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  • Mindcr1me

    I am not the best DFS player but I do enjoy playing every day, however I am in such a huge downswing now that it seems impossible to get out of this rut. I find myself not even breaking the 100 point mark on DK almost daily more often than not. I can’t even count how many times I pick the “can’t miss” guy and he goes 0-4, or the “can’t miss” pitcher gets single or negative points. It’s very frustrating obviously. Is there any advice anybody would like to share? How do you construct your rosters? I’ve tried all one offs, 5-3 stacks, 4-4 stacks, and just about everything in between. I appreciate any and all comments. Thanks

  • kellykip

    Still think a slump buster is the way to go

  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    @JBH3 said...

    I liked this roster construction strat a lot last night. I was routinely punting on catcher and missing out on some premiere plays but it was my constant go to to payup for pitcher. However, my pitcher selection process has improved over the last few weeks thanks to fangraphs and my excel skills. Charting some of the metrics and opposing offenses helps me come to my conclusion on where I can find value in starting pitching via my own research rather than taking the advice of a tout.

    Always trying to fit in a catcher in the 4-5-6 slot and getting a good value bat there and not punting on the position hoping the Tucker Barnhart and Josh Phegley of the world come through is a more reliable pathway to DFS winning.

    I’ve played enough cash games to know that most of the pros take one min sal. high order batter in every cash lineup as their salary relief rather than punt at catcher. I used Olson in that slot last night, and he didn’t come through but allowed me to fit in Severino and Scherzer on my way to a 135.85 LU that cashed in 10/11 entries missing only a winner takes all $27 pot…

    That’s pretty awesome JBH3!

  • Njsum1

    @JBH3 said...

    Always trying to fit in a catcher in the 4-5-6 slot and getting a good value bat there and not punting on the position hoping the Tucker Barnhart and Josh Phegley of the world come through is a more reliable pathway to DFS winning.

    Hey no badmouthing Tucker Barnhart, he always seems to come through for me with at least a decent performance when I roster him…haha

  • dirtydistance

    So today I took out Stroman and played Nova so I could “upgrade” from Shaw to Donaldson. EFF me. And this isn’t only today, this is a regular occurance. Why do I second guess my decisions?

  • neogamer

    • x2

      2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @dirtydistance said...

    So today I took out Stroman and played Nova so I could “upgrade” from Shaw to Donaldson. EFF me. And this isn’t only today, this is a regular occurance. Why do I second guess my decisions?

    Might be a good idea to run more then one lineup with all your guesses until you get back in a groove. I have been on a little bit of a slump also. Playing less and spending less this month until I break out of my funk.

  • dirtydistance

    @neogamer said...

    Might be a good idea to run more then one lineup with all your guesses until you get back in a groove. I have been on a little bit of a slump also. Playing less and spending less this month until I break out of my funk.

    You’re probably right. I’m pretty much a one lineup guy that plays mostly cash. I’d like to expand and start playing more money and more tournaments, but when I can’t even get one lineup right, my confidence is shot. But I did have the right pivot off Stras and then I screw it up to save a few hundred bucks thinking Nova was a safe lock for 6-7 innings and would have got me about 4-5 Ks, not the 1 he got me…and that’s gonna be the difference in cashing tonight!

  • txdave41

    I just don’t see how ppl are succeeding at this crap. Wainwright has awful road splits yet dominated a good team like Arizona. Somehow people just magically knew to avoid Arizona. I had Hahn rated fairly high yet Houston goes nuts on him. People magically knew to stack Houston.

    I don’t get why Dozier batting lead off couldn’t give me a single point. Once again, I manage to get my pitcher right and three batters getting home runs, but that’s not enough. It’s never enough.

  • dirtydistance

    @txdave41 said...

    I just don’t see how ppl are succeeding at this crap. Wainwright has awful road splits yet dominated a good team like Arizona. Somehow people just magically knew to avoid Arizona. I had Hahn rated fairly high yet Houston goes nuts on him. People magically knew to stack Houston.

    I don’t get why Dozier batting lead off couldn’t give me a single point. Once again, I manage to get my pitcher right and three batters getting home runs, but that’s not enough. It’s never enough.

