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  • kb32dawgs

    So I’m in a little 5 dollar 20 man league on FD and Assani and Killab2482 who are both RG employees and have the exact same lineup in the exact same order. First of all why are two big time players playing in a 5 dollar 20 man league and why the need to share lineups? This is the kind of bullshit that is turning players off to DFS. And you guys wonder why entries are dropping like flies on these sites.

  • hambazaza

    RG Blog Program Manager, 2014 RG Party Beer Pong Champion

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  • nrberkeley

    I just don’t understand why it’s so hard for DFS’ers to have these conversations in a polite way.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @AtGame7 said...

    Otherwise, I wonder what the odds are of two players having the exact same lineup. I’m not talking about back-fitting data when a 20,000+ entry tournament is over. I mean get two people to examine the slate and put together their lineup, what are the odds they would be exactly the same?

    1) actually, “backfitting” isn’t the right term there, but if you could get access to many of the past tournaments, tracking lineup collisions that way would get you close – and then comparing that over many samples to one driven from the probability side would give you a fairly good feeling for how much is due to chance and how much is on purpose

    2) the odds are actually higher than you would probably think – which I think is the main issue we see these threads constantly – they are sort of our way of stomping around about how our brains don’t intuit differences between random and near random well.

    I try to only be terrible at only one DFS sport at a time, so I don’t do much NBA – but downloading the first big tournament for NBA I could find on FD I got a list of players and it was a breakdown (tossing listed injuries out) of 23 PG, 25 SG, 21 SF, 24 PG, and 15 C.

    A common incorrect way I see people doing the math here is to do permutations on that full list – and that would be like ~1T possible permutations. That number seems so large that it seems very unlikely we would see collisions in lineups.

    The first issue there is that they aren’t permutations, they are combinations (order doesn’t matter). So doing combinations without repetitions drops that down to ~79B possible lineups.

    Then there are still two major issues there, which is that it ignores the salary cap, and the huge gorilla in the room that people who post this stuff seem to overlook – goal seeking. We are all trying to maximize points, and many people will approach that maximization using the same external features – meaning that they are going to be picking from a much smaller pool of players.

    So really, there are potentially 20ish in each, but in reality people are going to be picking 5-10 from each group.
    If 10 from each group, then you are looking at ~41M combinations, and if 5 in each group, you are down to only ~50k combinations.

    50k combinations by itself would be small enough to start seeing collisions in big tournaments, but that still doesn’t take into account the salary caps.

    To get an accurate figure there would be more difficult, because you then need to start picking who the actual limited pool of players is, vs just randomly – and then within that, the salary limits will dramatically reduce the possible solution space.

    A very generous estimate (meaning generously allowing it to remain larger than I suspect it really is) would be dropping it down to around 1k lineups (I can easily enough give more accurate figures if someone gives me examples of limited position pools, vs “all”).

    So the final “bad at math” thing that comes up is that if I were to pick a random number between 1 and 100 (I pick 42, obviously), and I then ask you to guess it, then you have a 1% chance of guessing it correctly. If I pick two (separate) random numbers between 1 and 100 (Say 42 and 13), then ask you to guess them both, then there is a .01% chance that you will guess both of them correctly (and still 1% that you pick either correctly).

    When looking at the probabilities of collisions like this, people seem to gravitate to that sort of thinking – there are thousands of possibilities, and then a series of them being the same must be really difficult to randomly pick.

    But instead it is a series of selections of 1, so they are cumulative – the more times you select, then the more likely you will have a collision.

    And then these are all going to be probability distributions, and in this case non guassian (because we are goal seeking within a potentially random solution space, not randomly selecting in that same space), so you will get variance off of expected (aka swongs bro), but for the most part if you had roughly 1000 “better” lineups and 20k people entering, then you should expect around 20 collisions.

    I suspect there are many fewer “better” lineups, and probably something closer to 200-400 of them (which may also be why in contests without entry limits, you may see pros clustering around similar numbers of entries in the same contest as each other – particularly when the total cost to them is well under their Kelly Criterion limit), and as that figure drops and the size of the contest increases, you get those collisions.

