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  • colinwdrew

    • 399

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2020 DraftKings FHWC Champion

    • 2021 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    So DK tweeted out millionaire maker ownership here http://playbook.draftkings.com/nfl/millionaire-maker-percent-owned-week-3/ which as of 230pm still includes ownership data for games that have not yet started. IMO this is a big leak and should never happen. It also seems like something that your average analyst should probably not have access too, and able to tell his buddies who is owned and who the best players have. Hey did you know that CSURAM has Randall Cobb going late? Given that they can access the macro results it seems probable they can access specific users during and/or before contests start.

    They definitely should no be sharing it publicly, if they’re going to do it just list the full rosters in the contest and call it a day.

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    • Last Updated 4 years ago
  • letterj007

    https://twitter.com/draftcheat/status/651186275282653184

    I think he’s a pretty good player.

  • reztes757

    2013 DD BLB Finalist (x2)

    • 214

      RG Overall Ranking

    @headChopper said...

    BeepImaJeep won 4 seats in 4 days.
    DFS happens

    Weren’t those 60 person contests that he had 5 entries in or were they bigger qualifiers?

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @wcuball29 said...

    Are you better than you were 2 years ago when you had your 2 biggest wins and were a DFBC finalist?

    Yes. It’s called variance with an element of luck. I’ve had several high finishes since then (many in CFB and CBB), just nothing as large. I was fortunate enough to have 2 big wins very early in my playing days. Since then I’ve done well and consider myself a better player, but when I’ve played mostly GPP’s and the GPP’s keep getting bigger, but biggest year of profit was still 2012.

    Not to mention when I was a DFBC finalist, I paid $10 and beat 1800 people. Neither of those things are a remote option these days.

  • electrichaz3

    @MikeMineo said...

    no there hasn’t been a heater as hot as Ethan’s August MLB run. it isn’t possible, and any top DFS player who isn’t affiliated directly with DK or FD will and have say the same thing.

    as I said, it’s either the greatest run in DFS history, or…

    ban.

    this is utterly false. my best friend is a pro and not affiliated with anyone. I am having him put together the same chart which shows a bigger heater then that. max dalury lols at Ethan’s heater you’ve got to be kidding me.

    posts like these are the problem and why a lot of

  • MikeMineo

    @reztes757 said...

    Weren’t those 60 person contests that he had 5 entries in or were they bigger qualifiers?

    yup.

    as I said, the comparisons to stlcards and beep’s 4-day runs in 100-entry contests are just so laughable and off base.

    I’ll continue to await an ACTUAL comparison.

  • MikeMineo

    @electrichaz3 said...

    ban.

    this is utterly false. my best friend is a pro and not affiliated with anyone. I am having him put together the same chart which shows a bigger heater then that. max dalury lols at Ethan’s heater you’ve got to be kidding me.

    posts like these are the problem and why a lot of

    really looking forward to that chart then

    if someone’s ever been a hotter run than Ethan’s we should probably bow down and consider them a god of forecasting random dongs.

    I’m genuinely more interested at this point how it’s even possible to guess, nearly every day for a month, the outcomes of individual players in MLB and do better than 99.5% of other competitive players in the process, ALMOST EVERY DAY FOR A MONTH.

    if someone has that forecasting ability, just wow.

  • srolleDFS

    @codyallison1026 said...

    True ROI? I’m gonna go out on a limb and say it’s Safe to say that 350k netted him a pretty nice ROI

    u’d prolly be surprised how quickly entry fees can pile up when you multi -enter. sometimes u can get a top 10 in a big gpp and still be down money. people think u crushed it, but u actually our out 20% of what your risked.

  • Myballzachertz

    Why are the big dogs not comenting on this? I am just curious

  • srolleDFS

    @MikeMineo said...

    again, you guys are listing heaters lasting 4-5 days. stlcards killed it for a week straight. that’s normal. he’s also always been a great player – not exponentially better starting at a certain period.

    would love to see a heater that lasted 4 weeks in comparable form.

    winning for 4 Qs in 4 days is better than a similar number of wins over a much longer period. thats how the numbers work, man. just “objective facts”.

  • tommygmets86

    @dp47 said...

    So then you should know that better than accusing Ethan of cheating in a public forum without having any idea of how many entries he used or his true ROI during that time period.

    I barely accused him. I started my post saying I’ve been defending him all day and that I don’t want this to be true. I just can’t ignore some of the facts of this situation – show me a month long run with as many top finishes that you (a top player ) has had and maybe I’ll shut up. Once again, I have invested time, money, and even part of my limited working career to DFS and do not want anything bad to happen. I simply can’t get past the article about his successes in baseball, let alone the NFL finish.

