INDUSTRY FORUM

Comments

  • tmirrione

    I haven’t seen a thread related to this. I thought it would be worthwhile to discuss the impact in strategy. Seems a fairly significant change, reducing points for a win from 12 to 6, and a new quality start category worth 4 points. Obviously this devalues the win compared to before, which means we won’t have to chase the win like before. However, a win combined with a quality start is now worth just 10 points. Does that devalue the pitching spot as a whole in comparison to hitters?

  • crazypaul

    I dont think it really devaules pitching. It does change how I will approach pitching though. I will feel much more comfortable using mid-range pitching than I did before.

  • tmirrione

    I almost think that you would rather have the higher end pitcher and lock in the higher probability of the QS without the concern of whether you get the W. Should raise the floor for those guys even higher.

  • salarycapfantasy

    It takes some of the pain away from a bad bullpen. Let’s face it wins can be easily lost from something beyond the starting pitchers control. The Quality Start is earned and the Win is almost the bonus on that if the pen closes it out.

  • DannyTanner

    I hate seeing points being taken away from pitchers which makes stacking even more important. A win was worth 12 last season; wish they just split that in two with a QS and W both being worth six so a dominant start was worth the same amount.

  • pepsi7

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBC Champion

    • x3

      2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I love this change, wins are so fluky!

  • AlexSonty

    • Blogger of the Month

    Looks good. Raises the value of guys who go six innings in tough spots. A guy going 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 K, and a W still gets too many points, IMO. 8 for the QS and 4 for the W or 7 and 3 makes more sense, as the QS is more likely to show up in the research than the W, no?

  • KindGuy

    Why did they even keep the W in the first place. I thought QS and W were substitutes, not complements. Most season longs only have one, right?

  • sethayates

    I pulled together some date on this just for fun. I extracted the data for about 500 pitchers from last season. I deleted any pitcher who did not make any starts and I also excluded anyone who didn’t have at least one win. That doesn’t make this data 100% reliable but it at least gives us some actuals for discussion purposes.

    Here are the unluckiest starting pitchers last year. These pitchers had the largest difference between the amount of quality starts and wins. James Shields tops the list as he was stuck with the Padres and White Sox offenses last season. Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale and several other good arms with bad offenses (or bullpens) appear behind Shields.

    Conversely, here are the luckiest pitchers last season. These pitchers have more wins than quality starts. Looking at the list, there are some bullpen arms on here that started one game. They obviously appear here because they ended up stealing a win from someone else. Starters like Dylan Bundy and Juan Nicasio were lucky to pick up several wins they didn’t deserve though.

    Finally, here is a summary of the difference between quality starts and wins by team. There were 31 pitchers in my sample who were traded mid-season. For example, James Shields played for both SD and CHW. I didn’t feel like splitting those lines up so the data doesn’t include those guys. That’s a big reason why SD shows only 21 QS. This chart still gets the point across. The Phillies and White Sox pitchers often posted a QS but couldn’t get a W. The Blue Jays bullpen also blew quite a few wins.

  • LuckyLuc3434

    @elementasrat said...

    Why did they even keep the W in the first place. I thought QS and W were substitutes, not complements. Most season longs only have one, right?

    My season long on RTsports has both.

    I think I’m kinda indifferent on the change. My instinct is that targeting cheap pitchers will probably be more difficult

  • KindGuy

    Seth, you’re the MAN!

    Thanks so much!

  • sethayates

    I just realized there is one more relevant piece of information here. This is the percentage of quality starts sorted from best to worst. As someone in this thread pointed out, the most expensive guys are going to have a better floor this season as you’ll get 6 points from them about 75% of the time.

  • squirrelpatrol

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    All else being the same though, this has to devalue the pitchers relative to the hitters, right? There are less possible points available (10 points for a win and QS, vs 12 before for just a win) for your selected pitcher on any given night. They could adjust the salaries for Pitchers accordingly, but this is something to watch for.

  • draped

    @squirrelpatrol said...

    All else being the same though, this has to devalue the pitchers relative to the hitters, right? There are less possible points available (10 points for a win and QS, vs 12 before for just a win) for your selected pitcher on any given night. They could adjust the salaries for Pitchers accordingly, but this is something to watch for.

    So, this is an interesting idea but I think the salaries would be about the same for these elite pitchers, given that salaries are based on average expected production not ceiling.

