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  • timc9842

    Has anyone else noticed that many of the cash lines are higher for 50/50s rather than GPPs? I haven’t really studied it too hard, but does anyone else find this to be true? If so, isn’t it wiser to start putting more money in GPPs? I would love to hear your thoughts on this subject!

  • gvn2fly1421

    Bhdevault, do you think it is a good look for the industry?

  • Njsum1

    @bhdevault said...

    It’s not collusion to build a cash game lineup with another player. Please stop throwing around words that are not true: https://www.draftkings.com/community-guidelines

    “You work closely with a friend on building the perfect lineup together” is an acceptable behavior according to DK’s guidelines.

    Just because something is allowed, does not mean it’s good. In this case good for the DFS ecosystem. I can drink myself into a coma if I wanted to, doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

    The fact is there’s really nothing the sites can do about it. You can’t stop people from using the same optimizer/projection system. You just can’t. If they subscribe to a content site, they have every right to use the optimal lineup if they want to. They pay for it.

    The solution as @jvanspro said is simple, don’t play cash.

    Or consistently be better than the projections/optimizers these players are using (which is extremely difficult). Or don’t play in cash games with players you know use the same lineup. Other than that I don’t see how the sites can really do anything about it, which is why they kind of have to allow it.

  • bhdevault

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    @gvn2fly1421 said...

    Bhdevault, do you think it is a good look for the industry?

    I have zero problem with friends working together to build a cash lineup.

    I used to with a guy for about a year until he moved on and found better players to work with. If one of the top players in the world wanted to work with you and build lineups would you say no? I’m betting 95% of the people who complain about it wouldn’t say not either.

  • NoLimits0

    As I said earlier, in the NBA (more so than other sports due to lower variance of outcomes), if you are a profitable player on average, and you submitted the SAME cash lineup into a double up and a GPP, over a large sample size, you will 95% be up more in GPPs than cash game. There are some exceptions but this is unequivocally true. This is because the min cash cutoffs are similar enough between the two but you have the upside in GPPs you don’t have in double ups. Ofc if you play like 1 cash lineup and 30 GPPs this might not hold since your other 29 GPPs are on average worse than your main lineup, but for 1 lineup if you had a choice, you would rather enter into single entry GPPs over double ups in the NBA.

  • NoLimits0

    I’ve addressed this issue many times. They don’t all collude but many do. It’s one thing to have the same cash lineup for 1 day when chalk is easy, but it’s another to have it over every day in both sites.

    It’s not a coincidence that wakeywakey, TeeJayorTJ, and like 3rd_and_schlong have the same cash lineup over both sites over the long run. The sad part is if you look at the GPP results you can see who’s actually the one wearing the pants. TeeJayorTJ for example is ranked almost 30 despite max entering all 3 major sports as well as PGA and entering high stakes, and that’s pretty bad whereas wakeywakey is nearly top 10…

    Another way to tell who’s good or who’s bad is a skew in their overall rank (which is volume weighted) vs TPOY rank

  • Jvanspro

    @bhdevault said...

    It’s not collusion to build a cash game lineup with another player. Please stop throwing around words that are not true: https://www.draftkings.com/community-guidelines

    “You work closely with a friend on building the perfect lineup together” is an acceptable behavior according to DK’s guidelines.

    I think it’s pretty clear you are towing the company line here. Either that or you think are all stupid.

    Multiple players with the same lineup on multiple sites over and over and over. We aren’t as dumb as you seem to think. I think it’s clear collusion. The best way to avoid it is to avoid the contests which these guy benefit from cheating, which is as I’ve said before avoid cash.

    A lot of these guys have massive swings in GPP play and do this in order to supplement droughts.

  • Landa501

    @Jvanspro said...

    I think it’s pretty clear you are towing the company line here. Either that or you think are all stupid.

    Multiple players with the same lineup on multiple sites over and over and over. We aren’t as dumb as you seem to think. I think it’s clear collusion. The best way to avoid it is to avoid the contests which these guy benefit from cheating, which is as I’ve said before avoid cash.

    A lot of these guys have massive swings in GPP play and do this in order to supplement droughts.

    Exactly. Defending the behavior just makes it worse. Just acknowledge the situation and the aforementioned people for what they are and move on. It’s not going to change.

  • Jvanspro

    @Landa501 said...

    Exactly. Defending the behavior just makes it worse. Just acknowledge the situation and the aforementioned people for what they are and move on. It’s not going to change.

