MLB FORUM

  • yanks237

    This MLB season I am challenging myself use game theory in tournaments. So each day I create a tournament team on FantasyAces, even if I don’t have much time for research. I’ll eat the 2.75 to learn a lesson on ownership and how the field is attacking a slate.

    Alsmizzle this week was talking about fading a player where if they are going to be 50% owned and they would perform well in that situation only 40% then you should fade. (Listen to the game theory podcast from this week, it’s the best hour of DFS material you can find anywhere.) So tonight is a 7 game slate with not many pitching options. The three would be Scherzer Miller and Cueto. I figured Scherzer and Miller to be the highest owned and Scherzer was 76% and Miller over 50. I faded both and went with Nola and Kazmir.
    Is this an instance of being contrarian and stupid? I am not worried about my picks, as Nola is getting blown up as we speak, but more so the thought process.

    Let me know what you guys think I appreciate any advice!

  • MikeSos760

    @yanks237 said...

    This MLB season I am challenging myself use game theory in tournaments. So each day I create a tournament team on FantasyAces, even if I don’t have much time for research. I’ll eat the 2.75 to learn a lesson on ownership and how the field is attacking a slate.

    Alsmizzle this week was talking about fading a player where if they are going to be 50% owned and they would perform well in that situation only 40% then you should fade. (Listen to the game theory podcast from this week, it’s the best hour of DFS material you can find anywhere.) So tonight is a 7 game slate with not many pitching options. The three would be Scherzer Miller and Cueto. I figured Scherzer and Miller to be the highest owned and Scherzer was 76% and Miller over 50. I faded both and went with Nola and Kazmir.
    Is this an instance of being contrarian and stupid? I am not worried about my picks, as Nola is getting blown up as we speak, but more so the thought process.

    Let me know what you guys think I appreciate any advice!

    In this case though, I’d expect scherzer to perform well over 40% of the time against the Phillies so I don’t know if that is a good fade for the rationale you describe.

  • flip4flop

    against the Phillies I would never fade on this slate. He is by far the best option on the board tonight (and I am a die hard Phillies fan) I went Scherzer/Miller and tried to take a lower owned stack to be different

  • mannmicj

    @yanks237 said...

    Is this an instance of being contrarian and stupid? I am not worried about my picks, as Nola is getting blown up as we speak, but more so the thought process.

    I wouldn’t call it stupid, but it certainly wasn’t wise. Part of the reason is that Aces has very small GPPs and you don’t need to get crazy to be contrarian. With such an awful pitching slate, I normally lock in my two favorites regardless of ownership and try to go contrarian elsewhere. Today I went with a mini-stack of Braves. They are dirt cheap and it allowed me to get in the big bats with Scherzer.

  • fizzle13

    So along those lines the decision is if Scherzer outperforms his salary >76% of the time in that situation, he should be rostered, right? I would say yes. The goal in a GPP is to score the highest possible score, right? So considering the rest of the SP’s going, could you have the highest score of the night and still fade Max? I’m not so sure.

  • deactivated84892

    @fizzle13 said...

    So along those lines the decision is if Scherzer outperforms his salary >76% of the time in that situation, he should be rostered, right?

    What would you consider outperforming salary in baseball?

    I looked at this slate and decided the only 2 pitchers I would give a shot were Scherzer and Miller. With scoring/variance as fickle as it is in baseball, I tend throw value out the window and just play matchups so I’m definitely interested in hearing others value system.

  • yanks237

    These are all great points but I think part of the argument I didn’t put forward is roster construction as well. With the 1.6k plus I saved by fading Scherzer I have that much more for position players. And with such a crappy pitching slate this allows almost 2 upgrades from a good player good matchup to great player good matchup due to the salary relief.

    Also I don’t believe the fade is saying Scherzer wont score even 10 points. I think that’s the wrong way to think about fading. But what if he puts up only 18-20, which is still a decent night for him. And my replacement pitcher gets me 12. Well then based on my previous comments on salary relief if both those players score 3-4 more points then the lower level player I successfully hit the fade.

    Note: I’m not looking to turn this into an argument. Simply having a conversation and trying to understand different methods and strategies.

  • yanks237

    Who knows maybe the play was to use Scherzer and stack against Miller who was 46% owned. Right there if the stack is good you pass 46 percent of the field and probably more as people recognize Miller as a good play and may not roster him but won’t pick bats against him

  • fizzle13

    Value in MLB to me really only applies to SP. Only because it is more predictable. Everybody knows that the stud hitters can go o’fer on any given night. I really only play on DK, so for SP I’m looking for roughly 3x out of lower priced guys and 2.5x from the studs. I felt like Max would go for 32+ more than 60-70% of the time in tonight’s matchup, where I figured his ownership would be.

  • mannmicj

    @yanks237 said...

    Well then based on my previous comments on salary relief if both those players score 3-4 more points then the lower level player I successfully hit the fade.

    Pitching is more predictable and an on a slate with 1 ELITE pitcher going against one of the worst teams in MLB, it’s just not something I would do in a small GPP. It’s damn near impossible on a two pitcher site. There are always cheap hitters in good spots. Like I said, use a Braves mini-stack it opened up a ton of salary relief instead of fading Max.

  • yanks237

    @mannmicj said...

    Pitching is more predictable and an on a slate with 1 ELITE pitcher going against one of the worst teams in MLB, it’s just not something I would do in a small GPP. It’s damn near impossible on a two pitcher site. There are always cheap hitters in good spots. Like I said, use a Braves mini-stack it opened up a ton of salary relief instead of fading Max.

    Great point here. A batter being owned 76% would then be a completely different situation, which is also probably why we rarely see that ownership.

  • bosoxfan0509

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    If anyone from Aces reads this… is there ever going to be an Aces app? It’s the only thing keeping me from going back to Aces right now.

  • VChair23

    The show with Smizzle was really good. I think this was a poor night to use that reasoning because of the makeup of the P position that night. But anyway I think the strategy is more applicable to hitters regularly and pitching when you have a group of pitchers expected to perform similarly but large differences in expected ownership. A for instance would be if there are 4 aces pitching and 2 of the 4 project at 40%, the other 2 at 10% but they carry the same upside. And on Aces I think the strategy is even better because so many fall into the line of thinking that the GPP’s are small so it’s not necessary to fade whomever the chalk is. On a side note you should read Bales’ books if you haven’t and are interested in game theory.

  • yanks237

    Yes have read a few of Bales books now and thanks for the advice. Looking back I think the move was to take the points from Scherzer and look elsewhere to go contrarian. Specifically with the second pitcher, pivoting off Miller who was ~47% owned would have been a great start in going contrarian, right there you pass half the field.

  • troveur

    Yeah I wouldn’t have messed with removing Scherzer that night, but the 2nd SP instead. Cashner as a small favorite @ home with his decent K upside was the best counter play in that same game as Miller if you thought Shelby would be so heavily owned.

  • evil333

    @bosoxfan0509 said...

    If anyone from Aces reads this… is there ever going to be an Aces app? It’s the only thing keeping me from going back to Aces right now.

    Rigt on! Is there an app in the works? It is what keeps me from really getting into aces…m since moving from dk…only can play fd for now and very limited aces when have time in front of comp. ..

  • Galante118

    • Blogger of the Month

    Yea, I believe they said it was in the works and should be ready vaguely soon…

  • JackLotte

    @bosoxfan0509 said...

    If anyone from Aces reads this… is there ever going to be an Aces app? It’s the only thing keeping me from going back to Aces right now.

    an aces rep told me 1-2 weeks about a week ago so i would think by the end of the week/month at the latest (hopefully)

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).