    I don’t know for a fact (so it would be nice if someone did calculate it) but I would guess if an elite pitcher makes 30+ starts they should get wins in about 50% of them (15ish wins for 30 starts or 17ish for 34 starts).

    this means on average they would get:
    50% * 6 points FP for a win + 75% * 4 points for a QS = 6FP, where as before it was 50% * 12 FP for a win = 6FP.

    Obviously that is only true if these elite pitchers are getting wins 50% of their starts and 75% QS, but I don’t see it being that farfetched to expect them to win 40-60% of their starts and Seth’s data above seems to point to 75%ish for QS.

    EDIT: but it would certainly affect the strategy because as you point out their ceilings would be lower and floors higher so maybe paying up for pitchers in GPPs is not as valuable anymore. also I don’t play FD baseball only DK, but I still think this is interesting.

  • anilprao88

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    @squirrelpatrol said...

    All else being the same though, this has to devalue the pitchers relative to the hitters, right? There are less possible points available (10 points for a win and QS, vs 12 before for just a win) for your selected pitcher on any given night. They could adjust the salaries for Pitchers accordingly, but this is something to watch for.

    Not necessarily IMO. I think it hinges on the differences in quality start and win probabilities between good and bad pitchers. If the difference in quality start probabilities between good and bad pitchers is substantially larger than the difference between win probabilities between good and bad pitchers, then this move could potentially make paying up for pitching even more valuable. (To be clear, I have no idea whether or not this is the case.) Raw points isn’t what we are really concerned with; it’s the difference in expected points between differently priced players.

  • btwice80

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    Love that they finally devalued the win. Unfortunately they still have the ass backwards scoring for hitters with runs and RBI (which outside of a HR requires assistance from another hitter/runner) being worth more than bases (which the hitter does on his own). I know they had to add the decimals to avoid so many ties, but it should have been added to singles and doubles, or else take a few decimals away from runs/RBI.

  • makeitra1n

    @btwice80 said...

    Love that they finally devalued the win. Unfortunately they still have the ass backwards scoring for hitters with runs and RBI (which outside of a HR requires assistance from another hitter/runner) being worth more than bases (which the hitter does on his own). I know they had to add the decimals to avoid so many ties, but it should have been added to singles and doubles, or else take a few decimals away from runs/RBI.

    Or what they could have done,this may blow your mind,is have negative points for outs.oh and also,might blow your mind again,if they loved, and I definitely mean they not us since they changed the scoring supposedly because of public demand, the whole higher scoring thing could have just multiplied the negatives for outs by 3.

  • btwice80

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    @makeitra1n said...

    Or what they could have done,this may blow your mind,is have negative points for outs.oh and also,might blow your mind again,if they loved, and I definitely mean they not us since they changed the scoring supposedly because of public demand, the whole higher scoring thing could have just multiplied the negatives for outs by 3.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think my ideal FD scoring would be the old way with the negative for outs and everything worth one point but the win chopped from 4 to 2. However, I don’t mind so much removing the out penalty as much as I hate juicing up the runs/RBI more than bases. And I loved the simplicity of everything being worth a point. It made it easier to gauge the leaderboard—-how far back or ahead you were, see who still had their pitcher going or had the pitcher that was lifted mid-inning, etc.

  • Olhausen

    I’ve been asking why the win wasn’t scrapped for quality start points for years. I’m glad FD is finally doing something about it but why not get rid of the win points all together? I’ve lost so much money because of bullpens blowing my pitchers one run gem that it was infuriating. I’m not sure why all of these sites give points for a win and not a quality start. Giving only points for quality starts is much more skill based if you ask me.

  • manoftroy

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  • Cpjttogether

    ya good stuff seth . stat master.

  • manoftroy

    .

  • ocdobv

    @sethayates said...

    Conversely, here are the luckiest pitchers last season.

    This table is misleading. You really should filter out non-start games. If a player mainly pitches in middle relief, they have near zero opportunities for a QS, but they can have plenty of chances for a W. I don’t think that really means they were “lucky”.

  • edro990

    @manoftroy said...

    Trolling aside, kudos to Fanduel for taking a step in what several of us consider to be the right direction. Now time to do something about their creativity-suppressing roster construction format.

    Would love to see them reduce the stack limit to 3, that would support creativity. I don’t expect it, but one can dream, lol……..

  • manoftroy

    @edro990 said...

    Would love to see them reduce the stack limit to 3, that would support creativity. I don’t expect it, but one can dream, lol……..

    .

  • Lathum

    I think it helps pitchers who are on an offensively challenged team. In the past I steered clear of guys like that because I wanted the win, now you can look at those guys which will help differentiate your roster, especially early in the year when the casual player may not have picked up on the change.

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