  • Myballzachertz

    @MikeMineo said...

    really looking forward to that chart then

    if someone’s ever been a hotter run than Ethan’s we should probably bow down and consider them a god of forecasting random dongs.

    Random dongs lmao

  • lordwu84

    @dmoen21 said...

    So, the simple solution is to tighten up security and ban all DFS employees from playing at any DFS site. This is really the only way to regain player/consumer confidence.

    DK/Fanduel are going to do more than this to restore confidence. The poker sites supposedly banned employees from playing, but still had superusers. After poker, today’s players and particularly the media are a lot more skeptical. A good start would be (as stated by people in previous posts): – ban employees from playing on any site – eliminate access to lineups/database to anyone except IT. – ban scripting and cap max entries per tournament well below current values. – lock lineups at start of first game and immediately release csv of all lineups. – show logs of Ethan’s database queries in Aug/Sep

  • letterj007

    “show me a month long run with as many top finishes that you (a top player ) has had and maybe I’ll shut up.”

    And this run is by an individual that has ACCESS to more info than the rest of the pool.

  • thekeech

    @TnRiddles said...

    This makes sense. Everybody should take notice. But as always , headchopper will be attacked because he is a stalwart in the industry and wins money. He will be accused of just backing the sharks and his “buddies”.

    With much respect HC, this will enhance things, but it would have made things so much better had FD and DK come out in front of this thing. To think that complacency and ignorance of the problem, and the silence that came after concern, would not cause all of these people to become outraged, is so naive. It’s FD and DK’S fault, a lot of this could have been quelled quickly.

  • MikeMineo

    not when you factor in aspects like contest size.

    the qualifiers only had a few hundred entrants, to my knowledge. plus, each day represents a new slate to research; what’s likelier – researching flawlessly for 4 days straight, or researching flawlessly for almost 31 days straight?

    running hot for 4 days as opposed to 31 days straight seems likelier to me in any scenario, especially when one day counts as one research session.

    cards and beep were on their game for 4-5 days straight, with them being at an elite research level for four days straight. now that’s a realistic heater.

    I had a hard time believing Ethan researched better than 99.5% of the field for nearly 31 days straight without using certain data in a game as volatile as MLB. it’s just that simple.

  • pandabear415

    He won four GPPS in MLB in August? He is the best!!!! It’s hard to even win one GPP in your dfs career!

  • hpharri1994

    Why in the hell were employees of these sites ever allowed to play on other sites? It is crazy to me that nobody thought this was a horrible idea before now. We still wouldn’t be talking about it if not for the errant tweet.

  • phillygamecox

    what really defines a heater? The LB Sports article lists the 30 days that he placed and some days he placed in 1, and others he might have 3 place. Correct me if I’m wrong, but that was in the top 5%, right? I mentioned this probably 30 pages back that I went through just about 10-15 days of my MLB data and can say I placed in the top 5% with 1 lineup that many days in a row—i don’t have the time to go through 30 days. But, if it’s only the top 5% with 1 lineup, it’s not that difficult if you post TONS of lineups per day. Odds tell you that if you post 100 lineups, and stacking lineups in baseball nonetheless – one of them will likely get the top 5%. But, as I mentioned in that same post I made – i’m playing such insanely small stakes($3, $1, .$.25) that even being in the top 5% isn’t pulling in much, if any. But, if you had tons of dough and put in a ton of stacking lineups per night in baseball – the odds are pretty decent at least 1 lineup will crack the 5%. How much that pays of course is based on the level of entry and entrants.

  • KevBaile

    @codyallison1026 said...

    Absolutely hilarious that people are playing the Ethan’s a good guy card !!!! How do you know this ? Cause he was fun at a few dfs parties ? Don’t dismiss the notion that he was cheating simply because he was sociable.

    Ethan Haskell might well be a nice person. But nice people do bad things all the time.

  • ComicFx

    Some very good players in DFS make some insane how the did they do that runs… real issue again:

    Who released the data to the employee? (who gets it first, why)
    Who has access to contest data?
    At what stage of the contest cycle do “they” have access?
    For what purpose? (FYI current purposes are failing)

    Hard to play without knowing the answers to the above, hate to speculate on the silence, were there any controls in place to limit access?

