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  • timc9842

    Has anyone else noticed that many of the cash lines are higher for 50/50s rather than GPPs? I haven’t really studied it too hard, but does anyone else find this to be true? If so, isn’t it wiser to start putting more money in GPPs? I would love to hear your thoughts on this subject!

  • NoLimits0

    It’s because all the sharks play the 50/50s and have good chalk hit on average.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @timc9842 said...

    Has anyone else noticed that many of the cash lines are higher for 50/50s rather than GPPs? I haven’t really studied it too hard, but does anyone else find this to be true? If so, isn’t it wiser to start putting more money in GPPs? I would love to hear your thoughts on this subject!

    More often than not this is not the case. I do study hard at watching these scores and have for the past few years (although I’ve deleted data from the past years now).

    This happens on nights that chalk plays hit, especially cheap chalk plays.

  • neogamer

    • x2

      2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    FanDuel has had some players insanely mispriced on multiple slates this season. This has created scores near and above 400 multiple times. The expensive chalk has also hit and hit hard bloating the cash line in single entry and double ups, so I would not read into the differential that much yet.

  • NoLimits0

    @bhdevault said...

    More often than not this is not the case. I do study hard at watching these scores and have for the past few years (although I’ve deleted data from the past years now).

    This happens on nights that chalk plays hit, especially cheap chalk plays.

    On average it happens enough for it not to be worthwhile to play cash games. Cash games have a 50% or 44% cutoff in double ups. GPPs have 20% cutoff.

    So it should be super rare the double ups cutoff is higher than GPPs but it’s happening enough to suggest cash is way harder.

    It really comes back to all the sharks entering everything in cash and playing literally the same plays.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    @NoLimits0 said...

    On average it happens enough for it not to be worthwhile to play cash games

    “On average it happens enough for it not to be worthwhile for some to play cash games”

    Fixed.

    Everyone should examine their own play and results, not let someone tell them what works and doesn’t.

    I struggle at GPP’s. I have a positive ROI in cash games.

  • Njsum1

    @bhdevault said...

    I struggle at GPP’s. I have a positive ROI in cash games

    Are you playing the type of GPP’s where min cash isn’t 2x? And are you only entering 1 lineup? If so, I can see this being case for some people, especially if you/they answered yes to both questions, or just question 1.

    However, if you’re playing GPP’s where min cash is 2x, and entering at least a handful of lineups, I think most people are better off playing GPP’s only, specifically in NBA.

  • NoLimits0

    @Njsum1 said...

    Are you playing the type of GPP’s where min cash isn’t 2x? And are you only entering 1 lineup? If so, I can see this being case for some people, especially if you/they answered yes to both questions, or just question 1.

    However, if you’re playing GPP’s where min cash is 2x, and entering at least a handful of lineups, I think most people are better off playing GPP’s only, specifically in NBA.

    I would add 3) are you submitting the same cash lineup that is cashing double ups into GPPs and only looking at the ROI of that one lineup (and not all other GPP lineups or pivots).

    I think the OPs question literally pertains to 1 lineup and he should be entering that one lineup into cash or GPP in the long run.

  • chrisbanas

    I can agree that when the chalk hits, the cash line for 50/50 is higher.

  • bigez952

    @NoLimits0 said...

    On average it happens enough for it not to be worthwhile to play cash games. Cash games have a 50% or 44% cutoff in double ups. GPPs have 20% cutoff.

    So it should be super rare the double ups cutoff is higher than GPPs but it’s happening enough to suggest cash is way harder.

    It really comes back to all the sharks entering everything in cash and playing literally the same plays.

    I used to play the single entry double ups a lot along with a single entry GPP around the $10 price point and I tracked the cash line data for 3 years (2016-2018) playing MLB every single day. In that time I ran into the cash line of the single entry double up beating the single entry GPP about 4% of the time. In an average MLB season which was the one sport I never missed a day this would occur 6-8 times a year out of the 180+ days.

    NBA I never played or tracked as closely but I would be surprised if the results are significantly different where the double up cash line is beating GPP cash lines anything north of 15-20%. You always tend to remember the nights that the chalk smashes and double ups are impossible to cash in which is why is feels like it happens more than it actually does.

  • Njsum1

    @bigez952 said...

    I used to play the single entry double ups a lot along with a single entry GPP around the $10 price point and I tracked the cash line data for 3 years. In that time I ran into the cash line of the single entry double up beating the single entry GPP about 4% of the time. In an average MLB season which was the one sport I never missed a day this would occur 6-8 times a year out of the 180+ days.

    NBA I never played or tracked as closely but I would be surprised if the results are significantly different where the double up cash line is beating GPP cash lines anything north of 15-20%.

    I don’t doubt your MLB data, as I think MLB cash games are still viable.

    However, I think your assumption is wrong about NBA. I’d guess it’s closer to 40%. Even last night which wasn’t a chalk sandwich night, cash lines were higher in double ups.

