• fsu1grk

    Well I bankrupted my bankroll with this weekends pathetic excuse for football. I do research, read articles and forums, watch podcasts and read up on projections…I don’t know if its bad luck or bad research, but every week it’s one thing or another, players getting hurt, under performing…Seems the more research I do, the worse I play!

    Was in two small $1 GPP’s for the weekend, one sat night-sun, and one sun only…put max lineups in both, 50/70 respectively using the lineup builder here…won $11 dollars lol The reason I played this way is ive had my only success in NFL with these small max lineup GPP’s.

    I realize its gambling, and things happen, but every week I listen to the “experts” and fail terribly! I don’t know how many times I read to fade Brown and Reed because of usage, don’t play Bryant or Adams, they are mostly useless anymore, Starks won’t be worth rostering, and Thompson wasn’t even worth a mention. All of these players were needed in some forms to cash this weekend. Bernard, Helfelt and Thomas were guys that can “win” the GPP’s for you this weekend so “they” said.

    Yes i’m just complaining here lol or maybe looking for a little insight as to what you winning players are doing that i’m not every week. I try not to play to much chalk, I try to be contrarian, but not to contrarian. GPP’s are hard I know, but I struggle even in the cash games with a losing record. I’ve been a good fantasy player over the last 10 years, but that definitely doesn’t translate to much. Oh well, there’s always next year!

  • klink21

    Who was saying to fade Brown and Reed in cash? That’s insanity

  • fsu1grk

    That was mostly for the GPP’s…I had exposure to them both anyway, but not enough for sure.

  • JSteele

    I only read one article this week and that was the edge by JMToWin. He doesn’t necessarily give you picks or anything just really good insight. Worked out well for me this weekend and has worked out in the past.

  • rotoryan

    NFL is tough. None of the things you mentioned as part of your research gives you an edge. May not be what you want to hear, but it is the truth.

    Full disclosure, I’m terrible at NFL DFS, therefore I barely play. I’m aware that there is no edge for me personally, so I stick to other sports.

  • Craptor

    Have access to better data than everyone else and be smart enough/understand the sport well enough to use that data to make good conclusions from it.

    Most people look at and read all the same things, so you’ll likely never have an edge over them if that is all you do. Basically if you haven’t developed your own model and have optimal player projections it is unlikely you will be a winner long term.

  • thatkid500

    Just pick safe players. Maybe you should try picking cheap qbs and stacking rb/wr.

  • cy1985

    So how much did you lose via the NFL? It’s gotten harder as the years have gone on. I’m down a few hundred from this year’s NFL. Next week is the final week.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #92

      RG Tiered Ranking

    NFL was tough. What I learned is that data is not as useful for NFL compare to other sports. There’s only 17 weeks in the regular season. You cant really draw conclusions from this. We spend too much time trying to find the best match-up and using rankings. But there are so many factors that throw these numbers out the window.
    To be successful in NFL, I think you have to understand game theory (being contrarian, ownership %, fading), being open minded (not be stuck on correlations, or expect a team to fall over), understand game flow, roster construction and lastly learn to ignore the hype and make your own conclusions.

  • bzsports4

    If you put your whole bankroll on the line in a messy 4 game playoff sate of gpps, then bankroll management is a bigger problem than your roster construction/ experts.

  • FunkyColdModella

    On FD, if you screw up the Defense or Kicker, you’re way behind the competition. If you didn’t have K.C. Def this week, you were way behind the competition.

    Heath Miller dud combined with DeSean’s egg sunk plenty of lineups for people.

  • troveur

    @fsu1grk said...

    I don’t know how many times I read to fade Brown and Reed

    I think I found your problem lol.

    In all seriousness…try next week if you can afford it and just analyze the games yourself and see where it leads you. Consider what team A might do if they are up or down and do the same for their opponent. Make some teams and tinker around with different guys and nail down some LU’s YOU like.

    Then maybe check out your favorite pod or article or whatever and see if they have any good insight you may have missed or ideas you never considered. Ignore all advice that says never do something—if you like a play then go with it especially in gpps.

  • ScoLuns

    • Blogger of the Month

    When I first started I sucked. When I finally removed every bit of emotion from choosing my picks is when I started seeing success. I just look strictly at matchupS and will plug in a guy I hate but know the numbers are in his favor

  • Joc31

    Your just a bad player. Stop blaming the analysts and focus on your game.

  • ActionJunkie

    The last half of the NFL season was crazy. I’ve never seen so much variance both of studs and duds in my 10+ years of salary-cap fantasy sports experience. And I don’t think I’ve ever seen defenses score 20+ as much as they did this year.

    With that said because of TD scoring, NFL will always be tricky especially because of defenses and sites that use kickers.

  • crazypaul

    I had a very good NFL season and I cashed this weekend as well. I will say that I DO NOT multi-enter. I build 1 lineup and enter it in as much as my bankroll can afford for the week. Maybe that is why I was so successful this season. This weekend, I focused on what I thought would happen in each game & it worked out pretty good. I completely faded the SEA-MIN game except for C. Michael. I wanted nothing to do with a game being played in negative temperatures. Sometimes you have to go beyond stats and accurately predict game flow & results.

    I will say that I stopped following pro advice a long time ago. Pro’s are people too and make mistakes. I do my own research, build a lineup, THEN I read what the pro’s are writing to see if I possibly missed something along the way. I use their advice more as a safety check to my own research.

  • Joe1Coal

    This past weekend was a little rough…no QB was any good until Rodgers and Cousins. Beyond those two, the QBs were all terrible. Alex Smith had 13fdp, I think he was the best the last time I checked (prior to the GB-WASH game).

    This weekend will be a completely different ball game, going to be a lot of QB points out there

  • hoodOO7

    @Joe1Coal said...

    This past weekend was a little rough…no QB was any good until Rodgers and Cousins. Beyond those two, the QBs were all terrible. Alex Smith had 13fdp, I think he was the best the last time I checked (prior to the GB-WASH game).

    This weekend will be a completely different ball game, going to be a lot of QB points out there

    Except he blew his bankroll lol

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    NFL was pretty brutal this year.
    As I mentioned in another thread – It seemed the overall quality of play this year was awful. Poor coaching, poor officiating, lots of injuries, awful line and QB play through much of the league, etc. etc.
    There were very few players or teams who were consistent.
    That being the case, it made DFS nearly impossible. It was nearly impossible to predict and project with much certainty the crap on the field this year.

  • jtwfantasy

    I thought this week was actually pretty easy. There were few play but the plays available were easy IE: Jordan Reed, KC defense. Runningback was a little hard but no play sank you unless you were foolish enough to pay up Peterson. There are many more more options this week and fitting them in is tough especially on FD.

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