    Like I said, I can get a lot more exact if someone gives me concrete examples – I don’t follow NBA, so I would be rostering coaches and mascots and cheerleaders. They seem good.

    To the OP who requires sports experience and hates dem nerds, I went to states for track and XC in high school and nationals in college for the same. I hope that makes my math better.

    **The above also doesn’t fully account for what is something along the lines of Bayesian clustering – meaning that while any given player has some probability of being picked – that probability may go skyrocketing up once another player is picked. Due to how points cluster – if one dude has a monster night, other guys do too (assists or whatever the hell you feel does it, or maybe they have a better mascot – I really think I am on to something with the mascots).
    So once you pick one guy – the odds that you are going to pick similar following guys as someone else who also has that guy are huge.

  • tvsfrink

    @nrberkeley said...

    I just don’t understand why it’s so hard for DFS’ers to have these conversations in a polite way.

    Because internet.

    25 years ago, when we had to sit around a table or talk on the phone to discuss fantasy rules for our leagues, we all knew each other and liked each other. And we would have gotten punched for things that are said here every day.

  • rsigler65

    You’re all almost as idiotic as I am for reading this thread. Congrats!

  • slashtc

    @rsigler65 said...

    You’re all almost as idiotic as I am for reading this thread. Congrats!

    Almost

  • Steroid

    What the OP is really saying is “RG experts should not play DFS, just like FanDuel and DK employees, because it’s just not fair.”

    Don’t know why she used so many words?

  • Greg1212

    @Steroid said...

    What the OP is really saying is “RG experts should not play DFS, just like FanDuel and DK employees, because it’s just not fair.”

    Don’t know why she used so many words?

    He was actually saying…. ‘Waaaaaaaaahhhhh, wahhhhhhhhhhhhhh, wah – I lost so it’s someone else’s fault’

    That’s how I read it anyway.

  • D4RTHPH4D4R

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Feels like a Blount week.

  • AtGame7

    @AssaniFisher said...

    What is this in reference to? I have never cheated or done anything against the rules. I have been involved in the gambling industry for 10+ years and I have a stellar reputation. I have never ever “openly bragged about less than spectacular behavior.” I have always tried to be as upfront and honest about my behavior as possible.

    I have never accused you of cheating nor am I now. I don’t doubt for one second everything you do is within the rules. We agree that I don’t have to like the rules, but I understand what they are it was never my intention to imply you were breaking the rules. I apologize if it came off that way.

    The “less than spectacular behavior” comment comes from a situation in your first video blog mostly unrelated to DFS. I’d go into detail but I’m sure it will be another set of differing opinions that will spiral the thread further in the abyss. I doubt it concerns you enough, and it shouldn’t, but if you really want to know what the reference is to I can PM you.

    Again, I think we disagree on a number of things but not about you cheating. It was never my intention to bring your integrity into the issue.

  • KevKev198622

    Ah yes sharks with unlimited bankrolls in 5 dollar games.

    Then people wonder why this is being shut down in state after state.

    Pathetic.

  • DSharpe26

    I’m pretty new and just a lone wolf, sports fan in this DFS world. I’m sure my opinion is useless to most of you, but they have a box here, so I’m going to type it and hit send.

    I don’t really get the hate for lineup sellers, buyers, sharers, etc. I really don’t give a shit if everyone of you buy/sell/share and enter the same lineup in the same contest as me every night.

    I also don’t care if the “pros” want to drop down and play what I’m playing. I’ll get the exact same satisfaction out of beating them for $5 as I would beating someone who just made their first $20 deposit for $5.

    My goal will always be the same – do the necessary research and try to put a lineup in that is better than everyone else’s. Pretty simple game.

  • petesdynasty

    I had a 20 man contest a couple days back with some RG contributors/high volume players where 6 people had exactly the same lineup. There is no way on earth they all did their own separate research and were like “yup, these are all completely obvious”. It was a decently sized slate.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    @KevKev198622 said...

