PGA FORUM

Comments

  • whodat2

    When: February 15-18

    Where: Pacific Palisades, CA

    Course: Riviera CC | A par 71 playing at 7322 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Bubba Watson at -12

    Last Year’s Cut: +2

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • dangasin

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea that’s definitely true. Although this is probably not important, one assumption you have is the distribution of golfers in your 5/6 is the same as the distribution of golfers in the 6/6. It’s probably a small thing to assume, but it could have some relevance. For example, perhaps the 1/6 MC in the 5/6 is more likely to be a low priced guy, thus making your 5/6s have better shots at T5 than the 6/6 since the 5/6 are more likely to be higher priced players. Not sure if that made sense. Probably not haha I’m not that good at math.

    That is a good point, I had to assume equal skill and equal salary. With all those constraints the percentages should be higher across the board.

  • dangasin

    superstars, you are very humble. I wish I was as bad at math as you claim to be lol.

  • dangasin

    now my spreadsheet says bryson dechambeu is the number 1 force. I have picked him every time he’s won a pga event, I don’t want to miss out on him

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mogan11 said...

    First lineup I built, the last open spot I had 9700 remaining. Not sure I can stomach bubba chalk.

    Don’t think Bubba will be chalk. There are several players 8k and above that are worth playing. I think around 18% will be the highest we see someone owned in the top end. I see several players in the 10-15%. I think the strength of the top of the field will balance ownership out. In general I don’t see anyone in the entire field being over 20%, DK did a very good job pricing this week.

  • dangasin

    @Cooper08 said...

    Don’t think Bubba will be chalk. There are several players 8k and above that are worth playing. I think around 18% will be the highest we see someone owned in the top end. I see several players in the 10-15%. I think the strength of the top of the field will balance ownership out. In general I don’t see anyone in the entire field being over 20%, DK did a very good job pricing this week.

    I think finau will be over 20%. He is back in the over 20% finau ownership price range….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @timusbr said...

    Wow this is a great event. It has to be one of the tops of 2019 season with regards to players and world rankings hence Strength of Field. I can see lots of value plays. Proven winners that are less than ave.salary(8300). Not that they are good recent form but, as Superstars pointed out RF has given a beating to some of us.

    I have in mind auto fades, but will try and resist that thought until I go thru process. looks like a 100+ LU week for me and the minimax.

    Will be interested to see were it falls strength of field. The field is top loaded but falls off quickly lacking the mid tier players. Usually you see the amount of players who are T50 playing in the 10-15 range while the 50-100 ranked range is 20-30. This week it is backwards.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @dangasin said...

    I ran a cross frequency on salary vs cuts made. I think the sweet spot is in the 9k range, and above that diminishing marginal percent increase.

    And the guys in the 9k for the most part have top 5 equity at least, so great bang for the buck

    Below is cuts made vs price for tourneys from Sony to Pebble…

    10k+ 23/24 96%
    9.9k-9.0k 28/35 80%
    8.9k-8.0k 33/50 66%
    7.9k-7.5k 32/59 54%
    7.4k-7.0k 68/149 46%
    6.9k-6.5k 97/203 48%
    6.4k-6.0k 74/198 37%

  • dangasin

    @Cooper08 said...

    Below is cuts made vs price for tourneys from Sony to Pebble…

    10k+ 23/24 96%
    9.9k-9.0k 28/35 80%
    8.9k-8.0k 33/50 66%
    7.9k-7.5k 32/59 54%
    7.4k-7.0k 68/149 46%
    6.9k-6.5k 97/203 48%
    6.4k-6.0k 74/198 37%

    Now that I think of it, I did mine by salary percentiles. I don’t know where I got the 9k range thing

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 552

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #86

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    CT Pan at 6800?

    Yes, please.

  • ValuableTrader

    @Dunzor said...

    The rough here is usually not that thick compared to some other places, so while the fairways may be hard to hit, guys can generally get decent lies in the rough which is what makes this more of a bomb and gauge style course and one Bubba has excelled on.

    To be fair though if we follow trends and stats, Bubba only wins this tournament in even numbered years so that means he clearly won’t perform well this year….that’s how this stats thing works right…right…nvm

    Personally I can never seem to get Bubba right and rarely play him, so I’ll be interested to see how my lineups shake out once I examine the field a bit more

    Yeah, Bubba and Phil kill me…I put them in same boat almost

    They are so risky because it’s Top 10 or nothing

  • dangasin

    ride or die bryson dechambeau 2019

  • dangasin

    Mastyuama 1.337 sg approach. Gotta pick him with that number

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @BrowInLockerRoom said...

    Bubba week.

    No, he only wins this event in even numbered years. Wait till 2020

  • lfn1992

    Just put in the first set of #BeatLFN contests this week – go gettum

  • sneaksox

    @superstars92 said...

