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  • txdave41

    On Sunday, I experienced something that has not happened to me in over a month. I finally made more than my entry fees. Granted, it was only 5 bucks profit, but the psychological win was much needed.
    That gave me motivation to try a new strategy on Monday. It seems like my extreme failure in DFS is due to a disgusting combination of incredibly bad luck and contest selection. The win Sunday propelled me to try an old strategy. A bankroll strategy that I still think should work. But never does. The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50. With 5 different lineups, all I need is just one of those to do well and I should make more than $10. I put the lineup that I felt the most confident and researched in the GPP. Even if I lost everything one night, surely I could come out ahead more nights than not.

    But by the end of Monday night, I was stunned and left extremely frustrated again. The result was a next to worst case scenario, the worst being losing every single match. The GPP lineup bombed hard thanks to Detroit just being destroyed by Cleveland. Every lineup failed to hit the 300 mark except one. The 50/50. I scored 332 and won $3.80 ensuring that I enjoyed yet another night of losing most of my money. My best score was in the matchup that gave me the least return. The same score would have cashed in everything else except the quin which had a 333 cash line. The thing that aggravates me is I feel like one of the few people who try so hard at DFS, get good scores over 300 and yet still can’t even make back my entry fees. The frustration has never been this high in previous years, and I believe Fanduel’s rake increase and the tougher competition has made it pretty much impossible for bottom feeder guys like me to ever get ahead. I can’t do the $10 strategy and lose the majority of the time. $10 a night after a month is $300. No way I can afford that. Even when I tried scaling back to one buck a night, I still burned through $40 in 6 weeks.

    Is there a better strategy with contest selection that can get me ahead the majority of the time? Of course, I tried going straight up 50/50. Problem is some will cash, some will not. And because of the rake, I end up in the negative by the end of the night. I used to be good at league games which offer good return, but now every night, there is always one asshole in every league game that has the perfect lineup. Out of 10 ppl, you would think that it is just as likely that 10 ppl all have crappy lineups. Nope, not once.

  • hendry

    this may come off as a douchey answer but i dont mean it to. if you’re winning, your bankroll will grow. theres no way to grow a bankroll losing. running multiple lineups like that you are reducing variance but also fighting the rake pretty hard. obviously if you narrow your player pool and run 1 lineup or similar lineups losing days are likely going to hit you hard but winning days will be more profitable. it just comes down to winning often enough…which is hard to do.

  • bucherpsu08

    You only need 1 cash lineup IMO. So if you want to play 50/50s and double ups just enter the same lineup into both those. Then make 2 or 3 additional lineups and enter them into the same GPP. Spreading 5 different lineups over the different contest types like that doesn’t make much sense to me.

  • Njsum1

    I can tell you exactly what you’re doing wrong. And I can give you two solutions. I can’t guarantee it will make you profitable yet it will likely improve your results.

    1) 1 lineup..enter it into all contests. Simply take the lineup you feel most comfortable with and go with it.

    However, it seems you have difficulty picking your best lineup consistently. No one can make 5 lineups and pick the best 1 every time…if you can do this 2 out of 5 to 7 nights, you should be playing just 1 lineup. If you can do it no better than even odds, which in this case is 1 out of 5 (or lower) yet usually make 1 or 2 high scoring lines come the end of the night…you can go with approach 2.

    2) enter all five lineups into every type of contest. Unfortunately this will cost more money, so you’ll have to lower your stakes. This way you don’t have to guess which lineup will score the most or is best suited for which type of contest, and on nights where you can make 2 strong lineups out of 5 you should profit.

    Good luck

  • billholler

    @Njsum1 said...

    1) 1 lineup..enter it into all contests. Simply take the lineup you feel most comfortable with and go with it.

    That’s the short sweet and correct answer.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Njsum1 said...

    I can tell you exactly what you’re doing wrong. And I can give you two solutions. I can’t guarantee it will make you profitable yet it will likely improve your results.

