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  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    How many people actually play DFS regularly?
    I read somewhere that fanduel claimed roughly 130,000+ active players in its peak month of Nov 2013. Then, I read a news article that said roughly 20,000 people play DFS regularly. What is the reality? Also, if fanduel owns 70% market share for the paid contest players … how are the 30+ other DFS sites chugging along? Are they even growing? I’d think you can be very small and profitable as a niche. Or, to scale big, you’d see open balloon for some time before hitting profitability.

  • sethayates

    This article says more than $1 million users spend an average of 8 hours per month. I find that hard to believe though considering FD said they had around 130,000 during NFL

    http://betaboston.com/news/2014/03/03/how-draftkings-plans-to-win-the-fantasy-sports-startup-wars/

  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thx Seth. Yeah, the math doesn’t work out. If FD says 130k on their peak month … and FD claims to own 70% market share of paid contests … then we get this million figure. Hmmm. Hard to tell if “growth” means actually more unique active users OR is it just same people playing/spending more. I’d think growth of new users who remain active is more important to DFS.

  • JBigg23

    I don’t believe any of DKs numbers saying they have over a million users. LOL

  • theclash

    Interesting sethyates brought that article up, because I saw it as well and the math made no sense to me. DK says they have one million+ active users? If they did, they’d probably be paying out $200 million every month.

    I was pretty sure I’d seen the one million number before in relationship to DK. And yep, they’ve been using that number since May of 2013.

    In May 2013 they claimed they had a million users across mobile and web: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130506-903150.html

    Then in late November 2013 they claimed they had a bit more than a million registered users: http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/26/daily-online-fantasy-sports-become-real-as-draftkings-closes-24m-round/

    But in another article done at the same time in late November 2013 they said they had tripled their total userbase during NFL – which naturally calls into question the original one million number to begin with: http://www.forbes.com/sites/darrenheitner/2013/11/26/daily-fantasy-sports-provider-draftkings-secures-substantial-amount-of-series-b-funding/

    In a February article they then said they’d quadrupled their total userbase during NFL to hit…..one million users: http://www.redpoint.com/the-super-bowl-of-startups-interview-with-draftkings-ceo-jason-robins

    And then the most recent BetaBoston article.

    DK either sucks at math or has a short memory.

  • adnoble

    sometimes i wish i only spent 8 hours a week…

  • tipster808

    @theclash said…

    Interesting sethyates brought that article up, because I saw it as well and the math made no sense to me. DK says they have one million+ active users? If they did, they’d probably be paying out $200 million every month.

    I was pretty sure I’d seen the one million number before in relationship to DK. And yep, they’ve been using that number since May of 2013.

    In May 2013 they claimed they had a million users across mobile and web: http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130506-903150.html

    Then in late November 2013 they claimed they had a bit more than a million registered users: http://venturebeat.com/2013/11/26/daily-online-fantasy-sports-become-real-as-draftkings-closes-24m-round/

    But in another article done at the same time in late November 2013 they said they had tripled their total userbase during NFL – which naturally calls into question the original one million number to begin with: http://www.forbes.com/sites/darrenheitner/2013/11/26/daily-fantasy-sports-provider-draftkings-secures-substantial-amount-of-series-b-funding/

    In a February article they then said they’d quadrupled their total userbase during NFL to hit…..one million users: http://www.redpoint.com/the-super-bowl-of-startups-interview-with-draftkings-ceo-jason-robins

    And then the most recent BetaBoston article.

    DK either sucks at math or has a short memory.

    I would assume that the BetaBoston article line was a mistake. The writer probably was told 1m, but that was registered users. 1m active definitely seems like a mistake on the writer’s part. I’m pretty sure CBS and NFL are around 1m active users.

    But was kind of surprised to see DK has been claiming 1m users since last May. I guess all I can say is who knows how many people they actually have?

  • fishcakeking

    FCK

    Football season vs now is a huge difference. During NFL id say the number is low 6 digits now Id say 5 digits.

