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  • timc9842

    Has anyone else noticed that many of the cash lines are higher for 50/50s rather than GPPs? I haven’t really studied it too hard, but does anyone else find this to be true? If so, isn’t it wiser to start putting more money in GPPs? I would love to hear your thoughts on this subject!

  • DFSx42

    if they aren’t making money then they aren’t pros by definition, you clearly shouldn’t be a dictionary

  • NoLimits0

    The best part is the part where you try to justify Steve Jobs can code by quoting a some Business Insider article online. Do you even know what coding is? I’m a senior software developer…

    A conductor doesn’t need to know how to play any instruments to be a conductor. Just like Steve Jobs didn’t need to know how to code to lead Apple. But the best part is how you try to justify Steve actually knew how to code when he admitted he didn’t in his Stanford commencement speech as well as Woz saying he actually didn’t code a single line for Apple.

    Coding isn’t the same as product design man. If you are going to cite a Business Insider at least know what coding actually is.

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    if they aren’t making money then they aren’t pros by definition, you clearly shouldn’t be a dictionary

    You just said yourself a pro doesn’t mean a successful player? You want me to quote that too?

  • DFSx42

    i quoted a steve wozniak quote… jfc man…

    you said some real ignorant stuff here and it just keeps on rolling

    if they aren’t making money they aren’t pros, you used the wrong term from the get go, just drop it and move on

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    big difference between being successful at dfs and being a pro with a six figure investment each slate

    i think that’s the problem, we’re fundamentally talking about two very different people, i’m talking about pros and you’re talking about someone who’s had some success

    Here’s your defintion. You said a pro isn’t the same as a successful player so you can be a pro (play every night) and be a losing player.

    The whole point is I gave a honest answer to the OP, had some good conversations about this topic, and because you can’t help defending your buddy Alex (even though I was praising him for coming up with everyone on his own, the only “negative” thing I said was he didn’t have as much sports knowledge as others like Bif, but it doesn’t take away from his success) you have to derail the main point of the thread.

  • DFSx42

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You just said yourself a pro doesn’t mean a successful player? You want me to quote that too?

    yes, please quote something i never said… jfc you are just digging a hole now, you should quit while ahead

    stating a successful player isn’t necessarily a pro doesn’t mean a pro doesn’t have to be successful

    again, it begs the question how they could earn a living off dfs as a profession if they weren’t successful

    just stop man, this is embarassing

    i’m done responding, it’s clearly pointless

  • DFSx42

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    the literal definition of pro is professional as in that’s what they do for a living, it’s not slang for someone who does well

    i agree, only a few dozen out there who are professional dfs players

    that’s what we’ve been discussing and all those people understand sports at a high level and none are copy/pasting public projections

    maybe this is the source of contention? people use pro as a generic word for successful?

    This post and your previous post. Your own definition of a pro. You just said someone who does this for a living, regardless if they are successful or not.

    Good thing I got this post and the previous one above quoted so you can’t change it.

  • NoLimits0

    The sad part is your first defintion of a pro is correct, but I bet you want to change it now cause you look silly with your responses.

    A pro is just someone who plays full time for a living, regardless if they are successful or not.

    As I mentioned that second group of players who have the same lineup every night (group or third party optimizer projections) are still pros, just not profitable pros like Awesemo or youdacao who come up with their own projections (but doesn’t mean they have more sports knowledge than even people on this forum)

    Pretty sure almost 100% of people reading would see what I wrote in the last 2 pages as sensible and logical. It’s ok you can edit your previous posts if you want. But since I already quoted them you probably shouldn’t would make you look worse.

  • DFSx42

    dude… i’m done here…

    just ask yourself how it’s possible for them to do it for a living if they aren’t wildly successful at it… i honestly am not responding anymore because I don’t want to my inbox flooded with warning not to use profanity

    that gif above accurately sums up my thoughts

    but seriously, before you respond further, show a few people that same exact quote and see if you can find a single person who will agree with your interpretation of it…

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    dude… i’m done here…

    just ask yourself how it’s possible for them to do it for a living if they aren’t wildly successful at it… i honestly am not responding anymore because I don’t want to my inbox flooded with warning not to use profanity

    that gif above accurately sums up my thoughts

    but seriously, before you respond further, show a few people that same exact quote and see if you can find a single person who will agree with your interpretation of it…

    It’s called those pros will “retire” see SaahilSud or Condia or EHafner or Ryazan when they can’t sustain it. It doesn’t mean they weren’t
    pros during the downstreak…cmon man be better than that.

