INDUSTRY FORUM

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  • thelawnmower

    A little background. Draftkings decided to get into the NFT marketplace. Their first foray into it started Wednesday where they had 5 Drops of Tom Brady NFT’s ranging for $12 to $100 to purchase. All sold out. People relisted in the market place and were able to sell them at 15x+ their initial investment. Friday (today) they had 5 more drops of rarer Tom Brady Signature NFT’s. All with 100 or less in each drop. You join a que 30 min prior and were assigned a random number at the time of the drop and if you were one of the lucky ones to be assigned a low number you could buy one. There were roughly 30k people in the que for each drop. Here is where it doesn’t add up. And I only went back as far as the Emerald Drop
    The Tom Brady Signature Emerald Collection issued only 50 NFT’s. $500 to purchase if you got numbers 1-50. Sapphire Drop was next with only 25 NFT’s $750 and Ruby Drop with 12 NFT's $1500. Around 30k people were in each que. The numbers were assigned thru a random number generator for all the people in the que. Whether you got in the que 30min or 1min prior to the drop you all had an equal chance. If you were assigned a low number to be first in line you can purchase i.e. you needed to be number 1 thru 12 to get the Ruby. Basically it was free money if you were lucky enough to win because people were flipping them in the marketplace for $8k for the Emerald cards up to $150k for the Ruby just minutes after the drop concluded. Emerald you had about a 0.0016 chance to win. Ruby about 0.0004. Long long long odds but awesome if you win.
    So here is the rub. After the drop is complete you can check the Draftkings screen names of everyone who won. I start scanning the names on Rotogrinders to check their playing history. I figure they have some history on DFS and a few would show up. Nothing. I found two out of 30. Everyone was a ghost. It didnt make sense so i dug in deeper. I see that alexdotlee won card #12/50 in the Emerald. Huge odds but awesome for him. But then I see that he won #16/25 in the Sapphire. I'm like what? That is almost impossible. Im not math major so I will someone else do the odds. Then another one shows up. Proudmoolie wins #29/50 in the Emerald drop. Then #4/25 in the Sapphire drop. WTF? Out of 30k people in the que they won both??? Thats like hitting a royal flush 5x in a row. Then there is @sweetbabynicco. This cowboy managed to get a low enough number to get the Emerald, Sapphire, and the Ruby. Its impossible. Literally impossible without a hack to the RNG. A snowballs chance in hell. Someone give me the math on that. I believe this was on the Poly network that just got hacked for 660mil.
    This isn’t good for DK. I guarantee you will see more news come out once people dig into this further.

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    • Last Updated 1 month ago
  • thedkexperience

    @Felixxberg said...

    It wasn’t really a pop up. The page refreshes constantly, and then when it got to 52 people in front of me, the next message said I’d be redirected to the “buy” page, and I was, but it was identified as sold out.

    It was different than the first drop, where I never got redirected and it just said the sale had ended.

    Literally just had this happen to me. I stated like 1933 so I figured there was no chance. Got all the way to 34 then I was told I was gonna get redirected.

    Sold out. Womp womp.

  • TheShaman43

    I imagine that’s gonna happen to a bunch of people every drop.

    I suspect it’s something like X number of people are passed from the queue to the “buy” page every Y seconds. But getting access to the “buy” page doesn’t reserve you a purchase, you’ve got to actively press the buy button.

    So by the time you get access to the “buy” page there might only be three left but there could be 80 people already dawdling in the “buy” room who just haven’t clicked the button yet… if you’re in that last group that’s let in: poof gone before the page even loads for you.

  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    It feels like a pretty crappy system. Waited the full 30 minutes for the first 2 Brady and Gretzky drops and have not even come close to getting one (I know they say the time you join doesn’t matter).

    I’m probably just bitter, but it feels like the system really screwed me (bots or some other aspect). It just feels really suspicious when you know what typical DK traffic is like, yet you end up #20,000+ in line for a $12 item and then the exact same thing happens for the $25 one.

    I have no desire to sell and make money, just thought collecting them would be fun, but it’s clearly a money grab.

  • yisman

    @Felixxberg said...

    It’s very weird. The first number I saw was in the 2200s, so I thought I was fine for sure, then I had a message saying to be ready to get redirected, and then got redirected, but it was sold out already.

    that happened to me like three times with Brady. Some kind of glitch.