    1) 1 lineup..enter it into all contests. Simply take the lineup you feel most comfortable with and go with it.

    However, it seems you have difficulty picking your best lineup consistently. No one can make 5 lineups and pick the best 1 every time…if you can do this 2 out of 5 to 7 nights, you should be playing just 1 lineup. If you can do it no better than even odds, which in this case is 1 out of 5 (or lower) yet usually make 1 or 2 high scoring lines come the end of the night…you can go with approach 2.

    2) enter all five lineups into every type of contest. Unfortunately this will cost more money, so you’ll have to lower your stakes. This way you don’t have to guess which lineup will score the most or is best suited for which type of contest, and on nights where you can make 2 strong lineups out of 5 you should profit.

    Good luck

    This strategy will end up losing you money over the long term if you dont adjust your cash game lineup for a large field gpp. You have to adjust your cash game lineup for large field GPP’s and vice-versa. That’s basic DFS 101. Then again you did preface your statement by saying you can’t guarantee it will make him profitable, so I guess you were right in that sense.

    EDIT: If you were convinced to employ this one lineup strategy, I’d construct a GPP lineup and put it in your cash games and not vice-versa…..

    If I were to give any advice, it would be to stop playing cash games…..

  • Njsum1

    @thedude404 said...

    This strategy will end up losing you money over the long term if you dont adjust your cash game lineup for a large field gpp. You have to adjust your cash game lineup for large field GPP’s and vice-versa. That’s basic DFS 101. Then again you did preface your statement by saying you can’t guarantee it will make him profitable, so I guess you were right in that sense.

    EDIT: If you were convinced to employ this one lineup strategy, I’d construct a GPP lineup and put it in your cash games and not vice-versa…..

    If I were to give any advice, it would be to stop playing cash games…..

    I wasn’t suggesting he make different types (ie cash, GPP, triple up, etc) of lineups and play them in different types of games. I was suggesting that if he couldn’t pick his best lineup with any more accuracy than the basic odds of 1 in 5 nights, he should simply make 5 lineups that he thinks will score a lot of points and enter each of them into the different types of contests he is currently playing.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Speaking for myself, even if it was profitable, that sounds like it would be the worst strategy in the world for my sanity. I cant even begin to comprehend the anxiety in that decision process and the potential “what ifs” by creating 5 separate lu’s and entering them in that range of contests.

    To answer your initial question, As a low stakes player that would break even and/or grind out a small profit, it has become much tougher – due to the smaller min payouts, higher rake, tougher competition, lineup sellers etc. I think it’s been the difference between me turning a small profit to going to a losing player. So, I’ve definitely seen my modest bankroll disappear, but of late I’ve started to have some more success again….I’ve scaled back play. Pretty much quit cash games. And since they started the quarter games i’ve taken to spending my few bucks on multi-entering that of late – it allows me to take more chances at a price that I can afford a cold streak and not feel too upset.
    So I do think it is much harder to turn a profit, but not impossible. It is more reliant on GPP’s and getting wins that offset the days of losing. Hopefully at some point I’ll win enough to move my buy-ins up, and not have to try to manage such a small bankroll….one can dream.
    Either way, it’s probably a good idea to try to reset expectations. I think that may have helped me a bit. I approached it as something fun that i liked to do, as opposed to worrying about expectations of profit.

    Also, worth suggesting, leave FanDuel, play elsewhere….FWIW FD is the site where my money seems to disappear the fastest. As a smaller stakes player, I’ve found more success in the variety on DK’s, and although I wasn’t a huge fan of FantasyDraft upon trying that out, it’s proven to be profitable the past couple months.

    Good luck turning it around.

  • BmoreClutch

    Playing only $10 and creating 5 LU’s is overkill. Focus on creating 1 LU for a while. I’d also just focus on 50/50 and double ups until you feel confident. It’s hard as hell to win any significant money in a $2 GPP. Quints are also pretty challenging.