    Ding ding.

  • blenderhd

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    @Landa501 said...

    But the biggest point is, and you said it yourself was that “they all ended with a score of 148.42.” That right there is the problem. There is no conceivable way that you can get that many people to sit down, look at a 10 game slate of NFL games, and they come up with the same QB, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, TE, a DST and on top of all of that the same RB, WR or TE in a flex position. It’s a statistical impossibility.

    Because most of the best DFS players don’t “sit down” and “look” at a slate then “come up” with their lineups for cash games. They use projection models. You could build one yourself too with the same source data and backtest it to an r-squared that matches exactly to these lineups.

    RG has reasonable projections for all sports. Carty sells his own projections for NFL and MLB. There are numerous other sites that offer projections as well. If the pricing on a slate is soft (which it was for NFL on FD yesterday), it’s a very high likelihood many different models would show the same optimal median build (which is the percentile score you’re aiming for in cash games). It’s like arguing that if 30 students in a class came up with the same answer on a math test for solving an equation, they had to be cheating off one another.

    I have never had any contact with Wakey ever.
    I have never had any contact with Hoop ever.
    I have never had any contact with Chipotle ever.
    I have never had any contact with Papagates ever.
    I have never had any contact with Moklovin ever.
    I have never had any contact with TeeJay ever.
    I have never had any contact with EM2 outside of jokes on Twitter.

    Yet a majority of the time I have the same exact cash lineup as many of them in NFL weekly and every single night in NBA. You say it’s a “statistical impossibility” but how is it so when I can reproduce it consistently without any contact with any of these users myself?

    If you have an issue with projection models (public or private), at least that’s a valid debate to have. But I doubt you can ever enforce, or if it’s even reasonable to enforce that users are barred from using math and a calculator to form their lineups versus simply selecting players off the top of their heads.

  • Landa501

    You just proved my point brother. You know why guys like BigT and Chop get the most respect? Because I’ll bet a dollar to a donut these are guys that are using projections as a part of their process, not the be all and end all of daily fantasy sports. You can tell those guys are watching games and forming lineups based on their own observations and thinking, while using projections as a guide to refine lineups. They’re combining their own knowledge with the use of projections and models; you can tell by their lineups and their thought process on the RG shows. You’d be a donkey not to use some projection or model based data but it shouldn’t be the entirety of your process like it is for a guy like Hoop, who readily admits to not paying attention for long periods of a fine at sports. All of these guys are more successful than I will ever be in the industry, and I’m not trying to tear anyone down, but again there are many different types of DFS players out there. Like the great Chop once said: “you keep projecting, I’ll keep collecting.”

  • NoLimits0

    @blenderhd said...

    Because most of the best DFS players don’t “sit down” and “look” at a slate then “come up” with their lineups for cash games. They use projection models. You could build one yourself too with the same source data and backtest it to an r-squared that matches exactly to these lineups.

    RG has reasonable projections for all sports. Carty sells his own projections for NFL and MLB. There are numerous other sites that offer projections as well. If the pricing on a slate is soft (which it was for NFL on FD yesterday), it’s a very high likelihood many different models would show the same optimal median build (which is the percentile score you’re aiming for in cash games). It’s like arguing that if 30 students in a class came up with the same answer on a math test for solving an equation, they had to be cheating off one another.

    I have never had any contact with Wakey ever.
    I have never had any contact with Hoop ever.
    I have never had any contact with Chipotle ever.
    I have never had any contact with Papagates ever.
    I have never had any contact with Moklovin ever.
    I have never had any contact with TeeJay ever.
    I have never had any contact with EM2 outside of jokes on Twitter.

    Yet a majority of the time I have the same exact cash lineup as many of them in NFL weekly and every single night in NBA. You say it’s a “statistical impossibility” but how is it so when I can reproduce it consistently without any contact with any of these users myself?

    If you have an issue with projection models (public or private), at least that’s a valid debate to have. But I doubt you can ever enforce, or if it’s even reasonable to enforce that users are barred from using math and a calculator to form their lineups versus simply selecting players off the top of their heads.

    Do you really? Because I don’t see you as part of the train with them yesterday for example in the double ups.

    Anyways the fact that all of you guys supposedly have the same lineups every week when the top pros like Youdacao and Awesemo and GoSixersGo don’t shows me a lot actually….

