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  • gnicholas0225

    Soft pricing and a lack of a flex spot means that basically every single night, the best value plays are 95% owned in cash games, and 20-50% of the field has the exact same lineup.

    Using tonight as an example, I came up with an identical lineup as roughly 40% of the field (Kemba, Teague, Beal, Wiggins, Brown, Brown, Tatum, Bertans, Dieng), including numerous pros, we all cashed, and yet I lost 90% of my entries because there was like a 40 way tie. I’m not in any way saying that my lineup took some genius to create, in fact, quite the opposite, it was the most straightforward play to make, so everyone made it.

    FanDuel seriously needs to do something, because there’s no point in playing cash games with them anymore. Everything usually comes down to 1, maybe 2 spots that you can use to differentiate yourself, and even then, there’s a good chance tons of others made the same picks. They need to, at the very least, add a Flex spot and see if that helps matters.

  • madmanjayWV

    Yep, that’s today’s DFS Ecosytem on FD.

    I’ve seen some pretty steady and solid cash game players all but completely scale back on the cash game side….

    Pick and pray for a GPP takedown..stick to SINGLE entry (Higher the buy-in better odds) and play smaller GPPs or smaller max entry GPPs…

    I never rarely messed with “CASH” games…….it’s just that OBVIOUS plays ARE sometimes obvious, but yeah, mis-pricing of #AYDS also has been a huge problem..I hear that a lot from where I hang out @ in the FDC

    However, that greatly benefits the ELITE 1% of whom DFS sites cater to, so you gotta consider both sides…at least GPP speaking, IMO.

  • bigez952

    Welcome to DFS 2019 where everyone is using an optimizer and if you can’t consistently beat the “optimal” lineup cash games are not for you.

  • Njsum1

    @bigez952 said...

    Welcome to DFS 2019 where everyone is using an optimizer and if you can’t consistently beat the “optimal” lineup cash games are not for you.

    I don’t even mind the soft pricing. Just means scores will be higher.

    I’ve recommended this for FD many times, as OP stated, they need a flex spot or two or multipositional eligibility. It’s simply more fun to build a lineup when you can wriggle things around, makes it feel like more of a puzzle. Not to mention it will certainly help with dupes.

    I prefer no late swap, yet due to lack of a flex and multi-position eligibility I almost exclusively play on DK. If they don’t want multipositional eligibility they could do…

    1pg
    1sg
    1g
    1sf
    1pf
    1f
    1C
    2 util

  • bigez952

    @Njsum1 said...

    I don’t even mind the soft pricing. Just means scores will be higher.

    I’ve recommended this for FD many times, as OP stated, they need a flex spot or two or multipositional eligibility. It’s simply more fun to build a lineup when you can wriggle things around, makes it feel like more of a puzzle. Not to mention it will certainly help with dupes.

    I prefer no late swap, yet due to lack of a flex and multi-position eligibility I almost exclusively play on DK.

    That is an interesting take as Hoop on Twitter was making the exact opposite argument yesterday on Twitter that DK has too much roster flexibility allowing players to jam in all of the best value plays resulting in everyone having the same lineup.

    In my opinion as long as sites are allowed to sell projection models and optimizers there will always be a mass amount of shared lineups as there are lots of lazy people out there who will just play the “optimal” in cash every night without any thought of their own. You can do whatever you want on pricing and roster flexibility but the results will be the same when you push optimize. Its a tough issue as doing that isn’t technically against the rules but I think in order to be successful in 2019 you just have to understand that cash games are now a head to head vs. the optimal and if you want to succeed you need to be able to beat that.

  • Landa501

    It has nothing to do with pricing or position requirements and everything to do with the optimizer trains. Every night I go through the lineups in the single entries from $50 and up and the same people have the same lineups every night because they are using optimizers. Very few left are still using an ounce of their brain. I’ve called out their names many times before. Again, I check every single night and every night its the same thing. Changing pricing or positional requirements will do no good, because the optimizers will adjust and players will copy the lineups accordingly. I’ve also said many times that it’s been going on for years and will never change. This remains the case.

