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  • milanman21

    Sorry I don’t consistently get these going, my real job sometimes doesn’t afford me the time to. Nonetheless, I’m squeezing in a few minutes with an early look at the 7-game Saturday slate for the Barclays Premier League:

    *home side listed first

    Chelsea (1/3) v Sunderland (9/1) Draw: 4/1
    Well, what’s new with Chelsea this week? Does anyone else here think that the Blues will go on a run now that Jose has been sacked? Let’s face it, he lost this team and pundits think he lost it as early as September. If this isn’t the only cure for this struggling champion, they get Sunderland at the Bridge. The Black Cats are brutal away, losing 5 of 6 away from the Stadium of Light and 4 of those losses conceding multiple goals. Willian will be the one everyone will flock to, but keep an eye on who starts at striker here, as I think that will be a strong play as well. If you’re into the broken house narrative with Chelsea, give Duncan Watmore and Yann M’Vila a look.

    Everton (evens) v Leicester City (27/10) Draw: 13/5
    Two of the in-form strikers in Lukaku and Vardy feature here. I prefer Lukaku, as Vardy will have a lot of his runs tracked by John Stones. Leicester are unbeaten away in their last six and scored multiple times in all six games, so I wouldn’t rule out a Vardy goal either. Everton have drawn three straight and they have all been score draws. In fact, the Toffees have one clean sheet in six, against Aston Villa. Love the wide guys in this one, midfielders and full backs. In short, this could be a game to stack, leaving you to find value in other games.

    Manchester United (4/9) v Norwich (13/2) Draw: 7/2
    David De Gea, David De Gea, David De Gea. Easily the chalk play in goal on Saturday, and while United have been brutal away, they have been a brick wall at home. They’re unbeaten in six at Old Trafford and conceded just one goal in the process. This includes goalless draws with Manchester City and West Ham. As fas as who to target in attack? Mata makes a nice play here, and you could go cheap and grab a guy like Jesse Lingard. Norwich have lost four straight away, conceding multiple times in three of those defeats. I have no interest in Norwich players on Saturday, but if you really feel you need one, Robbie Brady should start crossing the ball before he gets off the team bus.

    Southampton (8/5) v Tottenham (7/4) Draw: 23/10
    Southampton have lost three of their last four with the lone game being a draw with Villa. Not good, especially since the losses came against sides that are currently in the top half of the table. That’s what Tottenham is. Further problem is the Saints will be without Stekelenburg in goal. Gazzaniga may be an interesting GPP punt in goal as he’ll see some save volume. Bookmakers have this one pretty tight, and I also wouldn’t be surprised at a draw. Spurs might be unbeaten in six on the road, but only two wins here against Sunderland and Bournemouth. It has to be thoguht that they will want to put things right after the disappointing loss to Newcastle, but at the same time Southampton like to keep things tight at home. This will be a battle, and with some of the other players in simillar price points and favorable matchups, I’m not sure on the likes of Eriksen, Tadic, Kane or Pelle.

    Stoke (7/5) v Crystal Palace (2/1) Draw 23/10
    Stoke are unbeaten in 5 of their last 6, the loss coming to Sunderland away, but down to 10 men. 3 wins in this run; home against Chelsea and Manchester City with one away win at Southampton. 5 clean sheets in the last 6 as well with the only goals conceded coming in that short handed loss. So can someone explain to me why Butland is only 3500 for Stoke? I’m all over that play. Yes Palace have attacking quality, so much the better the young English keeper will have some saves. Palace have had a difficult run of away fixtures but most recently beat Liverpool and drew Everton away from Selhurst Park. If you think they can win at the Brittania, you’ll like Cabaye in midfield. Hennessey makes for a nice GPP play in goal as Palace are only a 2/1 dog. I don’t really see a goal fest here, and now that I’ve said that the match will end 3-2. Go figure.