    I also wouldn’t compare single entry GPP’s to double ups as I would think the cash lines are higher in those. I’d compare double ups to multi-entry GPP’s. As you get some looser lineups when people multi enter.

  • bigez952

    @Njsum1 said...

    However, I think your assumption is wrong about NBA. I’d guess it’s closer to 40%. Even last night which wasn’t a chalk sandwich night, cash lines were higher in double ups.

    You could be right as I have never been an NBA guy. Just MLB, NFL, and PGA. 40% seems crazy if your comparing single entry double ups to single entry GPP’s both which share a lot of the same chalk but one pays out twice as many spots.

  • bigez952

    @Njsum1 said...

    I also wouldn’t compare single entry GPP’s to double ups as I would think the cash lines are higher in those. I’d compare double ups to multi-entry GPP’s. As you get some looser lineups when people multi enter.

    That isn’t a good comparison in my opinion as most multi entry GPP’s only pay 1.5X to the top until you get into the top 10% whereas single entry contests usually pay 2X min cash. It might be easier to hit the 1.5X in a multi entry GPP but those payouts are so top heavy your going to get crushed in those unless you win one or get consistent top 1% finishes If your playing a cash type lineup your not getting those top finishes a lock to go bankrupt playing a multi entry GPP’s instead of double ups. You for sure would still be better off playing double ups than multi entry GPP’s even if the min cash line for those contests equaled or were lower 30-40% of the time.

  • Njsum1

    @bigez952 said...

    That isn’t a good comparison in my opinion as most multi entry GPP’s only pay 1.5X

    Yes the 150 max…however the 20 max often pay 2x min cash. Look at the $1 and $4 on DK tonight.

  • w3junky

    Let’s collect some data next few nights and post our findings in here. I’ll do a total of four $1 single entry contests on FD. Consist of two of the 50/50’s (50 and 100 entries) and two of the league style contests (20 entry). Sorry don’t know if you consider those true gpp.

  • neogamer

    • x2

      2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Yea… Bill demonstrated last night the the correct answer here. Don’t worry about cash lines. Finish in the top 10 and take down the big money. Congrats on the 5k won in the Clutch Shot on Fanduel Bhdevault!!

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @neogamer said...

    Yea… Bill demonstrated last night the the correct answer here. Don’t worry about cash lines. Finish in the top 10 and take down the big money. Congrats on the 5k won in the Clutch Shot on Fanduel Bhdevault!!

    Thanks Neal. Throwing my cash lineup in GPP’s did me well. Also won the $1, $2, $5 and $10 single entries with it.

  • NoLimits0

    @neogamer said...

    Yea… Bill demonstrated last night the the correct answer here. Don’t worry about cash lines. Finish in the top 10 and take down the big money. Congrats on the 5k won in the Clutch Shot on Fanduel Bhdevault!!

    Nice job^

    But this kinda proves our point? If you make good cash lineups, over the long run you should be making more in GPPs with that lineup than in cash because it only takes like 1 big night, especially given how close the two cash lines are.

  • madmanjayWV

    @neogamer said...

    Yea… Bill demonstrated last night the the correct answer here. Don’t worry about cash lines. Finish in the top 10 and take down the big money. Congrats on the 5k won in the Clutch Shot on Fanduel Bhdevault!!

    DAMNS congrats — I missed that ^…and this thread..

    Some really good info in here 2bh —- I rarely ever mess with cash games b/c the only goal is the perfect LU… and I have a wife and a college kid..lol….i just don’t screw with them much as policy

    FROM THURSDAY = $14K FD single entry DRIBBLER cash line 290.00; 100-man 50/50 FD 50th place (CASH LINE) scored 279.20

    TOP 50-50 score (1st) was 336.9, 2nd was 327.1, third 323.3
    DRIBBLER S-E .. top 3 to WIN had 364.0, 360.8 and 360-flat

    Never NOT put a CASH LU in some kind of CHEAP GPP – neva know when the NUTZ are gonna hit….

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Nice job^

    But this kinda proves our point? If you make good cash lineups, over the long run you should be making more in GPPs with that lineup than in cash because it only takes like 1 big night, especially given how close the two cash lines are.

    I build ‘safer’ type lineups that are better for cash. It’s just the way my mindset is.

    I play cash games so that on a night my lineup is just below the cash line in GPP’s, I don’t lose it all. So on a night I play $100 on a site. $70 of it is in cash games with about $50 of that being in head to heads. Then I throw $30 worth into GPP’s. If it cashes, great, it’s a bonus. But my goal is to not lose it all on one night.

    Basically the cash games are supplementing my GPP’s. Not everyone has the mind set for cash games though and that’s why I said everyone should figure out what is best for them. I seem to have plenty of nights where I min cash the 50/50’s and H2H’s yet don’t cash the GPP’s I play in. Those are the nights where it’s nice to get a decent amount of my money back instead of losing it all.

