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  • soobv

    • 926

      RG Overall Ranking

    I’m not sure if this has been done yet but I am Looking to get a ESPN league (entry can be free) started with people who are going to enter the maximum 500 entries allowed into the week 1 DK Millionaire Maker. If we could get 10 people together we would have exposure to 5,000 entries for a chance at the 100k each.

    The only conditions are: 1. Agree to do 500 entries and you can’t be in any other ESPN league.

    Serious people only!

    If this has already been done or is currently in the works by anybody else let me know.

    This is a very +ev opportunity to get exposure to 10 winning players with 5k entries. The plan is to do the draft Saturday night or Sunday Morning. Before doing the draft everybody will have to be registered for the 500 teams on DK.

    Here are the details of the promotion:

    https://www.draftkings.com/lp/espn-dk-millmaker

  • btwice80

    @soobv said...

    This is a very +ev opportunity to get exposure to 10 winning players with 5k entries.

    Nothing about the Millionaire Maker is +ev.

    So all you have to do to be in this league is pay $10,000 in DK entry fees?

  • soobv

    • 926

      RG Overall Ranking

    Currently have 2 other people interested in doing this. We need 7 more. Feel free to PM me.

  • soobv

    • 926

      RG Overall Ranking

    @btwice80 said...

    Nothing about the Millionaire Maker is +ev.

    So all you have to do to be in this league is pay $10,000 in DK entry fees?

    This league is for people who were already planning on doing the 500 teams. By getting everybody together to be in this league each member of the league will have a +ev chance at one of our 5,000 teams having the highest scoring team out of everybody else who is participating in this promotion (which I assume to be a very small percent of millionaire maker rosters).

  • shockermandan

    • Moderator

    I’m not a qualified candidate, but sounds like a great idea soobv.

    This post inspired me to go look at the payout structure of that tournament… Wow. You have to get in the top 4% to double your buy-in.

    Looks like there will be a ton of overlay thoug

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 293

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but there’s a 0% shot that everyone who signs up for this will enter the 500 lineups unless you force them to do it in advance.

    $10,000 in entry fees is no small potatoes. Not that I’m trying to doubt the OP of this thread, but right now he has one entry in there. If you want to set an example for people, just lock in that same lineup for your other 499 entries right now and edit them later.

    Basically, this isn’t going to work with a group of randoms from the message board if you’re trying to force people to play $10,000 of entry fees in a -EV tournament. It’s simply not feasible for the average bankroll (or even above average bankroll) person to fire 500 darts at this.

    Just be careful here.

  • srolleDFS

    @stlcardinals84 said...

    to play $10,000 of entry fees in a -EV tournament.

    why do u think its a -EV tounament? you arent the first person i’ve heard say that.

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 293

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @srolleDFS said...

    why do u think its a -EV tounament? you arent the first person i’ve heard say that.

    Let’s say you put 500 entries into this thing. That gives you 0.0873% of the total entries into the tournament (500 / 572,500) assuming it fills.

    In order for you to make a profit from those entries, which cost you $10,000, you basically need to have a lineup come in the top 50, at least, along with some other cashes along the way. Finishing in the top 50 applies to 0.0087% of the total field.

    So you have 0.0873% of the total entries and you have to finish in the top 0.0087% of the field in order to make a profit. Does that sound like positive expected value?

    Plain and simple, we play this to take a shot at the big money at the top. If you don’t finish near the top, you’re going to be saddled with a loss of entry fees.

  • dakimbell

    Yep, it is basically a promotional tournament with top-heavy payout so DK can say they are giving away $2 million and the Chocolate Factory to the lucky winner.

    Having said that, I will definitely be throwing some darts at it!

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I’ll throw my darts too. Unfortunately, we’re all way too degenerate to stay away. If my bankroll hadn’t gone towards a house I was considering running max entry # train at it each week this year. I think that concept has a ton of potential with 20%+ of the entries being flat out ridiculous.

  • lionssuck

    @stlcardinals84 said...

    Let’s say you put 500 entries into this thing. That gives you 0.0873% of the total entries into the tournament (500 / 572,500) assuming it fills.

    In order for you to make a profit from those entries, which cost you $10,000, you basically need to have a lineup come in the top 50, at least, along with some other cashes along the way. Finishing in the top 50 applies to 0.0087% of the total field.

    So you have 0.0873% of the total entries and you have to finish in the top 0.0087% of the field in order to make a profit. Does that sound like positive expected value?

    Plain and simple, we play this to take a shot at the big money at the top. If you don’t finish near the top, you’re going to be saddled with a loss of entry fees.

  • srolleDFS

    @stlcardinals84 said...

    assuming it fills

    i think what ur saying is its not +EV if the V is personal utility. if the V is just money, then its definitely +EV. i agree in general with ur point.

    i doubt it fills though. the ESPN promo can add 10% of overlay. if it goes off at 80% filled, you’re looking at 110/80 return compared to playing a fully filled gpp. combine that with that fact that it will probably be the weakest field of any gpp this year. i dont have a good estimate of what that adds to ur expectancy compared to a normal gpp.

    right now im leaning towards doing it. if it looks like it will fill, im not sure. if i do it then, it will be much more “for the love of the game” than any rational basis.

