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  • txdave41

    On Sunday, I experienced something that has not happened to me in over a month. I finally made more than my entry fees. Granted, it was only 5 bucks profit, but the psychological win was much needed.
    That gave me motivation to try a new strategy on Monday. It seems like my extreme failure in DFS is due to a disgusting combination of incredibly bad luck and contest selection. The win Sunday propelled me to try an old strategy. A bankroll strategy that I still think should work. But never does. The strategy is to play 10 bucks a night. At $2 entry fees, I play a GPP, quin, double up, 10 man league game, and 50/50. With 5 different lineups, all I need is just one of those to do well and I should make more than $10. I put the lineup that I felt the most confident and researched in the GPP. Even if I lost everything one night, surely I could come out ahead more nights than not.

    But by the end of Monday night, I was stunned and left extremely frustrated again. The result was a next to worst case scenario, the worst being losing every single match. The GPP lineup bombed hard thanks to Detroit just being destroyed by Cleveland. Every lineup failed to hit the 300 mark except one. The 50/50. I scored 332 and won $3.80 ensuring that I enjoyed yet another night of losing most of my money. My best score was in the matchup that gave me the least return. The same score would have cashed in everything else except the quin which had a 333 cash line. The thing that aggravates me is I feel like one of the few people who try so hard at DFS, get good scores over 300 and yet still can’t even make back my entry fees. The frustration has never been this high in previous years, and I believe Fanduel’s rake increase and the tougher competition has made it pretty much impossible for bottom feeder guys like me to ever get ahead. I can’t do the $10 strategy and lose the majority of the time. $10 a night after a month is $300. No way I can afford that. Even when I tried scaling back to one buck a night, I still burned through $40 in 6 weeks.

    Is there a better strategy with contest selection that can get me ahead the majority of the time? Of course, I tried going straight up 50/50. Problem is some will cash, some will not. And because of the rake, I end up in the negative by the end of the night. I used to be good at league games which offer good return, but now every night, there is always one asshole in every league game that has the perfect lineup. Out of 10 ppl, you would think that it is just as likely that 10 ppl all have crappy lineups. Nope, not once.

  • txdave41

    I’m happy to report that I’ve made a small but positive profit for 3 days in a row now! The strategy of playing 90% 50/50s and 10% on single entry GPPs appears to be working so far. As long as I keep trending up even at a buck a day, I will enjoy DFS again.

  • draped

    Personally, I wouldn’t put too much stock in three day streaks. It’s hard to tell what is working/not working from small time spans due to the inherent variance of DFS. Sometimes you’ve got to trust the process and reevaluate after a longer period. I do think there is a lot of good advice in this thread that I learned from others long ago and have helped to make me a profitable DFS player today.

    One piece of advice from this thread that I feel has helped me improve the most is making only one lineup per day when you are first trying to improve. If you cannot make one solid lineup everyday then why would u be able to make 2 or 3 or how ever many. This is a trap that is easy to fall into. You can’t make decisions necessary to make a single lineup so instead you make two sub-optimal lineups.

    I think once you learn how to make one lineup (whether it be contrarian or cash or w/e) then you can start getting closer to understanding the optimal 2v2, 3v3, etc swaps to make a second lineup, third lineup, etc.

    EDIT: I still build one lineup most days, just bc I feel like it helps me to constantly improve.

  • thugologist

    @FkCoolers said...

    You can bankroll build through single entry and 3 max entry at the low stakes.

    A person probably can’t bankroll build by playing the massive field $1/3 type stuff because you simply won’t realize your equity often enough and the variance needed to move to the top of those fields is pretty crazy.