    You work at a Startup according to your Twitter. Are all Startups profitable? Does it shut down immediately because it isn’t?

    It’s incredible because this was DISCUSSED by me and blenderhd in the thread already before you even responded at all. Can you please read the thread before making statements like this. We came to the conclusion these guys will be weeded out especially once more and more start using the exact same third party optimizer. This is literally in a previous post. Like why do you think I brought up Awesemo and youdacao to begin with? The whole point of bringing them up was to show their sustained profitability because they have their own projections. You think I just randomly juxtaposed them with the pros who have the same lineup every night?

    You also literally said in multiple previous posts I quoted saying a pro isn’t the same as a successful player. These are your words.

    Edit I’m also done discussing this. I don’t even understand why you even felt the need to prop up Awesemo’s “sports knowledge” as the thing to start this entire convo. I was praising him for coming up with his own projections and the only small knock I had was saying he doesn’t have as much sports knowledge as other pros (or even some forum members) and I was saying it in context to Landa’s previous post and you take that entire conversation as “Awesemo sucks”.

  • superstars92

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    I was going to post the Michael Jackson gif, but actually it seems like this is a serious discussion. I’ll go back to my finance example I talked about before.

    @NoLimits: I didn’t mean it to be insulting when I said it was entertaining. I thought it was an interesting discussion actually. It’s a very sad reality (especially if you like sports), but having great sports knowledge probably has the least correlation to success at DFS than any other factor. Golf is probably the one sport this isn’t true in (hence why top “pros” however you guys define them, aren’t as good in that) beacuse golf has less reliable data. Data analysis, technical skills, and being able to really optimize and submit lineups is a far more important factor than sports knowledge in success for DFS

    I know this because it happened in finance. Back like 15 years ago, most Wall Street people had Econ/Finance degrees but now, there’s a seismic shift to Math/Computer Science degrees. That’s because the most profitable firms in the past 15 years aren’t your old garden variety long/short fundamental firms but rather your pure arb, high-speed, technical firms. Most people also see this shift too so that’s why there is less long/short hedge fund money now as people just put it in a passive fund like SPY which makes more on average. Anyhow, it’s nice to know like AMZN’s balance sheet and how much they make out of AWS, but it’s nicer to know what it’s price was 1 ms ago, 1 min ago, what it’s beta with SPY is, what it’s correlation with related basket of stocks is, etc. (all technical details requiring no finance knowledge), since the latter is where the money is made these days.

    The reason is because a computer is more powerful than the human mind. Yes, it’s a sad reality especially if you are a traditionalist, but you see this in actual sports front offices too. Think about the technology that is being used these days compared to just 10-15 years ago. You ever get bullpen games? Constant 30+ 3s attemps a game? Next gen stats for NFL? Just like 10-15 years ago?

    Ok so brings me back to fantasy sports. If you had to choose like what to be good at, you’ll rather be good at technical details than sports knowledge. It doesn’t hurt to have both, but I’m willing to bet all the “pros” being alluded to here all are above average technically, but I bet not all are above average in sports knowledge.

    This is why I really should submit for a live contest and meet these “pros.” I just want to see what they are like in, and I can give you guys some first hand evidence. Like I’ll try talking more traditional sports with them (yea go Adrian Dantley) and see what they say.

  • superstars92

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    @DFSx42 said...

    maybe this is the source of contention? people use pro as a generic word for successful?

    Going back to our conversation before, I was just saying I think a successful person is someone we are talking about here. Using “successful” is a better word than “pro.” My point is you can be successful despite not knowing much about sports with my friend’s example with Cousins. If some successful people are then pros, it should hold some pros can be successful and also be pros without knowing much about sports? Unless you are saying once they take the step to becoming a pro, they also take the step of gaining sports knowledge? I don’t see that as a necessity, as with my finance example above.
    The converse should also hold too I believe (unsuccessful people -> sports knoweldge)

  • blenderhd

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    @NoLimits0 said...