  • Landa501

    @bigez952 said...

    That is an interesting take as Hoop on Twitter was making the exact opposite argument yesterday on Twitter that DK has too much roster flexibility allowing players to jam in all of the best value plays resulting in everyone having the same lineup.

    In my opinion as long as sites are allowed to sell projection models and optimizers there will always be a mass amount of shared lineups as there are lots of lazy people out there who will just play the “optimal” in cash every night without any thought of their own. You can do whatever you want on pricing and roster flexibility but the results will be the same when you push optimize. Its a tough issue as doing that isn’t technically against the rules but I think in order to be successful in 2019 you just have to understand that cash games are now a head to head vs. the optimal and if you want to succeed you need to be able to beat that.

    This is gospel. And Hoop doesnt have a leg to stand on in this argument because he is the poster boy for using optimizer lineups.

  • Njsum1

    @bigez952 said...

    That is an interesting take as Hoop on Twitter was making the exact opposite argument yesterday on Twitter that DK has too much roster flexibility allowing players to jam in all of the best value plays resulting in everyone having the same lineup.

    In my opinion as long as sites are allowed to sell projection models and optimizers there will always be a mass amount of shared lineups as there are lots of lazy people out there who will just play the “optimal” in cash every night without any thought of their own. You can do whatever you want on pricing and roster flexibility but the results will be the same when you push optimize. Its a tough issue as doing that isn’t technically against the rules but I think in order to be successful in 2019 you just have to understand that cash games are now a head to head vs. the optimal and if you want to succeed you need to be able to beat that.

    I don’t disagree, mpe or a flex probably won’t help much with optimizer trains, I just prefer it.

    I do think mpe and a flex or 2 helps those who don’t use optimizers be able to differentiate or pivot in a way that is that has a higher expected value in GPP’s. I don’t play cash anyway, so I’m not really concerned with that.

  • ValuableTrader

    This is why I bought a premium membership and The Blitz. I should of done it sooner, way sooner. It’s either you pay money for these tools for the best optimal lineup(s) for cash games or you’ll get beat 70-85% of the time. If you’re a week by week, here and there player then ok if you hit right but like poker DFS is all about profits over a a period of time.

    I hate that it has come down to this, but eventually data/engineering was going to dominate anyway. Takes the fun out of it for me personally. I don’t even need to do any research anymore really.

    I love DFS, sports and loved creating my “own” lineups but after loosing thousands I said screw it, wasn’t fun anymore I was loosing by like 50+ each week. I was down $8k in the first half of 2019, got these tools and as of today I’m up $1500 on the year. How about that swing? It’s not rocket science, it’s just figuring this industry out. I played for years before I realized what it took to win and how basically knowing your sports means nothing. It’s about data, period!

    My point if you can’t clearly see it is you either get the tools/optimizers or you’re going to lose money over time period in cash games. You can sit back and try busting us at 10-15% win rate each week but unless you have money to blow I think that would be pretty dumb. Like I said it sucks it came to this but until FD/DK do something about it this will continue to happen.

  • jayzee666

    So I should be using the optimizers to break even? Might have to try that out. I can live with that!!

  • SkateFiend

    @Landa501 said...

    It has nothing to do with pricing or position requirements and everything to do with the optimizer trains. Every night I go through the lineups in the single entries from $50 and up and the same people have the same lineups every night because they are using optimizers. Very few left are still using an ounce of their brain. I’ve called out their names many times before. Again, I check every single night and every night its the same thing. Changing pricing or positional requirements will do no good, because the optimizers will adjust and players will copy the lineups accordingly. I’ve also said many times that it’s been going on for years and will never change. This remains the case.

    The position requirements actually do matter a bit, at least for NBA. Fantasydraft lets you pick 3 guards, 3 f/cs, and 2 util positions. Given that you don’t have to fill a SG of SF spot (the weakest positions) some players will be 0% owned while others will be 60-70% owned. Their GPP contests are train central because the roster flexibility makes optimization easier.

