NBA FORUM

Comments

  • Bknetsfan19

    I’m very new to dfs and I hear alot of people saying to research a ton of different things to help you create a lineup. But isn’t it pretty much all luck at the end of the day? Obviously you should take chalk against bad matchups and don’t be dumb making picks, but nobody knows how any game will go and which players will have the big nights, am I right?

  • lastairbender

    If you think this, pick 10 people and play h2h against them for two weeks and track the results. I’m sure it would be easy to get some volunteers. I’m down if you play on DK

  • lloydjv1

    When i started out I pretty much wasted time and salary cap on the big name players. I do hours of research every day just to break even, depending upon how many games I play and which format. As most, if you are decent you can make some back on 50/50’s, but the real money is generally in the top 15% of tournament GPP’s. At least this is from my experience.

    I have placed fairly high in several tournaments, but i am not consistent enough yet on my own to just pick a random LU. I use optimizers, O/U expectancy, injury reports and minutes on the floor to determine which is my best choice for a position and the salary available. Some of it of course is just dumb luck or bad luck. Last night I had Kawhi in most of my lineups and had he gotten me at least 20FP in each i would have made money. As it was i came out on the losing end and that is the ying and yang of fantasy sports.

  • tvsfrink

    @lloydjv1 said...

    Some of it of course is just dumb luck or bad luck. Last night I had Kawhi in most of my lineups and had he gotten me at least 20FP in each i would have made money.

    I had him in all my cash lineups last night but so did most everyone else (close to 80% ownership) so I managed to cash anyway.

  • kkissell

    Bk,
    The short answer is no, you are not right. While luck does play a factor in DFS, skill is the dominant factor in long term success. Luck can play a large role on any given night with an injury or games not going according to expectations, but it is not an accident that certain players have enjoyed long term success in DFS.

    Those players do research, crunch statistics, and build predictive models in some cases all to create consistently above average lineups. Over time, their skill and effort advantage creates consistent financial success.

    Your first challenge as a new player is to eliminate the “it’s all luck” mindset because it is simply not true. Your second challenge is to sift through the mountain of information that is available on a nightly basis to find only that information that increases your odds of success. Trust me, that is not an easy task.

    Best of luck,

  • btwice80

    I know it’s difficult to understand how they can be so different, but the truth is that short-term profitability is much more luck-based, and long-term profitability is much more skill-based.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Luck does play a role but research is what helps you win in the long run. Anyone can identify the good plays of the night, but research and skill is needed to help pick players that will hit their ceilings and put yourself in a position to win.

  • Chango

    Luck always play a role in sports, injuries happen. But luck can only win you 1 out of 100 or 2 out of 100 or 10 out of 100. Skill and research is what give you consistency. IMO research and quantity don’t go well with me, there’s not a number of hours you must spend researching to win every night on DFS. Of course, talking about researching on different sites, that can cause trouble, if you are going to spent time researching pick a trusted site or know what you are researching.

    Too much research can cause you to second guess your picks. Also sometimes your gut with a little research can do you good.

  • Meatacus

    @tvsfrink said...

    I had him in all my cash lineups last night but so did most everyone else (close to 80% ownership) so I managed to cash anyway.

    Well that’s cash game, you couldn’t have won anything significant in a Tourney with KL in your LU.
    I won slightly in cash games with a 86% ownership of KL however I lost in tourneys as I had 50% more than the public of KL and having to get into the top 15% was very difficult with him.
    Only 3 possible LU’s with KL were over 300 pts and

  • dmiller10nc

    I have played DFS for close to four years (I started out playing 10 man leagues in NFL in 2012). I finally feel for the first time I’m clicking in NBA and DFS in general. It took four years and a lot of time and research. I think I am finally able to listen to everyone’s opinion but not play everyone they recommend (last year that wasn’t the case). I use their information to decide how I think it is best to attack the slate and then I use my gut and my knowledge of how I think the slate will play out game wise/ownership wise and make my decisions from there. You have to begin analyzing every game and think how is this going to go? Why? Who benefits from x,y and z? For the first time ever I feel confident in my thoughts and opinions…and it took a long time to get there. A very long time. The last two weekends I have had that mentality and turned in the top two fanduel
    NBA scores I have ever had (376.4 and 391.9). All I did was listen, write it down but more importantly apply what I already knew and followed my gut. Soak in everything these pros have to say and learn but eventually be okay following your own gut.

  • tommykarate

    what matters more then anything IMO in DFS (for cash games) are price movements.
    draymond green was a perfect example tonight.

    you’ll hear a ton of DVP mention — its the equivalent to ERA in baseball imo…i look at it, but dont put tons of weight into it. a very very overrated statistic

    oh and dont listen to what touts say – remember, unlike touts in sports gambling — these people are your opponents. dont give a dime to people who sell their plays.

  • scottmsteiner

    You can listen to all the articles and podcasts, research the statistics, and build a great model. However, understanding game theory and projecting ownership percentages is what will place you above the average player. That’s putting luck on your side.

  • ocdobv

    • 823

      RG Overall Ranking

    @tommykarate said...

    what matters more then anything IMO in DFS (for cash games) are price movements.

    Disagree with you on this. The movements are irrelevant.

    as easy example, consider
    Player A and B both expected to score 40. Player A’s price just dropped $1k to $8000, whereas Player B’s price increased $1k to $6500. Despite the movement, Player B is a much better choice than Player A.

  • jimfred82

    • Blogger of the Month

    experience goes a long way, too. The more you play, the more you can predict “trap” plays that burn large chunks of the field.

