On Sunday, I experienced something that has not happened to me in over a month. I finally made more than my entry fees. Granted, it was only 5 bucks profit, but the psychological win was much needed.
That gave me motivation to try a new strategy on Monday. It seems like my extreme failure in DFS is due to a disgusting combination of incredibly bad luck and contest selection. The win Sunday propelled me to try an old strategy. A bankroll strategy that I still think should work. But never does. The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50. With 5 different lineups, all I need is just one of those to do well and I should make more than $10. I put the lineup that I felt the most confident and researched in the GPP. Even if I lost everything one night, surely I could come out ahead more nights than not.
But by the end of Monday night, I was stunned and left extremely frustrated again. The result was a next to worst case scenario, the worst being losing every single match. The GPP lineup bombed hard thanks to Detroit just being destroyed by Cleveland. Every lineup failed to hit the 300 mark except one. The 50/50. I scored 332 and won $3.80 ensuring that I enjoyed yet another night of losing most of my money. My best score was in the matchup that gave me the least return. The same score would have cashed in everything else except the quin which had a 333 cash line. The thing that aggravates me is I feel like one of the few people who try so hard at DFS, get good scores over 300 and yet still can’t even make back my entry fees. The frustration has never been this high in previous years, and I believe Fanduel’s rake increase and the tougher competition has made it pretty much impossible for bottom feeder guys like me to ever get ahead. I can’t do the $10 strategy and lose the majority of the time. $10 a night after a month is $300. No way I can afford that. Even when I tried scaling back to one buck a night, I still burned through $40 in 6 weeks.
Is there a better strategy with contest selection that can get me ahead the majority of the time? Of course, I tried going straight up 50/50. Problem is some will cash, some will not. And because of the rake, I end up in the negative by the end of the night. I used to be good at league games which offer good return, but now every night, there is always one asshole in every league game that has the perfect lineup. Out of 10 ppl, you would think that it is just as likely that 10 ppl all have crappy lineups. Nope, not once.