    Maybe you guys are using r squared when they are using machine learning…,could explain the difference in overall rank between your list of players and the absolute top players

  • blenderhd

    • 233

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    You’re more than welcome to respect one method and not the other. That’s up to you. It’s a financial market, so if you can use math to produce a 58%+ win rate in DFS cash games without much knowledge about sports at all, I don’t see anything intrinsically wrong with that. It’s not collusion, though.

    Some, like yourself, have the worldview that fantasy sports should be about “sports”, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a reality. Many old NBA veterans bemoan the fact the game now has little mid-range shots & post plays that they believe is “real basketball”, even though most teams have done the math to show it’s not the optimal way to score. Do we ban the Rockets from the NBA because all they do is drive the lane, chuck threes and win?

  • Landa501

    “Real sports” knowledge has a low correlation with DFS success, we know that. But again, it’s just a matter of what you personally respect as a DFS player. Most respect should go to the guys that can use their own thoughts as part of their daily/weekly process not just the slaves to the technology.

  • NoLimits0

    @blenderhd said...

    You’re more than welcome to respect one method and not the other. That’s up to you. It’s a financial market, so if you can use math to produce a 58%+ win rate in DFS cash games without much knowledge about sports at all, I don’t see anything intrinsically wrong with that. It’s not collusion, though.

    Some, like yourself, have the worldview that fantasy sports should be about “sports”, but that doesn’t necessarily make it a reality. Many old NBA veterans bemoan the fact the game now has little mid-range shots & post plays that they believe is “real basketball”, even though most teams have done the math to show it’s not the optimal way to score. Do we ban the Rockets from the NBA because all they do is drive the lane, chuck threes and win?

    You missed the sarcasm in my post. I’m not saying you talk to these other pros and work together. But instead what’s happening is you guys all use the same projection websites and optimizers and that’s why you guys get the same lineups. Whether that’s allowed or not is another question. I trust you aren’t actually “directly” colluding with anyone but more so indirectly by using the same websites for projections.

    You know why I know this. It’s because Awesemo doesn’t ever overlap with anyone because he has his own projections. There’s no way 10 people came up with their own projections and then happened to have the same lineup every week. Its actually statistically impossible for 10 people to work independently and come up with the exact same results every single week. It’s more like the 10 people use the same projections and optimizers, from a third party (fantasy cruncher right? Or bbm?), and that’s why it’s the same every week.

    So you say that stuff about r squared but I doubt you know what it even is. Because no r squared model woulda ever told you to pick David Montgomery or Damien Williams in any cash lineup yesterday. But fantasy crunchers projections might have…so my point is maybe stop using fantasy cruncher if you wanna be as good as youdacao or awesemo (not directly just towards you).

  • NoLimits0

    @Landa501 said...

    “Real sports” knowledge has a low correlation with DFS success, we know that. But again, it’s just a matter of what you personally respect as a DFS player. Most respect should go to the guys that can use their own thoughts as part of their daily/weekly process not just the slaves to the technology.

    You are also missing the point here. Real sports knowledge has nothing to do with this.

    Awesemo and youdacao probably don’t have great sports knowledge but the difference is they have their own projections. The thing about that huge list of players is they don’t even have their own projections they just take it off a third party website. That’s the difference no one actually cares about the real sports knowledge part. Some of the best people in tech have no coding knowledge (Steve Jobs). Some of the best people in finance have no finance knowledge but are good at identifying stat arb and mean reversion.

    Nothing to do with sports knowledge here. More to do with creating own projections vs using others and in this case everyone using the same third party projection and then claiming r squared to sound smart.

  • Jvanspro

    Do we really think these guys are all using the same projection model and just clicking optimize and going with it? I find that hard to believe. Nobody worth their weight is doing that. A lot of them are working together and we can talk about it all we want. It’s not going to change. The sites have shown they don’t care and will allow them to continue to do this. It’s best to just stay out of those contests.

    I use LineupHQ weekly but I guarantee there is zero chance anyone is coming up with same player pool or lineups that I am. Everything I do on it is custom and of my own doing.

  • NoLimits0

    @Jvanspro said...

    Do we really think these guys are all using the same projection model and just clicking optimize and going with it? I find that hard to believe. Nobody worth their weight is doing that. A lot of them are working together and we can talk about it all we want. It’s not going to change. The sites have shown they don’t care and will allow them to continue to do this. It’s best to just stay out of those contests.