    I also agree with TheRyanFlaherty. Try different sites. Sometimes that can turn things around for you. I was struggling with NBA on DK. Switched to FD about 3 weeks ago and have cashed consistently in cash and gpp.

  • Njsum1

    @BmoreClutch said...

    Playing only $10 and creating 5 LU’s is overkill

    Why? Some people only play $5 and max enter the QA with 20 lineups. I don’t see anything wrong with that.

  • BmoreClutch

    @Njsum1 said...

    Why? Some people only play $5 and max enter the QA with 20 lineups. I don’t see anything wrong with that.

    But the OP isn’t talking about the QA.

    “The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50.”

    I don’t really see a reason to have 5 different LU’s. I personally wouldn’t play quints or 10 man leagues. I just don’t think they’re worth it for the amount the OP is playing per day.

  • Olhausen

    It’s not impossible at all. This mlb season I turned my 80$ bankroll into over 600$ by playing nothing but quarter arcades all season. As it turns out I could have made a shit load more buy just even playing the solo shot but I decided against going up in rake early on in the season no matter what. This helped me get confident while building more lineup’s 12 a night and experimenting with different things until I found my sweet spot. This was my 3rd season playing mlb and after a slow April and early May I rarely had a losing week. Now next season I can go up in stakes and have confidence that it wasn’t just variance or at least most of it wasn’t. I definitely believe that I would not have been as good if I had went up in stakes early on as I would not have taken as many chances or trusted my gut as much. I really believe that I got better with each passing week last season by using this low stakes method.

  • emac

    @txdave41 said...

    Is there a better strategy with contest selection that can get me ahead the majority of the time? Of course, I tried going straight up 50/50. Problem is some will cash, some will not. And because of the rake, I end up in the negative by the end of the night. I used to be good at league games which offer good return, but now every night, there is always one asshole in every league game that has the perfect lineup. Out of 10 ppl, you would think that it is just as likely that 10 ppl all have crappy lineups. Nope, not once.

    As others have said, DFS is much more difficult now than it was in the glory days of the heavy advertisement only a few years ago.

    Yes, it is possible to diligently work a small bankroll into a somewhat substantial “bankroll” however things have dramatically changed with so many sources of information.

    In the “main” sports of NFL, NBA and MLB there is plenty of solid information available and if you are interested in subscribing to the “premium” content sites, there is a decent chance that you will find success, though by no means is it a guarantee of profitability.

    In my humblest of opinions as someone with two decades of experience in fantasy gaming, it is a long row to hoe.

    The most realistic endeavor is to approach things with an entertainment expense type of approach… yes, good things can happen, but it is pretty tricky to be seeing your “name in lights” consistently these days.

    Is it impossible? No… but most of the content you can find these days would have consistently “cashed” a couple seasons ago.

    If you have the proper approach of enjoying the puzzle strategy of DFS you will be far better off than trying to make it be a viable source of income.

    Back in the simpler days, most of us would have been thrilled to bring home a couple hundred dollars in our “friends and family” leagues or our survivor pools.

    Now, the information is plentiful and even the so called “fish” are well equipped to not make many mistakes and in the bigger tournaments we are facing gamers that can enter large quantities of lineups.

    Thinking of things from an entertainment perspective is the best way to go in my humble opinion.

    The “lesser” sports of PGA, NASCAR, EPL (aka soccer), NHL and the “draft” format contests do still have the potential to find the ever elusive “edge” than can make one a successful gamer.

    Of the serious gamers, probably two thirds have some sort of “premium” content backing them via the DFS sites or particularly for NFL since that is the MEGA sport – information from ESPN, FBG, CBS or another site that is above average as an information source.

    This makes things very tricky to become someone of note.

    How can we combat this? My approach is to think of things from an entertainment perspective… what was your “ROI” from the last four movies you saw in the theater… yeah, no cash unless you were in a focus group.

