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  • stonejack26

    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2015/09/14/why-i-am-quitting-daily-fantasy-baseball/

    “These limits seem almost laughably nonrestrictive until you understand how top players operate. Analysis from Rotogrinders conducted for Bloomberg shows that the top 100 ranked players enter 330 winning lineups per day, and the top 10 players combine to win an average of 873 times daily. The remaining field of approximately 20,000 players tracked by Rotogrinders wins just 13 times per day, on average.”

    Interesting to say the least. What say you?

  • gridironguru99

    • 864

      RG Overall Ranking

    I had a great run in NHL last year and love MLB but wow this year has been brutal for me. Im almost out of my BR and have adjusted a lot. I just cant compete w/ the high entry guys – they cover every scenario where my one entry needs to be almost perfect to cash. Getting 120, 130 or 140 and not cashing i GPPs made me crazy. To those that say try 50/50s those same sharks play the $10 and $20 GPPs./

    Good for them…they are feasting and I would too if I had that sort of BR. I have found NHL to be the best bc its a sport the casual fan hasnt taken on that much. Will try another site like Sportsline the last few weeks for MLB to see if theres a difference. My gut says daily MLB is a loss for 90% of players and 5-10% dominate…maybe less.

  • toxx6878

    “custom-built predictive models” this is what I need lol

  • toxx6878

    My thing is if you can’t multi enter you shouldn’t play multi entry. Leave the sharks to feed on each other. I play cash 90% of my daily roll and enter the single and the ace for my gpp’s. Both single entry tournaments. The problem is that the sites promote huge money prizes that are unattainable for a new player. People come in with a dream of winning a million dollars and it will never happen. You don’t just watch a commercial, make a deposit, and beat Max lol. Doesn’t even sound realistic. But if the commercial said “come play double ups and turn 25$ to 50$” the influx of new players would be drastically reduced thus less newbies/fish. So what we know is that the sites butter their bread by catering to the high volume player. They couldn’t care less about the casual 10$ a day player. And the sharks go elsewhere if there’s not enough fish for them to dominate. See where I’m going? The sites and the sharks work together (unintentionally) to lure in fish with pipe dreams of 7 figures so they can all profit. The sharks need fish, the sites create commercials that feed the sharks fish. Everybody’s happy except the guy who’s 500$ in the red before he figures out that he isn’t going to win a million and starts trying to recoup through cash games.

  • TeamTwerk

    The huge field tournaments are probably the best bet for casual and new players imo. If you’re puttung together goofy and highly contrarian lineups it would almost certainly fare better in a huge 10k+ field than in a 50/50 or small field single entry tourney. If one of the players that none of the pros are really picking hits you’ve just jumped all those multi entered lineups that you say make up such a huge part of the field.

  • Olhausen

    @TeamTwerk said...

    The huge field tournaments are probably the best bet for casual and new players imo. If you’re puttung together goofy and highly contrarian lineups it would almost certainly fare better in a huge 10k+ field than in a 50/50 or small field single entry tourney. If one of the players that none of the pros are really picking hits you’ve just jumped all those multi entered lineups that you say make up such a huge part of the field.

    This. I took 1st on my 2nd day ever playing Dfs in the solo shot with not one player from the same team. I know baseball and I had the most contrarian lineup ever. It was also the first week of the season so that helped. Still I learned fast it was not going to be easy money like I thought it would be.

  • TuscaloosaJohnny

    @nawmsayin said...

    The most ironic thing about this blog post was he used Johnny Chan as his example for a poker equivalent.

    Shows the power of “Rounders,” doesn’t it? Johnny “F——” Chan rarely plays tournaments anymore and he’s still the first player many people recall.

  • cedric19

    I could say the same thing many people said to me when I posted about identical paid for lineup trains in single entry 50/50s…“MAKE A BETTER LINEUP

    I’m not going to say that though

  • haclark

    The winners are the people that handles the data thats coming in..This business should be ran like a state lottery …No employees or family menbers should play. Remember State Governments are watching the money. State of Washington it is a Felony…. To win a..get your core players two to three… and Wheel your ten or eleven value players in every sequence available thus you have 400 lineups with high probability of winning…..

