PGA FORUM

Comments

  • whodat2

    When: February 15-18

    Where: Pacific Palisades, CA

    Course: Riviera CC | A par 71 playing at 7322 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Dustin Johnson at -17

    Last Year’s Cut: Even

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • lendahand21

    @walkoff9 said...

    Pretty much just playing the same guys I’m.on for full week.

    Have not looked at pricing but i imagine it will be easy to.fit who I want.

    DJ Fleetwood and pieters core.

    Kokrak?

  • golful

    same dude who thinks there is no benefit of statistical analysis in pga thinks dvp is the best metric for nba

  • walkoff9

    • 613

      RG Overall Ranking

    @lendahand21 said...

    Kokrak?

    Liked him coming in but didn’t play him. Usually roll with 1 lineup for the weekend so he probably wont make the cut for me.

  • lendahand21

    @golful said...

    same dude who thinks there is no benefit of statistical analysis in pga thinks dvp is the best metric for nba

    Imagine thinking dvp was a useful metric

  • whodat2

    I have over 100 employees…. last thing I need is to be responsible for something else. Maybe you though? I’ll give my glowing recommendation.

  • rysportguy

    @Aftereffect said...

    DvP. It shows that Drummond’s likelihood of success is much better against whatever signed street free agent is currently playing for the Nets versus, say, Rudy Gobert.

    There is no equivalent to DvP in golf. The golfer is essentially playing against himself; and therefore, it is harder to predict since with no direct outside force working against him, DFS players are left with trying to ascertain how a golfer(s) are feeling going into an event.

    Ehh personally I feel like this is a lame argument. Just cause you can’t find an edge in golf doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist. There is definitely variance involved but over time the sharps will do better than someone randomly picking players.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Aftereffect said...

    DvP. It shows that Drummond’s likelihood of success is much better against whatever signed street free agent is currently playing for the Nets versus, say, Rudy Gobert.

    There is no equivalent to DvP in golf. The golfer is essentially playing against himself; and therefore, it is harder to predict since with no direct outside force working against him, DFS players are left with trying to ascertain how a golfer(s) are feeling going into an event.

    Golfers don’t play against themselves, they play against a course. In today’s game the majority of golfers are playing courses they fill provide them with there best opportunity to do well.

  • BIF

    @Jamcclea said...

    Been a lively couple of days in this forum.

    You mess with one of us
    You get the whole Trailer Park !

  • BIF

    @Jamcclea said...

    So, who’s everyone feeling for weekend? Can fit DJ, Rory and Finau into a LU easily…

    JB gonna go ham tomorrow

  • walkoff9

    • 613

      RG Overall Ranking

    No dvp equivalent?

    What about course fit

  • lfn1992

    Aftereffect, sure I’ll play you in a golf h2h, thanks for asking

  • JimKronlund

    Aftereffect
    My honest opinion is that luck always plays a roll. To what degree I have absolutely no idea, but its there.
    There will never be a correct answer to this, so discussing how much luck is involved is completely futile. Luck is an absolute unknown identity and will always be an absolute unknown identity.
    In regards to skill; If a person uses any combination of analytics/Algorithms/statistics/direct history of playing competitive golf/or has watched and learned for many years. And applies their own methodology. There is not any chance what-so-ever that blindly picking players would ever have a greater success rate then the players that applied skill and knowledge. It would not even be close by a huge margin. To say that it would is just lunacy and no one could be bothered to even reply to someone that would be considered unbalanced.
    I am in no way saying that is what your view is, or that you are unbalanced. I am simply stating that if anyone was to express that no skill is involved. Does not deserve a reply.
    I hope that this discussion has run its course as it clearly has rubbed many highly respected posters the wrong way.
    Because of the tone of exchanges. It is not an enjoyable read for all our members. If that continues then I am forced to make sure that the forum members will only see posts that add to enjoyment factor. No one wants to read redundant argumentative posts for any length of time.
    I hope you see this as a respectful reply to you Aftereffect. Because it was meant to be respectful.

  • Aftereffect

    @JimKronlund said...

    I only play on DK as you probably already know. Its free to join as well. I dont want or need the lowest score thrown out.
    On DK its completely equal for both sides.
    I am suspicious if you say that you only play Fantasy Draft, and will not join DK. If you play DFS you really need DK if only for certain high $ events that are unmatched by any other site. Also other sports that others do not have.
    Also, it is important to play on DK as most players here only play DK and that allows everyone here to follow as well.
    As it is a lottery and you will lose no $. You have no reason (Edit) “NOT” to join.
    So please send me your DK name. So no need to bookmark or anything. Easy Peasy.

    If you will not do this on DK that tells me that you already have one and are known to us and want to hide that.

    No, I didn’t already know that. Why would I? I thought true DFS devotees played all the sites? How do you expect other (smaller) sites to succeed if you never give them a chance? For that matter, if you only play DK — as you so indicated — and others follow your example, how does that not facilitate DK’s monopolization of the industry and their inevitable raising of rake as a result?

    I suggested Fantasy Draft on account that one may actually post a contest link from that site on, say, a forum for instance, which allows those who did not play in that particular contest themselves to view the results of the contest. DK does not permit you to do that: the link is 404’d the moment the contest goes live. As well, I did not say you needed low score thrown out; I averred that having the low score thrown out would minimize/limit statistical anomaly, hence provide less subjective debate with the results.

