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  • txdave41

    On Sunday, I experienced something that has not happened to me in over a month. I finally made more than my entry fees. Granted, it was only 5 bucks profit, but the psychological win was much needed.
    That gave me motivation to try a new strategy on Monday. It seems like my extreme failure in DFS is due to a disgusting combination of incredibly bad luck and contest selection. The win Sunday propelled me to try an old strategy. A bankroll strategy that I still think should work. But never does. The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50. With 5 different lineups, all I need is just one of those to do well and I should make more than $10. I put the lineup that I felt the most confident and researched in the GPP. Even if I lost everything one night, surely I could come out ahead more nights than not.

    But by the end of Monday night, I was stunned and left extremely frustrated again. The result was a next to worst case scenario, the worst being losing every single match. The GPP lineup bombed hard thanks to Detroit just being destroyed by Cleveland. Every lineup failed to hit the 300 mark except one. The 50/50. I scored 332 and won $3.80 ensuring that I enjoyed yet another night of losing most of my money. My best score was in the matchup that gave me the least return. The same score would have cashed in everything else except the quin which had a 333 cash line. The thing that aggravates me is I feel like one of the few people who try so hard at DFS, get good scores over 300 and yet still can’t even make back my entry fees. The frustration has never been this high in previous years, and I believe Fanduel’s rake increase and the tougher competition has made it pretty much impossible for bottom feeder guys like me to ever get ahead. I can’t do the $10 strategy and lose the majority of the time. $10 a night after a month is $300. No way I can afford that. Even when I tried scaling back to one buck a night, I still burned through $40 in 6 weeks.

    Is there a better strategy with contest selection that can get me ahead the majority of the time? Of course, I tried going straight up 50/50. Problem is some will cash, some will not. And because of the rake, I end up in the negative by the end of the night. I used to be good at league games which offer good return, but now every night, there is always one asshole in every league game that has the perfect lineup. Out of 10 ppl, you would think that it is just as likely that 10 ppl all have crappy lineups. Nope, not once.

  • Yahoo302

    @moped_jones said...

    lol, you say it’s false then in your very next sentence you say why it’s true. If you are more likely to cash you are more likely to profit.

    Obviously if you win a GPP you are in excellent shape, but if it were that easy to win a GPP there’s be no DFS.

    More likely to cash doesn’t equal profitability in the long run. If you can’t understand that… well…

  • moped_jones

    @Yahoo302 said...

    More likely to cash doesn’t equal profitability in the long run. If you can’t understand that… well…

    Neither does losing every night and hoping for a big win, lol. That is dangerously stupid.

  • thugologist

    @moped_jones said...

    The “one big win a year” is a dangerously stupid business model.

    Yeah you could easily go your entire DFS career never hitting a GPP. I don’t understand the logic when people say this.

  • moped_jones

    @thugologist said...

    Yeah you could easily go your entire DFS career never hitting a GPP. I don’t understand the logic when people say this.

    Or when you finally do win one……you tie with a bunch of other people like I did.

  • Njsum1

    @Yahoo302 said...

    In GPPs however, one top 1% night and and you’re set for the year.

    I’m not going to take sides here on what is better for a bankroll, cash games or tourneys, as it probably depends on the player, so I’ll stay out of that argument.

    However, the quoted comment is completely false. Top 1% pays roughly 6x. One 6x finish will absolutely not leave you set for the year, yet alone the month, maybe a week or two. What you need is a top 30-ish finish in a larger field GPP. Which is somewhere around the top .05 to .1%.

  • moped_jones

    @Njsum1 said...

    However, the quoted comment is completely false.

    It’s funny you say that b/c the person you responded to said my comment was “completely and utterly false”, lol.

    As for overall strategy, when I am desperate to stop depositing I will have luck by playing both cash games and GPP’s. While I believe cash games are the best way to profit……..I could never give up the “hope” of taking down a large life changing GPP. That’s what makes DFS fun for me.

