MLB FORUM

Comments

  • mwek

    As I learn MLB DFS I’m getting more and more in to batted ball profiles and how to leverage them. I have a couple question for anyone who’s kind enough to answer:

    Where is a good place to find data on what type of pitcher (ground ball/fly ball) a certain batter succeeds more often against?

    Finally, are there any ways you translate this into a winning lineup beyond the obvious (i.e.: using a fly ball hitter in a hitter-friendly park)?

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    one way to test one’s theories about the correlation or usefulness of some of this category of stats is to either build a model and back test with previous years data, (and to have running through the rest of this season, but hopefully the backtest gives you an idea if you can use it or not in the second half of the season). or the ideas could be tested through game simulations, or both. my own research leads me, and this is just my opinion based on what i’ve worked on, that much of this data can help in finding increased probabilities for for certain AB outcomes. depending on how one approaches DFS (and i’m not making a value statement about different ways to approach the game) i guess, this could be very helpful, or could be a waste of time, as working with the data is time consuming because there is sooo much of it to sort through to find and construct what you need, a lot of this is brand new so you have to pull and put it all together yourself.

    @Mtr86, I get what you are saying, and to a degree its true, but i think its also true, or at least i hear it a lot during broadcasts and in interviews with pitchers and pitching coaches etc, that they don’t like to alter the pitcher’s arsenal or game plan, but if they feel their pitcher’s weapons are the 4 seam FB, slider, curve and change up, they will use them, with the goal of ‘dictating the game’ or ‘going after the hitter’. certainly there are exceptions for the true monsters, but on the other hand, how many times have we seen stanton or cespedes get a fastball, or whatever pitch, and they dong it?

    in general, i also think data like HH% and FB%, Exit Velocity, DST, and other BBE stats are most effective for creating batter forecasts when you look at recent performance, say L 15 days, as opposed to what their season HH% avg.or season avg EV is. The season avg doesn’t really help a daily forecast, but tracking how this data trends over a recent period, i believe, is very helpful when forecasting a batter’s probabilities for that slate. Unlike arbitrary L7 or L15 things like “hot” or “cold streaks” this data actually describes a batter’s form at the plate and how it is changing for the better or the worse day after day…when that change reaches certain threshold, certain outcomes become much more likely, or at least this is what seems to be happening based on the data since it started being collected. If several years is enough of a sample size to trust this, i have no idea, but it seems to work now.

    and to add to @bennyramierez great question in the post above, what should be weighed more in a situation where you have a SP with a really low HH% against going against a batter with a really high hard (HH) contact rate?

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @divusjulius said...

    @Mtr86, I get what you are saying, and to a degree its true, but i think its also true, or at least i hear it a lot during broadcasts and in interviews with pitchers and pitching coaches etc, that they don’t like to alter the pitcher’s arsenal or game plan, but if they feel their pitcher’s weapons are the 4 seam FB, slider, curve and change up, they will use them, with the goal of ‘dictating the game’ or ‘going after the hitter’. certainly there are exceptions for the true monsters, but on the other hand, how many times have we seen stanton or cespedes get a fastball, or whatever pitch, and they dong it?

    Syndergaard is gonna use his fastball, Kershaw is gonna use his curveball and so on no matter who they’re facing, but it’s probably a losing proposition using batters against the best pitchers no matter what they hit. Your average 3rd or 4th starter might more consider staying out of a hitter’s wheelhouse when he’s smart enough to know a hitters strength > his strength. Maybe young pitchers are more prone than veteran’s to challenge, but it seems to me that most times then, you’re going either against a pitcher who throws the best 10-20% of those pitches or a pitcher who’s going to avoid your strength. It would just appear to be very few situations where a mediocre pitcher is going to challenge a pitcher with a pitch he crushes unless he gets into a really bad situation where he doesn’t trust anything else.

    So a guy has a .350 ISO vs sliders. Who’s throwing him those sliders and how likely are they to throw him those sliders. If you can correctly figure this out, you might be in an advantageous situation, but again, we’re talking about time consumption and something you might have to figure out more individualistically for very few spots where it might occur.

    Edit: I agree with the paragraph following the one quoted too, but think some analysis puts way to too much weight on it and overall numbers still have some relevance there too.

    Example: Early in the season a certain pitcher’s velocity is down over two miles per hour. Then a month later, you see his velocity is up 0.5 mph and think it’s great if you don’t realize he’s still down from previous numbers because pitchers that are up a half a mile per hour have great historical performances on average compared to those who aren’t throwing harder over their last few starts. Same goes for batted ball distance. Long term previous performance still informs in these situations.

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    thanks for the reply and i agree with all that in general…and yes, you are right, the L7 or L15 change is meaningless without comparison to season or historical profile, after all, one might get all excited to see a pitcher’s HH allowed has ‘risen’ to 35% only because they haven’t noticed that that pitcher’s season/career HH is 30%, and (or) that this pitcher has had no problem being successful with that 30-35 HH% (there are several aces like this!) I guess it might be best to say is that to really be useful it needs to be examined on a pitcher by pitcher basis, which is a lot of time for those of us who don’t know how to automate a process for this (/raises hand). but otoh, if the data helps as much as i feel it does, i think its worth the investment.

    the time investment might be more worthwhile in GPP’s than cash games, as HR’s are so important there…

    this is a great thread, i hope it keeps going…it’s certainly given me some more ideas for other entries in my GPP blog series , which has looked into these kinds of questions in an introductory sort of way

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).