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  • semobb1993

    The current tie-rich environment that is FanDuel MLB DFS has got me thinking…

    Normally we like our pitchers to go deep in games, and that means rostering studs. I would think that stud pitchers are much more likely to either complete the game or get pulled at the end of an inning for a setup man or a closer.

    As it stands though, really the only way to achieve any score differential is to have your pitcher pulled after having recorded 1 or 2 outs in an inning. This probably isn’t nearly as important in cash as it is in GPP’s.

    The problem with this of course is that when this happens, it’s usually because said pitcher is in trouble… either already having given up several runs, or with runners on base that will get charged to his line if the relief can’t come in and shut the door.

    Is there any reliable data out there that might help us here? I’m thinking no, but I’m not sure. Does bullpen (especially middle/long relief) quality come into play? Can we maybe feel better about rostering an average/mediocre SP knowing that if he gets pulled early, the inherited runners are more likely to be stranded?

    This would help perhaps in minimizing the damage, but at the same time it might create that separation that seems to be the only possibility of scoring a high finish in a big GPP without tying somebody else.

    I’ll use Saturday’s early slate squeeze as an example: of the 6,255 entries that cashed, only five had unique scores. Those five entries used either Sabathia, Harvey, or Wainwright, who, along with Jered Weaver were the only 4 pitchers out of 14 in that slate to be pulled in the middle of an inning.

    I would be interested in hearing Bales’ (and the other RG experts’) take on this.

  • jimmyrad

    There are several variables that WE KNOW are very important in MLB DFS. I would suggest mastering those before worrying about any fringy stuff like this.

  • ComicFx

    Such a shame how FanDuel ruined their MLB product. Last season was my favorite site to play, never missed a day. This season I cashed out after 2 days. Opening day I had some VERY unique multi entries tie themselves on the cash line and lose money due to the thousand plus ties, same thing happened day two and I cashed out day three. No thanks.

  • Zieg30

    • 470

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #97

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    I’d prefer to tie for first place than have a unique lineup score in twentieth.

    In no way shape or form should someone play a sub-optimal lineup in the hopes that their pitcher gets an odd score from being pulled mid-inning.

  • baller33

    Yes, having a pitcher with a fractional inning would make it less likely that your team is not tied.

    But it won’t just put you in front of the tie…it’ll make you finish right behind the tie just as well. You would obviously rather have 120 points than 118 for example. Even though that 118 might be unique, whereas there are 10 people tied at 120.

  • shockermandan

    Definitely an interesting thought, but have to agree with everyone else that it’s probably (a) difficult to predict and (b) hard to quantify the value of it, if any.

  • sethayates

    Am I understanding this thread correctly? You are saying the new FanDuel scoring causes you to tie with a bunch of people. Your solution is that if you score less points (your pitcher doesn’t finish an inning) you won’t tie?

  • shockermandan

    @sethayates said...

    Am I understanding this thread correctly? You are saying the new FanDuel scoring causes you to tie with a bunch of people. Your solution is that if you score less points (your pitcher doesn’t finish an inning) you won’t tie?

    Nah I don’t think that’s what he means. I had to re-read it too.

    He isn’t trying to score less points, just score a point total that is not a multiple of 3 (as basically all full-stats on FD right now are multiples of 3).

  • semobb1993

    Of course not. There are already situations in GPP’s though where rostering relatively cheap pitchers in good spots is not necessarily suboptimal, particularly if Coors is in play. I’m just brainstorming out loud.

  • sethayates

    @shockermandan said...

    Nah I don’t think that’s what he means. I had to re-read it too.

    He isn’t trying to score less points, just score a point total that is not a multiple of 3 (as basically all full-stats on FD right now are multiples of 3).

    I got that, but the end result is going to be that you end up not tied with the people ahead of you.

    If Pitcher A goes 8 IP, 6Ks, W= 54. Pitcher B goes 7.66 IP, 6Ks, W=53

    If you knew the results ahead of time there is no game theory strategy that would tell you to pick the lower scoring guy so that you can avoid a tie.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @semobb1993 said...

    Does bullpen (especially middle/long relief) quality come into play?

    The bullpen has always come into play, especially on FD where the W has a higher relative value.

    In general I think you’re overthinking this. Ties are meaningless to your bottom line in the long run. People seem to have this concept that if there weren’t ties they’d always be on the higher placing end. In reality it’d trend 50/50 long run and have no impact.

    The only real difference to the game that could affect your play is that the Jay Bruce or Chris Carter type player has slightly increased in value relative to the Jose Altuve type player.

  • mannmicj

    “Game Theory” is becoming the buzz phrase of the year. To the point, that I’m already tired of hearing it. That said.

    This is NOT something I would consider. This is overthinking at it’s best.

    I’m going to put together the best lineup possible each and every day, with what I believe has the most potential scoring upside.
    Many times that will start with an ELITE pitcher.

    I can not control the ties. I hate the FD new scoring, but I won’t let it impact how I build a lineup. To win, you need the most points. It’s that simple.

