INDUSTRY FORUM

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  • gnicholas0225

    Soft pricing and a lack of a flex spot means that basically every single night, the best value plays are 95% owned in cash games, and 20-50% of the field has the exact same lineup.

    Using tonight as an example, I came up with an identical lineup as roughly 40% of the field (Kemba, Teague, Beal, Wiggins, Brown, Brown, Tatum, Bertans, Dieng), including numerous pros, we all cashed, and yet I lost 90% of my entries because there was like a 40 way tie. I’m not in any way saying that my lineup took some genius to create, in fact, quite the opposite, it was the most straightforward play to make, so everyone made it.

    FanDuel seriously needs to do something, because there’s no point in playing cash games with them anymore. Everything usually comes down to 1, maybe 2 spots that you can use to differentiate yourself, and even then, there’s a good chance tons of others made the same picks. They need to, at the very least, add a Flex spot and see if that helps matters.

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    Just to summarize NoLimits’ points:

    1. Optimizer sites should make high stakes guys pay way more than average players for the same product. (No suggestion on how to quantify these levels).
    2. Bkreider is probably a “very bad” GPP player, but he probably min cashes “a lot”.
    3. 99% of optimizer users won’t admit they use an optimizer, but there’s no way of knowing this because they won’t admit it.
    4. NoLimit could make thousands of dollars on DFS by simply using optimizers, but he doesn’t have time, even though optimizers are very fast and easy to master.

    yep, sounds legit!

    Hey to use your term straw man, if that’s what you want to believe, I can’t stop you from believing that.

    You might want add a 5 to go along with 4, I must have also communicated with Valuable Trader and bigez to post their win rate/amount of money they have won using optimizers because it wouldn’t fit your narrative otherwise.

    The funny thing is literally on the first page, another user posted they won thousands of dollars and went from negative to positive from just using optimizers in cash. And oh FYI I’ve made like 5k too since 1.5 months ago I just didn’t mention it since I didn’t see it as relevant (mainly because the point wasn’t the exact amount won). And yes if I entered 10x the amount it probably 10x but that’s where I don’t care enough to do that since I don’t have the time to do so and it wouldn’t be worth it for me.

  • NoLimits0

    @ValuableTrader said...

    This is why I bought a premium membership and The Blitz. I should of done it sooner, way sooner. It’s either you pay money for these tools for the best optimal lineup(s) for cash games or you’ll get beat 70-85% of the time. If you’re a week by week, here and there player then ok if you hit right but like poker DFS is all about profits over a a period of time.

    I hate that it has come down to this, but eventually data/engineering was going to dominate anyway. Takes the fun out of it for me personally. I don’t even need to do any research anymore really.

    I love DFS, sports and loved creating my “own” lineups but after loosing thousands I said screw it, wasn’t fun anymore I was loosing by like 50+ each week. I was down $8k in the first half of 2019, got these tools and as of today I’m up $1500 on the year. How about that swing? It’s not rocket science, it’s just figuring this industry out. I played for years before I realized what it took to win and how basically knowing your sports means nothing. It’s about data, period!

    My point if you can’t clearly see it is you either get the tools/optimizers or you’re going to lose money over time period in cash games. You can sit back and try busting us at 10-15% win rate each week but unless you have money to blow I think that would be pretty dumb. Like I said it sucks it came to this but until FD/DK do something about it this will continue to happen.

    Here it is jjwd. So actually yes you can use an optimizer lineup in cash and make money…and this isn’t my alt account.

    I had to quote someone else only because you wouldn’t believe it if I said it. It’s actually rare someone else mentioned what I’ve been saying but I give him props for doing so because it’s similar to a poker player showing his hand. Like I said most people using an optimizer wouldn’t just admit “hey I’ve made money just using it so should you”.

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    I had to quote someone else only because you wouldn’t believe it if I said it

    It’s very telling that you are so confidently (and erroneously) reading my mind, just like all the other “pros” who you’ve already pigeonholed with very minimal evidence.
    Optimizers are valuable. This is obvious. And I have no problem with people using them, just like I have done since 2013-14.

    My beef with your posts is your habitually sloppy logic and habitual stoking of resentment. Class envy is not necessary in DFS. It’s counterproductive to vilify people and make assumptions based solely on (perceived) bankroll. The game is more complicated than that.