    I hear ya. If I was clearly missing and getting killed, it would be so easy to walk away. What my problem is, I am so close to nailing it and perhaps even putting up a huge score. And being the competitive individual I am, I keep wanting to come back and start hitting these lineups I feel I’m overdue for. And yes, Waino. Paul Goldschmidt. Wow..even a walk would have got me the win in my games on Draft.

  • jtkucheck

    @txdave41 said...

    I just don’t see how ppl are succeeding at this crap. Wainwright has awful road splits yet dominated a good team like Arizona. Somehow people just magically knew to avoid Arizona. I had Hahn rated fairly high yet Houston goes nuts on him. People magically knew to stack Houston.

    I don’t get why Dozier batting lead off couldn’t give me a single point. Once again, I manage to get my pitcher right and three batters getting home runs, but that’s not enough. It’s never enough.

    Nobody succeeds every day. Some people fail because they make good decisions that have bad outcomes, and some people fail because they make bad decisions that have (predictably) bad outcomes. It looks like you did both- stacking the DBacks was a good decision that turned out poorly, and pitching Hahn against the Astros was not a good decision, and also turned out poorly. Again, you don’t “deserve” a good outcome just because you made a good decision, and conversely you don’t deserve a bad outcome just because you made a bad decision, but over time, your outcomes will generally match your decision making.

    To complicate matters, baseball is more about correlation than it is about getting any individual decision right. A while back on this thread, a guy offered some lineup construction advice on where to spend your money, and that’s worked for him. I thought I’d share what I’ve been doing that’s worked decently well for me.

    Start with the elite pitcher (this is the same as the other guy). Pair him with a cheap pitcher that will be relatively low owned and has good K numbers (even if there are a number of negatives). Pick the 5 man stack you like the best, along with a cheap catcher who hits bombs (Martin Maldonado, Austin Hedges, Robinson Chirinos types), and two guys who have the ability to go absolutely bonkers and hit 1-3 in the lineup- yesterday for me these guys were Aaron Judge and George Springer. Actually, I can’t think of a day in recent memory that Aaron Judge doesn’t at least garner some consideration for these spots. If you can include the catcher in your stack, then pick a cheap guy to fill in elsewhere that is hitting 1st or 2nd and can steal bases and/or hit bombs (the A’s usually have a guy that is useful for this due to all the platooning going on there).

    If your pitchers don’t kill you and your stack doesn’t completely flop, this should at least get you in the money. I managed a min cash even with a 5 man Dback stack because Judge and Springer did what Judge and Springer do, and Luis Castillo racked up some Ks against the Brew Crew. If you want to diversify a bit, pick the top 3 or 4 stacks and run this same lineup construction subbing the stack in and out.

    Lastly, and I can’t stress this enough- stop trying to max out your salary cap. Correlated lineups are worth far more than using every last dollar, I promise.

  • Boneys2000

    Haven’t gone through all the responses but My advice would be simply try something different.I can lose with the best of them,but lately I have been entering contests that I normally wouldn’t.Last night I actually came in first place in. 20 person league.I only won 25$,but it sure felt good.Also try different players and teams to gravitate towards.That might change your luck some.
    Remember only lose what you can afford,and don’t tell the Wife or girlfriend!
    Good luck

  • Njsum1

    @txdave41 said...

    I just don’t see how ppl are succeeding at this crap. Wainwright has awful road splits yet dominated a good team like Arizona. Somehow people just magically knew to avoid Arizona. I had Hahn rated fairly high yet Houston goes nuts on him. People magically knew to stack Houston.

    I don’t get why Dozier batting lead off couldn’t give me a single point. Once again, I manage to get my pitcher right and three batters getting home runs, but that’s not enough. It’s never enough.