  • UFantasyDude

    I see both sides….sure play single entry games only if preferred. And I absolutely do agree posts and statements like this sound like sour grapes or “taking the ball and going home.”

    That said, it’s a very, very common opinion. And whether fair or not, the fact is these articles like at Bloomberg are gaining traction every day.

    Last week on The Talented Mr. Roto on ESPN. Which I have read for years….I read no columns for advice, strictly entertainment and I might see a nugget or two in there I can apply to my picks. But Matthew Berry is a very good writer, and as humorous as they come. Which is why I read….

    In week 1, he gave a large amount of advice to DFS players. The backlash he faced from his regular readers was incredible! He received death threats, and all kind of horrible, venomous comments from long time roto players for him including DFS.

    The overwhelming opinions, were that DFS is a scam, it’s collusion between sites and the top 1% of players due to multi-lineup entries and scripts. And that for new players, you stand o% chance and will simply donate your money and then leave angry, never to return. That Bloomberg article must have been linked a dozen times in the comments.

    So whether it’s whiny, or they should “make better lineups,” or whatever…it’s a problem. I love DFS, and will be here for the long haul, but if 25K new players come each week, and 20K turn and leave because they lose and quickly have a builit in excuse to blame the setup and not think they need to improve their research or picks. It will continue to slow and possibly kill the growth potential of DFS. If that Bloomberg article and others like it, had never come out and scripts and unlimited entry games were a rarity or not allowed at all….we’d see triple the current number of regular players playing DFS on a daily or semi-daily basis.

    And not to sound like a jerk, but in my years, I’ve come to realize about 75% of people on earth are just this side of moronic. So the more people playing, the better for all of us. Those who use multi-lineups and scripts will benefit from a larger pool of people who play….but don’t have any built in excuse to drive them away when they lose.

    It’s short-sighted of both players and sites to believe that these things are necessary to win and that while they are helping their bank account now, long run, the potential won’t be limited. In a few years we may see a Billionaire Maker contest emerge…but not if something isn’t done to curb the steady flow of new players who come, blow through a $10 deposit, have their negative expecations reinforced, and never come back. Plus, they yell at anyone who will listen about how it’s shady and can’t believe the government allows DFS sites to operate, and soon, they’ll see the truth and DFS will be shut down.

    If you guys saw the number of people saying DFS odds and skill, were no different than that of a person playing a parlay bet…you’d maybe view this different. In my opinion, we Grinders who are committed and here to stay, should see this as a long game, with a gigantic payoff for a massive amount of us at the end. But if we don’t change our attitude and start to demand something be done, or at least stop defending these practices….then we may be at our peak, or not far from it. Which would be sad as DFS is so fun, and for us here now, we’ve got a huge wasted opportunity ahead that could end up totally wasted.

  • peachfuzz

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tclii85 said...

    This is disingenuous. In a vaccum yes.

    This.

    In reality, all entries do NOT have the same odds. Not whatsoever. However, most of the edge that players will get is pretty thin apart from checking stuff like weather, or starting lineups. At that point, most of that edge comes from choosing under owned (not necessarily value) players who have about the same mathematical chance to go for a big game as someone like Miggy vs. Johnny Gascan does.

    In my mind, that is the part which separates the pros from the amateurs. Most of the same resources they use are available to everyone, so they don’t get too much of an advantage from there, but DFS is their job, so not only can they spend more time delving into these seeming minutiea to the amateur, but they also have absolute LOADS more experience in using this information to their advantage.

    I absolutely guarantee that my 400 lineups vs any random pro’s lineups would not have the same mathematical odds to win after everything is taken into account.

    The edge might be very small, but extrapolated over a large enough data set, that edge compounds into real significance.