    Ah yes sharks with unlimited bankrolls in 5 dollar games.

    Then people wonder why this is being shut down in state after state.

    Pathetic.

    Not because good players play low entry tournaments.

    I have news for you, there are plenty of players that only play low stakes that are every bit as good as the ‘Sharks’.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    @petesdynasty said...

    I had a 20 man contest a couple days back with some RG contributors/high volume players I won’t name where 6 people had exactly the same lineup. There is no way on earth they all did their own separate research and were like “yup, these are all completely obvious”. It was a decently sized slate.

    Link or it didn’t happen.

  • petesdynasty

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    Link or it didn’t happen.

    I’ll dig through my history logs when I get home. By the way, they all finished 10th place and all finished with 33.33 winnings in a 109 entry contest.

  • petesdynasty

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/13879/contests/13879-19988564/entries/328642319/scoring

    You want to talk about actual bullshit and lineup sharing…forget 2 people with same lineup. 6! And look at the slate of games!

  • Steroid

    hmmmm

    Where’s Crazy Gabey when you need him?

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

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    @petesdynasty said...

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/13879/contests/13879-19988564/entries/328642319/scoring

    You want to talk about actual bullshit and lineup sharing…forget 2 people with same lineup. 6! And look at the slate of games!

    I only see one person from RG? 3rd, does shows here. I don’t know any of the other 5 guys with him.

  • idmartin

    @petesdynasty said...

    https://www.fanduel.com/games/13879/contests/13879-19988564/entries/328642319/scoring

    You want to talk about actual bullshit and lineup sharing…forget 2 people with same lineup. 6! And look at the slate of games!

    You should love to see a 20 person 50/50 that now becomes a 15 person league with the top 10 getting paid. You only need to beat 5 people, but you couldn’t, so off to the forums you go…….

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

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    NBA it’s common for players to have the same lineup. This comes up 8-10 times a year, and it’s tired. If you have an issue with people selling lineups, email support on the sites. There are no rules against it. Complaining about it, does absolutely nothing. Assani didn’t have to come on here, but he did. Everybody here that contributes, is here to help you guys. We give out everything, we don’t hold anything back. If you read and watch the shows, there’s a good chance you can make the same cash lineup as us.

  • sgaffney

    @stevietpfl said...

    I only see one person from RG? 3rd, does shows here. I don’t know any of the other 5 guys with him.

    I’m not entering into this collusion debate but I’m pretty sure you know who Makisupa is? I know he’s not affiliated with RG but, c’mon, he’s a pretty well known player

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 997

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

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    I know who he is (I was looking at page 2 and missed him tied). If you look at the lineup, it’s pretty easy to see all the chalk there. I can back down that lineup, and it was a few days ago.

  • petesdynasty

    @stevietpfl said...

    I only see one person from RG? 3rd, does shows here. I don’t know any of the other 5 guys with him.

    I’m not going to go witch hunting in my history to show you who clearly shares lineups with who and who doesn’t. But I’ve played enough higher stake 50/50’s in multiple contests on the same slate that there’s a very high likelihood that certain RG contributors are in fact lineup sharing.

    It doesn’t really bother me all that much, until they’re all stacked in one contest and running a train where it could completely screw you and others over.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 997

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @petesdynasty said...

    I’m not going to go witch hunting in my history to show you who clearly shares lineups with who and who doesn’t. But I’ve played enough higher stake 50/50’s in multiple contests on the same slate that there’s a very high likelihood that certain RG contributors are in fact lineup sharing.

    It doesn’t really bother me all that much, until they’re all stacked in one contest and running a train where it could completely screw you and others over.

    If they are, which I’m not sticking up for anybody.. is it against the rules? no.

    I talk to a group of people daily, and during MLB, I work with another person and we have the same lineup daily. I have nothing to hide about it. It’s not against the rules on the sites, and until it is, I will continue to work with this person.

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