  • ColonialRampage

    1. Any tournament with any rake is -EV if you’re an average player
    2. If you’re good enough to beat the rake normally, the MM would be +EV for you
    3. However, the payout structure provides extremely high variance, so even if it’s +EV (which considers the expected value over the long run), chances very high that you’re going to lose money in any given MM.

  • kevin8053

    • 201

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #27

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2020 NASCAR Live Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings King of the Beach Finalist

    I’m good for 200ish entries.. check my NFL profile.. Been wanting to do something like this as well and open to joining this league

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    When people say +ev and -ev it means relative to something else. The point is that if you “only” have 10K to spend, 500 unique entries to the MM is not the way to spend it. So it is -ev in the sense that it has a lower expectation of profit than playing other contests would with that same 10K.

  • srolleDFS

    @pmsimkins said...

    When people say +ev and -ev it means relative to something else.

    “im going to play some roulette. its +ev.”

    “wtf r u talking about?”

    “im down $65k on keno so far tonight.”

    “oh”

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @srolleDFS said...

    “im going to play some roulette. its +ev.”

    “wtf r u talking about?”

    “im down $65k on keno so far tonight.”

    “oh”

    I get your point, but what I’m saying is +ev and -ev is about decision making between defined options.

    If you’re at the casino and you’re deciding between blackjack and roulette, blackjack is +ev decision. If you’re at home and deciding whether to go to the casino and play blackjack or sit on your couch then blackjack is a -ev decision.

    Do you see what I mean about it being relative, not absolute in the context generally used?

    If you want to make it absolute in terms of DFS then only the rake and your skill relative to opponents matters. That makes it pretty straightforward and boring to discuss.

  • soobv

    • 926

      RG Overall Ranking

    @stlcardinals84 said...

    I don’t have a horse in this race, but there’s a 0% shot that everyone who signs up for this will enter the 500 lineups unless you force them to do it in advance.

    $10,000 in entry fees is no small potatoes. Not that I’m trying to doubt the OP of this thread, but right now he has one entry in there. If you want to set an example for people, just lock in that same lineup for your other 499 entries right now and edit them later.

    Basically, this isn’t going to work with a group of randoms from the message board if you’re trying to force people to play $10,000 of entry fees in a -EV tournament. It’s simply not feasible for the average bankroll (or even above average bankroll) person to fire 500 darts at this.

    Just be careful here.

    STL- Just because an event is top heavy doesn’t mean it is -ev it just means it is high variance. I would of thought this is something a fellow Accounting guy would know. Also, the whole reason for this league is to get everybody in the league exposure to more teams to have a shot at the 100k side pot to try to reduce the variance.

    I have registered 100 entries. This is the bare minimum I will do assuming there is no overlay and assuming we don’t get the league started. I have 5 people who are currently interested in doing in the 200-300 range for the league which I am OK with doing. Currently the draft is scheduled Saturday night.

    I do anticipate this thing to overlay based on prior years (we may be in unchartered territory with all the DK commercials though). It currently is 191k/572k. Please send me a PM to sign up.

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 293

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @soobv said...

    STL- Just because an event is top heavy doesn’t mean it is -ev it just means it is high variance. I would of thought this is something a fellow Accounting guy would know.

    Get into semantics all you want. If you’re arguing it’s “+ev” while also being “high variance” then how long would it take for you to realize that “+ev” as a player? One week if you win it? 10 years if you don’t win it early on? 20 years? Be logical here. I guarantee there are players who multi-entered this every single week last year and didn’t have a single profitable week on the thing.

    The point is that the tournament generates a positive outcome for less than 1% of multi-entry players and it’s extremely risky to throw 500 darts at it if that is a good chunk of your bankroll. Your original post says “500 entries” not 100 or 200 or 300 entries.

  • jlove18

    @stlcardinals84 said...

    Get into semantics all you want. If you’re arguing it’s “+ev” while also being “high variance” then how long would it take for you to realize that “+ev” as a player? One week if you win it? 10 years if you don’t win it early on? 20 years? Be logical here. I guarantee there are players who multi-entered this every single week last year and didn’t have a single profitable week on the thing.

    The point is that the tournament generates a positive outcome for less than 1% of multi-entry players and it’s extremely risky to throw 500 darts at it if that is a good chunk of your bankroll. Your original post says “500 entries” not 100 or 200 or 300 entries.

    Bump

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 293

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @jlove18 said...

    Yes my original post says 500 entries because that is what i would like to do if we can get 9 other people together. The early consensus i am getting from others is they would like to do between 2-300 instead of 500. Obviously i am going to be open to changing the original post requirements if that is what most people want.

    Again everything you are saying is variance not EV. this isn’t semantics it is just a fact.

    About as factual as you having two accounts on here, apparently, both of which are linked to DFS accounts?

  • einars

    @jlove18 said...

    Yes my original post says 500 entries because that is what i would like to do if we can get 9 other people together

    ..scans thread for other posts by jlove18…

  • Ross

    Probably a good time to shut this one down :)

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