MLB FORUM

Comments

  • Mindcr1me

    I am not the best DFS player but I do enjoy playing every day, however I am in such a huge downswing now that it seems impossible to get out of this rut. I find myself not even breaking the 100 point mark on DK almost daily more often than not. I can’t even count how many times I pick the “can’t miss” guy and he goes 0-4, or the “can’t miss” pitcher gets single or negative points. It’s very frustrating obviously. Is there any advice anybody would like to share? How do you construct your rosters? I’ve tried all one offs, 5-3 stacks, 4-4 stacks, and just about everything in between. I appreciate any and all comments. Thanks

  • dcolton76

    This has been a crazy year, for sure. I’ve had to change my cash game approach. I used to focus on what I called “quality” hitters, and hopefully in good match ups, stadiums, weather, etc. To me, that was guys who were capable of multiple hits. Having a 3-4 day. And preferably with some speed, so they could maybe swipe a bag. Guys that could score points in multiple ways, so I wasn’t reliant on the HR. Yelich, Betts, Trout, Altuve, guys like that. I wanted guys most likely to not get a zero, but capable of a 25 point night too. But this year, i found I was losing to teams loaded with HR hitters more often than not. With the ball flying the way it is, you have to have the hrs to compete. A 1-4 with a HR and 3 Ks outscores my old 3-4 with 3 singles and a run scored. And those seem harder and harder to find. I’m now treating cash line ups like I’ve treated gpp in the past. It’s a new year, you need to identify the league wide trends and hop on.

  • jtkucheck

    It’s been said already, but I’ll pile on the “take a break” bandwagon with a hopefully positive anecdote of my own.

    Opening day I crushed it. I stacked Dodgers every which way, and they went absolutely bonkers. If you look at my “highest scores”, two of them are from the two contests I entered opening day. So what happened next? I hdeveloped Dodger bias and Jhoulys Chacin bias. Any time the Dodgers face a mediocre RHP, I go stack crazy, and any time Jhoulys Chacin pitches, I go stack crazy. Ultimately, that’s not a good strategy in the long term, although I suppose there are far worse biases to have. But the problem with bias isn’t that it means you are making bad picks now, just that your judgment may be clouded, and keep you from making even better picks.

    When did I notice this?

    I got married two weeks ago, and went on a mini-moon last weekned. I spent zero time on DFS for two weekends in a row, and only minimally during the week. While getting married was an amazing experience, as it applies to DFS, the time away allowed me to reset my biases, and take a fresh look at everything once I got back in the groove. I was back to to the more comprehensive research I was doing at the beginning of the season, not taking the many shortcuts available to us that help confirm our biases (reading the Grind Down, listening to the Morning Grind, DFS Twitter, etc). I did ok the first few days back, and then crushed it last night, taking 77th in the DK $4 20 max (of 28K entries) with a Cubs stack, Arrieta, and that M’s pitcher no one had heard of. If Matt Kemp hadn’t gotten injured it could have been even better.

    So could this one result be a fluke? Sure. But there is a far more satisfying feeling having trusted my own research and watching that pay off than scouring content hoping that whatever tout you decide is the best tout got things right that day.

    My next goal is to avoid Cubs stack/stacking against Jeff Locke bias.

  • Olhausen

    @CJtheGrump said...

    Has the pricing on DK hitters seemed really tight? It does for me. Any time a batter doesn’t go 0 for 4 for a couple days and actually gets on base, he’s automatically 4K. But if Bryce Harper goes 0 for 40 across a week and a half, he’ll still be 5K.

    Pitchers too. Any semblance of K upside? 12K.

    I got so sick of scraping the bottom of the barrel for bats that I just paired a starter and a closer from one team on a small slate. Figured I’d just punt that SP2 and settle for 8.25 points best case at under 5K. Turned out fine too starter got the win and ~25 points and the closer struck out 2 in the 9th with no walks or hits. Bats actually seemed OK.

    The prices are a joke now on DK no doubt. Like Severino last night on DK being 12,300$. The dude is good but no way should he have been priced that high. I understand ownership factors in also but he should have not been over 11,500. The only pitchers that should be over 12k are Schurzer, kershaw and Sale.

    Edit: You could add Strauss to that list also I suppose.

  • EadesScience

    Yep…..I agree with what everyone is saying here. I personally have been about as lucky as a bald guy winning a comb this MLB season.

