NFL FORUM

Comments

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Historically, I’ve looked primarily for three things:

    1) A defense that can get to the passer

    2) A team that is likely to win the game, and thus get opportunities to rush the passer

    3) A QB who is likely to turn the ball over when pressured (takes sacks, forces the ball, etc)

    I do this because I’ve found that pressure rate has been a much better predictor of future takeaways than past takeaways; fumbles and INTs are difficult to predict, but it’s made easier by ignoring how many a team has gotten in the past and instead focusing on how often they’ll be able to pressure the QB.

    I’ve admittedly overlooked the ST aspect of D/ST (outside of a very simplistic look at the returner). What are some ways you analyze D/ST? Which important stats do you look for?

  • mchin1027

    Whether or not the team is the Broncos.

  • zaiko888

    Basically your 1, 2, 3 because these factors are more likely to get your defense to score a touchdown., and I play in GPPs only anymore. Defense in those is more or less to me a roll of the dice of about 5-10 options.

    Injury news is not as prevalent for defensive players, but I will always check that. For example this week no one was talking about Dontari Poe being out, centerpiece of that great line. I thought this would be a big reason AP would have a successful day.. Didn’t happen though so not the best example.

  • jimmyquinella

    • Blogger of the Month

    10 print “Will they score the most points?”

    20 goto 10

    Run

  • chris1485

    I agree with everything you said. I also like home defenses and looking at opponent offensive line rank. St Louis screams must play to me this week, with Cleveland allowing 22 sacks through 6 games. Rams have 19 sacks through 5 games…A little worried about foles giving Cleveland short field , but they pretty much have everything I look for. I also always pick my favorite 3 defenses from the bottom up and try to have a little variance.

  • dizzle

    I tend to play against teams that are pass heavy as I feel that interceptions are more likely with more pass attempts. I also don’t play defenses in a game that I figure to be one sided as garbage time points still count against you

  • SJR

    What’s the best D this week out of these this week (price not a factor)

    Pats vs. Jets
    Skins vs. Bucs
    Dolphins vs. Texans
    Falcons @ Titans

  • nvalencia30

    • x2

      2014 FAFC Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @mchin1027 said...

    Whether or not the team is the Broncos.

    You may have said this in jest, but this triggered something for me. Regarding special teams, the Broncos historically aren’t good. In fact, I used to play in a season long league that gave a point for every 20 kickoff/punt return yards and I would often exclude the teams playing in Denver because kickoff returns are so rare there. You can find a kicker’s touchback rate, and this shouldn’t determine which D/ST you play in DFS, but it will at least reflect special teams “opportunities” better than simply ignoring the kicking game.

  • maddogg1007

    Jets vs Pats and Jets for the upset.

  • jodawy

    Great thread! I have struggled with this and realized I need to put more time into it.

    Having some criteria would be a start

  • bluesjack

    @Jon Bales said...

    Historically, I’ve looked primarily for three things:

    1) A defense that can get to the passer

    2) A team that is likely to win the game, and thus get opportunities to rush the passer

    3) A QB who is likely to turn the ball over when pressured (takes sacks, forces the ball, etc)

    Great points, I’m thinking this spells Carolina this week

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I’ve been writing a defense article for RG for the last 2 seasons using a simple formula of teams that “fit the criteria.” The criteria being teams that are at home, favored by 3 or more, with a total of 45 of less.

    I’ve also tracked the control groups of all favorites, all home teams, and all teams. The average results over 21 weeks have been pretty good so far:

    Fit the Criteria- 9.49 fantasy points per game
    All Favorites- 8.60 fantasy points per game
    All Home Teams- 7.53 fantasy points per game
    All Teams- 7.18 fantasy points per game

  • BobGrinder

    @Stewburtx8 said...

    I’ve been writing a defense article for RG for the last 2 seasons using a simple formula of teams that “fit the criteria.” The criteria being teams that are at home, favored by 3 or more, with a total of 45 of less.

    I’ve also tracked the control groups of all favorites, all home teams, and all teams. The average results over 21 weeks have been pretty good so far:

    Fit the Criteria- 9.49 fantasy points per game
    All Favorites- 8.60 fantasy points per game
    All Home Teams- 7.53 fantasy points per game
    All Teams- 7.18 fantasy points per game

    Wondering if you can see what adding facing a rookie qb to the criteria would do to the scores.

  • jonconnington

    I have found this to be the best method.

    1. Pick a defense at random
    2. Get lucky
    3. End

  • ATL_Gunner

    I have recently considered the “ST” part a little more. If I’m in a GPP, I might consider someone I consider a strong play at the WR position (Landry, Sanders, Brown, etc) and see if I like their team’s defense in the matchup too. I then look at the opposing team’s punt return percentage (how many punt are returned vs. fair catch – I take the touchbacks out because those aren’t getting returned even if they stay in

    I don’t think I can predict punt return TDs, but I might be able to better predict opportunities. If I like both the defense and the receiver matchup (or maybe like the defense matchup, and think the WR matchup is average), I consider pulling the trigger in an effort get more differentiation from the field if it goes off.

  • Gaudexmachina

    For ST, I look at the supposed coverage of the opposing team’s ST. If the opposing team has poor coverage (ie allow big runbacks, blocks, doesnt kick off through the endzone), then that team gets a bonus in ranking.

    Check for Homefield advantage. Also associated with this is the type of field they are playing on. Best example is the split for the Rams between home and away.

    Oh, and weather as a predicter of scoring capability for opponent. Get Kirk Cousins or, sadly this year Peyton, playing in a strong wind and insta lock his opponent.

    Check the Adjusted value of offense for the opposing team. Add it to the adjusted DVOA of the defense.

    Edit: Thought of another one. Look for one dimensional teams facing a DST that is good against that dimension.
    Ex: The cowboys without 3/4 of their passing game pretty much just run the ball. If they were to play a team that has speed to cover the passes out of the backfield and could stop the run, I would be all in on that DST.

  • ocal05

    Love the Rams and Redskins Defenses this week. Rams Should control the clock with gurley, leaving there pass rushers to get alot of looks at mccown. Love mccown, but this game has the look of when St. Luis blew out Oakland last season and they ran all over them. Gurley obviously top play of the week for 5k

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).