    Anyway, I’ve been in every single drop and haven’t gotten one yet.

  • emnj69

    @tgowen said...

    It feels like a pretty crappy system. Waited the full 30 minutes for the first 2 Brady and Gretzky drops and have not even come close to getting one (I know they say the time you join doesn’t matter).

    I’m probably just bitter, but it feels like the system really screwed me (bots or some other aspect). It just feels really suspicious when you know what typical DK traffic is like, yet you end up #20,000+ in line for a $12 item and then the exact same thing happens for the $25 one.

    I have no desire to sell and make money, just thought collecting them would be fun, but it’s clearly a money grab.

    I am a nobody with no special system and was able to get them so I don’t think there is anything shady going on

  • emnj69

    @Felixxberg said...

    I’d say it depends on what numbers you got. If you have random numbers, you should probably just wait.

    What is considered a good number is it like art lower number better? Like if I got very low number is that good ?

  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’m not saying the whole thing is shady, but the system has some serious flaws.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @emnj69 said...

    What is considered a good number is it like art lower number better? Like if I got very low number is that good ?

    When looking at how much people are selling them, I’d say the lower the better, and then thedkexperience had some other good examples on page 1 of the current thread. I’m not an expert or anything, but I’m just going with what the market seems to be.

  • emnj69

    @Felixxberg said...

    When looking at how much people are selling them, I’d say the lower the better, and then thedkexperience had some other good examples on page 1 of the current thread. I’m not an expert or anything, but I’m just going with what the market seems to be.

    Thanks the resale prices are nuts but I wonder if they are actually selling at those prices and if so is it a temporary thing or is it the start of a big deal – Low numbers from last wg selling at big mark ups already and by selling I mean listed at high prices not sure if actually selling but I could see a deep pocket collector grabbing lots

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    • Last Updated 2 months ago
  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    @emnj69 said...

    Thanks the resale prices are nuts but I wonder if they are actually selling at those prices and if so is it a temporary thing or is it the start of a big deal – Low numbers from last wg selling at big mark ups already and by selling I mean listed at high prices not sure if actually selling but I could see a deep pocket collector grabbing lots

    I think it’s more likely than not they they aren’t selling them at the high prices. If you look at the history, you can see how often the prices are being adjusted. This tells me that some of the sellers are pretty desperate to get rid of them because I think they know the hype for these is going to diminish pretty quickly (at least from a resale point).

    From the beginning I’ve viewed these like traditional sports cards. When trading cards initially launched serial numbered cards they were all the hype, but the value quickly dropped once people realized having #258/5000 isn’t that rare. Add to that the reality that having a #/5000 is even less rare compared to a #/375, and then add in that the real hype will gravitate toward the signature NFT’s and the value for many of them will plummet. I think the future of these is that the $12 and $25 NFT’s will be lucky to x2 or x3 their value once more and more get launched. Again, I hope to eventually get a few, just because I love collecting and think it’s fun.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Yeah I think the system could use some more explaining on how it works. I’m mostly talking about the “false hope” redirection. I was able to snag a $12 Gretzky somehow but no luck otherwise. Think I’ll keep it but who knows.

    Now bring on the Tony Hawk one!

  • emnj69

    Hmm trying to figure out if I should try and flip or hold on for the long haul – have a top ten wg- thoughts ?

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @hautalak said...

    Now bring on the Tony Hawk one!

    That would be epic! Such an absolute legend!

    Edit: Oh, I see it’s announced already. Nice!

    • Link
    • Last Updated 2 months ago
  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @Felixxberg said...

    That would be epic! Such an absolute legend!

    I’m pretty sure they said (or I read) one of his is coming but I can’t confirm and do not know the date. I believe the other 2 I know/heard of are Osaka and Tiger Woods.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @hautalak said...

    I’m pretty sure they said (or I read) one of his is coming but I can’t confirm and do not know the date. I believe the other 2 I know/heard of are Osaka and Tiger Woods.

    Yep I just found the page. Derek Jeter, too.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @emnj69 said...

    Hmm trying to figure out if I should try and flip or hold on for the long haul – have a top ten wg- thoughts ?

