I mean seriously. A “Punt” use to be just that, a PUNT! We were happy to get 10 or 15 points from a punt last year. Now we can’t even consider a “punt” unless it’s gonna give us 30 points. Last year people were taking down GPP’s with 1 and sometimes 2 people with single digit scores. Some nights the winning score was like 270, now you’re lucky to cash with a 300. There was even a viable NHL strategy last year of taking the lowest priced goalie, who didn’t even have a snowball’s chance in hell of playing, simply because at least you wouldn’t get negative points and you could spend up immensely elsewhere. Hell, in MLB many tourneys have been taken down by simply using the lowest priced SP and spending up everywhere else. Which will lead to me to my NBA LU theory, that it all comes down to your 2 low owned punts that absolutely no one else is on. The rest of your roster has 7 higher owned plays? That’s fine, as long as they are the right plays and you can separate yourself enough on your punts. I took a nice cash on an express slate with Bobby Portis on his 1st breakout night at 0.6% owned. Last 2 minutes of the game I went from a $20 cash to $1500, as a testament to ownership %.
Some people are right a little bit when they say that ownership % doesn’t matter and to just play the right player. They are totally right. There is nothing wrong with having an immensely chalky player in your LU as long as you’re convinced that they will extremely over-perform. Such as tonight with Matt Barnes or Jamal Crawford. I mean, seriously, do you really think either of them are going to match, let alone out-do their last game? Of course not, which should make them easy fades. Because of their perceived ownership because of last game, they need to outperform even more now which obviously is even more highly unlikely to happen. Although for each chalk play you need to counter with a sure to be low owned play somewhere else on your roster. Lesson learned? Avoid the obvious chalk plays unless you’re convinced you’re getting a MINIMUM 7x, since 6x just don’t cut it these days, ESPECIALLY for chalk. See Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes tonight.
Last year I was building LU’s just by what I thought were the best possible options at each position. I rarely took ownership % into account at all. Sometimes my insight from watching previous games would lead me to play a sleeper that not many were on and it worked out in my favor and I at least cashed. All I needed was that one differentiating player.
But at least, I would normally still cash more often than not. I would many times do 20-50 LU’s with Fantasycruncher and without ever thinking about ownership ‘s would more often than not at least recuperate 80 of my entry fees. Most nights I never got close to getting rich but I would at least have 1 or 2 LU’s get in the top 100 of a GPP and I would rarely get slaughtered for the night overall unless there was a 10k guy with a very random late scratch that I had way too much of for the night. I rarely would completely dud on all my LU’s for any particular night. This year, it’s not the same.
I don’t blame it on algorithms or scripts. It’s not that at all. Trust me, I looked at many winning LU’s last year. I’m sure I’m not the only one that remembers people winning with absolute ZEROS in their LU’s! Maybe not in full slates, although I’m sure I seen them, but in turbos at least, it was happening all the time. Hell, I seen many tourney winners that were either less than a month old or had less than 5 wins in 4 years. I swore up and down FD had bot players because hell, if a bot takes down a 100k top prize that’s just more money for the bottom line right? I seen many LU’s at the bottom of tourneys with crap players and people said no it was just someone’s placeholder LU or they won a ticket and never changed it. No way, if you seen those LU’s you would never had played them ever. Contrarian is contrarian but this much? Uh uh. Which was even stranger because they obviously weren’t placeholder LU’s, they were just WHACK AZZ LU’s! But what wins it most times? Whack azz LU’s! Shoot, look at the last few LU’s from the shot tonight. Not totally out of line but I don’t care what optimizer I had, those LU’s would not get money out of me.
I’ve just led myself to the opinion that I need to make myself play the opposite of what I think is the right play. Think about it, when is whatever you think the right play end up being the right play? NEVER! I watch a ton and a ton of basketball. I read, eat, sleep, research, eat, sleep BASKETBALL. I’ve realized that it just never, ever makes sense.
I guess you just do your best to avoid the chalk, find the sleepers, cross your fingers, and hope for the best!