  • dogplayer

    @mambaland said...

    the thing people usually do not mention is once you go over $600 net for the year ending you get hit with a 1099 so now what profit you did have to will probably have to pay 35 % of it back in taxes and start over the next year. Rake and Taxes are hard to beat. One month i put same lineup 5x into gpp and not sure i hit anything worthy. Next month i put 5 diff lineups in a GPP each night and finally hit on one of them and put me back at about even for the month…

    I believe you only get the 1099 tax form if you win over $600 on a single hit. I wish I were lucky enough to find out.

  • tarheel66

    The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50. With 5 different lineups, all I need is just one of those to do well and I should make more than $10. I put the lineup that I felt the most confident and researched in the GPP. Even if I lost everything.

    Question if you hit the 50/50 you only double your $2 and make $4 so your comment about I should make more than $10 is FALSE, you will never win with that strategy unless you hit the GPP

  • Yahoo302

    I obviously was not being very clear.
    My intention was to make it known that everything should be viewed through the lens of ROI.
    All because you’re more likely to cash in 50/50s on a given night, that does not mean you are capable of sustaining a 56% win rate.
    And even if you do beat the rake, your ROI can be 1%-2%. So you are risking alot to hopefully break even or make a 2% ROI.
    However, playing leagues/multipliers/gpps; no you wont be in the green as often as you’d be by playing cash games, but you dont need to be. Because the return on the nights you do win, are much higher than the 80 cents on the dollar you make through cash games.
    Again, my point is to help OP realize that DFS is a investment and should be viewed as so.
    Measure risk vs. reward. ROI ROI ROI ROI ROI ROI ROI ROI
    GL!

  • sethayates

    @mambaland said...

    the thing people usually do not mention is once you go over $600 net for the year ending you get hit with a 1099 so now what profit you did have to will probably have to pay 35 % of it back in taxes and start over the next year. Rake and Taxes are hard to beat. One month i put same lineup 5x into gpp and not sure i hit anything worthy. Next month i put 5 diff lineups in a GPP each night and finally hit on one of them and put me back at about even for the month…

    While it is true that rake makes it hard to be profitable, you only pay taxes when you are actually profitable. Technically, you should be reporting all income from DFS regardless of whether you get a 1099 or not. The threshold for DFS sites to report your income to the IRS is $600 though, as you said.

    Taxes aren’t stopping anyone from being profitable and they certainly have nothing to do with rake. Right now, I’m sitting at $3,151.52 in profit for the year per the RG DFS Analyzer. My day job already has me in the 25% tax bracket so I’ll owe at least 25% on my DFS winnings. While it will sting to pay ($3151.52 x .25 = 787.88) $787 to the IRS that can’t stop being from being profitable. There is never a situation where taxes alone can turn a profitable player into a loser. The only thing that even comes close is if you hit huge one year in December and then lose the same amount the following year in January. You would still have to pay the taxes from the previous year even though the following year you are at a net loss.

  • mambaland

    @dogplayer said...

    I believe you only get the 1099 tax form if you win over $600 on a single hit. I wish I were lucky enough to find out.

    no its net for year not in a night…that is scratch offs LOL

  • mambaland

    Seth..that is sort of what i was saying on a smaller scale…one year i won 1000 and had to pay tax on that so it knocked my net down to about 700…the next year i lost about 1000 and so what should be break even for 2 years was a $300 loss….that is the only tax i play each year fwiw. I think the elephant in the room most do not want to acknowledge is the small amount of people who actually do make money…that is why you see players each year you have never heard of and do not see guys from the previous years around as much. I often wonder if you go back to the 1st year FD or DK had big events in vegas etc which of the players who won those trips are even around today

  • dogplayer

    @mambaland said...

    no its net for year not in a night…that is scratch offs LOL

    Well, as my screen name states I mainly play greyhound races, and we used to only get taxed after a $600+ hit. Now we only get nailed by the IRS if our winnings are 300x the wager amount. But I’m glad I made you LOL.

