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  • stonejack26

    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2015/09/14/why-i-am-quitting-daily-fantasy-baseball/

    “These limits seem almost laughably nonrestrictive until you understand how top players operate. Analysis from Rotogrinders conducted for Bloomberg shows that the top 100 ranked players enter 330 winning lineups per day, and the top 10 players combine to win an average of 873 times daily. The remaining field of approximately 20,000 players tracked by Rotogrinders wins just 13 times per day, on average.”

    Interesting to say the least. What say you?

  • crowntheirasses

    If multi-entry isn’t for you, just play single entry only.

  • noddy

    Make better lineups?

  • jkallas7

    deleted

  • hendry

    so high volume players have more wins. got it.

  • TuscaloosaJohnny

    Yeah, not much surprising here. The players holding the most lottery tickets win the most lotteries. (I know, bad analogy, but it’s not that far off.)

    Sure, high-volume pro players win the vast majority of the money, but guess what? They also must lose the vast majority of the money, just due to the sheer number of entries.

  • Olhausen

    Bye Felicia!

  • CrazyGabey

    @Olhausen said...

    Bye Felicia!

    Winner

  • stonejack26

    @CrazyGabey said...

    Winner

    Lol. Haha. Nice.

  • deleted1017

    You have the right to not enter a game. I don’t get the point of all of these “I’m not playing anymore, I’ll show them!”

    I don’t play DK baseball anymore because of stacking. I don’t complain about it, I just choose not to play and instead play Fanduel.

    You have choices.

  • Olhausen

    @CrazyGabey said...

    Winner

    Thanks crazy gabey!

  • madmanjayWV

    @jkallas7 said...

    This article should be titled I’m quitting DFS Baseball because I am not good at it but other people are.

    Exactly; there are limits (supposed to be for FD at least), I thought. He said otherwise…

    Wrong IMO “However, the sharks in DFS baseball can play in every single game, or even multiple lineups in each game.”

  • SkateFiend

    Snake drafts (one pitcher or no pitcher, 4,5 bench spots) could remedy this situation. It can’t work for large tournaments, but it will require some real skills and decision making. If I had first pick and chose Josh Donaldson, I might have to settle for someone like CJ Cron or Justin Bour as my first baseman. It’ll be fun.

  • kiteman

    Some of you are totally missing the point of that article. Someone who enters 400 lineups will and does have better odds to win more money than someone who enters 1 lineup. There is no mathematical shock in this. The second thing it says is that someone who does 400 lineups is OK with spending $8,000 if it can return $2m. Many of us are only willing to spend $20 on 1 lineup and hope it returns $2m.

    Many of the pros of this sport MAY in fact be better than most or all of the amateurs, but their simple willingness to put far more money on the line day in and day out does in fact improve their chances of winning money. The poker reference is valid. If you take 3 spots on a 10 person table, your chances of making money go way up compared to sitting in only 1 spot. If this logic is difficult to understand, just take the human element out of the equation and look at something like the lottery. You have two groups: 1 group of 400 different tickets, and 1 group of 1 different ticket. Now put the human element back in. Which group would you think has the better chance of containing the winning ticket?

  • SkateFiend

    @kiteman said...

    Some of you are totally missing the point of that article. Someone who enters 400 lineups will and does have better odds to win more money than someone who enters 1 lineup. There is no mathematical shock in this. The second thing it says is that someone who does 400 lineups is OK with spending $8,000 if it can return $2m. Many of us are only willing to spend $20 on 1 lineup and hope it returns $2m.

    Many of the pros of this sport MAY in fact be better than most or all of the amateurs, but their simple willingness to put far more money on the line day in and day out does in fact improve their chances of winning money. The poker reference is valid. If you take 3 spots on a 10 person table, your chances of making money go way up compared to sitting in only 1 spot. If this logic is difficult to understand, just take the human element out of the equation and look at something like the lottery. You have two groups: 1 group of 400 different tickets, and 1 group of 1 different ticket. Now put the human element back in. Which group would you think has the better chance of containing the winning ticket?

    I agree, but apparently big DFS sites make a lot of money on pro players.

    I used to float 15 lineups in a big tournament and barely made any money. Tournaments that size are essentially a lottery, and I couldn’t win top prize under normal circumstances. But against players with computer programs that can manage hundreds of lineups, the odds would be even more against me.

    Now I play almost exclusively 50/50, double ups and (sometimes) pick’em, so the “sharks” don’t scare me as much. I play DFS to pay my credit card bill (lol). If I turn 2 bucks of profit a day, I’ll earn 56 bucks a month. That’s something.

