MLB FORUM

  • laxin

    Do many of you use players’ recent performances as a predictor? I’ve read a few times that it just a myth, and recent performances aren’t much of a predictor for future performance… But it does seem like a lot of people do factor it in when putting together a lineup.

    So is this something you choose to weigh when putting together a lineup? If so, do you use the past few games, 7 days, 14 days, ect? If you have any other thoughts on this topic I’d love to hear as well!

  • nta87

    I read a post today that it is a good idea going into each night with a fresh look on things. Do not let last night’s game deter you from playing that player again. Unless injuries or minute restrictions apply that is a whole different story.

  • Jeets232

    I’ve had the same questions regarding looking at stats over the past 7 days, 14 days, etc. I think they still carry weight but how much weight I’m not sure. If anyone has knowledge to add please expand on what I have said!

  • nta87

    @Jeets232 said...

    I’ve had the same questions regarding looking at stats over the past 7 days, 14 days, etc. I think they still carry weight but how much weight I’m not sure. If anyone has knowledge to add please expand on what I have said!

    In dfs minutes equals opportunity which in turn equals production. On the other hand there’s just some guys, when talking about the NBA, belong in the d league. Sometimes scrubs are just scrubs and no matter how many minutes they may be getting and they’re just dfs irrelevant.

  • walkoff9

    • 520

      RG Overall Ranking

    Anyone who says it’s a myth has never played baseball before.

    One day you feel like every swing you take you will hit the ball hard, and 2 weeks later you might not know how you ever got a hit before.

  • MrWorldwide

    I think it’s all about putting together your own routine for MLB. There is definitely a spot in your routine for checking recent performance. For instance if you have two Short Stops in a great matchups, but player A has been raking and player B is 3 for his last 20, I will always choose Player A.

  • slcseas

    Hot and cold streaks are absolutely real, at least in baseball. Knowing when the price is getting too high or too low because of the streak is the key to the succes. For the record, that’s something that I really suck at in baseball, so take this with a grain of salt.

  • Jeets232

    @walkoff9 said...

    Anyone who says it’s a myth has never played baseball before.

    One day you feel like every swing you take you will hit the ball hard, and 2 weeks later you might not know how you ever got a hit before.

    Very true, I’ve played baseball my whole life up until high school and when your hot you feel like you’re on top of the world. Also, I think the reason hot streaks are relevant in baseball is because confidence at the plate is HUGE for batters. I think stats like BABIP are good indicators of whether or not a player is actually hot or just getting lucky.

  • MinorThreat

    It’s hard not to take a hot streak into consideration but you could look more into the streak to see what it’s comprised of. There are times a batter is seeing the ball extremely well and their swing is perfect. A 10 game hitting streak could be just one hit in each game or multiple hits during those games while hitting the ball with authority.

    An example I like to use is Justin Upton: extremely streaky and will be for a few weeks at a time. When he’s driving the ball deep into center or the opposite field is when you know he’s heating up and will get hot.

    Cold streaks on the other hand are easier to stay from, but because this is daily, you should still put in the work to look into a hitter who is cold. It’s hard not to trust the process if the numbers and matchup favor a hitter even when they’re slumping.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    To look at things from another angle:

    If everything existed in a vacuum, it would be worthwhile to weigh “hot streaks” and “cold streaks.” When you account for the importance of targeting lower-owned guys in tourneys, however (and when you also account for the fact that lots of DFSers will target the hitters who “had a big game in the last couple days” while avoiding the hitters who “had a couple subpar recent games”), I usually feel it’s preferable to ignore the noise of “hot and cold.” If I can find a “cold” hitter in a great matchup, this is gold to me in tourneys. Similarly, if I can find a “hot” hitter in a tougher matchup, I generally view this as a great fade in tourneys.

    In a vacuum, hot/cold matters.

    In DFS, however – where game theory is as important as anything – hot/cold matters less than the ownership swings account for, which typically means (in tourneys, at least) you should take the opposite stance on hot/cold streaks that other DFSers take.

  • slayeratcp

    JMToWin hit it right on. I think the issue is balancing hot/cold streaks with salary fluctuations that are based on those streaks. In a sport that is highly variable, it’s hard to know when a player is on a streak and when that streak will end without being in the player’s head. Therefore, you have to take a player’s overall value relative to price to make decisions.

    For example, if Player A has a baseline value as a $3000 player but a recent hot streak has him priced at $3600, it’s best to shy away as an inevitable regression will happen at some point. Perhaps you miss one more great game, or two, or three, but more often you will not go down with the ship like so much of the field. If you could determine a player was hot but their price was where it should be or lower, that is the time to use said player. But the sites price based on recent performance, so by playing a player with a recent hit streak, you are almost always overpaying. Which takes us back to using players on cold streaks as theoretically they will be priced below value and regression back to their normal level would pay off for you.

  • Neiderman

    • 2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    I pick my NBA lineups based on the night before and who had an ice symbol or fire symbol…

  • Priptonite

    • Blogger of the Month

    @walkoff9 said...

    Anyone who says it’s a myth has never played baseball before.

    One day you feel like every swing you take you will hit the ball hard, and 2 weeks later you might not know how you ever got a hit before.

    This isn’t the question, though. The question is whether or not they are predictive. You can believe that hot streaks exist while at the same time believing they hold no predictive significance. Sometimes a guy is hot, sometimes a guy happened to run into a HR 3 games in a row. We can’t differentiate those two.