    I’d recommend doing single entry double ups and single entry and 3 max GPP to work up a bankroll of $2000+

    After that, still continue to play those but then mix in stabs at other stuff like $20 3 max and $50 single entry to try to make the next leap.

    tru

  • phatosas

    I came third in a $2 (20 entry max) GPP early on in the NFL season and won $2500. I have been chasing that type of win ever since. I don’t play double ups because my worst nightmare is getting a very high score and winning only twice my entry fee. I have been spending about 100 dollars every week in the NFL hoping to do it again. Some weeks I break even but other times I lose about half my payroll. I started dabbling in NBA tournaments but I am terrible at it. It is also easier to lose money when you play everyday. I am not going to play NBA again and I stepping away from daily fantasy once the NFL season ends.

    This weekend I am taking a different strategy, rather that invest my bankroll on multiple teams, I am playing 3 teams in the $33 dollar tournament. I would focus on those teams and make sure I am 100% in on every player. If one of those teams hit, I would have a profitable weekend but I think it is better to be focused rather than have multiple teams and having dart throws. I would probably play 5-10 teams in $2 entry tournaments just to see how my other plays go but my focus would be on those 3 teams.

  • Mikesp215

    @emac said...

    As others have said, DFS is much more difficult now than it was in the glory days of the heavy advertisement only a few years ago.

    Yes, it is possible to diligently work a small bankroll into a somewhat substantial “bankroll” however things have dramatically changed with so many sources of information.

    In the “main” sports of NFL, NBA and MLB there is plenty of solid information available and if you are interested in subscribing to the “premium” content sites, there is a decent chance that you will find success, though by no means is it a guarantee of profitability.

    In my humblest of opinions as someone with two decades of experience in fantasy gaming, it is a long row to hoe.

    The most realistic endeavor is to approach things with an entertainment expense type of approach… yes, good things can happen, but it is pretty tricky to be seeing your “name in lights” consistently these days.

    Is it impossible? No… but most of the content you can find these days would have consistently “cashed” a couple seasons ago.

    If you have the proper approach of enjoying the puzzle strategy of DFS you will be far better off than trying to make it be a viable source of income.

    Back in the simpler days, most of us would have been thrilled to bring home a couple hundred dollars in our “friends and family” leagues or our survivor pools.

    Now, the information is plentiful and even the so called “fish” are well equipped to not make many mistakes and in the bigger tournaments we are facing gamers that can enter large quantities of lineups.

    Thinking of things from an entertainment perspective is the best way to go in my humble opinion.

    The “lesser” sports of PGA, NASCAR, EPL (aka soccer), NHL and the “draft” format contests do still have the potential to find the ever elusive “edge” than can make one a successful gamer.

    Of the serious gamers, probably two thirds have some sort of “premium” content backing them via the DFS sites or particularly for NFL since that is the MEGA sport – information from ESPN, FBG, CBS or another site that is above average as an information source.

    This makes things very tricky to become someone of note.

    How can we combat this? My approach is to think of things from an entertainment perspective… what was your “ROI” from the last four movies you saw in the theater… yeah, no cash unless you were in a focus group.

    What was your ROI playing in a softball or bowling league? What was the check you cashed for performing in your local theater group?

    Yeah, once again not much or zero…but did you have fun? That is the best way to approach daily fantasy sports.

    Most of the content you can see today would have been “competitive” a few years ago, but it is now the baseline and even the “fish” can be competitive with a subscription to solid information.

    Some will be victorious, most will lose…but again, did you have fun…that is the real measure.

    EMac

    I needed this because I have contemplated about signing up for premium content to get a better edge only because I enjoy the whole strategy behind dfs I’m on a four day losing streak rite now but I’m excited everyday to find out what I did wrong to adjust my strategy luckily all my buy ins were low but I want to become great in dfs because I love basketball and dfs and winning

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @emac said...

    As others have said, DFS is much more difficult now than it was in the glory days of the heavy advertisement only a few years ago.

    Yes, it is possible to diligently work a small bankroll into a somewhat substantial “bankroll” however things have dramatically changed with so many sources of information.

    In the “main” sports of NFL, NBA and MLB there is plenty of solid information available and if you are interested in subscribing to the “premium” content sites, there is a decent chance that you will find success, though by no means is it a guarantee of profitability.