    I use LineupHQ weekly but I guarantee there is zero chance anyone is coming up with same player pool or lineups that I am. Everything I do on it is custom and of my own doing.

    You give people way too much credit. Some may be working together but a lot of the trains you see is because everyone is literally clicking optimize to the same projections on the same website….

    This is also why these guys aren’t really winning anything long term despite all of them having maxing out and playing high stakes and on both sites and on all sports. The top 5 players usually have solo projections hence why they end up better than the optimize clickers. But that’s literally what they do. Saves a lot of time and the websites on average are ok.

  • NoLimits0

    Jvanspro if you don’t believe me sign up for another website I mentioned and click optimize and you’ll be duped with a lot of lineups, especially in NBA. Don’t worry these guys won’t be making much in the long run so they’ll slowly go away.

  • Njsum1

    @Jvanspro said...

    Do we really think these guys are all using the same projection model and just clicking optimize and going with it? I find that hard to believe. Nobody worth their weight is doing that. A lot of them are working together and we can talk about it all we want. It’s not going to change. The sites have shown they don’t care and will allow them to continue to do this. It’s best to just stay out of those contests.

    I use LineupHQ weekly but I guarantee there is zero chance anyone is coming up with same player pool or lineups that I am. Everything I do on it is custom and of my own doing.

    Honestly, I don’t know why this is even being discussed, it is what it is. The DFS sites can’t tell friends that they can’t make cash game lineups together (ie..discuss top plays) and they can’t tell content sites that they can’t offer projections. And therefore they can’t tell DFS players that they can’t use projections. That would be totally ridiculous, not to mention completely unenforceable.

    The solution is simple, if you can’t beat these projections at least 55% of the time, don’t play cash. Or pay for the projections. No one HAS to play cash games.

    Only reason I chimed in, is because I didn’t like the argument/suggestion, that if it’s allowed, it must be righteous.

  • NoLimits0

    @Njsum1 said...

    Honestly, I don’t know why this is even being discussed, it is what it is. The DFS sites can’t tell friends that they can’t make cash game lineups together (ie..discuss top plays) and they can’t tell content sites that they can’t offer projections. And therefore they can’t tell DFS players that they can’t use projections. That would be totally ridiculous, not to mention completely unenforceable.

    The solution is simple, if you can’t beat these projections at least 55% of the time, don’t play cash. Or pay for the projections. No one HAS to play cash games.

    Only reason I chimed in, is because I didn’t like the argument, that if it’s allowed, it must be righteous.

    I still want to know what r squared model people are using. That’s straight up the funniest thing in this post to me.

  • blenderhd

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    @NoLimits0 said...

    I still want to know what r squared model people are using. That’s straight up the funniest thing in this post to me.

    You can literally take their lineups and source data to recreate the model that would put that lineup as the most optimal median build.

  • Jvanspro

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Jvanspro if you don’t believe me sign up for another website I mentioned and click optimize and you’ll be duped with a lot of lineups, especially in NBA. Don’t worry these guys won’t be making much in the long run so they’ll slowly go away.

    I just find it difficult to believe people just click optimize a run with it. Why even bother if that’s your strategy.

    You may be right though. Either way I’m sticking to my GPP life.

  • NoLimits0

    @blenderhd said...

    You can literally take their lineups and source data to recreate the model that would put that lineup as the most optimal median build.

    Well yea that model is an integer programming model used in linear optimization. I’m familiar with how it works.

    The point I was trying to make was that the original median projections you talk about are not the result of any complicated strategy. It’s more so the result of third party websites who on average do an ok job with projections.

    Then you just run the linear programming model to optimize with constraints. It’s a pretty easy technique to do on excel. Wikipedia should tell you if you google linear programming.

  • NoLimits0

    @Jvanspro said...

    I just find it difficult to believe people just click optimize a run with it. Why even bother if that’s your strategy.

    You may be right though. Either way I’m sticking to my GPP life.

    Because on average it’s been decently profitable over the last few years but it won’t be since the bad players will quit or also start doing it so it’s becoming less and less profitable.

  • blenderhd

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    @NoLimits0 said...

    Because on average it’s been decently profitable over the last few years but it won’t be since the bad players will quit or also start doing it so it’s becoming less and less profitable.

    I agree with this completely, the long term profitability will end up dipping under the rake line eventually as more and more users who play suboptimal builds quit playing cash games. However, It’s not the argument being debated on whether or not it is collusion.

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