  • maxeernst

    “Build better lineups” has now become “Build worse lineups”

  • bzsports4

    You do realize that having a pitcher pitch a fraction of an inning instead of the whole inning would be LESS fantasy points, right? Not to mention its going to impossible to predict which pitchers will be pulled in a fraction of an inning, not that doing so would be more advantageous.

  • sethayates

    @bzsports4 said...

    You do realize that having a pitcher pitch a fraction of an inning instead of the whole inning would be LESS fantasy points, right? Not to mention its going to impossible to predict which pitchers will be pulled in a fraction of an inning, not that doing so would be more advantageous.

    He’s obviously only interested in the fraction of an inning to get his score off a multiple of three. Obviously, you want the number to be as high as possible. In my example above I mentioned two pitchers one gets 8IP and the other 7.66. Ideally you’d rather have the guy that goes 8.33 instead of 8. That’s not game theory though. That’s picking the pitcher who will score the most points which is how I will continue to approach it.

    P.S. As far the OP’s topic goes. If you want a pitcher that pitches a fractional inning that is more likely to happen in the AL or an AL park, right? Most of the time your NL pitcher gets pulled when it is his turn to bat around the 7th inning. If he’s an AL pitcher the manager will sometimes send him out for one inning too long and wait until he puts a runner or two on base. That’s definitely not a situation I want though. You can’t trust these bullpens. I want my starter pulled a little early, not a little late.

  • marineroptimist

    Interesting idea. I would think you’d want to look at pitchers with strong bullpens and history of getting pulled after getting an out in 6th or 7th. Or t pitchers with one tough out (like facing Trout) and a LOOGY or opp hand reliever who is often used to get that guy out. Assuming you are doing this with a pitcher you might already consider, seems like a fine tiebreaker

  • ThatStunna

    • 58

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #48

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    How about a post called “Ties and their effect on perceived losses” where people view ties as always negatively reducing their winnings, rather than sometimes pulling them upward to a higher (tied) place.

    Edit: Actually, that’s a little harsh; I guess you gain more from being above a tie blob than you lose from being below the tie blob. Still, people seem to be disproportionately worried about ties.

  • dallasmavsallday

    @mannmicj said...

    “Game Theory” is becoming the buzz phrase of the year. To the point, that I’m already tired of hearing it.

    Amen dude. very tired of it.

  • tvsfrink

    “Game Theory” is the new “Craft Beer” or “Artisan Bread.”

  • jimmyrad

    @tvsfrink said...

    “Game Theory” is the new “Craft Beer” or “Artisan Bread.”

    I’ll take some free range game theory and a large life water.

  • mannmicj

    @tvsfrink said...

    “Game Theory” is the new “Craft Beer” or “Artisan Bread.”

    Way back in the day people who inhabit the Earth would just use the word “strategy.”

    Now days, everyone wants to come off as more of a professor.

    In the end, it’s still just strategy.

  • meerkatmreow

    @mannmicj said...

    Way back in the day people who inhabit the Earth would just use the word “strategy.”

    Now days, everyone wants to come off as more of a professor.

    In the end, it’s still just strategy.

    It’s not strategy, you need to game theory the antifragility to bink a fish and turn into a shark

  • qatman

    @pmsimkins said...

    The only real difference to the game that could affect your play is that the Jay Bruce or Chris Carter type player has slightly increased in value relative to the Jose Altuve type player.

    Lower OBP players gain relatively speaking because they are no longer penalized for outs. So for every player e(PA) is increased, but that value goes up higher for lower OBP players. However since e(PA) increases for everyone, the value of getting more PA is increased more as well, so that probably tends to balance out. I am too busy/lazy to run the numbers. The real beneficiary to this system would be a leadoff/#2 hitter with low OBP.

  • ksnoke

    I think the point here is that if high dollar pitcher A and low dollar pitcher B each score the same points/$, is it worth seeing if pitcher B is more likely to have a score that is not a multiple of 3 (and spending up elsewhere). Certainly not “scoring less points”. Regardless not sure if this is quantifiable

  • meerkatmreow

    Looking from 2005-2015, here’s the points you’d score for making through X outs:

    Outs: 16 FD score:20.5807050093 (n=2156)
    Outs: 17 FD score:22.9932371506 (n=2218)
    Outs: 18 FD score:28.8541061897 (n=10679)
    Outs: 19 FD score:29.3338171263 (n=2067)
    Outs: 20 FD score:32.9813753582 (n=2094)
    Outs: 21 FD score:38.1690826602 (n=9037)
    Outs: 22 FD score:38.4453038674 (n=905)
    Outs: 23 FD score:42.1124031008 (n=774)
    Outs: 24 FD score:46.1136767318 (n=2815)
    Outs: 25 FD score:45.8269230769 (n=156)
    Outs: 26 FD score:50.1707317073 (n=123)
    Outs: 27 FD score:55.7820976492 (n=1106)

    It makes sense that you’re going to score more the longer into the game you go. It appears though that given the choice, you definitely want your pitcher to hit at least 7 innings (21 outs) rather than getting pulled sometime in the 6th

  • RatedDAL

    I think the question is theorotically Does the pitcher going 7.1 hold more than just one point value compared to the pitcher that goes 7.

    Obviously you’d rather have a pitcher go 8 than 7.1. I don’t see how this has any predictive value though.

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