• topspinner

    Does anyone know the formula for calculating team runs bases on the vegas o/u and ML?

    thank you

  • Ross

    This is from the above link:
    Calculating Projected Runs for each team comes from a combination of the runline, which in MLB is always set to -1.5 for the favored team, the game total runs scored line, and the overall game moneyline for a straight bet (i.e. the moneyline for betting on a team to win with no run-line).
    Each moneyline is associated with a probability percentage. So consider the following sample:
    New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
    Runline/Spread: Boston (-1.5)
    Game Moneyline: Boston (-155)
    Total Runs Scored: 9 Runs
    Each team’s projected runs would then be calculated with the following formula:
    = (SPREAD + TOTAL RUNS/2) + ((Spread Moneyline Probability Percent * Projected Runs)/2)

  • herberh2

    They have MLB team totals for everyday. I used to work there, these are shaped by some extremely sharp sports bettors.

  • topspinner

    Thanks for the responses. For the sportsbooks lines…you have a lot of -3.5 +130 or something like that, not sure what that equals to for team total. For the life of me I do not get the above formula, why there is an inclusion of the runline, since there is always juice associated with the runline…how can you use the same runline for each game? The vegas line page is up early today, which is great, but some of the lines make no sense. For example ML in detroit kc game is -102/-108which is close to a pickem but the team totals show 3.64/4.36. They should be about 3.9/4.1 approximately.

    someone posted a formula last year and I cannot find it, it involved subtracting from 200 and dividing by ML…I can’t remember the exact formulation, but do remember it worked well.

  • topspinner

    Team runs are still not correct on vegas odds page. White sox twins game is -105 both ways, basically a pickem, but team totals shows 4.13/4.87. Most games are as much off.

  • Riley

    RG Co-Founder

    @topspinner, it’s off according to what source?

    PinnacleSports shows that the Twins are a pick’em moneyline of -115, White Sox +106 at the time I’m writing this.

    Bovada shows something similar:

    So it seems that the Twins are clearly the favorite, and their projected runs should indicate that.

    I’m not sure what the “Moneyline” column on the “Vegas Odds” tool is showing, so I will defer to @CruzinToVictory for that, but it may be the “Adjusted Spread” instead of the Pick’em line. I do know that the “Starting Lineups” page run totals are based on the adjusted spread.

  • topspinner

    Riley, thank you for your response, but what is listed on the vegas odds page is the Money line odds, not the run line odds….I have been betting sports for twenty years and know the difference. If the ML is close to pickem, the team totals should be be about the same.

  • Riley

    RG Co-Founder

    Did you look at the bovada source? The moneyline is a decidedly non-pickem at -115/+105. The -105 that is shown for both teams on the Vegas Odds page is obviously in conflict with that, so I’m not sure what exactly is being shown in that column.

    The formula we are using for the “Starting Lineups” page is:

    (TotalPoints / 2) – (Spread * (100 / (AdjustedSpread + 100))) / 2

    The AdjustedSpread on this game is currently +175/-190.

  • topspinner

    One more attempt at this, clearly the formula that Rg is using for team totals is not correct, take a look at the min-tb game….which is about a pickem and it shows 4.5 for min and 4 for tb. I have come up with a quick and easy formula, which seems to get close for most games.

    Take the ml fave make it a pos number decimal number subtract one from it, multiply by .8 and add to half the game total.
    Let’s take cincy game today….1.5—1=.5*.8=.4 half game total is 4, so cincy would be 4.4 and san fran 3.6.

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