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  • mtdurham

    Hey guys I’m pretty familiar with DFS, game theory, and the NFL itself… but this will be my first year playing.

    Would be interested in getting a thread going where we share ideas to improve. I will be glad to contribute as well once I have a week or two under my belt and feel I have something of value to add.

    But if you had a chance to know 1-2 tidbits going into your first NFL DFS season that you did not know at the time, what would htey be???

    This can be anything from how to approach stacks, fades, roster construction, projections, ownership plays, game theory, whatever….

    Just what is something specific to NFL that you feel would have helped you improve a lot had you given it proper attention, weighting, and consideration earlier on in your DFS NFL career?

  • mtdurham

    @CleverGroom said...

    The RBs question is very situational. Part of the problem is that coaches usually don’t game plan rationally around the same stats that we’re looking at. Just because the Titans play a team with LBs and safeties who can be exploited in coverage doesn’t mean that Matt LaFleur will give extra snaps and opportunities to Dion Lewis over Derrick Henry.

    Part of the game is learning the coaches’ tendencies. Kyle Shanahan is brilliant at exploiting RB mismatches in the passing game. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels can reinvent their entire offense on a weekly basis, but they usually have so many versatile RBs that we have to wait for injury situations if we want clarity. Doug Pederson and Frank Reich are committed to Running Back By Committee (RBBC), which usually renders all of their RBs unplayable outside of GPPs.

    One thing I’ll note is that there’s an edge in watching preseason for usage. One thing I’d hoped for, coming into this season, was more Corey Grant in a satellite/3rd-down back role. The good news/bad news is that we’re seeing more passing work to Leonard Fournette instead. I might’ve taken some shots on Grant early, but now my takeaway is that Fournette could be a better play than he showed last year.

    Ezekiel Elliott is another example. Going into the offseason program, we heard that Tavon Austin would be used as a satellite back. Instead, he’s lined up almost exclusively at WR. We haven’t seen Zeke in any preseason games, but the word from DAL is that he’s going to see more passing work this year. That’ll be incredible if it’s true.

    As for winning scores, the 4for4 articles I linked earlier will give you some food for thought. Your target scores should vary by salary and by position, and they’re not linear. Getting 3x on a $3,000 WR is very different from getting 3x on a $9,800 RB (hint: the first one sucks).

    Thanks for all this info very detailed. And yes i played a lot of NBA so im familiar with needing big games from the $3k guy and just hitting value with the high priced guys… obv. that is a key concept as you cant expect the most expensive players to CRUSH value and you’re screwed if you dont get enough raw points from each guy…

    Im going to check out all the things you linked and see what i come up with…

    I can see what you’re saying about the QB and negative gamescript… i guess in fantasy football you were always thinking like “okay good they’re down he’s gonna throw so maybe i can get enough points to pull off this win“but in fantasy football you’re playing heads up….. and in this game youve got to beat 188,000 people so if a guy didnt have a good first half you’re prob screwed already haha

  • Trappist1

    @mtdurham said...

    great site, im still devouring it… if anyone has anything remotely similar to this id love to see it..

    im starting to realize im at abig disadvantage to the guys who have been playing this a few years lol

    This is a gem too, all the series that he does on lineup-building strategies are worth watching and taking notes. Wish there was more content like this than just touting picks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z54FDK4Z2TM&t=15s

  • mtdurham

    @Trappist1 said...

    This is a gem too, all the series that he does on lineup-building strategies are worth watching and taking notes. Wish there was more content like this than just touting picks. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z54FDK4Z2TM&t=15s

    Little lesson… almost no one really wants to learn how to be great at things in life they just dont want to put themselves out there and suck….. people at their core love to be right/wrong in crowds and hate to be right/wrong in solitude. Because the fear of being wrong by themselves will always be greater than the fear of being right in a crowd and not being properly compensated for the accuracy of their selection

  • Trappist1

    Very true, it is rare you will see or meet people that do not mind being right/wrong in solitude. Following the herd is an easy way out. Personally prefer to be right or wrong by myself, I can live with it.

  • Njsum1

    Go heavy on cheap value RBs. For example…starter A gets hurt. Backup B is going to be the feature back the next game in an offense that passes to the the RB a bunch. He’s also going against a mid range to weak defense. Backup B is also min priced or close to it. Try and be above the field when you see this situation.

  • econbrah11

    @Njsum1 said...

    against a mid range to weak defense. Backup B is also min priced or close to it. Try and be above the field when you see this situation.

    If that’s the case then that said player is going to be way over owned for his talent. IMO that’s a weak strategy, because there’s a reason why he is a backup, meaning that he’s not good enough to be a starter.

    It’s best is to chase both talent and opportunity, not just opportunity because a backup will play more.

  • Njsum1

    @econbrah11 said...

    If that’s the case then that said player is going to be way over owned for his talent. IMO that’s a weak strategy, because there’s a reason why he is a backup, meaning that he’s not good enough to be a starter.