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    And yes if I entered 10x the amount it probably 10x but that’s where I don’t care enough to do that since I don’t have the time to do so and it wouldn’t be worth it for me

    This is nonsense. Entering more money doesn’t take more time if you are playing robotically. Plus, you have plenty of time to sit in these forums and post inflammatory stuff every time a topic like this comes up. Why not use those precious hours to make 100k per year?
    Or is it not actually that simple…?

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    This is nonsense. Entering more money doesn’t take more time if you are playing robotically. Plus, you have plenty of time to sit in these forums and post inflammatory stuff every time a topic like this comes up. Why not use those precious hours to make 100k per year?
    Or is it not actually that simple…?

    lol who says I wont? I just started off not putting in like a huge amount like I said because it wasn’t worth it for me to put a lot. I mean that’s actually really the thing that sets a lot of these top players apart. Everyone’s using the optimizers it’s just some are realizing how +EV it is so they submit more. I just need a larger sample size first but I didn’t start off doing like 100x or something because like I said I wasn’t desperate to make a quick buck…it’s not going to be exactly 10x but it’ll be close in cash games. Cash games have similar cutoffs so if I’m entering 10 bucks and making 15 dollars off of it, if I enter 100 it’s reasonable to make around 150…

    For gpps obviously it isn’t the case but it’s pretty true in cash games.

    The issue is you think I’m some unemployed loser or something that has plenty of time to just focus on dfs. How’s that for an assumption from you? Dfs is no where near my primary source of income….I’m just trying to help the people on here who are confused on why they aren’t winning and then posting about it.

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    It’s very telling that you are so confidently (and erroneously) reading my mind, just like all the other “pros” who you’ve already pigeonholed with very minimal evidence.
    Optimizers are valuable. This is obvious. And I have no problem with people using them, just like I have done since 2013-14.

    My beef with your posts is your habitually sloppy logic and habitual stoking of resentment. Class envy is not necessary in DFS. It’s counterproductive to vilify people and make assumptions based solely on (perceived) bankroll. The game is more complicated than that.

    Class envy that’s funny. Didn’t I just say Awesemo and Youdacao were the two best players in the world in combining the optimizers with their own projections and you can learn a lot from them? Or did that just conviently get removed from your post? Because I’ve been pretty consistent about that.

    Almost all nights youdacao never has the same lineup as most of the other “pros”. He also has a very different strategy. He had 0% Beal yesterday (and that’s on a great Beal night). I’m just simply evaluating all the players on exactly what I see from the data. The data shows in cash games there’s a large group of players who have the same lineup every night. The data shows some other top players like youdacao don’t have the same lineup as them on almost every single night. In fact from my knowledge in super large slates often times he has a solo lineup not shared by anyone else in a large group whereas others would have like 20% of the field with the exact same lineup. That’s what sets him apart and makes him so special and why he’s probably the best cash/GPP player in the world. Awesmo does something similar in GPPs but he doesn’t really play cash but it totally makes sense why they are the two best. That’s just the data no speculation here. The funniest part is you think I called bkreider a bad cash game player when I’m literally saying he makes a ton in cash games and he often times has the optimal lineup projected by sites. Used him as a reason for why you should be using the optimal lineup in cash and why it doesn’t always work in gpps…there’s no envy it’s in the data. You check the data yourself. All of this is clearly meant to help people. Only you and a few people who are going to lose some edge now would think my posts are meant to be negative and divisive.

    Where’s the class envy? Shouldn’t I hate awesemo and youdacao the most since they are ranked 1-2? Why am I giving them so much praise? Totally makes sense this is class envy…any other speculations you want to make about me?

  • jjwd

    @NoLimits0 said...

    The funniest part is you think I called bkreider a bad cash game player when I’m literally saying he makes a ton in cash games and he often times has the optimal lineup projected by sites.

    post where I said that. You literally can’t follow an argument dude. good luck

  • NoLimits0

    @jjwd said...

    post where I said that. You literally can’t follow an argument dude. good luck

    Lol except that most people reading this would agree with what I said. I love how you cherry pick specific things within a large post. Straw man. Straw man. Sell me the straws.

  • NoLimits0

    Awesemo and youdacao are the two best players in the world and you can learn so much from the style of their play to improve but somehow I have class envy so when I say this, it must mean I’m being sarcastic right? Is that how it works.

  • NoLimits0

    So jjwd if you want to tell me that I speculate or whatever, you made a ton of speculations about me that are completely false. I can’t believe you read my posts and came up with the conclusion my main point was class envy lol. My main point was to help people letting them know they should be using the optimizer in cash lineups, stop worrying about the fun of the game or the process as much since it’s pretty data driven at the end of the day, and for gpps don’t use the optimal lineups but mix in the optimal model your own inputs. This is the only reason I named some examples to shed light on this.