    In contrast FD will make you fill out two SG, SF, and PF spots. Getting 6 players to reach at least their floor is a near impossible task, and the forward positions are the most volatile source of points in DFS. Most mid tier forwards are basically Terry Rozier. So ownership will steered in a certain way accordingly.

    Optimization rule NBA because roster selection require fewer pieces and at production at certain level is actually predictable. You plug in value around certain players (studs, high floor quality players) in the NBA more than any other sports. If you pay up for the best pitching in MLB and try to take your chances on hitters, you have a decent chance at min cash or something a little better. I have no problem with that. In the NBA you have no choice but to go studs and duds in some slates and even then you can just flame out.

  • durbinjag

    Verey well stated. I agree 100%.

  • Aftereffect

    @SkateFiend said...

    The position requirements actually do matter a bit, at least for NBA. Fantasydraft lets you pick 3 guards, 3 f/cs, and 2 util positions.

    And yet, it’s no better on that site — if anything, it’s even worse.

    (See, e.g., https://www.fantasydraft.com/contest/1597422/)

    And people need to stop being so naive about it; as there is definitely a great deal of multi-accounting going on in the single-entry 50/50’s. That’s just a matter of common sense let alone odds of probability when one lineup after another is in the exact same order despite there being TWO flex slots available. It becomes even more obvious when optimizer’s all offer up the same player, that particular player is a late-scratch and, as if by miracle, all the same people with the exact same lineup just all happen to pivot to the exact same replacement option despite there being 4-6 other options one could pivot to. Wasn’t that part of the last Chipotle/papagates discussion on here? Whether it was just one of them doing both of their lineups? If you’re sold on that theory, then why would they be the only ones capable of perpetrating such a scheme? Like a virus, it’s going on everyday and the sites know it — they just choose to ignore it.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Pretty much already covered here:

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/pro-s-without-optimizer-s-or-website-projections-3222925?page=3

    ValuableTrader is just giving you a personal evidence of how it works, but I’m sure most people do this and don’t talk about it. Only him and NoLimits0 talk a lot about it, and obviously they have made a ton ever since they started using it probably.

    Don’t let anyone fool you that some of these “pros” actually know even the rules of basketball.

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    Don’t let anyone fool you that some of these “pros” actually know even the rules of basketball

    it all depends on the contest and the stakes. If you were putting 5 grand on a single lineup, would you learn the rules or no? If you were in a live final, would you play the chalk or not?

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jjwd said...

    it all depends on the contest and the stakes. If you were putting 5 grand on a single lineup, would you learn the rules or no? If you were in a live final, would you play the chalk or not?

    What rules are we talking about here? I was more referring to the obscure rules a very passionate basketball fan would know. Like G league rules, two-way contracts, or even something like dead-ball violations/out of bounds violationes/away from the play fouls/etc….like no one really needs to learn those. Those are useless for DFS but a very passionate basketball fan would know it.

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    What rules are we talking about here? I was more referring to the obscure rules a very passionate basketball fan would know. Like G league rules, two-way contracts, or even something like dead-ball violations/out of bounds violationes/away from the play fouls/etc….like no one really needs to learn those. Those are useless for DFS but a very passionate basketball fan would know it.

    my assertion is that at high stakes everyone is a passionate basketball fan- in one way or another. Different skill sets and mindframes can all pay off.

  • NoLimits0

    @ValuableTrader said...

    This is why I bought a premium membership and The Blitz. I should of done it sooner, way sooner. It’s either you pay money for these tools for the best optimal lineup(s) for cash games or you’ll get beat 70-85% of the time. If you’re a week by week, here and there player then ok if you hit right but like poker DFS is all about profits over a a period of time.

    I hate that it has come down to this, but eventually data/engineering was going to dominate anyway. Takes the fun out of it for me personally. I don’t even need to do any research anymore really.