    DFS could be a nice opportunity for out of work / underemployed Americans to earn some cash on the side. If you’re already a fan of a sport or play season long fantasy, why not use your knowledge to earn some cash? Everything is already provided for you. If a normal player could earn even a hundred dollars once in a while, DFS will really take off.

    Guaranteed big tournaments should limited to 10-25 entries. Yahoo DFS does this, and obviously not many people play there, but it seems more fair to me. I occasionally snuck into top 40 percent.

  • TeamTwerk

    @kiteman said...

    Some of you are totally missing the point of that article. Someone who enters 400 lineups will and does have better odds to win more money than someone who enters 1 lineup. There is no mathematical shock in this. The second thing it says is that someone who does 400 lineups is OK with spending $8,000 if it can return $2m. Many of us are only willing to spend $20 on 1 lineup and hope it returns $2m.

    Many of the pros of this sport MAY in fact be better than most or all of the amateurs, but their simple willingness to put far more money on the line day in and day out does in fact improve their chances of winning money. The poker reference is valid. If you take 3 spots on a 10 person table, your chances of making money go way up compared to sitting in only 1 spot. If this logic is difficult to understand, just take the human element out of the equation and look at something like the lottery. You have two groups: 1 group of 400 different tickets, and 1 group of 1 different ticket. Now put the human element back in. Which group would you think has the better chance of containing the winning ticket?

    I Pretty much completely disagree with your point. I think if a good player entered 1 contest every day for 400 days he could expect to make more than if he entered 400 entries into that same contest one time. The advantage doesn’t come from having a large group of entries. The advantage comes from being skilled at predicting sporting outcomes. These players might be so much better than the field that their 400th best lineup is better than the average or below average player’s 1st lineup.

    I do agree that something should be done to keep the sharks from entering every single contest, particularly low buy in contests.

  • xandamere

    Be clear on the language of “winning more money” with more lineups, because “winning” is not the same as “profiting.” If I enter 1 time and you enter 400 times, you will almost definitely end the tournament with more money being paid out to you than I will. But, with my one lineup I could double my money, whereas you could “win” thousands and be unprofitable.

    More entries get you more exposure. You put more at risk and can potentially win more. But, you also have to be good at DFS to win consistently over time.

  • yeahthisiscuddy

    @TeamTwerk said...

    These players might be so much better than the field that their 400th best lineup is better than the average or below average player’s 1st lineup.

    I feel you lack a basic understanding about how variance works. Sometimes a horrible struggling offense hangs a big score on a good pitcher. See Miami or Oakland tonight. Now perhaps you have a particular skill in predicting the precise instance where the 100 to 1 shot comes through, but I doubt it. The guy with 400 entries in the same contest is much more likely to finish higher than the guy with 1 entry.

  • TeamTwerk

    @yeahthisiscuddy said...

    I feel you lack a basic understanding about how variance works. Sometimes a horrible struggling offense hangs a big score on a good pitcher. See Miami or Oakland tonight. Now perhaps you have a particular skill in predicting the precise instance where the 100 to 1 shot comes through, but I doubt it. The guy with 400 entries in the same contest is much more likely to finish higher than the guy with 1 entry.

    I was talking about the overall expected value of entering a single lineup everyday for 400 days versus entering 400 lineups in 1 contest. I wasn’t talking about variance.

    You may be right that having more lineups in one contest results in less variance. I don’t know though because you can just as easily have a long shot as your single bullet entry for the day if you think the players may be too low owned or you see something that makes it a good play.

  • yeahthisiscuddy

    @TeamTwerk said...

    their 400th best lineup is better than the average

    I’m saying you won’t know which of your 400 lineups is the best or worst until the contest is over. The variance in outcomes over a single slate or game of baseball is too high. The variance in those outcomes combined with top-heavy payout structures make it so the advantage goes to the multi-entry player.

  • tclii85

  • hendry

    @kiteman said...

    Someone who enters 400 lineups will and does have better odds to win more money than someone who enters 1 lineup.

    wrong. all entries have the same odds.

  • tclii85

    @hendry said...

    wrong. all entries have the same odds.

    .

  • yeahthisiscuddy

    @hendry said...

    wrong. all entries have the same odds.

    All entries have the same odds. Players have different odds depending on the number and quality of their entries.

  • deejones49

    I quit once and it was the worst 15 minutes of my life.

  • hendry

    yea true. if you enter enough lineups you’ll definitely win!!

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