    But for some reason you take my posts as class envy which is funny because I respect some of these pros as the best in the world.

    And before you go on and point out how my price discrimination example is class envy it’s not. I brought that up because I have read a lot of posts on here from people asking to bring the old RG back. RG won’t do that because they have to make money themselves so I suggested a possible resolution which is like bidding for information. In that case some users who don’t play heavy volume would pay less than users who are more willing to pay more for it since they would rely on it more. That’s quite reasonable and isn’t class envy. When airlines charge 20x for first class seats vs economy it clearly should not be that way. It’s probably only worth 4x not 20x but they are able to charge 20x because the demand is there. I’m just merely pointing out a way for players who don’t play as much to get some benefits without having to be charged the same amount. Not sure if this somehow how you managed to speculate I have class envy. Like I said I don’t really have any reason to have class envy because it would actually be hypocritical on my part. It’s also really strange for you to think I have class envy if you knew who I was.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jjwd said...

    my assertion is that at high stakes everyone is a passionate basketball fan- in one way or another. Different skill sets and mindframes can all pay off.

    Well sorry to tell you but you would be wrong. Everyone in high stakes is good at data-analysis and technical skills, but not everyone is a super passionate basketball fan.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    tldr summary from above (from fightingjohn on another thread):

    DFS has come down to everyone using the optimal lineup thorough optimizers. If you want to be successful, then you have to get on board. All the same lineups are a result of this. You need to find pivots to put yourself over the top. Sucks DFS has gone from using your brain, to an automated tool making a lineup for, but it has.

  • jjwd

    @superstars92 said...

    DFS has come down to everyone using the optimal lineup thorough optimizers. If you want to be successful, then you have to get on board.

    Wrong and wrong. There is no one optimal lineup, unless you are averaging all projection sources, which very few people are doing. And even if everyone were doing this, GPPs would still remain “unsolvable”.
    My goodness, it’s crazy we can’t even agree on these VERY SIMPLE things in an RG forum.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jjwd said...

    Wrong and wrong. There is no one optimal lineup, unless you are averaging all projection sources, which very few people are doing. And even if everyone were doing this, GPPs would still remain “unsolvable”.
    My goodness, it’s crazy we can’t even agree on these VERY SIMPLE things in an RG forum.

    Tell fightingjohn that

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/what-happened-3232953?page=1#reply-3237050

    Don’t tell me I’m just tldr that skimming through the posts for everyone above, catching up from page 1. I am not sure GPPs were the point of the OP’s post, as I think he was talking about double ups and h2hs? That seems to be what most people are referring to.

    By definition, there has to be one optimal lineup. Isn’t that the defintion of optimal?

    This isn’t really a simple topic, so I am not sure why everyone has to agree. I actually don’t get what you guys are arguing about. Are you guys arguing whether people play the optimal lineup or that the optimal lineup is profitable? The former I think most people will think is true (why would you not play the optimal lineup?), the latter I am not sure. It seems to have been profitable, but I’m sure there’s an even better way of going about it.

  • jlowery73

    2012 DDC Main Event Champion

    • 2014 FAFC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 FACFC Finalist

    I was saying on this site a couple years back that while DFS might be around awhile, the profitability has drastically changed. Sports betting might be the way to go in the next decade unless you want to hop onto the max entry optimizer train in DFS. Cash games were dead LONG ago, and now tournies are being won predominantly by guys tossing out tons of lineups. The skill game in all this was watered down long ago also. I still play a little because I enjoy it, but it’s becoming fruitless even to me.

    I say all this in relation to the main topic of FD and basketball…..ridiculous every night to see ownerships. Usually comes down to whether or not your 1 low owned guy goes off….yuck. There were big slates in the past week where many guys were 20-30 percent owned!

  • 2Slik

    @Pidinolo said...

    Why exactly does fd need to change to suit your needs ? Adapt or get left behind. Simple as that. Long term success in any game variant whether it be fantasy, sports betting, poker, etc. Takes constant fluidity and new theory being adapted to be profitable. If it was easy, everyone wouldnt be constantly whining every night and coming up with illogical excuses why they suck rather than find a solution or move on. Gpps are hard as shit to win let alone to come up with a successful plan to overcome variance. Good luck and either grow as an individual or STFU and stop blaming others for your lack of creativity.