  • 77racing

    In baseball a HOT/COLD streak is only as good as that days pitcher!

  • TeamTwerk

    I’ve read that only after 5 hot games and not before can a batter on his next game be expected to outperform his current batting average ( hot streak at bats included).

  • hotpants

    Hot and cold streaks are just as real with professional athletes as they are with us as DFS players. Happens to literally everyone

  • ricky21slade

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @JMToWin said...

    I usually feel it’s preferable to ignore the noise of “hot and cold.” If I can find a “cold” hitter in a great matchup, this is gold to me in tourneys. Similarly, if I can find a “hot” hitter in a tougher matchup, I generally view this as a great fade in tourneys.

    I agree with JM 11/10.

    Regardless of whether you think a hot/cold streak has any predictive value for performance, recent performance affects the market. Recent performance is factored into most pricing algorithms. Good results today drive tomorrow’s prices. Also, good results today drive ownership percentages tomorrow, especially for name-brand players. This is worth considering for two reasons: (1) higher ownership numbers are also weighed in the pricing algos so price rises even faster than it probably should; and (2) we should be highly sensitive to ownership percentages (public sentiment and perceived value) when setting GPP lineups.

  • ricky21slade

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Priptonite said...

    The question is whether or not they are predictive.

    Hot/cold streaks are predictive to a certain extent, and I’ll tell you why. First, I don’t think that a streak really puts the performance into context. Hot/cold streak assumes that the game conditions are constant, and that’s not true. There are very few .300 hitters who go 1/3 every day. Baseball is a chess match, a game of adjustments. A “hot” hitter is either getting pitches that match his skill set, or making adjustments to excel where he had previously struggled. Here’s an example:

    Billy crushes fastballs in the spring. By mid-April, the book is out on him, and pitchers game-plan for Billy by pitching backwards. He gets behind in the count because he’s sitting dead red early in the count and watches off-speed stuff drop in for strikes. Once he’s behind, he’s flailing at soft stuff out of the zone. He opened “hot.” He looks “cold” because pitchers adjusted. Then, realizing that he can’t completely change his approach mid-season, he tweaks his game. He looks for pitches up in the zone early in the count. Now, the pitchers going backwards who make a mistake by leaving a change-up high in the zone are watching Billy crush again. The “hot” streak ensues until the pitching adjusts and the game goes on and on.

  • TPSC

    I pray people on this board continue to think a hot streak is an actual thing, rather than variance randomly arranged in a tricky pattern.

    The psychology of how one feels after a “hot streak” or “cold streak” is a post-hoc observation or justification rather than a determinant of future performance.

  • ihaveareputation

    • x2

      2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Here’s a good argument against using streaks as being predictive:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/strategy-on-streaky-players-dont-trust-the-streak/

  • rockinrileys

    I believe riding a hot streak in baseball is a good decision until the players price gets to high then it is time to jump off the ban wagon.

  • Galante118

    • Blogger of the Month

    A) hot and cold streaks are 100% real, the problem is how do you quantify it? Then you have to factor in price, match up, ownership etc…

    B) the BEST way to do this is using things like ld%, batted ball velocity, etc instead of results. A guy might go 0-4 but he smacked 3 lds and put one to the warning track, conversely someone can bloop there way into a 3-4 day with a few rbis and runs. The logic behind this is two fold. Obviously, the player hitting the ball hard is actually swinging the bat better and perhaps seeing it better, just unlucky. Because of his poor results his price may actually decrease as well as his ownership leaving you a huge edge.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @TPSC said...

    I pray people on this board continue to think a hot streak is an actual thing, rather than variance randomly arranged in a tricky pattern.

    The psychology of how one feels after a “hot streak” or “cold streak” is a post-hoc observation or justification rather than a determinant of future performance.

    I just hurt myself pressing the +1 so hard and so many times.
    Would do again.

  • njsum

    @Galante118 said...

    A) hot and cold streaks are 100% real, the problem is how do you quantify it? Then you have to factor in price, match up, ownership etc…

    B) the BEST way to do this is using things like ld%, batted ball velocity, etc instead of results. A guy might go 0-4 but he smacked 3 lds and put one to the warning track, conversely someone can bloop there way into a 3-4 day with a few rbis and runs. The logic behind this is two fold. Obviously, the player hitting the ball hard is actually swinging the bat better and perhaps seeing it better, just unlucky. Because of his poor results his price may actually decrease as well as his ownership leaving you a huge edge.

    This would seem to be a sensible approach to accounting for hot and cold streaks

  • dakimbell

    @TPSC said...

    I pray people on this board continue to think a hot streak is an actual thing, rather than variance randomly arranged in a tricky pattern.

    The psychology of how one feels after a “hot streak” or “cold streak” is a post-hoc observation or justification rather than a determinant of future performance.

    You must not have played sports much as a kid.

  • Brian_msbc

    Studies have show Hot/Cold Streaks are a myth. If a hot streak is due to a mechanical change or a genuine breakout, then that is different. But Lucas Duda getting “hot” is a myth. If he hits 25 homers… it stands to reason they will not each be equally distributed throughout the season. Its normal for 5 of them to be close together. Now, at the end of the two week period, it will seem like he just got really hot, but in reality, its just normal baseball.

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