  • KlairVoyant

    • 626

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    IMO, you should keep it as simple as possible. Like many have already said, cut down the number of lineups you are making to one. When making that one lineup, don’t even worry about designing the lineup for specific contest type. Just try and make the best lineup you can and put it in what ever game format you want. As far as game selection goes I would probably start with a robust mix. I would be playing everything from 50/50’s to DU and 3x to H2H and GPP. For DraftKings it would probably look something like this… four entries into four different $0.25 GPP’s. two $1 H2H’s, two $1 50/50’s, two $1 Du’s, two $1 triple ups, and last maybe put $1 into a big single entry gpp. You should repeat this exact mix for a few weeks and then use the RotoGrinders DFS analyzer tool to figure out which game format you are doing best in. Then, slowly move some of the money from your lowest observed ROI game to your Highest observed ROI game. Now, to answer your original question. It is still possible to win substantial amount of money off just low limit games, aka $2 and below. The short answer is yes. However, it is rare. Even though you would be playing low buy in games, you would still need to be betting a large amount to end up winning a reasonable sum of money over the course of the season at those buy in levels. Don’t give up hope though!

  • scharfjack704

    What are your recommendations on building lineups for someone who doesn’t have access to premium rotogrinders?

  • SISguys

    I think the best answer to this is you simply need to spend more time on looking where exactly and what exactly you are throwing your money into. Just as if you are investing in the markets.

    If you are only putting together 1 to 2 lineups a night, heck, now a days even 5 seems small, you should be playing primarily cash games and single entry tourneys. These huge tournaments where the pros can mass enter 150 entries, I don’t think people understand how much variance they take out compared to your single entry or two. And I understand the argument of “but what if I don’t put my lineup into that tournament and it hits for big”. I’m with you there.

    In my case, and it’s not perfect. I know I always don’t look where my money is going and the distribution between game types isn’t profitable. But bare with me. The nights where I only have time to put in one lineup, I tend to skew more towards a cash game lineup, enter 80% into cash games, 1… 1 single entry into whatever major gauruntee the site is offering and then the rest into single entry tournaments.

    Other nights where I have the time to sit down and throw together at least 25+ lineups, those are the nights where I don’t mind playing with the big boys. But I do agree with the notion that many have already stated and that is to pick the 1 lineup you are most comfortable with and use that for all cash games.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    all these one lineup guys have me here…

  • manBEAST

    As a microgrinder myself I think you need to be playing small stakes on as many different sites as possible, as our options are now limited and you need to be on top of your game daily to access the so called edge, running different lineups on each site will give you a better DFS experience than losing on the same site every night. As you get better at your process you can win on a different site every night and every once in a while multiple sites at once!

    If you are entering the $1 and $2 level make sure to play the single entry then throw that in the arcade for fun, but you probably have better luck on a lower limit site like Yahoo, I play DK and FD for fun but 95% of my DFS profits over the years have came from all the other sites where I have an edge.

  • TroyW

    I have a steamroller strategy I use for NHL and NBA. And coming soon to 2k18 MLB. I started at wagering 1.50 a day and am over 3.25 in NHL and 2.25 in NBA. Let me know if you want more info

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @TroyW said...

    I have a steamroller strategy I use for NHL and NBA. And coming soon to 2k18 MLB. I started at wagering 1.50 a day and am over 3.25 in NHL and 2.25 in NBA. Let me know if you want more info

    I feel you there. My only issue is “moving up” when I “win” and then losing all my quarters again. Everybody loves building lineups but it’s nice to get something out of it. Not that GPPs were good before but now it’s really tough profiting with 1.5x min cashes and all that other nonsense. It’s part of the reason I’m still playing quarters. All their “large” GPPs are 2x min cash at least and I like more lineups.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    ^
    I’ve actually started moving down to the quarter arcade on DK’s too for that same reason.
    The bump in percentage paid doesn’t seem to offset the .5 lost. I’ve moved to spending a couple bucks multi-entering the quarter instead of spending it in the $1 GPP’s. Give myself more chances and have the higher min payout.

    I miss on FD when not only was 2.5 standard at about 17% paid, but some smaller GPP’s had x3 as the minimum payout.
    I know some on here would laugh at the idea, but for someone such as myself that extra .50-1 cash a few times each week could be the difference in staying a float or making a couple bucks, to being anlosinv player.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @TheRyanFlaherty said...