    Moreover, playing H2H’s is antithetical to the point you’re trying to make — as well as the point I am trying to make. Your point being that statistical analysis can predict fantasy golf success; my point being that it is shear randomness that dictates consistent success in fantasy golf. Winning or losing to one other player proves nothing either way. (Actually, if anything, it proves my point.) Whether stats ameliorate one’s chances of success in DFS Golf is best determined playing against an entire field of amateurs/low-stakes players as free rolls tend to attract. And if stats alone are indicative of success therein, then you should be able to apply those same stats against an entire field with as much success as you can playing against one other person. That just goes without saying, does it not?

  • fluffynuggets

    @timusbr said...

    poems everybody we need poems.
    Ive missed my weekly poem where is it

    Widum and Squid
    Please save our souls
    The forum’s overrun
    By vicious trolls
    Where are you now
    We need your light
    Just to banish
    This awful fright
    Give us a GIF
    A funny post
    Many thanks
    From us, most

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Making some weekend lineups. Is Li going to be a sleeper?

  • tristanwolf

    amusing last couple pages. (especially after copious servings of whiskey this fine friday eve.). volatility is in the eye of the beholder imho. arguments can be made in many ways, but for me personally-
    1. nba (easiest to predict)
    2. nfl
    3. nascar
    4. mlb
    5. pga
    6. nhl (hardest)

    and while i am a low roller, i have won small gpps in all those except nascar (literally was tied for 1st in one until last lap last week) and nhl- just so tough to hit the right combo there, my white whale, to hit a 4 figure score in hockey!

    interested to see how others would rank, and congrats golf forum on hitting over 100 pages halfway through the tourney! should be a great fun year of talk and celebrating/crying!

  • golful

    i for one am disappointed at jim’s implication that his future posts may be removed. i think aftereffect and his perspective serve as a useful example of why dfs is still beatable. plus he also offers the opportunity for us to broaden our vocabularies

  • Aftereffect

    @JimKronlund said...

    Aftereffect
    My honest opinion is that luck always plays a roll. To what degree I have absolutely no idea, but its there.
    There will never be a correct answer to this, so discussing how much luck is involved is completely futile. Luck is an absolute unknown identity and will always be an absolute unknown identity.
    In regards to skill; If a person uses any combination of analytics/Algorithms/statistics/direct history of playing competitive golf/or has watched and learned for many years. And applies their own methodology. There is not any chance what-so-ever that blindly picking players would ever have a greater success rate then the players that applied skill and knowledge. It would not even be close by a huge margin. To say that it would is just lunacy and no one could be bothered to even reply to someone that would be considered unbalanced.
    I am in no way saying that is what your view is, or that you are unbalanced. I am simply stating that if anyone was to express that no skill is involved. Does not deserve a reply.
    I hope that this discussion has run its course as it clearly has rubbed many highly respected posters the wrong way.
    Because of the tone of exchanges. It is not an enjoyable read for all our members. If that continues then I am forced to make sure that the forum members will only see posts that add to enjoyment factor. No one wants to read redundant argumentative posts for any length of time.
    I hope you see this as a respectful reply to you Aftereffect. Because it was meant to be respectful.

    That is fine.

    By randomness I did not intend to insinuate that picking names out of a hat would be better than subjective prognostication. (With that said, in a non-cut event it actually might be as prolific.) Obviously talent tilts the advantage in any sport as it does in golf. So the Spieth’s, Garcia’s, Cantlay’s obviously have a better chance of success than the Tway’s, Curran’s and Poncino’s of the golf-sphere. But my point is when all things are equal, randomness plays a bigger role than statistics. Who to choose between Spieth, Garcia or Cantlay, and who to choose between Tway, Curran or Poncino is more random than statically conducive.

  • Aftereffect

    @walkoff9 said...

    What about course fit

    How did that work for DJ so far?

    For that matter, how has it not worked for Finau so far?

  • wolfshield

    “No gimmes! No mulligans! No bullshit! Let’s play golf!”

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    Stallings look interesting to me in weekend

  • Jamcclea

    @tristanwolf said...

    congrats golf forum on hitting over 100 pages halfway through the tourney! should be a great fun year of talk and celebrating/crying!

    Haha, can’t wait until the Masters thread. It’ll be the Hunger Games in here at this rate.

  • tristanwolf

    @Jamcclea said...

    Haha, can’t wait until the Masters thread. It’ll be the Hunger Games in here at this rate.

    lol how did we do at masters thread last year? 300 pages (just a guess) i am guessing we shatter all records for golf discussion though this year (especially with lfn and the euro chatter being in, though euro is a beast that i cannot tame!)?

  • whodat2

    @Aftereffect said...

    How did that work for DJ so far?

    For that matter, how has it not worked for Finau so far?

    Dude… what you don’t get is this: You are correct on DJ(for now) but….. We are not just playing the variance game with said golfers. We are playing the variance game against other DFS players, I don’t know why you can’t see this. So yeah…. all who saw DJ as an obvious play, get to share it with a LARGE percentage of others,….. the question is.. where did you differentiate?

  • Aftereffect

    @lendahand21 said...

    Dude, recent performance, type of grass, weather conditions for that week, where a course allows for most strokes gained, course history

    All these can be used to predict the outcome of a players performance

    Will it work everytime no just like in nba the top pros don’t win every night.

    I would say that it is perhaps because of this plethora of elements that are all considered in attempting to forecast fantasy golf success that makes it less reliable and far more unpredictable than other sports. This week one can hold up Mr. Choi as a point-made poster boy for it.

    On the flip side, at least in DFS Golf one’s lineups are rarely held up by aggravated groin pulls or threats of “Day of Rest” pending up until five minutes before lock. So, there’s that….

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