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  • lfn1992

    No thread for this so I thought I’d start one.

    ARS 1/4 WAT 14/1 Draw 25/4 O/U 3.5 u-51

    BOU 15/13 CRY 14/5 Draw 5/2 O/U 2.5 u-16

    BUR 2/1 LEI 31/18 Draw 23/10 O/U 2.5 u-43

    MID 9/5 WBA 33/16 Draw 21/10 O/U 2u-12

    SUN 9/1 TOT 7/19 Draw 19/4 O/U 3u-47

    SWA 12/5 SOU 11/8 Draw 12/5 O/U 2.5 u-23

    LIV 17/10 CHE 2/1 Draw 23/10 O/U 2.5 o-15

    So the big question appears to be, how do you cram both Kane and Sanchez on the same lineup?

  • KindGuy

    Mignolet!!!!!

  • qatman

    I’m no soccer expert but that looked like a horrible penalty from Costa (who I have a bunch of). If you’re going to hit it down the middle, hit it down the middle, not right where the guy would be diving. FWIW the middle is probably the best percentage play, but damn dude.

  • Roma315

    Man lot of players stunk it up today. Currently at a wash with FD Wins and DK losses

  • thetitanlb

    @elementasrat said...

    And Tom Heaton chalk wins. Ugh.

    On FD Heston was only 5% in my gpp. I couldn’t not believe it lol

  • themikestrick

    I think I may have found a new strategy for DFS. I got an email from FD yesterday to enter the free $50K Tue EPL Mega Sweeper. I saw that the average salary was $7,500 so I went through and picked some guys around that salary just to put an entry in and I was going to edit it last night. Well I totally forgot about it and didn’t remember the contest until about 5 minutes ago when I went to ESPN’s website and saw the soccer scores. Went to FD’s website and see that I finished in 569th place with 162 points and won $12.

  • Yeoman

    I got my DK bankroll started a couple of years ago on a day much like FD today. If a site is mass-mailing free entries into a contest, either (1) there’s going to be a heavy overlay or (2) there are going to be a lot of entries from people that don’t know what they’re doing and/or don’t take their entry seriously.

    I completely crapped the bed today, got the gameflow wrong for pretty much every game on the slate (except Leicester), and put up the worst score on DK I think I’ve ever had…but I still managed to cash in the Mega Sweeper. If you even bothered to check the lineups before kick I think you were probably already ahead of a good chunk of the field. I’m pulling up lineups at random and there’s dead lineups even in the top third, and from people with experience badges. Sturridge? Origi? Borja Baston? (OK, not much of him, I jut got lucky to find that one.) Vokes? You can say you thought the striker on Burnley’s substitutes’ bench was a good contrarian play but I’m not buying it.

  • KindGuy

    @Yeoman said...

    I got my DK bankroll started a couple of years ago on a day much like FD today. If a site is mass-mailing free entries into a contest, either (1) there’s going to be a heavy overlay or (2) there are going to be a lot of entries from people that don’t know what they’re doing and/or don’t take their entry seriously.

    I completely crapped the bed today, got the gameflow wrong for pretty much every game on the slate (except Leicester), and put up the worst score on DK I think I’ve ever had…but I still managed to cash in the Mega Sweeper. If you even bothered to check the lineups before kick I think you were probably already ahead of a good chunk of the field. I’m pulling up lineups at random and there’s dead lineups even in the top third, and from people with experience badges. Sturridge? Origi? Borja Baston? (OK, not much of him, I jut got lucky to find that one.) Vokes? You can say you thought the striker on Burnley’s substitutes’ bench was a good contrarian play but I’m not buying it.

    Unfortunately I only play on DK and the soccer community there is much much sharper than on FD.

  • Yeoman

    @elementasrat said...

    Unfortunately I only play on DK and the soccer community there is much much sharper than on FD.

    So it wasn’t just today? I figured they got in over their heads trying to match the Golazo, realized it wasn’t ever going to come close to filling, and turned it into a freeroll.

    I’m not going to be a regular at FD regardless—no late swap is a deal-killer unless they’re sending me a free ticket or the slate doesn’t have any delayed starts. The scoring system is interesting but Yahoo’s is similar but IMO better, and with late swap.

  • Yeoman

    @qatman said...

    FWIW the middle is probably the best percentage play, but damn dude.

    This got me wondering, and apparently this is (just barely) true:

    http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html

    Or maybe not. They only looked at 300 pk’s total, and I don’t think the gap between 13% and 17% fail rates on portions of that sample is statistically significant. As a general principle I’d expect goalies to change their behavior until the success rate is about the same in all three zones.

    One thing I’m not buying is that takers should always aim for the top third because “assuming that the shot doesn’t go over the crossbar, placing the shot in the upper region of the goal will almost insure a successful attempt.” That’s a big assumption, and there’s nothing comparable when you aim low. You can’t send your shot under the goal.

  • yountingly

    • 321

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #52

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Yeoman said...

    I got my DK bankroll started a couple of years ago on a day much like FD today. If a site is mass-mailing free entries into a contest, either (1) there’s going to be a heavy overlay or (2) there are going to be a lot of entries from people that don’t know what they’re doing and/or don’t take their entry seriously.