    There’s something interesting that I think people are missing. I couldn’t get one, but saw some posts on twitter and it says “Holders will be granted VIP access to our first Limited Edition Wayne Gretzky Drop”, which means it might be smart to at least keep one if you have more than one. Everything is speculation, but I assume some people don’t have that info already and will want to grab one to get that privilege for future drops.

    Also, it depends on how much you spent. Sure, it’s nice to get a 10x return in a day, but is $12 for $120 really worth it in the long run? People who have the rarest ones (Brady) have a harder decision. They’re listed at $107K+, but if someone offered them $75K, would they really say no? $75K is a lot of money for something that could drop to near $0 some day. I wouldn’t mind losing a $108 gain opportunity, but $75K is another story!

  • emnj69

    @Felixxberg said...

    There’s something interesting that I think people are missing. I couldn’t get one, but saw some posts on twitter and it says “Holders will be granted VIP access to our first Limited Edition Wayne Gretzky Drop”, which means it might be smart to at least keep one if you have more than one. Everything is speculation, but I assume some people don’t have that info already and will want to grab one to get that privilege for future drops.

    Also, it depends on how much you spent. Sure, it’s nice to get a 10x return in a day, but is $12 for $120 really worth it in the long run? People who have the rarest ones (Brady) have a harder decision. They’re listed at $107K+, but if someone offered them $75K, would they really say no? $75K is a lot of money for something that could drop to near $0 some day. I wouldn’t mind losing a $108 gain opportunity, but $75K is another story!

    Thanks very much for your thoughts much appreciated. The low number ruby listed from 3k-15 k now which to me is crazy – does one try for a quick sale or does one sell and then see it go to 50 k and get the special vip perk. I collect baseball cards but never bought a “collectible “ that I can’t see or touch – I mean how can kids today put a nft in their bike spokes and ride around making a cool sound like I did when I was a kid lol

  • thedkexperience

    @emnj69 said...

    What is considered a good number is it like art lower number better? Like if I got very low number is that good ?

    I made money flipping a #420 card.

    Key numbers like 1-10, 1-100, 69, 420, jersey numbers and career stats are what I’d consider investing in but aside from that if I get lucky on a drop then I’ll just list it.

  • emnj69

    @thedkexperience said...

    I made money flipping a #420 card.

    Key numbers like 1-10, 1-100, 69, 420, jersey numbers and career stats are what I’d consider investing in but aside from that if I get lucky on a drop then I’ll just list it.

    I have a 1-10

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @emnj69 said...

    I collect baseball cards but never bought a “collectible “ that I can’t see or touch – I mean how can kids today put a nft in their bike spokes and ride around making a cool sound like I did when I was a kid lol

    I know that some people collect art/cards and never actually see them though, like in the movie Tenet. You just keep them in a warehouse and you can sell them to someone who keeps them in that same warehouse. You never see/touch the thing, but it’s yours anyway. There’s also the argument that everyone can see the NFT, so why buy it? But for me, that argument doesn’t hold. I can watch La Joconde on the Internet, but it doesn’t mean I own it!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @emnj69 said...

    I have a 1-10

    Hard decision for sure.

  • emnj69

    Is there a way to see what has already sold on the post drop market ? I would be curious to see prices obtained on brady wand Wayne post drop – I only know how to see what is for sale – thanks very much

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    • Last Updated 2 months ago
  • JaBr

    @emnj69 said...

    Is there a way to see what has already sold on the post drop market ? I would be curious to see prices obtained on brady wand Wayne post drop – I only know how to see what is for sale – thanks very much

    Only by looking at individual NFTs you can see the history.

    What happened with the Bradys on secondary marked as far as I can tell:

    Released and secondary market goes up.
    Secondary market falls back down and stabilizes.
    Signed NFTs come out and ALL secondary prices jump.
    Secondary prices settle, but still higher than when original non-signed NFTs came out.

    Maybe because people hold out hope for a signed NFT before committing to secondary, not sure. I’m assuming similar happens with the Gretzky signed NFTs dropping Friday – all Gretzky prices will spike up, then settle somewhere higher than they are, closer to around pricing at time of release.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @JaBr: Thanks! I might buy one then. The odds of getting a card on Friday are just so slim!

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    It’s weird how a few dollars make a whole difference. At $95-$100, they’re not selling much. I just saw someone post one at $89 and it sold in under a minute.

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