    Why don’t you also read the back and forth between me and blenderhd (who is a pretty successful player possibly a semi pro?). Clearly you are wrong. Most pros do in fact use public projections (or group projections) as a baseline for all their choices if not some just outright from time to time. That’s the whole basis of why so many people have the same lineup every night.

    As one of these “pros” (if you want to call me that), I do in fact use premium publicly available projections (multiple sources) as the basic legwork of the sports-related research. The margins, however, from projection model to projection model could often be razor thin. One minute +/- on a few players’ projections could produce fairly different 2v2 or 3v3 builds and you could run 20 optimals from each and get median builds that are all within 2 points of one another.

    This is why I don’t blindly play the 1st optimal build from one specific projection model, nor even the 1st from an aggregate of them, although in the lower stakes ($1-$3), it may actually be profitable to do so. From this point in the process, however, I think the skill comes in to making the best decisions based on this very basic legwork into what stands to rate as the optimal lineup construction for cash games that slate. It could end up being one of the projection model’s 1st optimal. It could be the 6th one in a different model’s. It could be the 3rd one from an aggregated one. It could be something not even in the top 20 anywhere.

    Some pros have their own model and strictly play its 1st optimal every slate long-term and that’s it. Some actually use premium public projections as a baseline for their constructions, but still make +EV decisions deviating from them to produce a positive ROI. I think both are absolutely valid approaches. If you’re showing a long-term profit off of doing whatever it is that you do, how can anyone possibly say that it’s wrong?

  • superstars92

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    @blenderhd: sorry, I kind of jumped onto this discussion late (I was more intrigued about the sports knowledge part), but is anyone actually arguing that pros don’t use baseline projections from pubic optimizer models? I don’t know if that was what DFSx42 was trying to say because the whole conversation digressed in a way that was hard to understand (he made some joke about just using public optimizers and starting a website but I didn’t really get it). Sorry that entire conversation flew past my head, the sports knowledge one was more interesting to me.

    I just assumed every single person (especially if you are a pro and have strong technological knowledge to be able to combine projections) would be doing something like that. As NoLimits mentions, some may be doing it much better by incorporating their own projections and as you mention, some may just choose to play the 1st optimial lineup (resulting in the same lineup). Or you can do a combination of the two which is what you mention and say put an overlay to the public optimizers and come up with more unique lineups. I think the latter should be the baseline case for most pros in GPPs, hence why we still get chalk but like 1 off chalk.

    I think we all agree on that, it’s just that maybe the discussion between others is whether it’s right or wrong? I personally dislike it as someone who has my own projections and who will pretty much never overlap ever with anyone because it’s just annoying going to a 11 man double up and it becomes a 3 man double up with simlar lineups (who wouldn’t be annoyed you signed up for a 11 man double up), but I don’t think it’s really enforceable. The reason it’s not really enforceable is because those are public projections and avaliable to anyone. However, I do agree the margins are razor thin so you shouldn’t be winning over the long-long run with this strategy.

    Anyways, more interested in the sports knowledge part. It’ll help me understand whether I play Cedi Osman or Darrius Garland tonight. You have thoughts?

  • DFSx42

    superstar, we were never talking about “anyone who’s profitable” we were specifically talking about pros – ie people who play dfs as their primary source of income, you’re talking about something different altogether

    so is the other guy apparently since he’s included someone who never played DFS professionally but rather made a name for himself because he ran up massive credit card debt to play high stakes briefly and lost it all and ran into legal trouble as a result… ryazan was a lol cautionary tale and nobody in their right mind would ever call that donkey a pro

    and thanks blenderhd, it’s absolutely ludicrous for people to state that they are just button mashing and not making alterations or deviations even when they use public projections as a baseline and I simply don’t understand why some people insist that

    A. the top players are doing just that
    B. for whatever reason, they themselves choose not to do it too

  • superstars92

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    @DFSx42 said...

    superstar, we were never talking about “anyone who’s profitable” we were specifically talking about pros, you’re talking about something different altogether, so is the other guy apparently since he’s included someone who never played DFS professionally but rather made a name for himself because he ran up massive credit card debt to play high stakes briefly and lost it all and ran into legal trouble as a result… ryazan was a lol cautionary tale and nobody in their right mind would ever call that donkey a pro

    Haha I’m so lost. I was just saying this (flow chart time)

    successful players -> limited sports knoweldge can be true which can result in successful players -> becoming a pro -> limited sports knowledge,

    or is your baseline case once a successful player becomes a pro they also gain sports knowledge (this is the interesting one)

    I’m so confused haha. Anyways, my advice is if you wanna be great at DFS, not only study the sports part (actually you shoudn’t study it you should have a natural passion), but the analytical part since that’s more important for mass entering lineups.