    Ricky

  • joerapjr

    Sometimes taking some time off when in a down swing is helpful. Even Kyle Schwarber just got sent to AAA by the Cubs to clear his head! Change up your routine, take a few days off, and come back refreshed!

  • mabrla

    I lost for 47 straight slates last year after the ASB, then went on a heater and recovered all my losses before the end of the season.

    ‘‘Tis the game even if you’re good you can go ice cold.

  • CUTiger81

    The variance in MLB has been absurd this year. Was doing well in cash for a month, absolutely tanked the 2nd month so went to a more GPP heavy focus. Got really hot for 2 weeks and took down the squeeze which makes this a good season regardless of what happens but it’s been super up and down since then.

  • Colin408

    @joerapjr said...

    Sometimes taking some time off when in a down swing is helpful. Even Kyle Schwarber just got sent to AAA by the Cubs to clear his head! Change up your routine, take a few days off, and come back refreshed!

    +1.. A few days off and a new selection process works for me.

  • eaglezzz

    Best way out of a MLB slump is to play WNBA and CFL. That is what I did this past weekend and I hit big on both sports.

  • dirtydistance

    My thing is how many times do you tinker with a lineup trying to break a slump? I build my initial lineup. Can’t decide between Bellinger and Austin, then can’t decide between Harper and Judge. Come close on a few lineups I really like it I’m just a tad over budget, then finally I move some things around. If I play Elvis Andrus at short, everything fits. But I’m not sure about Elvis Andrus against Carrasco…then I move more parts around. Find a lineup that fits…then the girlfriend comes to the door and I’m done. Look at my phone a little later, 2 minutes after Lock basically and I see Wilson Contreras homered. I thought I had him in..no, I upgraded to Sanchez. I mean I’m seriously getting OCD with my lineups! Is there a way to control it? On a positive, I probably had a near GPP winning lineup built, but I wind up not even cashing in cash games!

  • JBH3

    “Research, Research, Research”….when you can do all the research in the world, but not see the Rangers coming out and scoring 8 ER on Carlos Carrasco, or the Indians hanging 13 runs when Encarnacion and Ramirez don’t even drive in a run…

    EFF research. My research led me to believe Marquez would be a good play last night. His numbers (xFIP) and the vegas line bore that out, but he was chased after 4 innings and 5ER.

    On Sunday I watched Betts, Pedroia, and Xander go a combined 0-12 and nearly tank my all day LU…

    I’m finding baseball to just be a damn lottery… I’m going to take the approach to 5-2-1 stacking my 3 favorite teams every night (Phils, Os, and Nats) and hoping one night I land on them w/ a 10+ run effort like the Twins (20 runs) and Rays (15 runs) just had not so long ago.

    Most of the time I am getting my SPs right. Last night’s slate was just bad for SPs. I had Samardzija in my most my LUs last night (good) paired w/ Marquez (bad).

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    i don’t mean this as a flame, but that type of thinking is a form of tilt and a misunderstanding of what we discover with our research: the probability of something occurring. some events are high probability ( a good matchup lets say) and others are lower probability of occurring, BUT BOTH CAN OCCUR. if we are thinking our research produces outcomes we need to examine our thinking/process (and there were reasons why Texas was not a bad play last night…not that I had them, I only had choo and beltre but faded Corrasco: why? the batted ball and statcast form plus how hot texas bats have been in the past L7 to L10).

    MLB (more than any other DFS i think) requires a statistical understanding of probability much like poker. in poker if i am getting a good price and the right number of outs, i will make that bet every single time, and in MLB, if my model tells me a good play is a good play and a good value i will play it everytime. if the guy goes o-4 or 4-4 doesn’t change the way one should look at the process—-seriously, if we are playing poker and have the right price for going after a flush, but the flush doesn’t come in, do we say poker is a lottery, math is a lie because we didn’t get a 5th spade? if that is how we think we need to avoid gambling or we can say, we have identified a flaw in our thinking, work on it, and come back and win money.

    PROJECTIONS ARE NOT DESTINY. https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
    https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.html

  • Felder15

    • 301

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • x2

      2018 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @divusjulius said...

    don’t mean this as a flame, but that type of thinking is a form of tilt and a misunderstanding of what we discover with our research: the probability of something occurring. some events are high probability ( a good matchup lets say) and others are lower probability of occurring, BUT BOTH CAN OCCUR. if we are thinking our research produces outcomes we need to examine our thinking/process (and there were reasons why Texas was not a bad play last night…not that I had them, I only had choo and beltre but faded Corrasco: why? the batted ball and statcast form plus how hot texas bats have been in the past L7 to L10).