    It’s best is to chase both talent and opportunity, not just opportunity because a backup will play more.

    He may just be a backup, not because the starter is that much better. Often times the backup is equally as good or close enough. Maybe the starter has more exeprience, the coach feels loyal to the starter, etc, etc, ad nauseum, which is why he is the starter, not because the backup is devoid of talent. Also, the keys to my post was min priced, against a weak defense, and in an offense that passes to the RB. Keep in mind, it’s a salary cap game, so if the starter was 8k, and the backup is 3k, and you can realistically expect at least half the production, it’s a strong play.

    I wasn’t just saying plug and play any backup in any situation. And….my strategies are rarely weak 😎

  • CleverGroom

    @econbrah11 said...

    If that’s the case then that said player is going to be way over owned for his talent. IMO that’s a weak strategy, because there’s a reason why he is a backup, meaning that he’s not good enough to be a starter.

    It’s best is to chase both talent and opportunity, not just opportunity because a backup will play more.

    At RB, opportunity is king. I agree with Njsum1 that when a free square presents itself, it’s almost always the correct play to match the field or go overweight.

    More generally, fade talent at RB. Roster opportunities.

    ETA

    Note that this applies to RBBCs on a daily basis, injuries or no. Kerryon Johnson may be far and away the most talented and versatile back DET has, but you won’t be able to pay a premium to roster him because he’s in a RBBC. Don’t get seduced by talent when the workload isn’t there.

  • escot4

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    @CleverGroom said...

    At RB, opportunity is king. I agree with Njsum1 that when a free square presents itself, it’s almost always the correct play to match the field or go overweight.

    More generally, fade talent at RB. Roster opportunities.

    I agree with this, and would like to add one more thing. Something that falls into the “opportunity” category is how good the offense is that’s around him. For example, if we find out that Jonathan Williams will be splitting carries almost evenly with Kamara, you HAVE to consider Williams. That offense is going to move the ball and score TDs, and he would have multi-TD upside. However, a player in that same role but on the Jets would have much less upside because the team as a whole might just not be able to score.

  • CleverGroom

    @escot4 said...

    However, a player in that same role but on the Jets would have much less upside because the team as a whole might just not be able to score.

    Or, say, the Bills.

  • mtdurham

    @escot4 said...

    I agree with this, and would like to add one more thing. Something that falls into the “opportunity” category is how good the offense is that’s around him. For example, if we find out that Jonathan Williams will be splitting carries almost evenly with Kamara, you HAVE to consider Williams. That offense is going to move the ball and score TDs, and he would have multi-TD upside. However, a player in that same role but on the Jets would have much less upside because the team as a whole might just not be able to score.

    yeah that makes a lot of sense for sure…. sometimes a lesser talented player is along for the ride for sure esp in a scoring system where touchdowns are paramount….

    similar to MLB where you want a guy hitting in a high octane offense for more run/rbi/AB opportunity…. a team that is going 3 & out frequently, or starting with worthless field position every possesion is a problem…

    2 years ago I remmebr Cam had like 50 TD but it wasn’t because of our offense. It was b/c we had the best avg starting field position in the league…

    So does it make sense to pair defense with QB/RB at times? Or are you too concerned of the shootout potential affecting the defense negatively?? I would htink the sacks/turnovers/3 & outs would lead to TD opportunity…esp since points allowed appears to be such a minor factor in defensive scoring (i mean seriously who holds anyone to under 14 pts anymore? The 2000 Ray Lewis – Baltimore Ravens? The early 90’s -46 Buddy Ryan Eagles? The ’86 Lawrence Taylor Giants? The 70’s Purple People Eaters?!)

  • CleverGroom

    @mtdurham said...

    So does it make sense to pair defense with QB/RB at times? Or are you too concerned of the shootout potential affecting the defense negatively?? I would htink the sacks/turnovers/3 & outs would lead to TD opportunity…esp since points allowed appears to be such a minor factor in defensive scoring (i mean seriously who holds anyone to under 14 pts anymore? The 2000 Ray Lewis – Baltimore Ravens? The early 90’s -46 Buddy Ryan Eagles? The ’86 Lawrence Taylor Giants? The 70’s Purple People Eaters?!)

    QB, RB (any), and DST on the same team are all positively correlated. If I recall correctly, the strongest correlation is actually between QB and RB2, since RB2 is often a satellite back who’s doing damage in the passing game (think Tevin Coleman, Theo Riddick, James White).

    Don’t worry about points scored with DST. What you want are pressures, which leads to sacks and turnovers. Usually leads to fewer points scored on your DST as well.

    It’s easy to see how all of these factors work together. A QB throws well and sets his team up early, maybe gets a couple early passing TDs. Now the RB begins to grind out the clock, and the QB exploits softer coverages. Any RZ trips will start ending with carries instead of being backed into throwing every play because of the clock. The defense pins its ears back and beats the opponent up. Everybody’s success compounds the team’s advantage.