    West Brom (7/5) v Bournemouth (2/1) Draw 23/10
    West Brom have Tony Pulis’ tactics half right this season; they are dangerous on the set piece, but not so water tight in defense. The Baggies aren’t going to be credited with being the sexiest team to watch, but they play an efficient game. That said, they’ll concede possession to their visitors and hope to hit on the break. Bournemouth are vulnerable in giving up goals on set pieces so WBA’s defenders are in play (2 defenders scored at Liverpool on set pieces). I also like Rondon and think he can score on Saturday. Winning 1-0 at Stamford Bridge against a Chelsea whose players didn’t like their coach only puts a band aid on the fact that Bournemouth’s away form is, well, rough. The Cherries were winless in 5 giving up multiple goals in each prior to the Chelsea win. I do like Ritchie and Stanislas a bunch, as they should rack up the peripheral stat points. If you’re a believer in Bournemouth, you might be giving Glenn Murray a go at forward as Josh King may not play.

    Newcastle (19/20) v Aston Villa (14/5) Draw 5/2
    I could see this game getting stacked with players from both sides as lineups will be looking for value. Newcastle have won two straight against Liverpool and Tottenham. Are they ready to turn a corner? Aston Villa are winless in forever, but they are playing better week after week under new manager Remi Garde. Villa now have a stretch coming up of many games against bottom half competition. If they’re going to get out of this mess, this would be good time to start. If you have exposure to multiple players in the match, have them in the flex at all possible as they are the later kickoff. Espeically as both teams may be rotating their lineups from their last match.

    There it is. Have at it!

  • blenderhd

    • 422

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #91

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Anyone fathom the reasoning behind DK replacing 50/50s with DUs across the board? I wouldn’t mind if they were 22-man, but at 23-man, it’s essentially a 5% rake hike. For cash game-heavy players, it’s definitely not good.

    Is DK really that desperate to squeeze out extra rake on one of their least popular sport offerings that, at least in the past few weeks, has shown a down tick in fresh blood? The only other explanation I could see is that DUs are more straight forward to casual users who may have not been enamored to enter contests that return less than double their money.

  • hambazaza

    RG Blog Program Manager, 2014 RG Party Beer Pong Champion

    • Blogger of the Month

    • Beer Pong Champion

    just another step in the gradual decline in what is my opinion, a great DFS sport that wont get popular because of the way they are managing it.

  • Bigo1

    A 15% rake is a joke for cash. One word: Mondogoal. I will post some H2H asap, so anyone can grab some action

  • bedwards

    Milanman21 great summary! You should blog it!

  • gcowboy5886

    @hambazaza said...

    just another step in the gradual decline in what is my opinion, a great DFS sport that wont get popular because of the way they are managing it.

    I keep wondering if any other dfs site would find soccer worth picking up. I agree draftkings has declined. I think it’d be worth some smaller site looking into this sport and creating a game. It could be a surprise positive addition if done right.

  • blenderhd

    • 422

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    • Ranked #91

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @gcowboy5886 said...

    I keep wondering if any other dfs site would find soccer worth picking up. I agree draftkings has declined. I think it’d be worth some smaller site looking into this sport and creating a game. It could be a surprise positive addition if done right.

    A smaller site picking up soccer may entice the already existing DFS regs, but there’s really just not a big enough market overall in the US for the sport to support the small percentage of those who’d then convert to playing DFS.

    I think DK’s main flaw in thinking is their over-reliance on promoting NFL under the guise that new players will then bleed over to the other sports. While this does indeed happen somewhat for college football, NBA and to some extent hockey & baseball, sports like golf, soccer & NASCAR have decidedly niche audiences – if someone is hardcore into them, it’s much highly likely it’s the only DFS sport they play.

    The best chance we have on DK’s soccer action increasing is their soon-to-be foray into the UK market, and for our sakes, their inevitable obnoxious ads running there every break on TV & radio.

  • pew_pew_pew

    • 267

      RG Overall Ranking

    @blenderhd said...

    A smaller site picking up soccer may entice the already existing DFS regs, but there’s really just not a big enough market overall in the US for the sport to support the small percentage of those who’d then convert to playing DFS.

    I think DK’s main flaw in thinking is their over-reliance on promoting NFL under the guise that new players will then bleed over to the other sports. While this does indeed happen somewhat for college football, NBA and to some extent hockey & baseball, sports like golf, soccer & NASCAR have decidedly niche audiences – if someone is hardcore into them, it’s much highly likely it’s the only DFS sport they play.

    The best chance we have on DK’s soccer action increasing is their soon-to-be foray into the UK market, and for our sakes, their inevitable obnoxious ads running there every break on TV & radio.