    I love DFS, sports and loved creating my “own” lineups but after loosing thousands I said screw it, wasn’t fun anymore I was loosing by like 50+ each week. I was down $8k in the first half of 2019, got these tools and as of today I’m up $1500 on the year. How about that swing? It’s not rocket science, it’s just figuring this industry out. I played for years before I realized what it took to win and how basically knowing your sports means nothing. It’s about data, period!

    My point if you can’t clearly see it is you either get the tools/optimizers or you’re going to lose money over time period in cash games. You can sit back and try busting us at 10-15% win rate each week but unless you have money to blow I think that would be pretty dumb. Like I said it sucks it came to this but until FD/DK do something about it this will continue to happen.

    Bingo I’ve been preaching this for a while now if you have read my posts. I was doing all of that to help people. Unlike a lot of dfs players I just play for fun and the experience since the money doesn’t mean that much to me so I don’t mind giving away info (not trying to brag but my job pays a decent amount so an extra 50k on the side or whatever is trivial), and what you mentioned is something I stumbled on months ago. If you have followed my posts that’s something I pretty much have emphasized to anyone who would listen.

    I found that the nba cash rate using my combined optimizer + a few tweaks cashed at like 74% vs my previous 48% (which was losing). It’s a small sample size of about a month but it’s still a decent amount. For NFL the rate is about the same but that one is actually a really small sample size. I imagine even with a larger sample size it’s going to be true but maybe not at 74% but say 68% or something still better than before.

    However I did find it not to be good on GPPs. Just using strict optimizer lineups is very bad for GPPs so far especially when factoring in the ownership.

  • NoLimits0

    @bigez952 said...

    Welcome to DFS 2019 where everyone is using an optimizer and if you can’t consistently beat the “optimal” lineup cash games are not for you.

    I hear where you are coming from and I’ve read your other posts. I agree this completely takes out the fun in dfs but you have to understand a lot of people (even the non professionals) are like greedy and only care about money so that’s where we get this cycle of everyone’s going to use the optimal lineup.

    It’s a fact the optimal lineup is +EV so why not play it to make money (in cash games). It would be foolish not to. GPPs are different so you can think of some different ways there.

    It was funny listening to blenderhd talk about how sophisticated his R squared models are until I realized he just took a optimal lineup. I did the same and it makes quite a bit so he’s just smart to have used it long ago. Him, moklovin, pretty much all the pros except the Two Brothers and Youdacao are using straight optimal from some site for cash games. Awesomo doesn’t play cash but he also has some unique lineups in gpps. Youdacao is super legit he literally has his own projection model based on the lineups I see him create.

    You have to understand a lot people playing dfs don’t have like a stable job/house etc so they have to make the best business decision for themselves and that means just going with the optimizer. For some like us we do it more for fun but that’s not a lot of people. Like 10k is life changing money so you can’t fault anyone for using an optimizer.

  • NoLimits0

    For people that want to learn from a more of a strict optimizer type of guy, I recommend this user “bkreider”. He often uses an obvious optimizer generated cash lineup and his gpp exposures are going to be super close to the field gpp exposures across all players (since field ownership is usually a function of projections). So that’s someone you can learn from if you want an all optimizer type of guy.

    He’s ranked 21st but has a 50 tpoy rank which usually means very bad gpp player (most likely negative on the year in gpps), which helps my point above

  • SkateFiend

    @Aftereffect said...

    And yet, it’s no better on that site — if anything, it’s even worse.

    Yeah that was actually my point. Ownership figures at fantasydraft will be even more chalky.

  • bigez952

    @NoLimits0 said...

    I hear where you are coming from and I’ve read your other posts. I agree this completely takes out the fun in dfs but you have to understand a lot of people (even the non professionals) are like greedy and only care about money so that’s where we get this cycle of everyone’s going to use the optimal lineup.

    It’s a fact the optimal lineup is +EV so why not play it to make money (in cash games). It would be foolish not to. GPPs are different so you can think of some different ways there.

    It was funny listening to blenderhd talk about how sophisticated his R squared models are until I realized he just took a optimal lineup. I did the same and it makes quite a bit so he’s just smart to have used it long ago. Him, moklovin, pretty much all the pros except the Two Brothers and Youdacao are using straight optimal from some site for cash games. Awesomo doesn’t play cash but he also has some unique lineups in gpps. Youdacao is super legit he literally has his own projection model based on the lineups I see him create.

