I have been playing DFS since last January on FanDuel. At the time, I had a wealth of NBA knowledge and some free time on my hands. I’m a pretty decent mathematician with solid Excel/VBA skills and I put them to good use. I was pleasantly surprised with my success over the course of the season.
At some point, I must have tricked myself into thinking that I could duplicate my success in baseball. This has proven to be difficult. Baseball is far more volatile, seems to require much more nightly research, and a significant understanding of the subtleties of the game. Although I’ve tried a few different analysis methods, I haven’t found anything that I can confidently say gives me a better chance to win on a given night.
I’m fully prepared to pack it in until October, but I thought I would see if any experienced players had any advice or answers for me.
1. Does anyone consistently win playing baseball without making multiple nightly lineups?
2. Does anyone know of a way to quantify the unpredictability of a hitter or pitcher on a given night? As far as I can tell, it seems that you can’t even predict just how unpredictable a player might be.
3. How many years do you guys use in analysis? Do you weight recent stats (as in the last few weeks) higher?
4. Has anyone had success in creating an automatic lineup creator (i.e. a macro that formulates 10 potential lineups)?
5. How do you handle players that are making their major league debut? Are minor league stats sufficient to profile a player, or should some adjustment be made?
6. Any suggestions on literature that has made a difference in the way you see baseball?