    I know some on here would laugh at the idea, but for someone such as myself that extra .50-1 cash a few times each week could be the difference in staying a float or making a couple bucks, to being anlosinv player.

    That’s as true as can be! I kind of hate when I get in the second/third/fourth ones that pay like $0.30 as a min though. Even the SE stuff has that bad pay structure which really sucks! Usually if I’m playing in the $3 and up I at least play 2 lineups so if one doesn’t cash it hurts. I think the 1.5x min cashes are the biggest hit to ROI/profitability.

    I’ll continue playing quarters because I like more than 1 lineup, I like 2x min cashes, and in the grand scheme of things I think you get a little riskier with only quarters on the line. I just wish we could get some bigger NHL prize pools so I could play those every night instead of bball because of the false allure of winning more than $50. I say “false” because I’m never taking down a NBA GPP with some of the crazy throw it at the wall and hope it sticks lineups winning there.

  • txdave41

    Thanks for the replies everyone. Good to see different perspectives on the issue. I think the majority of my problem is definitive game selection. I tried my strategy again on Friday and it was a disaster. Here is how it broke out:

    $2 50/50 – 285 score, complete bust, nearly last place
    $2 10 man league – 325 score, nearly last place!
    $2 quintupble – 355 score, only a few points outside the cash line, argh!
    $2 double up – 353 score, cashed.
    $2 GPP – 288 score, nowhere near the cash line.

    So even though I had some pretty good scores over 350, I still lost most of my money!

    Game selection continues to plague me as my #1 problem. I decided to make these adjustments:

    1. No more league games. Screw em. The competition is fucking ridiculous. I needed a 390 score to win that league game. It baffles me how there is always one guy with a perfect lineup in them, but I’m not going to bother anymore.

    2. No more quin games. Cash line is just too high and it is just so aggravating to be right outside the cash line of these.

    3. Play only two lineups, 80-90% cash and the rest in GPP.

    So I tried number #3 last night. Spent $3 in 50/50s and $2 on the NBA Block. I easily cashed the 50/50s but the same lineup fell short of the GPP. I walked away with a crappy 40 cent net profit. Better than losing, but how can anyone have a positive monthly ROI with such pathetic returns on $1 and $2 games? I never once had a net profit day in previous years that came out to less than a dollar.

  • joshshafe

    Good luck with change in game selection, hopefully it helps you out.

    What has worked for me so far in NBA this year is by playing 3 lineups a night, $6 or $7 total, and making sure I enter the $1 or $2 Contest games on DK (they usually have about 118 people in them, max entry 3) with at least 2 of my lineups. I have noticed that the cash lines are usually a little higher, but the score you need to win is significantly less than you would need in any other GPP. On a few occasions this year, I have won those $X Contests…the reason that is important is because when I won those contests, I had a MUCH larger ROI than in the same GPP I entered:

    10/17/17
    Score: 311.00
    $1 Contest (237) – $40.00
    And-One GPP – $8.00

    10/30/17
    Score: 300.50
    $1 Contest (118) – $22.00
    And-One – $12.00

    11/10/17
    Score: 324.50
    $2 Contest (297) – $100.00
    *Didn’t play a GPP here on this slate because my ROI had been trash on GPP’s so I figured, let’s scale up the $ Contest games and then remove the GPP…won’t make that mistake again.

    This strategy has worked for me and is something new I started doing this year. If you’re in a slump, try it, it may work out for you.

    I have tried cash games a few times this year and have not been profitable. I just realize that I take too many risks in my plays and it doesn’t work out in cash for me since the lines seem to be so high (the few times I’ve played, they’ve been even higher than the GPP cash line).

  • FkCoolers

    You can bankroll build through single entry and 3 max entry at the low stakes.

    A person probably can’t bankroll build by playing the massive field $1/3 type stuff because you simply won’t realize your equity often enough and the variance needed to move to the top of those fields is pretty crazy.

    I’d recommend doing single entry double ups and single entry and 3 max GPP to work up a bankroll of $2000+

    After that, still continue to play those but then mix in stabs at other stuff like $20 3 max and $50 single entry to try to make the next leap.

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