    You have to understand a lot people playing dfs don’t have like a stable job/house etc so they have to make the best business decision for themselves and that means just going with the optimizer. For some like us we do it more for fun but that’s not a lot of people. Like 10k is life changing money so you can’t fault anyone for using an optimizer.

    I 100% agree that the optimal lineup can be +EV and I am sure I will sound like a hypocrite but I used The BAT optimal for years in cash and was profitable for 4 year by doing nothing else. The problem today is that too many people caught up to how easy it is so 2018 was my first year losing money as the train sizes got to be insane where it was 25% of the contest so it was very likely on the nights it hit that you wouldn’t get the full payout which turns that +EV lineup into a -EV one since it became so hard to get the full payout.

    That is what really turned me off to the whole optimizer thing even though I used it heavily. Taking a step back and looking at my results I started to ask myself how can I be profitable again. So I started to take the optimal lineup and making what I thought were smart 2 v 2 pivots in an effort to get off the trains. That actually worked well to get out of the 75+ person trains but I found that my pivots were losing over 50% of the time.

    Even though MLB is the sport where I made the most money over the last 7 years I made the decision to retire from it after the 2019 season as it is such an everyday time drain and I no longer had the locked in profit. Now I am down to just playing NFL which still has large enough contests where the optimal train isn’t 15-25% of the contest and PGA which is the only sport that I have ever played where I don’t think an optimizer helps since there is no correlation between players. PGA is also such a high variance sport I believe it is the only one that is +EV to not use optimizers as chalk duds way more often in that sport than other ones.

    I don’t fault anyone for using optimizers and if you want to play cash games you pretty much need to pay for one just to be on the same level as the competition. A new player without an optimizer will get run over in cash games and probably immediately think the sites are not legit due to cheating and collusion since they can’t beat the trains. Playing as long as I have I know collusion isn’t a problem and the legal optimizers / bought public projection systems are but nothing will ever be done to address that as it generates too much money for the industry short term.

  • Njsum1

    @NoLimits0 said...

    It’s a fact the optimal lineup is +EV so why not play it to make money (in cash games). It would be foolish not to

    I don’t play cash, as I play for the fun/entertainment/challenge, yet I think one can beat the optimizers without one, yet not every day. If you played without one, everyday, one would most likely lose.

    Yet if someone was selective and played only on days where they thought the projections are putting people on bad plays, they might have a shot. That person would also have to be an above average player.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @bigez952 said...

    I 100% agree that the optimal lineup can be +EV and I am sure I will sound like a hypocrite but I used The BAT optimal for years in cash and was profitable for 4 year by doing nothing else. The problem today is that too many people caught up to how easy it is so 2018 was my first year losing money as the train sizes got to be insane where it was 25% of the contest so it was very likely on the nights it hit that you wouldn’t get the full payout which turns that +EV lineup into a -EV one since it became so hard to get the full payout.

    That is what really turned me off to the whole optimizer thing even though I used it heavily. Taking a step back and looking at my results I started to ask myself how can I be profitable again. So I started to take the optimal lineup and making what I thought were smart 2 v 2 pivots in an effort to get off the trains. That actually worked well to get out of the 75+ person trains but I found that my pivots were losing over 50% of the time.

    Even though MLB is the sport where I made the most money over the last 7 years I made the decision to retire from it after the 2019 season as it is such an everyday time drain and I no longer had the locked in profit. Now I am down to just playing NFL which still has large enough contests where the optimal train isn’t 15-25% of the contest and PGA which is the only sport that I have ever played where I don’t think an optimizer helps since there is no correlation between players. PGA is also such a high variance sport I believe it is the only one that is +EV to not use optimizers as chalk duds way more often in that sport than other ones.