    As a microstakes grinder who plays everyday, all 3 major sports, I understand your frustration especially in MLB. I can go weeks at a time feeling lucky just to get back half my entry fees, before going on a small run or having 1 nice finish. Yet from your post it seems like you are not seeing some things correctly. 1) As @jtkucheck (who gave some excellent advice) said Hahn was not a good play, he was someone you should have been targeting with batters. For 1 Houston had one of the largest implied team totals on the board, and 2, the astros just hung 10 runs (9 earned) on him a week ago in a pitchers ballpark. So regardless of how you rated Hahn those two factors should have made you say no, or reduce your exposure to very minimal. I don’t think many saw Wainwright coming and the only teams that likely rostered him were either hometowners or people max entering just giving a yolo for low ownership. No matter how bad the pitcher or the spot for the pitcher, no pitcher ever goes unowned.

    Also people didn’t know to fade Arizona. The stack was around 10%. It’s hard to say exactly depending on what players you pick, yet goldschmidt and lamb were both around 12 percent, which is not low considering it was a 13 game slate. And Houston was not excessively high…Springer was around 14%, yet the rest of the marquee names were around 10 with Marwin being around 3%. What I’m saying is that no one magically knew anything. I had 7 lineups last night with 1 d-back stack and 1 Houston stack. The only cash I got last night was a 4x from the Houston stack. In that stack my sp2, 3rd base, and catcher positions were also hot garbage. If I had hit on those I would had a 20 to 30x cash giving me a 4x profit instead of 40% loss.

    So what I’m saying is don’t get too frustrated, people are mostly playing the odds, and sometimes it takes time for the odds to tilt your way. Other than the Hahn read, you didn’t make any mistakes. For me yesterday, I was so enamored with Paulino for the K upside, I didn’t realize how he’s been getting smashed by righties and completely overlooked Khris Davis and Healy.

    Yet if you feel like your not into it or its becoming too frustrating/no longer fun, there’s no harm in either playing smaller stakes, taking some time off, or stopping playing MLB altogether.

  • Supersharpie

    Don’t feel bad OP, I went about a month without min cashing in GPPs earlier this year. Keep in mind, I only enter one LU a day in the FD Squeeze. Recently I have hit my stride a bit. What is currently working for me right now is starting the same two or three stud hitters everyday and not taking any major fliers with my SP. I fill rest of my lu in with mid-range and close to min priced guys in favorable opposite-handed (rvl, lvr) matchups. I also have stopped playing any of the Six Pack picks this year. Frankly, the recommendations have sucked with a few rare exceptions.

  • KindGuy

    @jtkucheck said...

    Nobody succeeds every day. Some people fail because they make good decisions that have bad outcomes, and some people fail because they make bad decisions that have (predictably) bad outcomes. It looks like you did both- stacking the DBacks was a good decision that turned out poorly, and pitching Hahn against the Astros was not a good decision, and also turned out poorly. Again, you don’t “deserve” a good outcome just because you made a good decision, and conversely you don’t deserve a bad outcome just because you made a bad decision, but over time, your outcomes will generally match your decision making.

    To complicate matters, baseball is more about correlation than it is about getting any individual decision right. A while back on this thread, a guy offered some lineup construction advice on where to spend your money, and that’s worked for him. I thought I’d share what I’ve been doing that’s worked decently well for me.

    Start with the elite pitcher (this is the same as the other guy). Pair him with a cheap pitcher that will be relatively low owned and has good K numbers (even if there are a number of negatives). Pick the 5 man stack you like the best, along with a cheap catcher who hits bombs (Martin Maldonado, Austin Hedges, Robinson Chirinos types), and two guys who have the ability to go absolutely bonkers and hit 1-3 in the lineup- yesterday for me these guys were Aaron Judge and George Springer. Actually, I can’t think of a day in recent memory that Aaron Judge doesn’t at least garner some consideration for these spots. If you can include the catcher in your stack, then pick a cheap guy to fill in elsewhere that is hitting 1st or 2nd and can steal bases and/or hit bombs (the A’s usually have a guy that is useful for this due to all the platooning going on there).

    If your pitchers don’t kill you and your stack doesn’t completely flop, this should at least get you in the money. I managed a min cash even with a 5 man Dback stack because Judge and Springer did what Judge and Springer do, and Luis Castillo racked up some Ks against the Brew Crew. If you want to diversify a bit, pick the top 3 or 4 stacks and run this same lineup construction subbing the stack in and out.