  • timc9842

    I play some single entry gpp’s for $1, 2, and 5. Also the $1 3 entry max, and I put a couple of entries into the big payout gpp. I enter a different lineup in all of those.

  • Landa501

    The real problem here is a topic that has been beaten to death, and despite that we still see no end in sight to the problem; lineup sharing and optimizing. Yesterday all the usual suspects had all the same lineups in cash on FanDuel, and obviously aren’t the least bit embarrassed or concerned with the fact that its clear at this point they can not come up with a lineup without using an optimizer. It was so bad yesterday that the double up payouts were actually well below 2X in some instances because once again Wakeywakey, hoop, empiremaker, chiptole, Teejay, moklovin, etc. all miraculously chose the same 9 players/DST and came up with the magical score of 137.82. The reality is a good number of these guys built their bankrolls through poker and could not compete in DFS on their best days if they did not have lineup builders to do the work for them. If you’ve spent enough time in the industry, you know who the sharps are and who is strictly relying on technology. Crain made a great post on Twitter a few weeks ago along the lines of taking credit for wins regardless of preparation methods, but at this point its clear who can think for themselves and who can not. I think the best solutions are either switch sites to FD or Yahoo and try and get as much action in there, or find a book that will let you get down enough action on player props to increase your expected EV by avoiding peer to peer “competition” and will reward you for doing your own homework and research.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Landa501 said...

    The real problem here is a topic that has been beaten to death, and despite that we still see no end in sight to the problem; lineup sharing and optimizing. Yesterday all the usual suspects had all the same lineups in cash on FanDuel, and obviously aren’t the least bit embarrassed or concerned with the fact that its clear at this point they can not come up with a lineup without using an optimizer. It was so bad yesterday that the cash line was actually a negative payout in some instances because once again Wakeywakey, hoop, empiremaker, chiptole, Teejay, moklovin, etc. all miraculously chose the same 9 players/DST and came up with the magical score of 137.82. The reality is a good number of these guys built their bankrolls through poker and could not compete in DFS on their best days if they did not have lineup builders to do the work for them. If you’ve spent enough time in the industry, you know who the sharps are and who the optimizers. Crain made a great post on Twitter a few weeks ago along the lines of taking credit for wins regardless of preparation methods, but at this point its clear who can think for themselves and who can not. I think the best solutions are either switch sites to FD or Yahoo and try and get as much action in there, or find a book that will let you get down enough action on player props to increase your expected EV by avoiding peer to peer “competition” and will reward you for doing your own homework and research.

    On Fanduel? They all ended with a score of 148.42 didn’t they? That’s the exact same lineup I had and I didn’t use an ‘optimizer’ and did not share information with anyone.

    The lineup was so easy to come up with. My QB choices were either Drew Brees or Lamar Jackson and I went with Jackson as I loved the matchup with Cincy and wasn’t sure if the Saints may just run the ball on the Falcons. Two RB’s were locks in Damien Williams and David Montgomery (after the Stafford news) that left me room to plug in Barkley. Receivers 2 of the locks were Thomas and Kirk. DJ Moore fit in well, allowing to plug in Kelce at TE. Browns were just a great choice as they were a home favorite and cheap.

    That’s the lineup soooo many top players had. The example I just showed you was a very solid ‘cash game’ lineup and it’s no surprise so many players landed on it. Had nothing to do with an ‘optimizer’ this time. Every one of the players in that lineup had a high ownership % in cash games as well. DJ Moore being the lowest at 31%. In cash games you are NEVER afraid of ownership, except maybe being afraid of NOT being on a high owned guy and he goes off. Such a different thought process than GPP’s.

  • Landa501

    I agree with a lot of what you said here, particularly about ownership and thought process. Of course in cash you are looking to play the best plays regardless of their popularity. In my opinion, there was absolutely, positively no reason to play DJ Moore in cash yesterday and Kelce has been a suboptimal play in cash all year but he got there yesterday because of a shovel pass. However, if those were what you thought were the best plays then god bless. But the biggest point is, and you said it yourself was that “they all ended with a score of 148.42.” That right there is the problem. There is no conceivable way that you can get that many people to sit down, look at a 10 game slate of NFL games, and they come up with the same QB, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, TE, a DST and on top of all of that the same RB, WR or TE in a flex position. It’s a statistical impossibility. Let’s not play coy, we know what’s going on here, call it for what it is. If you had a score of 148.42 you are part of the problem. But again, the solution for those who have an issue with it is to move your action elsewhere.

  • Jvanspro

    The solution is not to play cash. All these guys collude with one another.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Jvanspro said...

    The solution is not to play cash. All these guys collude with one another.

    It’s not collusion to build a cash game lineup with another player. Please stop throwing around words that are not true: https://www.draftkings.com/community-guidelines

    “You work closely with a friend on building the perfect lineup together” is an acceptable behavior according to DK’s guidelines.

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