• clint08911

    I love DFS, but lately I have been getting killed, and it’s real hard to know am I just picking bad lineups, or is it just the variance that is getting me. I come from a poker background and the vast majority of plays you know if it was the right move and even if the other player sucks out that eventually it will average out. I am wondering how you go back over and judge your line ups after the fact and know well was this a bad lineup that I got lucky on, or is this a good line up, where it was just the variance that got me?

  • Njsum1

    You don’t know, and there’s no real way to tell. You can go over your plays and see where you may have missed something, like important news, and say I shouldn’t have missed that. Or if you missed that min price point guard who was 80 percent owned, and in a good spot to 10x his salary, yet got injured in the first quarter, then you can say I got lucky. Other than that just watch your bankroll, if it’s been declining for longer that 5 or 6 weeks, you probably need to adjust your strategy a bit. Yet day to day won’t tell you that much.

  • Shipmymoney

    • 57

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #14

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    For NBA specifically, going back and looking at things like minutes/rotations and field goal percentage can be helpful. If your low-owned guy shot 2-15 and played 38 minutes you were probably unlucky. If he played 20 minutes and it wasn’t the result of foul trouble/blowout then see if you missed something in your research that should have told you he would see less minutes than you expected. And by the same token you can look back at popular plays you didn’t have with the same things in mind. You obviously won’t get exact equity calculations like you could in poker but it should still give you an idea of if your process is flawed or not.

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