    Lastly, and I can’t stress this enough- stop trying to max out your salary cap. Correlated lineups are worth far more than using every last dollar, I promise.

    This post should be stickied.

    TxDave, you need to read this 100 times a day. Don’t go to sleep without making sure you’ve done so.

    JtKucheck basically just solved MLB DFS.

    Although I will say that gong with a catcher as part of your 5 man stack is a viable strategy too. Also, 5-3 lineups work most of the time too.

  • txdave41

    @elementasrat said...

    This post should be stickied.

    TxDave, you need to read this 100 times a day. Don’t go to sleep without making sure you’ve done so.

    JtKucheck basically just solved MLB DFS.

    Although I will say that gong with a catcher as part of your 5 man stack is a viable strategy too. Also, 5-3 lineups work most of the time too.

    That was a great post. I really appreciate taking time to explain what works for him. Lately, I feel like I’m playing whack a mole with these batters. I even do a lineup of all batters who are on a hot streak regardless of matchup. It never works. Last night, Mitch Moreland went cold on me along with Michael Taylor. Big scores from Granderson and Springer couldn’t overcome the duds and Nova being weak. I need to get back to just paying up for a pitcher. I stopped doing that after getting burned by elites like Kershaw and Max, but those guys have to eventually give me a good score, right?

  • Olhausen

    @kellykip said...

    Still think a slump buster is the way to go

    So funny cause I was going to post this the other day. Why not do what the big leaguers do and go to a bar or night club and get yourself a slump buster!

  • Dirt_Lavert

    @Suntzu1084 said...

    In my opinion the answer is snake draft format. It took alot of money and drama for me to reach this conclusion. Im glad I can finally help and not be a pain in the ass. Snake draft format for the win.

    Is snake draft like a typical nfl season long draft?

    I think this is the format on fantasy draft too right ?

    I am contemplating throwing 20$ on there (mostly for the deposit bonus) and trying that out. Sounds like it favors the people paying the most attention to the draft itself. I am always locked in for those few hours before lock so I think that would favor me!

  • Dirt_Lavert

    So with people talking about pitching approach this is how success comes.

    Gpp

    Top tier and low or mid tier

    OR

    Two upper middle tier (works when the top guys fail and you get better bats, this is legit my approach for pga every week in hoping the most expensive guys bust so I have ground to make up with the more balanced budget)

    Cash

    Both options above

    Or

    Pay up for 2 pitchers and find a cheap stack. I played 2 elite guys the other night and stacked the angels and finally won a league contest. Of course I put up 140 on a low scoring night and only play one 2$ cash contest lol. That came after a few bad days so I played cash and paid for pitching with cheap bats available

  • divusjulius

    • Blogger of the Month

    if we make our daily mlb decisions and avoid great plays because “they burned us in the past”, we will never ever win at this.

  • JBH3

    @txdave41 said...

    I just don’t see how ppl are succeeding at this crap. Wainwright has awful road splits yet dominated a good team like Arizona. Somehow people just magically knew to avoid Arizona. I had Hahn rated fairly high yet Houston goes nuts on him. People magically knew to stack Houston.

    I don’t get why Dozier batting lead off couldn’t give me a single point. Once again, I manage to get my pitcher right and three batters getting home runs, but that’s not enough. It’s never enough.

    Wainwright wasn’t a bad pick (see link below). I read this on Fangraphs leading up to that Zona start. I still felt like attacking him though because we don’t know how he’s actually going to approach the game, and I have this LOVE FEST with Zona bats & Chase Field. Apparently though he was not relying on his 4-seamer as much as he should have been, and this fangraphs writer concluded that if he threw it more, he’d be more successful since he was getting outs.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/underthrown-pitches-and-the-pitchers-who-underthrow-them/

  • JBH3

    I would incline those who are having issues w/ starting pitchers to take note of home/road splits and the pitcher’s xFIP in those situations. I’ve had success w/ this analysis, but you also have to consider the opposing team’s K % a low xFIP for the pitcher but a matchup w/ a low K offense is not always a good way to go.

