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  • bozzburg

    Im trying to understand something here. Because to me it just doesn’t make sense. Im not new to fantasy, lately I have had more time to invest in understanding the nuances of buildin lineups. But I am seeing what seems to me unexplainable but correct me if I am wrong.

    Week after week so far in NFL, I am seeing top lineups that are winning huge DFS GPP’s with players who really are unusable. With that being said, my definition of unusable may be entirely different to someone else because lets face it, handicapping sports everyone is going to have an “opinion”

    Example:

    Tyler Kroft- expected to put up 0 points puts up 24.80(Drafted at 1.34%)

    Now that is just one random example. But this consistently happens. Now I TOTALLY understand that in GPP’s you need a defining differentiating player to take down tournaments.

    I just want to know what I am missing here because I have the balls to use low drafted players but only when they are projected to perform.

    Is this just a case of someone having 100 entries in one contest and putting low drafted players in hoping they put points up and got lucky?

    Are people using computer programs to generate lineups?

    Does anyone hand build lineups?

    I just want to decide if DFS is all about using a computer program to build lineups or is there any skill at all involved in this anymore. Seems to get harder and harder each season. Because Im sorry, I dont know how people are using some of these players that are picked. Sometimes you can read between the lines and other times you just have players who never perform. I just dont get it.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    With the size of most GPP’s being so large, most winning lineups will normally have players at 1-2% owned. It’s those players that make a lineup surge ahead of everyone else.

    Kroft was even suggested by our own stlcardinals84 in the NFL Grind down as you can see here: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-grind-down-week-4-page-two-2087527

    “Cleveland has been torched by tight ends twice so far this season, so you could do worse than using Tyler Kroft as a cheap tight end play. He saw four targets in Eifert’s place a week ago.”

  • Roma315

    • 620

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #71

      RG Tiered Ranking

    When I toss in a few high priced players I need to find one or two min priced players. Once that happens I research which players could possibly go off. Sometimes he gets 0 sometimes much more. It’s the second or third RB/WR who is hot that day and the QB keeps going to.

    This week I was shocked Powell was only 8% owned when he was taking the workload. At $4.6k he made 32points.

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @bhdevault said...

    Kroft was even suggested by our own stlcardinals84 in the NFL Grind down as you can see here: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-grind-down-week-4-page-two-2087527

    I also had a five figure score on FanDuel yesterday thanks to a Kroft lineup, so that wasn’t all smoke and mirrors!

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    Where do you get the “expected to put up 0 points from”?

  • jimmyd1507

    @Roma315 said...

    When I toss in a few high priced players I need to find one or two min priced players. Once that happens I research which players could possibly go off. Sometimes he gets 0 sometimes much more. It’s the second or third RB/WR who is hot that day and the QB keeps going to.

    This week I was shocked Powell was only 8% owned when he was taking the workload. At $4.6k he made 32points.

    Powell doesn’t have much at all if he doesn’t trip and fall.

    Take off the 70+ yards, the 3pt yard bonus, and the TD, and you have an average game, which is where most sensible people picked him.

  • mark83vt

    I don’t use computer programs to generate lineups. I generally have about 3 QBs, 4 or 5 RBs, 7 or 8 WRs, 2 or 3 TEs, a high end DEF and bargain DEF in mind, and then will build a handful of lineups with those combinations. I may be crazy, but I don’t put a lot of time into trying to decide who will have low ownership. When I hit big in week 2, I did fade Cooper in favor of Crabtree because it seems like people were determined to pimp Cooper going into this season despite Crabtree’s pension for finding the end zone. That’s about as far as I went on considering ownership numbers. It turned out that Sanders was only 1.5% owned, which was shocking to me, but I had no idea that would be the case when I took him. This week I took Fuller and Watson in a bunch and was pretty sure that stack would have low ownership, but again, I was surprised at just how low Watson’s ownership was. Fuller I expected to be low, but I thought a lot would do Watson + Hopkins.

    Now when you get to 2-game slates…Primetime, Monday/Thursday, etc…ownership considerations become huge. I took McKissic in 14 of my 19 lineups because I assumed everyone would be on Carson, Hunt, and Thompson. Usually people use the WR spot to try to pick “that guy” for those slates, so if you can buck the trend with a QB or RB (especially on FD where there is no flex) it makes a huge difference.

    Don’t get discouraged though, and certainly don’t think you need computer generated lineups to win.

  • Roma315

    • 620

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    • Ranked #71

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jimmyd1507 said...

    Powell doesn’t have much at all if he doesn’t trip and fall.

    Take off the 70+ yards, the 3pt yard bonus, and the TD, and you have an average game, which is where most sensible people picked him.

    Take away his entire game? At the price point it was hard not to try him in a few lineups. I don’t toss 150 LUs in. I typically only do the single, 3 max, or 20 max GPPs. If I do 150 max contest I only enter 20-25 LUs.

  • monds6

    • 158

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x2

      2015 DraftKings FCFWC Finalist

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSFC Finalist

    It is called variance. He had the opportunity to play meaningful snaps due to an injury. Do not use projection systems to build your line ups. I have never used a computer to build a lineup in my life. You need to understand there are several variables to building a successful lineup, especially in the NFL. You need to understand what role injuries play in opportunities for players. There are always players in the NFL that are low owned that go off from week to week. It is a tough sport to get right every week.

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