    I completely crapped the bed today, got the gameflow wrong for pretty much every game on the slate (except Leicester), and put up the worst score on DK I think I’ve ever had…but I still managed to cash in the Mega Sweeper. If you even bothered to check the lineups before kick I think you were probably already ahead of a good chunk of the field. I’m pulling up lineups at random and there’s dead lineups even in the top third, and from people with experience badges. Sturridge? Origi? Borja Baston? (OK, not much of him, I jut got lucky to find that one.) Vokes? You can say you thought the striker on Burnley’s substitutes’ bench was a good contrarian play but I’m not buying it.

    Wonder if you came across me. This was only the 4th or 5th slate of soccer I’ve done now and it was a scramble yesterday once lus came out because , unlike, Saturday morning, this was middle of day and I was not home and on phone. Somehow I missed Origi in one of my 4 mega lus. Sadly, that one scored 125 and just missed cashing so that was tilting.

  • SelfCharmer

    You also have the benefit of not playing against any UK players on FD as we are segregated, meaning a fair few of the Soccer Sharks do not get to swim in your ocean, but are instead locked into shitty $4k guarantee pools

  • Bigo1

    • 957

      RG Overall Ranking

    @SelfCharmer said...

    but are instead locked into shitty $4k guarantee pools

    £4k. I am not playing FD UK anymore, but would love to join the US contests indeed.

  • boomer020

    Anyone playing today’s slate?

  • SelfCharmer

    @Bigo1 said...

    £4k. I am not playing FD UK anymore, but would love to join the US contests indeed.

    Haven’t ever played UK Fd, it simply is just not worth the time.

    If they ever get their act together and merge then I am in for sure.

  • Garrincha67

    What is wrong with £4K guarantee pools with £750 top prize ? I am much more profitable playing football DFS in other sites than DK where the scoring is much more well-thought out and less infested with sharks. So £4K guarantee pools offered by Fan Duel is actually at the higher end of the scale. I can play Golf, NBA or MMA on DK. But for football there is a lot more options fantasy wise than DK’s offering.

  • SzymonK

    @boomer020 said...

    Anyone playing today’s slate?

    What is the best site to use to get some info on today’s games.

  • boomer020

    @SzymonK said...

    What is the best site to use to get some info on today’s games.

    I like squawka.com shows odds, team form, stats

  • SzymonK

    Only thing I hate about EPL is the news and player predictions are so hard to find… I just want to read about the players playing in matches not old news, trades and bullshit that doesnt concern current matches.

  • Garrincha67

    @SzymonK said...

    Only thing I hate about EPL is the news and player predictions are so hard to find… I just want to read about the players playing in matches not old news, trades and bullshit that doesnt concern current matches.

    Bookmark this page and it has excellent game week reviews, it should give you an idea of what the game flow will be like. Do not trust any site that tells you they can make player predictions and it a lot of BS. EPL is not NBA where you can make player projections, any team can beat another team on the day. Use that to your advantage when playing DFS by going against the grain in a smart way.

    http://www.toddstake.com/2017/01/31/mid-week-match-report/

    http://www.toddstake.com/category/soccer/

  • SzymonK

    @Garrincha67 said...

    Bookmark this page and it has excellent game week reviews, it should give you an idea of what the game flow will be like. Do not trust any site that tells you they can make player predictions and it a lot of BS. EPL is not NBA where you can make player projections, any team can beat another team on the day. Use that to your advantage when playing DFS by going against the grain in a smart way.

    http://www.toddstake.com/2017/01/31/mid-week-match-report/

    http://www.toddstake.com/category/soccer/

    Thank You

  • iron_tactics

    Hull City gonna beat Manchester United today?

  • qatman

    @Yeoman said...

    This got me wondering, and apparently this is (just barely) true:

    http://www.scienceofsocceronline.com/2009/04/penalty-kicks-by-numbers.html

    Or maybe not. They only looked at 300 pk’s total, and I don’t think the gap between 13% and 17% fail rates on portions of that sample is statistically significant. As a general principle I’d expect goalies to change their behavior until the success rate is about the same in all three zones.

    One thing I’m not buying is that takers should always aim for the top third because “assuming that the shot doesn’t go over the crossbar, placing the shot in the upper region of the goal will almost insure a successful attempt.” That’s a big assumption, and there’s nothing comparable when you aim low. You can’t send your shot under the goal.

    I remember reading a PK discussion in… maybe Soccernomics? There was a chapter about studying tendencies and where the best place to kick was. A lot of it is when takers almost always go the same way, if the GK knows that he can prep. Most GK are going to dive one way or the other, and most takers (imo) do not want to look foolish by kicking the ball straight at the middle in case the GK doesn’t dive. As you say, it’s an iterative game and ultimately the equilibrium should be established, but since GK vs. taker matchups are rarely repeated there is a ton of variance.

    As to the ‘aim high’ recommendation, I guess that’s probably true IF (big if) you can put the shot on goal with reasonable pace. So accuracy likely decreases but save rate should plummet, meaning total PK % might increase.

  • aengel927

    To Pogba or to Mikky… that is the question

  • aengel927

    Gaby Jesus making his first start get him in your GPP lineups kids

  • boomer020

    Man, I have no idea who to play in cash on FD at FWD now.

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