Hello All and Happy 4th of July…God Bless America (hum the tune if you would like as you read)
First, I would like to reinforce an ideal in which many of you may agree with and also one that many of you will take retaliation to. Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is not a Skill based game,but rather a “luck” saturated environment. I would like to start out my discussion by asking for you to honestly answer if luck is dominate or is it saber-metrics?
Let us look at today (Sunday, July 3rd, 2016) for example. How many of you chose Mr. Lester as your top pitcher. There was no reason not to right? His stats were awesome. He had a season ERA of 2.11…Win% of 50…wOBA at .251…throws around a 100 pitches a game…and had an average fantasy point average of 30 points per game. What happened? The Cubs were playing the Mets which had, with the exception of Cespedes, wOBA’s all in the red.
Also and within the same theme, The BlueJays went on a mass HR tirade and were only predicted to score 4 points against Kluber. The wOBA in that game was also dismal for the most part.
I am a follower of Data, but at some point in our DFS interests we have to sit back and go…I do not think that will happen or I have a hunch. But, it is hard not to follow the data based decisions isn’t it? Or at least it is for me. I would be willing to place a $1000 dollar wager that all the prediction sites had picked Lester and Kluber as their top level pitchers along with a few others.
So I guess what I am trying to find out is what information was out there to not play these top guys? Show it to me and I will eat dog shit for a month. There is not any and that is why our beloved game involves luck. The leader boards on the DK Moonshot did not contain the normal names at the top. Argue this with me because I am trying to figure out a method for predicting this type of Variance and become better. Is it that on any given night you can say screw the research and just go pick players? If you did this would your win % stay the same, increase, or decline? I have a fairly good win , but it takes hours of daily Grinding. I am in the top 20 and better in Rotogrinder Rankings. You can check my profile and see if I am blowing smoke up your ass on that. I would really like your input and try to discover what part of the puzzle I am missing. Or, is it Luck will prevail on a few days so get over it..