  • 2021Labs

    If you like me are a smaller stakes player, its not that hard to prevent yourself from being feasted on by the high BR sharks of the industry. I used to enter my cash game LUs into the huge multi entry double ups, maybe entering 2 LUs 25x each for a dollar a pop. I did this in smaller stakes because there are more fish in that sea than in the higher dollar double ups, however there are still sharks entering their LUs the max amount of times allowed in those contests. So ive been focusing on more single entry 50/50s. You still see the big names, but they arent able to comprise as big of a portion of the field as multi entry contests.

    If the smaller stakes players and the newbies start filling up the single entry contests more, the sites will adjust and make more of those to play in. Right now, they have no reason to change since so many new players are throwing 1 or 2 darts at the multi entry contests with huge grand prizes. And all thats doing is feeding the sharks.

    Im not anti multi entry high grand prize at all, I just think people need to be more self aware of how the whole industry works, and where they fit in the grand scheme.

  • stonejack26

    @dustyschmidt22 said...

    If you like me are a smaller stakes player, its not that hard to prevent yourself from being feasted on by the high BR sharks of the industry. I used to enter my cash game LUs into the huge multi entry double ups, maybe entering 2 LUs 25x each for a dollar a pop. I did this in smaller stakes because there are more fish in that sea than in the higher dollar double ups, however there are still sharks entering their LUs the max amount of times allowed in those contests. So ive been focusing on more single entry 50/50s. You still see the big names, but they arent able to comprise as big of a portion of the field as multi entry contests.

    If the smaller stakes players and the newbies start filling up the single entry contests more, the sites will adjust and make more of those to play in. Right now, they have no reason to change since so many new players are throwing 1 or 2 darts at the multi entry contests with huge grand prizes. And all thats doing is feeding the sharks.

    Im not anti multi entry high grand prize at all, I just think people need to be more self aware of how the whole industry works, and where they fit in the grand scheme.

    This is spot on. Gotta learn how to feed the GPPs with house money and to do that my best bet has been 50/50s (still hate the rake on these). Took all year but started scoring high enough consistently to feel safer in the double ups but yeah, getting passed by the sharks is frustrating cause the swings with all the entries can be drastic.

    Entering large Multi-Entry GPPs with a one to few LUs is just crossing your fingers and grabbing your ankles. It’s a throw away but the odds are better than the state lotto so whatever. Hopefully we all win one on house money one day. But it’s foolish to try if you can’t win a cash game on the regular unless it is purely entertainment and you have no realistic expectation of winning.

  • aka_the_goat

    @toxx6878 said...

    My thing is if you can’t multi enter you shouldn’t play multi entry.

    Genius! Why is this so difficult for some?

  • stonejack26

    @aka_the_goat said...

    Genius! Why is this so difficult for some?

    Maybe cause DKs promotes ‘Turn $3 or $20 into Millions!’…

  • jszabo417

    I’m a low volume player (about $20-$40) day mostly in the DK Moonshot or DK Hot Corner. I’d like to think I can compete with the sharks in terms of knowledge. Here’s my point – It’s frustrating for guys like me, but it’s not impossible. I was down probably $200 on the season until last week when I finished 2nd in the Hot Corner good for a winnings of $3,000.

    For someone like myself, it was extremely gratifying. Is the money life changing? No, it’s not. However, it’s a nice chunk of change and it proves to me that there’s enough to go around for everyone.

    Even when the sharks have the maximum entries that accumulate 1-2 percent of the field I’ve seen countless threads on how many billions of different lineup combinations exist. Yes, the sharks are at an advantage, but if you believe in your own strategy and you play out the season, I promise you will have a night like I just experienced.

  • dude_abides7

    @toxx6878 said...

    The sites and the sharks work together (unintentionally) to lure in fish with pipe dreams of 7 figures so they can all profit.

    I would go as far to say that this collaboration is intentional. Both sides have been giving the proverbial “reach around” for the last 2 years now. Why else would FD essentially overnight raise their daily PER SLATE limits from 1000 to 5000 games? They likely were getting complaints from the high volume sharks that they couldn’t get into as many “new player pool” (fish) games as they wanted. Since it benefits the FD’s bottom line they were happy to oblige. I see nothing “unintentional” in this at all.