    I think the UK product will for the most part take care of itself if its the biggest kid on the block. That’s why I think relying on the UK so much doesn’t make sense, the UK will come in if DK has the biggest prize pools just like poker, the sites that have the biggest volume will generally attract the most players. DK for soccer has made changes that unfortunately is hurting the field which I think will hurt them in the UK and the product overall, lots of sites are offering similar generic soccer games, DK had a format that offers the biggest prize pools and had a growing NA base that has started to go the other way.

    I think the reasoning to cater to the UK by giving them what they are used to doesn’t make sense, there are already lots of sites that aren’t getting huge volume that are doing the same generic thing, DK can set the market for soccer and create it in NA which it began to do bringing in soccer fans and dfs fans from other sports and the UK will follow prize pools. DK needs to keep leading and innovating and soccer will hit its ceiling.

  • fcbjakub

    how about some picks ? lukaku and vardy in a shootout ???

  • EWizzle81

    Any cheap defenders worth a look? Wish Valera was starting for United

  • EWizzle81

    Any must plays?

  • badgerdores

    I’m playing half the volume I used to and considering playing even less.

    DK screwed this up so bad, but they’ve got much bigger issues to worry about like staying in business.

  • strassnerte

    @EWizzle81 said...

    Any cheap defenders worth a look? Wish Valera was starting for United

    Davies and Daniels

  • strassnerte

    @EWizzle81 said...

    Any must plays?

    I play Willian every week. Really like Costa to score 1 or 2 this week. Like Bojan for cheap

  • einars

    @badgerdores said...

    DK screwed this up so bad, but they’ve got much bigger issues to worry about like staying in business.

    ^^

  • wzander

    @badgerdores said...

    I’m playing half the volume I used to and considering playing even less.

    DK screwed this up so bad, but they’ve got much bigger issues to worry about like staying in business.

    I’ve withdrawn my entire balance with the exception of $200 which I will be using for the Boxing Day 50k Guaranteed.

    After that I’m calling it quits for DK soccer. Might look into Mondogoal.

  • hopkinst

    There’s been user decline in the past month or so and DraftKings decides to raise the rake 5% on 50/50s? Unbelievable…

    I know soccer is one of their smaller games but that is the exact OPPOSITE way you should run a business.

    Soccer related: James McClean is a bad puppy.

  • lfn1992

    Man, if I didn’t take Diego Costa I’d be in the running for a Milly ticket.

  • blenderhd

    • 422

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #91

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Had full exposure to Bojan & Adam Smith: awesome!

    Had McClean & Rondon combo in half my lineups: kick in the nuts!

  • Craptor

    Ya mcclean is a massive turd.

  • wzander

    @Craptor said...

    Ya mcclean is a massive turd.

    I find it incredibly ironic he called Klopp an idiot just this past week and then he makes such a rash tackle.

  • milanman21

    If you followed any of my input, I’m sorry.

  • ajump08

    DK read this forum, you are abandoning your customers.

  • ibasso

    @ajump08 said...

    DK read this forum, you are abandoning your customers.

    I think folks should place some comfort in the fact that DraftKings has historically shown that it is willing to listen to feedback and evolve. Some like the changes; some don’t like the changes; some have suggested small tweaks that may serve to compromise. I have confidence they’ll consider all of this feedback (because they have done so historically). There may not be a large enough amount of observable history under this format in order to definitively conclude that they should once again change gears, after having done so 2 months back. Full confidence, and thoroughly enjoying in the interim.

  • Jdizzy007

    • 339

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    • Ranked #59

      RG Tiered Ranking

    After boxing day, I will seriously reevaluate playing soccer on DK. With thr dearth of cash & gpp pools, I have to literally bet half my bank roll to have a decent pay day and one bad weekend like Saturday can clean one out. Coupled with the silly lineup/scoring change…Doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle anymore. Thinking i’ll just stick to NBA and mondogoal for soccer

  • Craptor

    @Jdizzy007 said...

    After boxing day, I will seriously reevaluate playing soccer on DK. With thr dearth of cash & gpp pools, I have to literally bet half my bank roll to have a decent pay day and one bad weekend like Saturday can clean one out. Coupled with the silly lineup/scoring change…Doesn’t seem to be worth the hassle anymore. Thinking i’ll just stick to NBA and mondogoal for soccer

    This post makes no sense.

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