    MLB (more than any other DFS i think) requires a statistical understanding of probability much like poker. in poker if i am getting a good price and the right number of outs, i will make that bet every single time, and in MLB, if my model tells me a good play is a good play and a good value i will play it everytime. if the guy goes o-4 or 4-4 doesn’t change the way one should look at the process—-seriously, if we are playing poker and have the right price for going after a flush, but the flush doesn’t come in, do we say poker is a lottery, math is a lie because we didn’t get a 5th spade? if that is how we think we need to avoid gambling or we can say, we have identified a flaw in our thinking, work on it, and come back and win money.

    Nailed it

  • JBH3

    Well said… and I don’t frown upon research. I do it myself… to great lengths w/ some success. My problem last night, with 20/20 hindsight, is that I was on too many chisox. Research however showed this as a good thing based on success against LHP for CWS and possible regression w/ Jordan Montgomery.

    However overall the CWS lineup had been in a bit of a funk over the current home-stand… But which one wins out (CWS success vs Lefties, or CWS slumping)? Apparently the slump did and not the success against LHP as Jordan Montgomery held CWS to 1 ER through 7 innings and did not start/continue his regression.

    On a smaller slate I would’ve had a greater amount of success by 5-2-1 stacking (or some variation), every team. My probability of falling into a good LU would be no different than you oodling over positional wRC+ and wOBA metrics vs handedness of opposing SP.

  • raymond333

    Andrus was money last night. Who would have thought lol. I just happened to put him in because he’s all that I could fit with my stacks, and dude went off. Agreed with the others, out of all DFS, MLB (imo), is the hardest to project. I mean they got Judge, Blackmon, Lamb, murphy, etc always projected high, probably because they are some of the best batters. But depending on who’s pitching, a player that cost 1/3 of what they do can blow it out of the water, and Betts or Judge will get a 0 or 3 that night. Just how it goes. Basketball and football is alot easier.

    I dabble small like I said, because I know I’m not on the grind like some of these guys, and I aint trying to be the fish for the sharks man, screw that lol. But, the few dollars I do play, I more times hit at least something than not. An Quins are starting to become my favorite. Technically (I dont think anyways) they arent really cash or gpp, more in the middle. But man, get in like 3-5 of the big $2 or $5 Quins, get at least a decent score, and watch your bankroll go up quick.

  • jtkucheck

    @divusjulius said...

    i don’t mean this as a flame, but that type of thinking is a form of tilt and a misunderstanding of what we discover with our research: the probability of something occurring. some events are high probability ( a good matchup lets say) and others are lower probability of occurring, BUT BOTH CAN OCCUR. if we are thinking our research produces outcomes we need to examine our thinking/process (and there were reasons why Texas was not a bad play last night…not that I had them, I only had choo and beltre but faded Corrasco: why? the batted ball and statcast form plus how hot texas bats have been in the past L7 to L10).

    MLB (more than any other DFS i think) requires a statistical understanding of probability much like poker. in poker if i am getting a good price and the right number of outs, i will make that bet every single time, and in MLB, if my model tells me a good play is a good play and a good value i will play it everytime. if the guy goes o-4 or 4-4 doesn’t change the way one should look at the process—-seriously, if we are playing poker and have the right price for going after a flush, but the flush doesn’t come in, do we say poker is a lottery, math is a lie because we didn’t get a 5th spade? if that is how we think we need to avoid gambling or we can say, we have identified a flaw in our thinking, work on it, and come back and win money.

    PROJECTIONS ARE NOT DESTINY. https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
    https://www.mathsisfun.com/accuracy-precision.html

    Agree with this so much.

    It’s so common in forums/on Twitter to see people say things like “Goldschmidt is trash” if he takes an 0-4 with a BB, but then you see those same people saying “Goldschmidt the GOAT!!!!!!! when he puts two in the seats and finishes with 6 RBI… when back in real life the actual player’s talent has likely not changed one bit between those two games. While I’m sure this is mainly venting, can’t help but think that some of this recency bias sticks with you and (perhaps subconsciously) influences your future decision making.

    I think the best example of Bad Process/Good Outcome I’ve seen recently is aggressively touting (you’re stupid if you don’t play batter X!!!) a batter because he had good BvP against LHPs, was facing a middling LHP, went 0-2 with a BB against him, then hit a bomb against a righty reliever, and of course our tout is all over Twitter gloating about how smart he is because of the LHP/RHB BvP split (never mind that the dinger came off a relief pitcher, and not a left-handed one).