    Sometimes this even allows you to use an onslaught build, with 4-5 players from the same team. GB at WAS 2016, Cousins, Kelly, Crowder, and Garcon all had 22+ DKFP. The 1st and 2nd place entries in the Milly both had a Cousins/Kelley/Crowder stack, and the 1st-place entry added Reed too.

  • KindGuy

    @CleverGroom said...

    Sometimes this even allows you to use an onslaught build, with 4-5 players from the same team. GB at WAS 2016, Cousins, Kelly, Crowder, and Garcon all had 22+ DKFP. The 1st and 2nd place entries in the Milly both had a Cousins/Kelley/Crowder stack, and the 1st-place entry added Reed too.

    .

  • mtdurham

    Curious about tempo of games…. what do the numbers suggest in terms of slow teams dragging down the plays or fast teams raising the number of plays?

    Do large underdogs try to slow the game down? Do large favorites try to accelerate to increase their advantage? Or do the large faves jump out to big enough leads that it all gets neutralized as they try to roll clock….?

  • escot4

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    @CleverGroom said...

    GB at WAS 2016, Cousins, Kelly, Crowder, and Garcon all had 22+ DKFP. The 1st and 2nd place entries in the Milly both had a Cousins/Kelley/Crowder stack, and the 1st-place entry added Reed too.

    I’m still haunted by that game. I had lineups in 1st, 3rd, and 4th place in the Wildcat that week heading into SNF. I checked back during the 3rd quarter and the game was like 16-10 and my lineups were still looking good… still 1st, 3rd, and 4th… was over $300k in the positive for the day at that point…then the game becomes a mega-shootout with like 6 or 7 total TDs in about a quarter of play. My best lineup in the Wildcat didn’t even stay in the top 20 and I didn’t even profit on the day.

  • escot4

    • x2

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    @mtdurham said...

    Curious about tempo of games…. what do the numbers suggest in terms of slow teams dragging down the plays or fast teams raising the number of plays?

    Do large underdogs try to slow the game down? Do large favorites try to accelerate to increase their advantage? Or do the large faves jump out to big enough leads that it all gets neutralized as they try to roll clock….?

    The short answer is: it depends a lot on the coach.

  • KindGuy

    @escot4 said...

    I’m still haunted by that game. I had lineups in 1st, 3rd, and 4th place in the Wildcat that week heading into SNF. I checked back during the 3rd quarter and the game was like 16-10 and my lineups were still looking good… still 1st, 3rd, and 4th… was over $300k in the positive for the day at that point…then the game becomes a mega-shootout with like 6 or 7 total TDs in about a quarter of play. My best lineup in the Wildcat didn’t even stay in the top 20 and I didn’t even profit on the day.

    This is why Sunday Night Football needs to be added back to the main slates on DK!!!!

  • emnj69

    play studs in tough matchups-they will be low owned and most true studs on offense can still get the job done in bad match ups

  • ocdobv

    • 538

      RG Overall Ranking

    @CleverGroom said...

    Vegas is not interested in being accurate. Vegas is interested in making money. They do that not by gambling like the rest of us, but by splitting their liability equally between both outcomes and pocketing the transaction fees. Vegas is only wrong when a -7 favorite loses if they’re caught paying out more to the underdog bettors than they kept from the sheeple who bet the favorite.

    This is not true. They take positions all the time.

  • Dunzor

    @elementasrat said...

    This is why Sunday Night Football needs to be added back to the main slates on DK!!!!

    I agree it should come back, but isn’t his story an argument against it returning

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    No it shouldn’t come back and yes his story IS an argument against it returning

  • Smallchimp

    @elementasrat said...

    This is why Sunday Night Football needs to be added back to the main slates on DK!!!!

    Nope nope nope, sitting through 4PM games where teams have 4/9 players left to go and I have 1 or 2/9 left isn’t fun at all, worrying from 1PM to 11ish would be that much worse haha

  • escot4

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    Sorry, didn’t mean to hijack with that little anecdote. Let’s get back on topic. Any more strategy questions?

  • mtdurham

    @escot4 said...

    I’m still haunted by that game. I had lineups in 1st, 3rd, and 4th place in the Wildcat that week heading into SNF. I checked back during the 3rd quarter and the game was like 16-10 and my lineups were still looking good… still 1st, 3rd, and 4th… was over $300k in the positive for the day at that point…then the game becomes a mega-shootout with like 6 or 7 total TDs in about a quarter of play. My best lineup in the Wildcat didn’t even stay in the top 20 and I didn’t even profit on the day.

    man.. that is brutal lol

  • mtdurham

    @escot4 said...

    Sorry, didn’t mean to hijack with that little anecdote. Let’s get back on topic. Any more strategy questions?

    Is there somewhere that summarizes coaches tendencies, base offense, base defense, etc…

    I used to know a LOT about football but i moved ot the beach 5 years ago and Sundays became party or recovery days… i dont have a good feel for the current crop of coordinators/players

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