    I understand some people are of the mindset in just put up or shut up which for many things in life is a viable thought process. When it comes to something that one and others had enjoyed doing, but now due to others implicitly exploiting every advantage to where the game has become laborious or bought isn’t this the place to vent. Even those who had the upper hand to exploit the cash game systems are now complaining. Maybe these RG users really care about the game and just want to continue playing because it was enjoyable rather than just watch it get pillaged and die.

    It’s this funny scenario where a man and his boss are on a boat together which has started to take on water. The boss stands there yelling at the employee, “Bail water out the boat”. When the employee says, “I can’t bail more water by myself than what we are taking on”, the boss yells back, “Sucks to be you”.

  • ValuableTrader

    I also just wanted to say that these optimizers/projection models w/e specifically “The Blitz” is not “just” a standard tool. Carty put together a gem. Takes a lot of work and constant tinkering for it to work as well as it does.

    If you’re willing to invest because his product is not on the cheap side then you all can enjoy the profits with us.

    Oh and by the way up $1300 this weekend in NFL cash. Crazy.

    P.S. Stop messaging me for details/lineups/etc. you guys gotta pay for it. Would be dumb for me to give this information as I have to pay for it myself.

  • durbinjag

    The Blitz has had a very nice couple of weeks since I signed up. Certainly can help you profit in cash games without question.

  • NoLimits0

    @durbinjag said...

    The Blitz has had a very nice couple of weeks since I signed up. Certainly can help you profit in cash games without question.

    I wasn’t going to post here again but I just saw your post and I remembered this.

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/pro-s-without-optimizer-s-or-website-projections-3222925?page=3#reply-3232768

    It was a conversation between us two like 2 weeks ago where you asked about optimal lineups and I tried to help. I hope I was helpful in convincing you to make money. People can literally read the posts on that thread from 2 weeks ago and then read your reply today and they can formulate their opinion on if I’m some kind of disgenous or evil guy like I’ve been called on here.

    It just sucks guys like jjwd want to portray me as some kind of evil villain when I’m trying to help. I honestly am going to give up posting here because the people who complain about me just make stuff up and then I’m the one who looks bad and get into trouble and not the other way around. So maybe I shouldn’t help anymore so I’ll just leave.

    I’m glad you are doing well though. Just remember as I stated don’t use that straight up for gpps. Its more valuable for cash than gpps.

    I actually have a bunch more information to offer since I collect a lot of data in my free time, but I’ll just share that with PMs and not through the public forum because I don’t want to be viewed as some kind of villain and cause any trouble.

  • w3junky

    Isn’t it great when someone starts a good topic on here but it just turns into a bunch of guys bashing each other over stupid shit? My god. Grow up everyone and stop turning these posts into fights with each other.

  • jjwd

    @w3junky said...

    Isn’t it great when someone starts a good topic on here but it just turns into a bunch of guys bashing each other over stupid shit? My god. Grow up everyone and stop turning these posts into fights with each other.

    If people don’t push back on NoLimits’ faulty logic and rampant stereotyping, some casual RG members might be unnecessarily demoralized by his negative posts. I’m just arguing in favor of a more productive and positive outlook for DFS.

  • noddy

    @w3junky said...

    Isn’t it great when someone starts a good topic on here but it just turns into a bunch of guys bashing each other over stupid shit? My god. Grow up everyone and stop turning these posts into fights with each other.

    Yep. You are not allowed to disagree with some people or have a different opinion. Amazing how some people react not just on here, but in our country.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @noddy said...

    Yep. You are not allowed to disagree with some people or have a different opinion. Amazing how some people react not just on here, but in our country.

    Welcome to America. I have no idea what this forum thread is about, but saw this one post and had to agree.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @w3junky said...

    Isn’t it great when someone starts a good topic on here but it just turns into a bunch of guys bashing each other over stupid shit? My god. Grow up everyone and stop turning these posts into fights with each other.

    Do you even know what people are bashing each other over? Because I don’t. I feel like 99% of the thread has one general conclusion.

  • eisenhauert10

    @madmanjayWV said...

    stick to SINGLE entry (Higher the buy-in better odds) and play smaller GPPs or smaller max entry GPPs…

    Also, create a variation off of the optimizer. Usually swapping a mid-priced chalk player with a lower ceiling for a comparable player. Knowing ownership percentages is on you. Use chalk lineups to your advantage.

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