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @MikeMineo said...

    not when you factor in aspects like contest size.

    the qualifiers only had a few hundred entrants, to my knowledge. plus, each day represents a new slate to research; what’s likelier – researching flawlessly for 4 days straight, or researching flawlessly for almost 31 days straight?

    running hot for 4 days as opposed to 31 days straight seems likelier to me in any scenario, especially when one day counts as one research session.

    cards and beep were on their game for 4-5 days straight, with them being at an elite research level for four days straight. now that’s a realistic heater.

    I had a hard time believing Ethan researched better than 99.5% of the field for nearly 31 days straight without using certain data in a game as volatile as MLB. it’s just that simple.

    The problem with your argument, YOU/WE/NOBODY knows how much he was playing each slate. Some people increase play when they get hot, and as Srolle said, you can lose money sometimes when you finish in the top 10.

  • MikeMineo

    @letterj007 said...

    “show me a month long run with as many top finishes that you (a top player ) has had and maybe I’ll shut up.”

    And his run is by an individual that has ACCESS to more info than the rest of the pool.

    that’s the point, for sure.

    and – let’s just assume for a second this fiasco never even happened.

    if we’re just looking at this run, without ANY potential accusations, I’m interested in any discussion that shows me a comparable run. just purely as a DFS player for a year, it boggles my mind that a run this hot can occur in a game like MLB.

    and when i say comparable, I don’t mean comparing a 4-day hot streak with qualifiers to a guy consistently finishing in top 0.5% of thousands of entrants nearly every day for 31 days straight in ultra-volatile MLB.

  • ebsteelers

    @MrCalzone said...

    Worth pointing out that Jonathan Bales had access to hundreds of thousands of DK lineups and game histories before the game exports were publicly available. He had access to these for the purpose of writing his book. Meanwhile, he was still allowed to play in the games w/o any controversy.

    thought he got these after the season?

  • Mazzone

    Mondogoal Rep

    @joonbae said...

    #1. This is a major issue. For those of you who are trying to minimize the edge of this data having been accessible … shame on you for even trying. You are embarrassing yourself. Lots of DFS players are very intelligent. Many are technically skills in STEM fields. So, pls stop it before you put your foot further into your mouth. For novices or poets, pls go present the situation to someone (e.g., your college math professor) and have her/him explain why this insider information means not a “small” edge but extreme advantage. DFS is purely math when such data is exposed. I’m lazy too to a degree so I do not want to explain it in granular detail here. Again, ask your former math professor or a friend with a deep understanding of math. One simple way to describe it in that you would take the highest owned low salaried players and then join those with the lowest owned high salaried players. And, you largely ignore the low owned, low salaried. Then, you do the same in tiers and in reverse … mid owned low salaries with high owned high salaries. Then, high owned low salaries with mid owned high salaries. It’s a variant of using permutation calculations and adhering to the fundamental counting principle. And doing so while limiting it via some game/player analysis (yes, there is always an element of non-math based skills mainly to narrow the multi event math). However, having this ownership data reduces that chance element and heightens the probability of using pure math to score very high. Now, do I believe Ethan did all of this. Of course not. But I’m sitting here writing this long diatribe so anything is possible is you just_try_hard_enough_to_believe_it.

    #2. I have no affiliation with any site nor to Rotogrinders. I do not think it is reasonable for players to bash Cal. The guy had a trust based working relationship with Ethan. Is it so wrong for Cal to err on the side of believing a former, trusted colleague? Get real folks. It is not only to be expected but entirely reasonable.

    #3. Yes, players who are bothered by that fella’s remark to “trust the process” are right imho to be bothered. My reaction was also “huh? really? are you serious or just joking?” The whole issue at hand is that the “trust” has eroded precisely because the “process” has clearly broken down. Unless, that person is suggesting that the erosion of trust is deliberate and a part of the process. Which is absurd. Again, let’s just assume he was joking.