    Additionally, for more review of your selection, just throw the pitcher’s name in a fangraph search and see what blogs and articles have been written on them lately. These writers are very good at what they do …..

  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    @JBH3 said...

    Wainwright wasn’t a bad pick (see link below). I read this on Fangraphs leading up to that Zona start. I still felt like attacking him though because we don’t know how he’s actually going to approach the game, and I have this LOVE FEST with Zona bats & Chase Field. Apparently though he was not relying on his 4-seamer as much as he should have been, and this fangraphs writer concluded that if he threw it more, he’d be more successful since he was getting outs.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/underthrown-pitches-and-the-pitchers-who-underthrow-them/

    Just one thing to add though. If you go back and watch the entire game, DJ Reyburn gave Wainwright 6 of his 8 strikeouts and totally controlled the outcome of this start & game. I know umpires make mistakes and miss calls here and there but this one is for the record books because five of the strikes he called were 18-24 inches off the plate according to pitchfx. That’s TWO feet off the plate. Wainwright was in pitcher’s counts all game long – expecially the first four innings.

    I’d be cautious of jumping on Wainwright bandwagon in his next start if DJ Reyburn is not behind the plate. Wainwright is still a semi gascan and that hasn’t changed with his four seamer. If anything, his 70% GB rate will regress back to the mean.

  • JBH3

    @joonbae said...

    Just one thing to add though. If you go back and watch the entire game, DJ Reyburn gave Wainwright 6 of his 8 strikeouts and totally controlled the outcome of this start & game. I know umpires make mistakes and miss calls here and there but this one is for the record books because five of the strikes he called were 18-24 inches off the plate according to pitchfx. That’s TWO feet off the plate. Wainwright was in pitcher’s counts all game long – expecially the first four innings.

    I’d be cautious of jumping on Wainwright bandwagon in his next start if DJ Reyburn is not behind the plate. Wainwright is still a semi gascan and that hasn’t changed with his four seamer. If anything, his 70% GB rate will regress back to the mean.

    Hey…thinks for that info… context is everything based on the results you mention, but leading into the game and not factoring in the umpire one could’ve had luck on their side had they read that fangraphs article and then started Waino.

    Despite research and statistical analysis there’s still a factor of luck required to win big in this thing….

  • joonbae

    • Blogger of the Month

    @JBH3 said...

    Hey…thinks for that info… context is everything based on the results you mention, but leading into the game and not factoring in the umpire one could’ve had luck on their side had they read that fangraphs article and then started Waino.

    Despite research and statistical analysis there’s still a factor of luck required to win big in this thing….

    Could not agree more with you.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @txdave41 said...

    Lately, I feel like I’m playing whack a mole with these batters.

    I know the feeling! I’m far from an expert, but I found that my slumps got shorter and overall performance increased when I started taking a Buffett “buy and hold” approach toward hitters (as others on this thread also alluded to in not so many words). I.e. since I’ll never be able to guess which days a given hitter will do well, I continually form my lineups from a relatively small pool of players that I like and just keep going back to the well. Some days it all comes together and I do well, others I end up with a bunch of 0-for-N hitters and chalk it up to an unlucky day. Overall, if you’re picking from a pool of good hitters you’ll do well more often than not.

    Caveat: I’m not saying to skip research, but I tend to use my research to choose from within my pool of preferred players and also to choose punt or complementary players.

  • lotusbomb

    I find that when I take a stand on who I like/target whether it be pitchers or hitters I do better than if I follow the tide of who is a consensus play.

    for example, routinely I will pick on the red sox with unknown pitchers or ones with some ability. the entire industry gasses them up so much that I normally get pitchers against them at sub 10%. it’s worked more often then not for me. example(cobb, 7/08, 4.4%. 25.45 FP, $7,100)

    also don’t have too big of an ego to realize what you do well with. I do my best with 6-7-8 game slates. instead of running 2-3 lineups on 9-16 game slates I will do 5-6 on those type of lineups. my preferred style lends itself to taking a stand on who I like where missing on picking someone can be the difference between finishing high(top 1,000) and not finishing at the cash line at all. example(george springer 7/07, 8% 46 FP, $5,100, 328th)

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