    What was your ROI playing in a softball or bowling league? What was the check you cashed for performing in your local theater group?

    Yeah, once again not much or zero…but did you have fun? That is the best way to approach daily fantasy sports.

    Most of the content you can see today would have been “competitive” a few years ago, but it is now the baseline and even the “fish” can be competitive with a subscription to solid information.

    Some will be victorious, most will lose…but again, did you have fun…that is the real measure.

    EMac

  • deejones49

    The bubble will burst soon almost impossible to beat 16% rake

  • BigA

    You have to be pretty much perfect playing low stakes. If youre doing good its a Slam dunk hundreds more are doing better leaving you on the bubble.

  • Kjwhalen77

    Run your “best” lineup in the $10 Single Entry GPP if that’s what you wanna risk per night. We’re all doing this for fun, right? If you’re not having fun in the strategy of making lineups or by having some skin in the games at night… what’s the point?

    If you’re doing this solely to make money… grinding out 50/50s H2H’s and 10 man leagues is a tough road to go. You’ve got to be consistently on the ball to wind up ahead and beat the rake. Not saying it’s not possible, but it requires a lot of discipline and skill.

  • tippycat

    Emac, well thought out reply!

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Emac, well said, as always. You summed it up perfectly for the majority of DFS’ers.

  • pinstripeblue

    354 cash line in the $2 double up last night,,,kind of tells you where things are going nowadays…

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @pinstripeblue said...

    354 cash line in the $2 double up last night,,,kind of tells you where things are going nowadays…

    The average cash line for the big $5 double up this year in NBA on FD is 299.11.

    Those only include the slates I play on though, I have missed about 5 slates I think.

    The previous 5 nights you needed scores of 300.6, 334.6, 283.5, 298.1 and 279.4.

    Last night was the second highest total you needed so far this year. With Milwaukee players being so chalky (Middleton was like 70% and Bledsoe was up near 85% in cash games) and having great games, it made the cash line that much higher.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @emac said...

    As others have said, DFS is much more difficult now than it was in the glory days of the heavy advertisement only a few years ago.

    Yes, it is possible to diligently work a small bankroll into a somewhat substantial “bankroll” however things have dramatically changed with so many sources of information.

    In the “main” sports of NFL, NBA and MLB there is plenty of solid information available and if you are interested in subscribing to the “premium” content sites, there is a decent chance that you will find success, though by no means is it a guarantee of profitability.

    In my humblest of opinions as someone with two decades of experience in fantasy gaming, it is a long row to hoe.

    The most realistic endeavor is to approach things with an entertainment expense type of approach… yes, good things can happen, but it is pretty tricky to be seeing your “name in lights” consistently these days.

    Is it impossible? No… but most of the content you can find these days would have consistently “cashed” a couple seasons ago.

    If you have the proper approach of enjoying the puzzle strategy of DFS you will be far better off than trying to make it be a viable source of income.

    Back in the simpler days, most of us would have been thrilled to bring home a couple hundred dollars in our “friends and family” leagues or our survivor pools.

    Now, the information is plentiful and even the so called “fish” are well equipped to not make many mistakes and in the bigger tournaments we are facing gamers that can enter large quantities of lineups.

    Thinking of things from an entertainment perspective is the best way to go in my humble opinion.

    The “lesser” sports of PGA, NASCAR, EPL (aka soccer), NHL and the “draft” format contests do still have the potential to find the ever elusive “edge” than can make one a successful gamer.

    Of the serious gamers, probably two thirds have some sort of “premium” content backing them via the DFS sites or particularly for NFL since that is the MEGA sport – information from ESPN, FBG, CBS or another site that is above average as an information source.

    This makes things very tricky to become someone of note.

    How can we combat this? My approach is to think of things from an entertainment perspective… what was your “ROI” from the last four movies you saw in the theater… yeah, no cash unless you were in a focus group.