    #4. Formal statements by the operators are nothing. They are meaningless. Crisis control and crisis comm has existed for at least half a century. In the last couple decades especially it has become a lucrative industry (see or google Sitrick & Co). DraftKings CEO – call Sitrick or Edelman or someone who has been advising presidents and ceos. Tell your kitchen cabinet amateur staff to adjourn. You have a real crisis on your hands. Go get a professional firm and shield your staff/execs to a degree so they can focus on day to day ops. This is a crisis for the ceo to own with outside counsel. Crisis comm counsels that the harmed brand or company acts quickly, proactively, and decisively. The “this too shall pass” approach is highly discouraged. Being in control of the message and communication flow is of utmost importance. Expect some standard playbook to be run. Be on the lookout for a formation of a “players council to supplement internal controls and governance.” Also, look for an appointment of an internal Ombudsman. Further, look for a swift admission of guilt on not individuals but “guilt in the processes and controls or lack thereof.” The excuse will be the hyper growth and the inherent challenges of such scalability. And, lastly, expect $ investments going into nurturing the player base to quickly “move on.” Guys, almost every vertical industry has gone through a ton of these types of trust-bruising debacles. They have all overcome it. Customers continue to pay, and it ultimately goes away (until the next crisis). It sounds depressing to say this but the fellow who said that nothing will change unless they dramatically lose customers or an external entity applied pressure and audits procedures. On that note, another page of the playbook is to announce that “we will audit ourselves.” Comical but it happens all the time.

    #5. While I cannot speak to the intelligence of Rotogrinders’ owners/employees, it is highly implausible that they are defending operators due to profit motives. Quite the reverse. Rotogrinder makes money only if DFS operators thrive. Crisis such as this raise the risk profile of the DFS segment. Thus, the risk translates to potential loss of profit (and even existence) of RG in the future. I’m sure that the first people to think “oh sh*t, what just happened again?!” are the largest stakeholders of RG. Think about it. Yes, sometimes people are too emotional and thus act against their self interest. But, for the most part, logical behavior tends to win out. It is logical to believe that RG owners/staff are the first people to find this developing news as highly threatening to their livelihood. So, give them a break. They’ve been working tirelessly to build this RG business. We’re all patronizing it. It’s clear that these guys are highly passionate and love fantasy sports. They even provide this forum through which dialogue occurs. I read these attacks on RG staff and just shake my head.

    #6. And, finally, on the matter of “is this about Ethan or not” … of course it is not ultimately about Ethan. But, Ethan is a representation of the others who may or may not have also had access to this inside info. For those of you without a clue as to what insider info is … in regulated industries, insider info is prosecutable and people end up in orange jail suits. Ownership percentages by definition are insider info. This is why the New York Times, ESPN, and just about every other major media outlet have or will cover this developing story. It is the job of DraftKings and FanDuel to use money to make the problem go away fast. They need to do this not for us the current players but rather for the future revenue from future (new) players who will be scared away before spending a penny on DFS. And, those people do not read RG threads nor even care about all of the conjectures and implausible statements. Think about it. RG’s viewership vs NY Times? Hence, we can be somewhat sure that DK and FD ceos are formulating strategies for how to handle mainstream media inquiries and investigative journalists. The last priority on their list is RG. But hopefully they do place care into responding to their most valuable assets — its users and community.

    (Side note: On the Ethan issue. I do not care much if Ethan did or did not get the data pre- or post-lock. Why are people obsessed with this inconsequential detail? Let me explain. If someone with server access wanted to cheat, they can change the little entries in the databases to create winning entries ex post facto. They can change things POST-LOCK. Similar to the math professor suggestion, go talk to an excellent software programmer and infosec engineer in the same room, at the same time. And you will get about 1,000 ways to cheat from the inside. Methods and workarounds. It gets quite interesting and alarming. I just happen to be in the field and did just that by making a quick call to peers I’ve known for 18+ years in baked systems and infosec. Give the pre- and post lock a rest. It is highly insulting to think some of us are influenced by that little detail. We don’t.

    Apologies for the TLDR response or post. I enjoy DFS. It’s super fun. I talk openly about playing it at work. I don’t really care if people call it gambling or not. I just want it to get bigger and safer and more fun with new innovations to make DFS continually engaging. I sometimes go on long periods of not playing because (like most of you) I am extremely busy with work, home, etc.

    Instead of spreading paranoia, we should all help DFS become a safer game. That’s the end goal, isn’t it? And work towards exchanging ideas to make it so. It ain’t gonna happen overnight but rather by inches of improvements. And it seems the operators read RG. So, I’m sure they will pick up on some good ideas and discuss implementing it if it makes sense.

    I used to write some game related blog posts here independently but it has been a while since writing this type of POV missive. Thanks for patiently reading all the way through to here.

    agree with this 100%

  • headChopper

    RG Contributor (OG Status)

    • 236

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #23

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    • x2

      $1M Prize Winner

    • 2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @MikeMineo said...

    yup.

    as I said, the comparisons to stlcards and beep’s 4-day runs in 100-entry contests are just so laughable and off base.

    I’ll continue to await an ACTUAL comparison.

    Well, thanks for the trip down memory lane at the very least. But good runs happen:

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