    And people pay for this nonsense?

  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    Try doing this. Pick the elite pitcher. If there is no elite pitcher on the slate, pick the one with the most favorable Vegas line to get the win (-150 or better would qualify) in the lowest O/U game. Then, pick a Catcher that bats in the meat of the order (4-5-6). It doesn’t matter from what game (cheaper the better). Next, pick the cheapest Outfielders who are batting high in the order (1-2-3). Finally, fill in the infield (1B, 2B, SS, and 3B) ideally with sides with high run projections. On this last part, place a bias toward paying UP for 1B and 3B while saving on 2B and SS. In the end, your premiums are spent on P, 1B, 3B and your values are in the OF, 2B and SS.

    Finally, enter this in some $1-2 contests such as 3-man, 5-man, 10-man, and 50/50s. Try it with $20 and see how the night ends.

  • raymond333

    Damn, that actually sounds like some good advice ^^. Nice.

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    not a bad example of a way to take advantage of randomness and put oneself in a spot to get lucky. this is a pretty good strat for learning both about lineup construction and harnessing variance to work for you.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Baseball is the most random of all the sports IMO. It’s because there’s so many binary results in baseball. A 400 feet flyball can be an out but a 410 feet flyball can be a HR and be worth 14 points (compared to 0). I think it’s way harder than basketball because of the huge amount of variance in results.

  • tmarohl

    Baseball sucks, even though I have won the last few days. Bring on NFL and NBA. Baseball is just not enjoyable.

  • madmanjayWV

    @tmarohl said...

    Baseball sucks, even though I have won the last few days. Bring on NFL and NBA. Baseball is just not enjoyable.

    Baseball is the best DFS sport by far — take that JOONBAE advice to heart if ur a non-GPP player

  • Suntzu1084

    In my opinion the answer is snake draft format. It took alot of money and drama for me to reach this conclusion. Im glad I can finally help and not be a pain in the ass. Snake draft format for the win.

  • JBH3

    @joonbae said...

    Try doing this. Pick the elite pitcher. If there is no elite pitcher on the slate, pick the one with the most favorable Vegas line to get the win (-150 or better would qualify) in the lowest O/U game. Then, pick a Catcher that bats in the meat of the order (4-5-6). It doesn’t matter from what game (cheaper the better). Next, pick the cheapest Outfielders who are batting high in the order (1-2-3). Finally, fill in the infield (1B, 2B, SS, and 3B) ideally with sides with high run projections. On this last part, place a bias toward paying UP for 1B and 3B while saving on 2B and SS. In the end, your premiums are spent on P, 1B, 3B and your values are in the OF, 2B and SS.

    Finally, enter this in some $1-2 contests such as 3-man, 5-man, 10-man, and 50/50s. Try it with $20 and see how the night ends.

    I liked this roster construction strat a lot last night. I was routinely punting on catcher and missing out on some premiere plays but it was my constant go to to payup for pitcher. However, my pitcher selection process has improved over the last few weeks thanks to fangraphs and my excel skills. Charting some of the metrics and opposing offenses helps me come to my conclusion on where I can find value in starting pitching via my own research rather than taking the advice of a tout.

    Always trying to fit in a catcher in the 4-5-6 slot and getting a good value bat there and not punting on the position hoping the Tucker Barnhart and Josh Phegley of the world come through is a more reliable pathway to DFS winning.

    I’ve played enough cash games to know that most of the pros take one min sal. high order batter in every cash lineup as their salary relief rather than punt at catcher. I used Olson in that slot last night, and he didn’t come through but allowed me to fit in Severino and Scherzer on my way to a 135.85 LU that cashed in 10/11 entries missing only a winner takes all $27 pot…

  • ebsteelers

    was getting crushed on dk moved some action to fd, mainly was getting killed cause of terrible pitching…

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

  • FanDuel

    Get 1-month of RotoGrinders Premium for FREE (a ~$40value) by signing up through one of our links!

    Learn More
  • DraftKings

    Sign up for DraftKings using a RotoGrinders link & receive our DraftKings Premium content FREE for 1 month. That’s a ~$40 value! No DraftKings promo code necessary!

    Learn More
  • FantasyDraft

    FantasyDraft strives to put players first, with a mission to “provide a fun and fair experience for all.” To this end, the site has a well-built, easy-to-use interface and a the first of its kind in offering “Rake-Free” fantasy contests.

    Learn More

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler