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  • laxin

    Last season I tried daily MLB for the first time, and about halfway through created a spreadsheet that generated a lineup based on projections and certain weighting factors based on splits and stats… Turns out after a lot of time working on it, it didn’t seem to work much. My thinking now is that using imported projections from fantasy sites can be severely flawed.

    With the upcoming season approaching, I am trying to figure out the best way to utilize a spreadsheet, since it seems to be a helpful tool to almost everyone that is successful with DFS…. so how do you setup your spreadsheet? Do you use it to just provide a place to more easily sort through data from sites like fangraphs? Or do you use an optimizer to spit out lineups? Thoughts?

  • TeHDruiD

    Baseball is filled with variance, you don’t really want to use projections because even the best hitters go 0-4 etc etc etc

    Fangraphs.com is your friend though. Every day you can generate a report with all of the stats you want which you can export from the site and then import into excel. From there you’ll have all of the stats neatly organized and will be able to base your decisions off of what you see

    Baseball is another sport (like hockey) where you want to stack teams, because everything positive has a trickle down effect on the rest of your lineup. If they all stink it up, you lose. If they do well, you’re going to score big points

  • laxin

    Thank you for the reply… Forgive my ignorance, but why are spreadsheets so popular and utilized if they are just a glorified organizer of data from fangraphs (or any other statistical site)? If they arent used to optimize a lineup, then what function do they actually provide that is so beneficial?

    I like having things consolidated and organized in a way thats easy to read, so they still seem useful… Im just trying to figure out if they provide a function or end goal that Im not aware of

  • crazypaul

    @laxin said...

    Forgive my ignorance, but why are spreadsheets so popular and utilized if they are just a glorified organizer of data from fangraphs (or any other statistical site)? If they arent used to optimize a lineup, then what function do they actually provide that is so beneficial?

    Like someone said above, in MLB it’s very difficult to “optimize” a lineup based on projections because of the variance. However, I found my MLB spreadsheet to be a HUGE time saver. I set it up to display all of the stats I deem important. Then I weighted those stats and gave them a range and a value for that range. So instead of predicting that Mike Trout will score 12 FTPS on a specific day, my spreadsheet takes all of the stats I have in my spreadsheet, matches it up with the handedness of the pitcher, and then spits out a rating between 100-0. I then use those ratings to help me build my lineups. I also have a tab that predicts what teams will have the best day based on pitching matchups and team stat history and use that to help me search for the best stacks for the day.

    Hope that helps.

  • laxin

    @crazypaul said...

    Like someone said above, in MLB it’s very difficult to “optimize” a lineup based on projections because of the variance. However, I found my MLB spreadsheet to be a HUGE time saver. I set it up to display all of the stats I deem important. Then I weighted those stats and gave them a range and a value for that range. So instead of predicting that Mike Trout will score 12 FTPS on a specific day, my spreadsheet takes all of the stats I have in my spreadsheet, matches it up with the handedness of the pitcher, and then spits out a rating between 100-0. I then use those ratings to help me build my lineups. I also have a tab that predicts what teams will have the best day based on pitching matchups and team stat history and use that to help me search for the best stacks for the day.

    Hope that helps.

    Thanks for the help! That sounds more along the lines of what I was thinking. I never thought of predicting what teams would have the best day… what stats do you use to predict that? Opposing pitcher, ballpark factors… maybe Vegas lines?

  • crazypaul

    @laxin said...

    Thanks for the help! That sounds more along the lines of what I was thinking. I never thought of predicting what teams would have the best day… what stats do you use to predict that? Opposing pitcher, ballpark factors… maybe Vegas lines?

    Some of the stats I use are Ballpark Factor, Vegas betting lines, Team Matchup Splits vs Handedness (K%, ISO, wOBA ect…), Pitcher Stats Season(K%, GB%, FB% ect…)

    I pull most of my stats from custom reports I made in Fangraphs and I use Google Sheets instead of Excel because in Sheets you can use the =ImportHTML and it will auto import the data into your sheet every day.

  • myb821

    @crazypaul said...

    Some of the stats I use are Ballpark Factor, Vegas betting lines, Team Matchup Splits vs Handedness (K%, ISO, wOBA ect…), Pitcher Stats Season(K%, GB%, FB% ect…)

    I pull most of my stats from custom reports I made in Fangraphs and I use Google Sheets instead of Excel because in Sheets you can use the =ImportHTML and it will auto import the data into your sheet every day.

    can you auto import all the data even when fangraphs has it in multiple pages?

  • crazypaul

    Yes, you just have to change the “page” number in the web address to cover all of the results. So if there are 643 results, I change page=1_50 to page=1_700 in the web address.

  • myb821

    wow good to know thank you

  • Storm

    Does FanGraphs give you stuff like Vegas lines and park factors? Do you combine that on one spreadsheet or onto multiple spreadsheets?

  • myb821

    @Storm said...

    Does FanGraphs give you stuff like Vegas lines and park factors? Do you combine that on one spreadsheet or onto multiple spreadsheets?

    lines no park factors yes.

  • crazypaul

    I make a sheet for each thing I want on my workbook and then combine everything I want to see into 1 main sheet using vlookup or index/match. Ex: 1 sheet for vegas odds, 1 sheet for ballpark factors, 1 sheet for pitching stats, 1 sheet for hitting stats, ect…)

  • laxin

    @crazypaul said...

    I make a sheet for each thing I want on my workbook and then combine everything I want to see into 1 main sheet using vlookup or index/match. Ex: 1 sheet for vegas odds, 1 sheet for ballpark factors, 1 sheet for pitching stats, 1 sheet for hitting stats, ect…)

    Where can you get vegas odds in a format that you can use google sheets to look up?

  • myb821

    @laxin said...

    Where can you get vegas odds in a format that you can use google sheets to look up?

    Rg?

  • Undonersg

    • Blogger of the Month

    Do you keep correlations on how well or poorly your model is doing? You always want to see how linear the model is and if it is a good predictor looking at the residuals. This can be done on Excel by taking your projection versus the actual fantasy points.

  • myb821

    @Undonersg said...

    Do you keep correlations on how well or poorly your model is doing? You always want to see how linear the model is and if it is a good predictor looking at the residuals. This can be done on Excel by taking your projection versus the actual fantasy points.

    except no one really project points for baseball

  • rdogg63

    I’m having some issues I hope someone can help me solve. When I import Fangraphs data into Google Sheets, I can’t sort the numbers from ascending to descending and vice versa. Anyone know what I’m doing wrong?

  • crazypaul

    Highlight your table in Sheets. Then go to Data > Filter. It will create filter buttons on each column.

  • rdogg63

    Thank you!!

  • Vikingsguy

    Does anyone have a useful vegas lines site that good to pull into Excel?

  • crazypaul

    @Vikingsguy said...

    Does anyone have a useful vegas lines site that good to pull into Excel?

    The site I was using made a coding change recently and now the import formula is no longer working. I also could use a good site, all of the ones ive found dont pull the info in a useful way.

  • Vikingsguy

    Actually, check out Excel’s power query add-in. Pulls tables similar to Chrome’s table capture feature, but directly in Excel.

  • foomanfish

    It doesn’t seem like Fangraphs has updated the 2015 ballpark factors. Do you use any site for ballpark factors?

  • meerkatmreow

    @foomanfish said...

    It doesn’t seem like Fangraphs has updated the 2015 ballpark factors. Do you use any site for ballpark factors?

    Fangraphs uses 5 year regressed park factors. Barring a major park change (move the fences or install video boards or something that significantly alters the wind) there isn’t going to be a lot of change from year to year. In fact, the 2014 and 2013 fangraphs park factors are identical. The biggest changes comparing the 2013 to 2012 ones were at Safeco and Petco, both of which moved/changed the fences.

  • foomanfish

    Thank you.

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