MLB FORUM

Comments

  • willcole79

    Having a discussion the other day involving ridiculous hypotheticals, and one of the questions asked was does it take more skill/talent to build a DFS lineup that is going to win a GPP or one that would finish dead last. Of course there would have to be certain criteria involved in trying to finish last you wouldn’t be able to just pick a lineup of people that weren’t playing. For instance in MLB everyone in your lineup would have to be in the starting lineup and if you did play someone who wasn’t starting you would get penalized with X number of points. What do you all think, is it easier to analyze the stats and metrics to determine if someone is going to be successful or is failure easier to predict, or do you think it would work the same either way and those at are successful now would be just as successful if they were trying to get the lowest score possible.

  • Olhausen

    @willcole79 said...

    Having a discussion the other day involving ridiculous hypotheticals, and one of the questions asked was does it take more skill/talent to build a DFS lineup that is going to win a GPP or one that would finish dead last. Of course there would have to be certain criteria involved in trying to finish last you wouldn’t be able to just pick a lineup of people that weren’t playing. For instance in MLB everyone in your lineup would have to be in the starting lineup and if you did play someone who wasn’t starting you would get penalized with X number of points. What do you all think, is it easier to analyze the stats and metrics to determine if someone is going to be successful or is failure easier to predict, or do you think it would work the same either way and those at are successful now would be just as successful if they were trying to get the lowest score possible.

    I would say failure is definitely easier to predict, especially in MLB. The best players only get a hit 30% of the time. So 70% of the time the best hitters fail to get a hit. So looking for bottom of the order players in the national league to try and get a super low score shouldn’t be nearly as hard as trying to find the guys that are going to hit a home run that night.

  • zshoom

    • 2016 Single Entry Series Finalist

    All things being equal – it’s definitely easier to predict failure than success simply because failure is a more likely result in baseball.

    To even things up, I think you would have to enforce a salary cap rule.

    If you had to spend within 500 of the cap, purposefully building a “low scoring lineup” would be tough. Our definition of low scoring would have to change…a 40 point dud of a lineup would be easy to make…but a 15 pointer? Not so much.

  • willcole79

    While I agree it is far easier to pick a low scoring lineup the question is would it be easier to pick the absolute lowest scoring lineup or the highest. In order to win a lowest score GPP you would almost have to predict a lineup of starters that weren’t going to get a single hit because one extra base hit or an underdog pitcher going deep could completely screw you. Since it is easier to predict failure there would be far more lineups toward the top of the rankings so you would have to be close to perfect to be the best. I’ve seen several winning GPP lineups where at least one of the players had 0-5 points i don’t think you could have an outlier like that in a winning low score GPP

  • zshoom

    • 2016 Single Entry Series Finalist

    @willcole79 said...

    While I agree it is far easier to pick a low scoring lineup the question is would it be easier to pick the absolute lowest scoring lineup or the highest. In order to win a lowest score GPP you would almost have to predict a lineup of starters that weren’t going to get a single hit because one extra base hit or an underdog pitcher going deep could completely screw you. Since it is easier to predict failure there would be far more lineups toward the top of the rankings so you would have to be close to perfect to be the best. I’ve seen several winning GPP lineups where at least one of the players had 0-5 points i don’t think you could have an outlier like that in a winning low score GPP

    With or without the salary cap enforcement?

    Without the salary cap, it’d be way easier to pick the lowest. I’m sure sometimes people would win (or lose?) with all zeroes and the worst pitcher on the board, but more often than not you’d wind up with worst pitcher plus 3-9.5 FD points for walks/singles/sac flies etc.

    With the salary cap floor, this becomes difficult because you’d need to pay up for boom or bust sluggers who go 0-4 frequently (but can crush the ball when they hit it). Assuming there’s no pricey pitcher in a poor matchup, you’d need to roster a few expensive bats to make the floor (because a middle of the road 3k a player lineup will most likely generate some hits/runs between them).

  • aka_the_goat

    Finishing last would be infinitely easier because everyone else in the contest is trying to win. If you had a contest where everyone was trying to lose, Razz DFS if you will, it might be a different story.

  • ihaveareputation

    • x2

      2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Al Smizzle and some of the other RG hosts used to do “lowball” contests which were exactly as you proposed. Everyone trying to underscore each other with active players who were destined to be the worst, and you had to spend within X amount of the salary cap. I think the “winners” sometimes got free t-shirts and whatnot.

    I remember playing one which ended up being my best-scoring lineup of the night… Ah, variance.

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    @ihaveareputation said...

    Al Smizzle and some of the other RG hosts used to do “lowball” contests which were exactly as you proposed. Everyone trying to underscore each other with active players who were destined to be the worst, and you had to spend within X amount of the salary cap. I think the “winners” sometimes got free t-shirts and whatnot.

    I remember playing one which ended up being my best-scoring lineup of the night… Ah, variance.

    Same exact thing happened to me in a lowball MLB contest. Picked a pitcher who shouldve gotten rocked and a Phillies stack against like Kershaw or someone really good. Ended up being a lineup that would’ve easily cashed in any GPPs regardless of entry fee haha. Probably would’ve won some of the high dollar ones.

  • Mindofigor

    My lineup would consist of all hitters in dodger stadium against kershaw.

    And my pitcher would be some scrub pitching in coors field.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).