    In my humblest of opinions as someone with two decades of experience in fantasy gaming, it is a long row to hoe.

    The most realistic endeavor is to approach things with an entertainment expense type of approach… yes, good things can happen, but it is pretty tricky to be seeing your “name in lights” consistently these days.

    Is it impossible? No… but most of the content you can find these days would have consistently “cashed” a couple seasons ago.

    If you have the proper approach of enjoying the puzzle strategy of DFS you will be far better off than trying to make it be a viable source of income.

    Back in the simpler days, most of us would have been thrilled to bring home a couple hundred dollars in our “friends and family” leagues or our survivor pools.

    Now, the information is plentiful and even the so called “fish” are well equipped to not make many mistakes and in the bigger tournaments we are facing gamers that can enter large quantities of lineups.

    Thinking of things from an entertainment perspective is the best way to go in my humble opinion.

    The “lesser” sports of PGA, NASCAR, EPL (aka soccer), NHL and the “draft” format contests do still have the potential to find the ever elusive “edge” than can make one a successful gamer.

    Of the serious gamers, probably two thirds have some sort of “premium” content backing them via the DFS sites or particularly for NFL since that is the MEGA sport – information from ESPN, FBG, CBS or another site that is above average as an information source.

    This makes things very tricky to become someone of note.

    How can we combat this? My approach is to think of things from an entertainment perspective… what was your “ROI” from the last four movies you saw in the theater… yeah, no cash unless you were in a focus group.

    What was your ROI playing in a softball or bowling league? What was the check you cashed for performing in your local theater group?

    Yeah, once again not much or zero…but did you have fun? That is the best way to approach daily fantasy sports.

    Most of the content you can see today would have been “competitive” a few years ago, but it is now the baseline and even the “fish” can be competitive with a subscription to solid information.

    Some will be victorious, most will lose…but again, did you have fun…that is the real measure.

    EMac

    Look, I’m not going to read another word here, because this is it.

    There is so much misinformation in this thread, that I don’t even want to spend the time trying to correct anything. EMac has it, and reading anything else in this thread will probably set you back light years, well, what I’ve read anyway. Taking what EMac said to heart will change your DFS perspective overnight, and for the better!

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    I started this past January with a $25 bankroll (on FD) and, after an initial learning phase where I was barely breaking even, I have since steadily grown my bankroll to $350 despite my largest single-contest win being a mere $30. I only play a handful of lineups in $1 GPP’s (90% of the time) or $2 double-ups (10% of the time) per night, never more than 3 lineups or $3 per night.

    I’m far from an expert, but my personal takeaways have been:

    1) Focus your time on building one or two lineups that you feel good about (i.e. without too much reliance on other people’s projections or recommendations) rather than mindlessly bulk-entering many lineups.

    2) Only play the sports you understand and enjoy following —- you’ll have more fun and be more profitable

    3) Contest selection is key —- focus on contest types that you tend to have success with, but I prefer small GPP’s that pay out a relatively high % of entrants (e.g. ~25%)

    4) Don’t chase losses or increase your nightly stakes after winning —- stick to the plan

  • FkCoolers

    @thugologist said...

    Curious, do you recommend purely double ups and those GPP options or would you also do 50/50 and h2h?

    I think you can also mix in H2H format. The huge field double up get max entered by many good players so the cash lines are always higher than single entry double ups – that’s why I was recommending just single entry doubles to get started on bankroll building.

  • Throwittome

    Just my 2 pennies. If you want to learn how to make better lineups then follow the pros. There is a blogger on here that everyday he plays 2 pros and compares his lineups to theirs. His goal is to make his lineup as close to theirs as possible. He plays each of them in a H2H everyday. After reading his blogs I began doing that and it has helped me make better decisions in the last month. I haven’t been playing anything besides the pros so I can practice but I am almost ready to go back into the lobby. Since I began doing this my scores which were normally in the 225-250 now has me scoring around 300 every night

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