    FCK

  • winsome

    DK is DREAMING at 1m. All you really have to do to get a good idea of how many players are on a site is count the H2H’s in the lobby and then extrapolate by maybe 10%-15% (max)

    I simply cannot fathom the hemorrhage at DK with all of their overlay and although they seem to be running good they have absolutely zero margin for error. I think they are operating on an extreme leap of faith that the business will grow at a pace that will far outgrow their losses. If I were an investor it simply would not be happening fast enough

  • kittenkisses

    I mean I’m not sure why anyone pays attention to anything a site says except for what they put out there in action.

    Its really all face up regardless of what their CEO’s say.

    All this inflated projecting and boasting does is reduce the credibility of their site on the whole, but I guess its part of the investing game.

  • theclash

    @kittenkisses said…

    I mean I’m not sure why anyone pays attention to anything a site says except for what they put out there in action.

    Its really all face up regardless of what their CEO’s say.

    All this inflated projecting and boasting does is reduce the credibility of their site on the whole, but I guess its part of the investing game.

    That’s something that increasingly bothers me about certain sites, the marketing is……up for some debate.

    Like today I got an email for DK’s MLB Opening Day with $500,000 in prizes. Since the majority of DK’s action is guaranteed, it’s pretty easy to see if that number is correct. And guess what? Like the active users number, it’s not. They have about $350,000 guaranteed for MLB right now.

    Now, I get that $500,000 is a forecasted target. And they’re saying that they’ll do $150,000 in payouts via non-guaranteed stuff on top of what’s guaranteed. But what if they don’t hit that number? We’ll never know. Frankly I’m not sure why they’re not calling it a million for Opening Day. Not like there’s anyone to police it anyway.

  • fishcakeking

    FCK

    Dk has increased rake to help counter balance overlay. Also using qualifiers helps soften overlay as they can rake twice.

    I think for all dfs sites during non nfl months they have to reinvent the wheel to make things work.

    I wonder how many new players mlb will bring. I hope a lot, but it’s probably 10% of expected new players in September.

    FCK

  • redcoat

    I noticed this the other day when reading the Beta Boston article. Draftkings and possibly other sites #‘s seem to be very inflated. My guess is DK realistically has about 300k users max. Any idea how many total users FD or DS has?

    Any site reps wanna clarify? Fatal? Waiver?

  • waiverwire

    @redcoat said…

    I noticed this the other day when reading the Beta Boston article. Draftkings and possibly other sites #‘s seem to be very inflated. My guess is DK realistically has about 300k users max. Any idea how many total users FD or DS has?

    Any site reps wanna clarify? Fatal? Waiver?

    Through the end of February, on FanDuel we had 796,908 registered accounts, of which 296,922 had made deposits.

    According to a NY Times article from the end of November, DraftStreet had over 350,000 registered users.

  • tipster808

    Appreciate the answer, waiverwire.

    Very fascinated by this. The registered accounts for FanDuel and Draftstreet make sense, given how long both have been around.

    I would think most of the small sites have not reached many people historically, so between FD, DS and other sites (not counting DK), we’re likely looking at around 1m registered accounts – since there will be some natural crossover among sites. Not sure how many accounts are active. I think fishcakeking is right that probably six-figures in football season, five for NBA, NHL, MLB. I know there is plenty of debate over how many actual fantasy players there are, but at least this suggests DFS is still a long way from being a saturated market.

    Conversely, I guess it is worth questioning DK’s repeated use of 1m registered accounts. Unless they paid for some list of people, it seems pretty unlikely they actually have that many people registered. FanDuel has been regarded as the industry leader in marketing for a long time, so for FanDuel to have significantly less than 1m registered users, DK’s 1m registered number definitely raises eyebrows. And if it is true, it means DK is having a lot of trouble converting players.

  • theclash

    @waiverwire said…

    Through the end of February, on FanDuel we had 796,908 registered accounts, of which 296,922 had made deposits.

    According to a NY Times article from the end of November, DraftStreet had over 350,000 registered users.

    Nice. This makes me even more interested in how many registered users DK actually has.

    I also don’t get why they’d continually say they’ve signed up a million people. That doesn’t mean anything unless they’re playing. You could sign up 100 million people for a DFS site, but it doesn’t mean anything unless they play.

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