes those weeks. The Bills, Cowboys, Vikings, Steelers, and Chargers in week 7. Seahawks, Bucs, and Washington week 9. Has anyone else noticed this during their draftor shortly thereafter as you assess your results? How have you handled this? Have you been conscious of this, or simply stick with your plan regardless of the potential for a bunch of donuts for paticular positions. Personally I like players on good teams that I know will move the ball and score, and staying away from even elite players on weak teams I think will struggle – particularly those with shaky olines, and QB play. That’s created my dilemma on those two weeks in particular. Ultimately I’ve been leaning toward picking the best players left regardless of bye, but conscious enough to plug some holes in later rounds so I’m not getting a bunch of zeros.

    Aside from that one time I noticed way too late all 3 of my TEs had the same bye week, necessitating a 4th TE, it hasn’t been that bad for me. I also draft a lot more RBs than most people so it’s a situation where I tend to have more wiggle room as the draft goes on to ignore bye weeks then a lot of people.

  • Stangs13

    I would agree, I pretty much ignore them except QB and TE where I roster far fewer players.

  • briangalone

    • 847

      RG Overall Ranking

    @thedkexperience said...

    I was surprised to see that there was not a best ball thread for discussion. Assuming the mods have no issue with one being created, I may as well kick things off.

    The biggest takeaway I have from my earliest DK BB drafts is that Jameis Winston is wildly under valued this year. In BB in particular I don’t see any legit argument for going QB early. There are a lot of reasonably safe bets for 4000 yards going at QB3 prices between Winston, Goff, and Roethlisberger. There are also plenty of guys with high week to week upside like Daniel Jones and Fitzmagic available late.

    Are you guys really leaning into QB late as a strategy this year too?

    v

  • marker0357

    QB – Allen/Stafford/Jones
    RB – Taylor/Montgomery/Robinson/Gordon/Mattison/Williams
    WR – Hopkins/Smith-Schuster/Hardman/Ruggs/Watkins/Slayton/Strachan/Atwell
    TE – Smith/Doyle/Howard

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