    I don’t fault anyone for using optimizers and if you want to play cash games you pretty much need to pay for one just to be on the same level as the competition. A new player without an optimizer will get run over in cash games and probably immediately think the sites are not legit due to cheating and collusion since they can’t beat the trains. Playing as long as I have I know collusion isn’t a problem and the legal optimizers / bought public projection systems are but nothing will ever be done to address that as it generates too much money for the industry short term.

    You cant, nor do I think you necessarily should, do anything about the optimizers (not like you could anyway). There is nothing against the rules from using them. In my opinion there will always be money to be made in tournaments though. Cash games were dead years ago so I’m not sure why people are still talking about them.

    I liked your take on PGA, which gets me thinking if I should even bother with any type of optimizer/stat research tool for PGA. I’m still on the fence about that as the initial outlay for something like Fantasy National is around $250 a year. When I look at it as $20 a month, it doesnt seem so bad though. Having never used any type of paid subscription, I probably will buy one for a year, just because when I consider the time savings for research alone, it easily pays for itself.

    As far as collusion not being a problem, I guess it all depends on how you define “problem”. Do people collude to create 600 different lineups? Absolutely…I know for a fact people do this. Is it widespread? I have no idea.

  • NoLimits0

    @bigez952 said...

    I 100% agree that the optimal lineup can be +EV and I am sure I will sound like a hypocrite but I used The BAT optimal for years in cash and was profitable for 4 year by doing nothing else. The problem today is that too many people caught up to how easy it is so 2018 was my first year losing money as the train sizes got to be insane where it was 25% of the contest so it was very likely on the nights it hit that you wouldn’t get the full payout which turns that +EV lineup into a -EV one since it became so hard to get the full payout.

    That is what really turned me off to the whole optimizer thing even though I used it heavily. Taking a step back and looking at my results I started to ask myself how can I be profitable again. So I started to take the optimal lineup and making what I thought were smart 2 v 2 pivots in an effort to get off the trains. That actually worked well to get out of the 75+ person trains but I found that my pivots were losing over 50% of the time.

    Even though MLB is the sport where I made the most money over the last 7 years I made the decision to retire from it after the 2019 season as it is such an everyday time drain and I no longer had the locked in profit. Now I am down to just playing NFL which still has large enough contests where the optimal train isn’t 15-25% of the contest and PGA which is the only sport that I have ever played where I don’t think an optimizer helps since there is no correlation between players. PGA is also such a high variance sport I believe it is the only one that is +EV to not use optimizers as chalk duds way more often in that sport than other ones.

    I don’t fault anyone for using optimizers and if you want to play cash games you pretty much need to pay for one just to be on the same level as the competition. A new player without an optimizer will get run over in cash games and probably immediately think the sites are not legit due to cheating and collusion since they can’t beat the trains. Playing as long as I have I know collusion isn’t a problem and the legal optimizers / bought public projection systems are but nothing will ever be done to address that as it generates too much money for the industry short term.

    You don’t sound hypocritical what so ever. If anything I like you admit you use optimizers to be profitable in the past. 99% of the people using them don’t admit that and want to claim they are some expert player.

    The MLB case is interesting. I just started doing it for NBA and NFL so haven’t gotten around to next years MLB. I’ll see what happens there. You are right the higher % of dupes the less EV it is. However I still think 25% is not high enough it needs to be like 50%.

  • NoLimits0

    @Njsum1 said...

    I don’t play cash, as I play for the fun/entertainment/challenge, yet I think one can beat the optimizers without one, yet not every day. If you played without one, everyday, one would most likely lose.

    Yet if someone was selective and played only on days where they thought the projections are putting people on bad plays, they might have a shot. That person would also have to be an above average player.

    You are 100% correct and that’s how you are supposed to think actually for gpps.

    But you see for an average player like me and most guys who use optimizers we aren’t smart enough to distinguish between the good and bad plays so we should just always use the optimizer since on average it’s better. I agree if you are a top player knowing when to agree and disagree is a key. I would imagine almost no one does this except for maybe the very top (like even some super high players like moklovin, bkreider, etc that I mentioned previously don’t do what you suggest).

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