    Manually enter your cash H2H games and play single entry GPP. It is the only way to cover your ass as a non-high volume player. Trust me, the sites are not looking out for the average DFS’ers best interest. That is unless getting bent over a rail and sodomized interests you….then yeah, they are there to help with that for sure.

  • LGBuffalo

    I was originally drawn in by the same logic that I imagine most were to DFS. Turn small amounts of money into larger amounts of money just by using what you know about sports. Quickly, I learned that’s just not how it works, so instead of diving into all the tournaments I could find, I had to figure out what suited me. Indeed, I was getting frustrated with putting together strong-scoring line-ups, only to have them not cash at all. Then, I figured out that I really enjoy the single-entry tournaments. I feel there’s a better chance for my (sometimes) decent line-up to do well as it’s more even than facing people with many, many line-ups.

    Indeed, there’s less of a chance that I can hit it big, but that’s alright. I would rather my line-up fail miserably against everyone’s single entry than to deal with the pros.

  • rsigler65

    @dude_abides7 said...

    I would go as far to say that this collaboration is intentional. Both sides have been giving the proverbial “reach around” for the last 2 years now.

    Ah yes, it’s a conspiracy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the CIA is involved as well…

    Actually, there may be legitimate reasons for raising the limit. One I can think of would be to help fund the advertising blitz, (which I’m not a big fan of). But I do wish the conspiracy theorists would just do some research and put out some winning lineups instead of hanging around scowling in the forums. You’d be surprised at how often you’d finish ahead of those ‘pros’.

  • dude_abides7

    @rsigler65 said...

    Ah yes, it’s a conspiracy. I wouldn’t be surprised if the CIA is involved as well…

    Actually, there may be legitimate reasons for raising the limit. One I can think of would be to help fund the advertising blitz, (which I’m not a big fan of). But I do wish the conspiracy theorists would just do some research and put out some winning lineups instead of hanging around scowling in the forums. You’d be surprised at how often you’d finish ahead of those ‘pros’.

    Um..conspiracy? Who the hell said that. I was simply stating that the businesses purposely and INTENTIONALLY cater to their premium members. Typically these are the individuals that pay most into their cause. I was stating the obvious there turbo…no reason to get snippy.

  • setcamper

    @LGBuffalo said...

    Then, I figured out that I really enjoy the single-entry tournaments. I feel there’s a better chance for my (sometimes) decent line-up to do well as it’s more even than facing people with many, many line-ups.

    I’m new to DFS, taking it slowly and after reading this thread I thought this single-entry advice might be a new area to focus. Then I fired up DK and did a search for all NFL single entry tourny’s under $10… currently 9.

    Maybe it’s early in the week and these fill up later and DK adds more, but that’s slim pickings outside the shark tank.

  • rsigler65

    Arite welp, I must have misunderstood the sodomy comment…anyway, of course they cater to their premium members. How else would a business survive?

  • dude_abides7

    @rsigler65 said...

    Arite welp, I must have misunderstood the sodomy comment…anyway, of course they cater to their premium members. How else would a business survive?

    The problem is they are catering to their volume guys while claiming that they are trying to create the “best playing experience possible for everyone”. It’s just not true. But that is OK…if you stick to single entry GPP and leagues you can do just fine. To some degree I agree with the point that if you are that unhappy about the structure of multi-entry then simply don’t play it.

    That said, FD & DK’s entire advertising platform over the last 3 weeks was centered around some ‘pie in the sky’ idea that the new user can simply log in and win major money. It just isn’t true. They will get eaten alive. Instead of trying to retain their new users it seems like these sites are OK with just bleeding them out as quickly as possible and just advertising their way to new users every month and excepting a high number of turnover users that go dormant after a month of use.

    To me that just seems like a terrible business model if you are trying to sustain growth and build for the long run. Right now they can do what they want because the demand is elastic, but eventually the ‘new user’ blitz will slow down and what you are left with is shit in the well and less amount of people willing to drink the water.