    Oh I make my lineups by hand. But one thing I’ll do is like literally go 0% somebody. I see on fantasylabs contest dashboard, a lot of these guys who entered the tournaments 150 times (which is way more than I’ll enter) or so would do some weird scattering of like 10-20% of a ton of players. I’ll rather do like 0% (or like near 0%) of someone and like 3x the leverage on someone else. So like last week, I’ll just go 0% DJ. Yea, not really hedged. I’ll be screwed if DJ did well, but if he doesn’t that’s a huge advantage. I think it’s better than going like 10-20% everyone since that’s similar to covering all bases and losing the average rake (it’s more hedged but hedged doesn’t mean better). Luck is also important in a single GPP, long run it’s more important IMO. Like some sports like football I’m just not good at the long run, so even if I do well at a single GPP, it doesn’t say much about my ability.

    The reason I’m assuming most people do this 10-20% a lot of players is they must have had some algorithm where they entered their exposure and it creates lineups to that exposure level (correct me if I’m wrong, I think that’s how it probably works on here right?). The thing about making your lineups by hand is you don’t “remember” your previous exposures like some algorithm would. Every new lineup, I’m like “yep, still don’t like DJ” so I’ll end up having 0% DJ. So I guess to answer your question, I can’t really randomize in the way you are describing. If I don’t like someone, I’ll go 0% him, I won’t randomly” have him in 5% as a hedge. I’m not saying the “hedge” is necessarily bad, it’s just a different way to go about things and people might be successful that way too.

    Thanks for the insight. Congrats on another win!

  • Quadhole

    Mullinax is OUT

  • smallANDflaccid

    @Quadhole said...

    Mullinax is OUT

    Perry, Stricker, and Mullinax so far

  • Logan7777

    @lfn1992 said...

    If Bubba WDs like he did in 2017, this forum will be like

    I thought that was a normal Friday here.

  • dangasin

    I don’t know if I can go back to a 2 day cutline. too pampered last week

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    Oh I make my lineups by hand. But one thing I’ll do is like literally go 0% somebody. I see on fantasylabs contest dashboard, a lot of these guys who entered the tournaments 150 times (which is way more than I’ll enter) or so would do some weird scattering of like 10-20% of a ton of players. I’ll rather do like 0% (or like near 0%) of someone and like 3x the leverage on someone else. So like last week, I’ll just go 0% DJ. Yea, not really hedged. I’ll be screwed if DJ did well, but if he doesn’t that’s a huge advantage. I think it’s better than going like 10-20% everyone since that’s similar to covering all bases and losing the average rake (it’s more hedged but hedged doesn’t mean better). Luck is also important in a single GPP, long run it’s more important IMO. Like some sports like football I’m just not good at the long run, so even if I do well at a single GPP, it doesn’t say much about my ability.

    The reason I’m assuming most people do this 10-20% a lot of players is they must have had some algorithm where they entered their exposure and it creates lineups to that exposure level (correct me if I’m wrong, I think that’s how it probably works on here right?). The thing about making your lineups by hand is you don’t “remember” your previous exposures like some algorithm would. Every new lineup, I’m like “yep, still don’t like DJ” so I’ll end up having 0% DJ. So I guess to answer your question, I can’t really randomize in the way you are describing. If I don’t like someone, I’ll go 0% him, I won’t randomly” have him in 5% as a hedge. I’m not saying the “hedge” is necessarily bad, it’s just a different way to go about things and people might be successful that way too.

    I’m pretty much the same – build and enter by hand – never use Lineup Builders as they inherently use their projections to make them. Example – Saw someone complaining last week that RG’s builder was jamming in Hadley as they had him projected high.

    My view is that I don’t really want to underowm somebody and would rather just fade them and roll the dice like you. Sometimes when I get the field % wrong I end up with guys at 25% who are 30% owned by field when I thought they’d be 18-20%.

  • Dunzor

    @Quadhole said...

    Mullinax is OUT

    That’s good, I was tempted to play him this week but it would’ve been his 6th event in a row and that’s usually a declining spot so glad he took away the possibility

  • HunkerToe

    @dangasin said...

    I don’t know if I can go back to a 2 day cutline. too pampered last week

    The 3 day cut line actually hurt me. I had a couple of guys eject on Saturday.

    Still had a big week thanks to Phil though!

  • dangasin

    When tiger reaches his late 40’s, will he start dancing around in dress shirts he’d never actually wear? I would do it for a few million no problem

  • HunkerToe

    @dangasin said...

    When tiger reaches his late 40’s, will he start dancing around in dress shirts he’d never actually wear? I would do it for a few million no problem

    I’ll do it for fifty bucks.

  • BIF

    @lfn1992 said...

    Just put in the first set of #BeatLFN contests this week – go gettum

    Are you going to be doing any at higher than $1 ? Or should I just grab one of these ?

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.