  • superstars92

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    @blenderhd said...

    Some pros have their own model and strictly play its 1st optimal every slate long-term and that’s it. Some actually use premium public projections as a baseline for their constructions, but still make +EV decisions deviating from them to produce a positive ROI. I think both are absolutely valid approaches.

    Yea there should be 3 types of players

    1) Make your own projections
    2) Take the optimizer projections as a baseline and mix in your plays
    3) Strictly take the optimizer projections

    I think 3) happens in cash games, but I think 2) happens in GPPs more (you agree?).

    1) can happen with a few people but then they would also have unique cash and GPP lineups. There’s a chance 1) can overlap with 3) in very obvious chalk nights.

    Oh the more interesting case is when you want to play 2) instead of 3) if you somehow think that ownership matters in cash games (by choosing the 2nd optimial over the 1st optimal so you can jump an entire train).

    The part about it being right or wrong, it’s just annoying since I do 1), but I have to acknowledge even though I think it’s annoying, it can’t be enforced.

  • DFSx42

    superstar:

    that other guy said some of the pro players (ie a few dozen people who’s sole source of income is from DFS and profit by 6 figures annually) don’t know much about sports and or just make their lineups by going to a place like rotogrinders and playing whichever top lineup their public optimizer spits out

    neither are true

    and as blenderhd explained, even those who use public projections, they still make a lot of independent decisions so they still are rarely just grabbing the default lineups those projections would spit out – they use them as a baseline for decision making, but are still making their own +EV decisions

    that’s it

    this was never a discussion about anything else and has nothing to do with a losing player, a break even player or a successful player, the other guy said something dumb and i told him he was wrong, that’s it.

    but to answer your flow chart, no, it’s literally impossible for anyone to become a pro unless they have an incredibly high level understanding of what they do, there’s a reason it’s the same few guys at the top each week despite that hundreds of thousands of people compete in this each week and that’s because they have a massive edge over the field and they wouldn’t have that edge if they didn’t understand the game at a very high level

    but for your boogie thing, i personally don’t own a tv, don’t watch espn, don’t engage in the “pop culture” side of sports. I simply watch streamed games (for fun) and look at the data and use my model to make predictions. as a result, I’m often way behind the times on how to pronounce a player’s name or even knowing what their nickname is etc etc, but I’ll still happily take h2h action from someone who does because that knowledge is just pop culture fluff and not at all related to understanding of the player, the game the play or the fantasy points they will create

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    hat other guy said some of the pro players (ie a few dozen people who’s sole source of income is from DFS and profit by 6 figures annually) don’t know much about sports and or just make their lineups by going to a place like rotogrinders and playing whichever top lineup their public optimizer spits ou

    I wasn’t going to post here but you said you weren’t either and coming back to the convo again I see…so I just had to respond.

    WRONG again. I never said what you just said. I said SOME pros take the optimizer projections and that’s why they have the same lineup. That’s so logical. I said OTHER pros like awesemo and youdacao make their own projections which allows for more long term success if they are good at making those projections. Go ahead right on the first page. Guess you didn’t read again.

    Next my other post was clearly “sure awesemo and youdacao probably don’t have as much sports knowledge as others…” read my post first page. I like you twist that into “having no sports knowledge” when I’m just saying they don’t have as much as other pros that were mentioned by Landa or as some forum members here like Bif in golf.

    Boy you make a great lawyer.

  • NoLimits0

    @DFSx42 said...

    , i personally don’t own a tv, don’t watch espn, don’t engage in the “pop culture” side of sports. I simply watch streamed games (for fun) and look at the data and use my model to make predictions. as a result, I’m often way behind the times on how to pronounce a player’s name or even knowing what their nickname is etc etc, but I’ll still happily take h2h action from someone who does because that knowledge is just pop culture fluff and not at all related to understanding of the player, the game the play or the fantasy points they will create

    Thanks for making my point once again!