  • ZenBeats

    “Learn to swim”.

  • cjs5555

    @dude_abides7 said...

    The problem is they are catering to their volume guys while claiming that they are trying to create the “best playing experience possible for everyone”. It’s just not true. But that is OK…if you stick to single entry GPP and leagues you can do just fine. To some degree I agree with the point that if you are that unhappy about the structure of multi-entry then simply don’t play it.

    That said, FD & DK’s entire advertising platform over the last 3 weeks was centered around some ‘pie in the sky’ idea that the new user can simply log in and win major money. It just isn’t true. They will get eaten alive. Instead of trying to retain their new users it seems like these sites are OK with just bleeding them out as quickly as possible and just advertising their way to new users every month and excepting a high number of turnover users that go dormant after a month of use.

    To me that just seems like a terrible business model if you are trying to sustain growth and build for the long run. Right now they can do what they want because the demand is elastic, but eventually the ‘new user’ blitz will slow down and what you are left with is shit in the well and less amount of people willing to drink the water.

    Mostly agree with you, except I do think they really are trying to create the “best ..experience…for everyone”. There is demand for multi-entry. There is demand for single-entry. They’re trying to size the guaranteed contests appropriately so that they can profit, but they’re still turning out a ton of guaranteed contests – and people don’t want to play non-guaranteed contests that don’t fill and get cancelled. DK and FD are winning at this, but you look at some of the smaller sites and they seem to be losing on their gty’d contests regularly. I don’t think they’re intentionally trying to cater to one group vs. any other at this point – I really think they’re trying to maximize play since they’re essentially the house in a casino and they make money when the contests fill.

    Now they will likely eventually come to a point where they realize that trying to cater to all players is not the most profitable method over the long run. I don’t know if the answer is to maximize users and try to offer fair games to the masses (and continue selling the “big cash” dream they advertise), or if it is more profitable to cater to the sharks in the future because they are funding the bulk of the sites’ rakes. Different sites will probably go in different directions on this.

    I AM certain, however, that the governments involving in regulating these sites will grab at more of the action over time as they realize how much money is moving around. And that will spur change one way or another. That change probably won’t benefit us as players.

    In the meantime, enjoy the fact that there is a lot of variety in the games offered – high stakes, low stakes, multi-entry, single-entry, large slates, small slates. We have a lot of choice in what games we play and the odds are fairly upfront if you’re paying attention. DK even offers you the choice to ensure you’re not playing the same opponent more than once in H2H games – it’s a nice feature that they really don’t have to offer especially since it potentially reduces their rake.

    I still think the best way to mitigate the bankroll bullies would be to flatten the payout structure so there’s less incentive to multi-enter on a huge scale, but that’s not how they’re doing it today. In the meantime, we all make a decision to play or not.

    And regarding the advertising campaign – (i) I think it’s disingenuous at best, and (ii) it is true that a new user can simply log in and win major money – even if it’s an extremely low probability.

  • fmarriott22

    @cjs5555 said...

    DK even offers you the choice to ensure you’re not playing the same opponent more than once in H2H games – it’s a nice feature that they really don’t have to offer especially since it potentially reduces their rake.

    Furthermore, you can ‘exclude’ players you don’t want to play against. That Max Dulary guy was always scooping my Head Up’s, and obv was losing to him. Now he and other high volume guys are on that exclusion list. So there are some tools we can take advantage of against these high volume guys. It was very annoying though, and I realize that not only do they have lineup scripts, but also have the ability to scoop HU cash games. So the fact DK at least provides these tools is a great plus, but frankly, it took an email to support for me to find out about it. Maybe that’s on me, but certainly think many don’t know about it.

    As for the multi’s, it is without doubt that the sites and the sharks are in a symbiotic relationship. This will continue as long as money is there to be made by both sides. I do think at some point they need to think about their player retention model. If not, it will get to a point where the graph line will peak, and then it will start to come down on a sharp decrease.

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