    What was your ROI playing in a softball or bowling league? What was the check you cashed for performing in your local theater group?

    Yeah, once again not much or zero…but did you have fun? That is the best way to approach daily fantasy sports.

    Most of the content you can see today would have been “competitive” a few years ago, but it is now the baseline and even the “fish” can be competitive with a subscription to solid information.

    Some will be victorious, most will lose…but again, did you have fun…that is the real measure.

    EMac

    Interested to hear why you consider golf “lesser”? Taking NFL out of the equation I think golf is not far behind NBA and surpasses MLB from an interest standpoint. Obviously DK makes more from MLB due to it being daily but I would not be surprised if DK pays more out for golf than MLB on a yearly basis. In general golf contests are bigger than MLB there just are not as many. Golf for DK took off Ly and I expect it to be even bigger this year especially if one Tiger Woods can stay healthy. obviously DK has the milly makers for golf, albeit poor payout structure, but MLB doesn’t come close to offering a milly maker contest. There are many within the golf DFS world that feel DK could do a milly maker or well over a one million dollar prize pool weekly. As to content there is just as much available in golf as NBA and MLB. As to the edge, there will always be a edge in golf due to the cut regardless of how much content is available.

  • mambaland

    the thing people usually do not mention is once you go over $600 net for the year ending you get hit with a 1099 so now what profit you did have to will probably have to pay 35 % of it back in taxes and start over the next year. Rake and Taxes are hard to beat. One month i put same lineup 5x into gpp and not sure i hit anything worthy. Next month i put 5 diff lineups in a GPP each night and finally hit on one of them and put me back at about even for the month…

  • moped_jones

    The best ways to profit is to play cash games. It sucks and you won’t get rich but you have a much better chance of cashing in them vs. GPP.

    That being said, I’d rather lose money playing GPP’s than trying to build up my bankroll slowly through cash games. It makes DFS more enjoyable to me.

  • Yahoo302

    @moped_jones said...

    The best ways to profit is to play cash games. It sucks and you won’t get rich but you have a much better chance of cashing in them vs. GPP.

    That being said, I’d rather lose money playing GPP’s than trying to build up my bankroll slowly through cash games. It makes DFS more enjoyable to me.

    This is completely and utterly false.
    Yes, in cash games games you’re more likely to cash.
    But you need a high win rate in order to achieve minimal ROI.
    In GPPs however, one top 1% night and and you’re set for the year.

    My advice : game select with the intention of maximizing your ROI.
    gl

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Yahoo302 said...

    This is completely and utterly false.
    Yes, in cash games games you’re more likely to cash.
    But you need a high win rate in order to achieve minimal ROI.
    In GPPs however, one top 1% night and and you’re set for the year.

    My advice : game select with the intention of maximizing your ROI.
    gl

    Honestly,

    Neither of you are wrong. One point I think everyone forgets here is to find what YOU are best at. Some have a mind for cash games while others for the GPP strategy. Personally, I built my bankroll on cash games and it continues to increase mostly on my success in that area, while I’ve mostly struggled in GPP’s. I have other friends who are MUCH better at GPP’s while gave up on cash games.

    Everyone thinks differently. Their approach is different. Find what is best for you by trying both, at very low amounts.

  • moped_jones

    @Yahoo302 said...

    This is completely and utterly false.
    Yes, in cash games games you’re more likely to cash.
    But you need a high win rate in order to achieve minimal ROI.
    In GPPs however, one top 1% night and and you’re set for the year.

    My advice : game select with the intention of maximizing your ROI.
    gl

    lol, you say it’s false then in your very next sentence you say why it’s true. If you are more likely to cash you are more likely to profit.

    Obviously if you win a GPP (or place highly) you are in excellent shape, but if the OP had done that already I doubt he would have started this thread. The “one big win a year” is a dangerously stupid business model.

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