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  • Sharpljp

    It seems like some in this community have a better handle on this than I do. There’s a few guys that I expected to be a little less owned. Tyrrell Hatton was a guy i thought would be sub-10% maybe lower, but in the Birdie (3$ GPP on DK) he was 20%. I would have had much less exposure to a guy who’s never played the course before had I known he would be so highly owned. Could you guys offer any tips on projecting for the PGA? Is Rotogrinders the most popular public source of PGA expert advice? Thank you all!!!

  • Mizikal

    I’ve personally always found PGA ownership the toughest to project accurately. I did a little experiment, late last year I think, to see if any major providers had a decent edge. I compared three sources with ownership projections, RG, Fantasy Labs, and Fantasy Fanatics to see if any were more accurate than the others. Unfortunately none stood out as significantly more accurate so I wouldn’t use ownership as a reason to subscribe to one site over another (all were overall decent with some sizable misses here and there). Maybe unsurprisingly taking an average of all three was the most accurate but it’s obviously not worth sustaining 3 subscription services just to average out ownership projections.

    What I gleaned from everything is that PGA both in results and ownership is simply a higher variance DFS sport. I personally feel that course history and tout buzz can be the two things that swing ownership the most. Again, that may not be surprising if you’ve followed PGA quite a bit already but when I’ve been way off in my own projections, its usually because I mis-weighted one of those two categories.

    To your specific example with Hatton this week, I had him around 16-17% so I wasn’t as surprised as you but I think that tout buzz had a lot to do with it. The articles I read and podcasts I listened to across the industry all had him as a great play. It’s possible all the talk of him being a sneaky or contrarian play pushed him up into chalk territory. I think to the lack of comfortable options at the top in Fowler and JT led to a more balanced lineup build overall this week.

    If all else fails there is a forum thread on here every week for every event. I recommend checking it out. Everyone in there is helpful and people toss around potential ownership pretty frequently. Crowdsourcing never hurts with ownership.

    I’ve been hearing a lot about that site FanShare, I think, that people have mentioned in connection with ownership and buzz but I haven’t checked it out personally yet so I can’t offer any opinion. May be a good resource though.

    I’m just realizing how many words this is, sorry, ownership is constantly on my mind these days for PGA. Hope it was helpful.

  • Garrincha67

    @Sharpljp said...

    It seems like some in this community have a better handle on this than I do. There’s a few guys that I expected to be a little less owned. Tyrrell Hatton was a guy i thought would be sub-10% maybe lower, but in the Birdie (3$ GPP on DK) he was 20%. I would have had much less exposure to a guy who’s never played the course before had I known he would be so highly owned. Could you guys offer any tips on projecting for the PGA? Is Rotogrinders the most popular public source of PGA expert advice? Thank you all!!!

    It takes time but eventually you get a hang of it from checking different sources. Fan Share Sports is a must as they nail the top ownership in Golf so recommend registering there. Hatton was always going to have high ownership as there was a lot of buzz and tout talk on European link style players doing well at Honda Classic. Agree on ownership in Golf it is very crucial more so than other DFS sports.

    https://www.fansharesports.com/golf/trends

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