    You clearly also don’t know the difference between DFS knowledge and sports knowledge which was the whole point I was making.

  • superstars92

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    @NoLimits: is your definition of “sports knowledge” the pop culture part of it, such as knowing the players/colleges/coaches, playing the actual game, etc. (it seems like it right given how you talk about Bif and how was a semi-pro/knows the players)

    @DFSx42: is your definition of “sports knoweldge” the technical part of it, such as knowing like 3PT%, eFG%, defensive rating, fantasy points, etc. (it seems like it given your previous post that was quoted above in terms of talking about analytics and how you can beat these “pop culture” guys in DFS)

    I mean you guys just don’t have the same defintion of sports knowledge…this is how this whole conversation started? I wrote all that above for nothing?!?!? Sigh…

    Wow cmon you guys might even be in agreement…you both just didn’t understand each other’s definition of “sports knowledge…” I bet it’s the same case with “pros”

    End of conversation problem solved.

  • DFSx42

    nowhere would i include the players/colleges/coaches and playing the actual game as pop culture, that’s all very relevant information

    i was talking about what someone’s nickname is what the recent “hot take” was as ESPN desperately tries to fill non broadcast air with steamy commentary

    just watch this where cuban points out how the espn guys are disconnected with reality in their analysis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9w_XUQyJJQ

    just to avoid a future argument, i’m not saying those espn guys don’t understand basketball, i’m saying that when you need to fill a dozen hours of non broadcast air time each day it’s a whole lot more compelling for the audience to say “lebron just didn’t want it” than to explain the nuance of a defensive scheme shutting him down – i don’t know if the espn commentators even believe what they say half the time, they are trying to create a dynamic product that keeps you watching, if you want pop culture you watch espn commentary, if you want real analysis, you go elsewhere

    nobody is going to watch a skip bayless or stephen a smith segment and leave it better prepared for their upcoming DFS slate, same with whether or not they watch shaqtin a fool – that is the pop culture part of sports that is totally irrelevant to understanding of the game and fantasy production but apparently since i don’t watch stephen a smith i know nothing about basketball lol

    for what it’s worth, i played hockey pretty seriously growing up and that is my best dfs sport as well, having played it so much, it does help a little bit, but it’s not why I’m good at hockey, if i were to average 100 points per lineup normally, having played it probably adds an extra point to 101 points per night instead because I can better understand the dynamics behind the data – there’s definitely far greater edges than 1% though, for example, last year I dedicated the NBA all star break to reworking my NHL model and made a huge breakthrough and found some methodologies to significantly improve the accuracy of my projections – this is from being an analytical person who was able to better work out the model and gave a far greater edge than my history as a hockey player ever would give me

  • DFSx42

    Also, the sport i know the least about is golf and that’s not surprisingly my worst sport and the one I play the least and for the lowest stakes as a result

    I 100% struggle to put together a good model for that because of both high variance and constant course changes make it notoriously difficult to project, but I also don’t have the expertise to really make a stand on something. My model independently often output a cash line very similar to many of the top pros but finding success in gpp was very fleeting.

    Having said that, I’ve still likely read and know more about a lot of the analytics of golf now than the average dfser, but given that my actual knowledge of golf is so sparse, that data knowledge isn’t all that useful.

    I hope to keep learning and eventually get there, but I have no expectations that’ll happen any time soon.

    Knowledge of the game is a massive factor and it doesn’t matter how analytical you are it how good you are with the data, if you don’t understand the game at a high level then you’ll always find success elusive.

  • NoLimits0

    Hey man I’ve got nothing against you. You probably are a great player better than most of us here. But you really are proving my point with a lot of your above posts. Like you mention you play hockey but the biggest change to your model was more of a technical thing where being an analytical person gave you a bigger advantage than you playing hockey. This is pretty much the whole point I was trying to make. No one is denying you or Awesemo are great players, but their greatness doesn’t come from sports knowledge but being great analytically and technically. Sports knowledge is important but they don’t need to have as much as say a Bif in golf to be great at DFS golf. If you read what you said in your last paragraph in your 2nd to last post, that’s my exact point that started all this.

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