  • cedric19

    @dmiller10nc said...

    The last two weekends I have had that mentality and turned in the top two fanduel
    NBA scores I have ever had (376.4 and 391.9)

    To be fair I think everyone had their top scores ever lately.

  • tommykarate

    @ocdobv said...

    Disagree with you on this. The movements are irrelevant.

    as easy example, consider
    Player A and B both expected to score 40. Player A’s price just dropped $1k to $8000, whereas Player B’s price increased $1k to $6500. Despite the movement, Player B is a much better choice than Player A.

    your example can mean a number of things. lets use recent game action and lowry as Player A vs the Jazz and Player B is Derek Rose vs the Suns. Rose’s increased usage with all of the injuries still has him at a bargain price based on circumstances; plus his pace up game vs the pace down game for Lowry makes Rose the easy choice.

    but with all things being equal, to say that price movement is irrelevant — i disagree with. a buy low/sell high strategy (in cash games) is very much a part of the equation. Last night with Green was a perfect example – a few weeks ago Leonard hit a season low in price and on que went off in a good matchup. Its something i put a lot of weight into.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @scottmsteiner said...

    You can listen to all the articles and podcasts, research the statistics, and build a great model. However, understanding game theory and projecting ownership percentages is what will place you above the average player. That’s putting luck on your side.

    Disagree strongly

  • ocdobv

    • 823

      RG Overall Ranking

    @tommykarate said...

    your example can mean a number of things. lets use recent game action and lowry as Player A vs the Jazz and Player B is Derek Rose vs the Suns. Rose’s increased usage with all of the injuries still has him at a bargain price based on circumstances; plus his pace up game vs the pace down game for Lowry makes Rose the easy choice.

    but with all things being equal, to say that price movement is irrelevant — i disagree with. a buy low/sell high strategy (in cash games) is very much a part of the equation. Last night with Green was a perfect example – a few weeks ago Leonard hit a season low in price and on que went off in a good matchup. Its something i put a lot of weight into.

    You seem confused. Is a $7500 player a better play today if his price were $10000 a month ago vs if it were $5000 a month ago? Obviously not. It’s the same player on the same day. The price MOVEMENT is irrelevant. There is nothing about his past price that effects his value today. (unless you are talking game theory and ownership rates, then there’s some usefulness to it).

  • tommykarate

    @ocdobv said...

    You seem confused. Is a $7500 player a better play today if his price were $10000 a month ago vs if it were $5000 a month ago? Obviously not. It’s the same player on the same day. The price MOVEMENT is irrelevant. There is nothing about his past price that effects his value today. (unless you are talking game theory and ownership rates, then there’s some usefulness to it).

    im far from confused.

    you may or may not be successful with what works for you, but i can assure you that you’re not looking at everything completely if you dont pay attention to how prices fluctuate. At the end of the day, most NBA stars get back to their usual statistics. Lets use Draymond Green again last night as an example. He has been slumping of late (which happens during an 82 game season); you mean to tell me that you dont think he was a solid “buy low” player last night when he was at right around his LOWEST price of the season on FD? Couple that with Bogut being Q, and it was a lock and load play to start my roster.

    Others that come to mind recently were Avery Bradley, Kawhi, Fournier.

    Unibrow is $9.9k today (his high on the season was 11.2k). If you dont have him on your radar, then thats not sound research. Of course there are other factors to consider, but when i see him less then 10k it peaks my interest — again, he’ll come around and get hot again. look at how prices fluctuate throughout a season. I guarantee you he will be 10.5-11k at some point again.

    I dont get how you can not think price fluctuation is a piece of the puzzle in lineup construction. Taking a player when hes overpriced or passing when underpriced is not a long term profitable strategy.

    i should correct my original comment – the #1 most important thing to factor in DFS is injuries/news and players roles changing. ie, Goran Dragic; Yes, when i see that his usage will go up tremendously, i will of course select him to start my lineups vs a guy that is at a low point in price. But, paying attention to price changes is a huge factor to look at on top of the obvious – injuries/lineup changes.

    i see your point of Projected Points being equal for cheaper players vs higher priced — that becomes possible due to increased usage rates

  • tyrique0730

    price movement shouldn’t really be a debate of course it pays a factor every night whether the player had bad matchups or just a cold stretch and if the decrease price helps u upgrade another position make s your lineup better ,top 3 factor in dfs period.

  • stoptheinsanity

    @Bknetsfan19 said...

    I’m very new to dfs and I hear alot of people saying to research a ton of different things to help you create a lineup. But isn’t it pretty much all luck at the end of the day?

    I like it. Another person exposing all those pros for what they really are. Extremely lucky little leprechauns. They must be stopped!!!

  • ocdobv

    • 823

      RG Overall Ranking

    @tommykarate said...

    Unibrow is $9.9k today (his high on the season was 11.2k). If you dont have him on your radar, then thats not sound research. Of course there are other factors to consider, but when i see him less then 10k it peaks my interest — again, he’ll come around and get hot again. look at how prices fluctuate throughout a season. I guarantee you he will be 10.5-11k at some point again.

    Just because something is on sale doesn’t make it a good deal.

    I have Brow on my radar today because I project him to be worth more than $9.9k, not because he usually costs more. With your logic, you’d be buying Enron all the way to the bottom.

  • ocdobv

    • 823

      RG Overall Ranking

    @tyrique0730 said...

    price movement shouldn’t really be a debate of course it pays a factor every night whether the player had bad matchups or just a cold stretch and if the decrease price helps u upgrade another position make s your lineup better ,top 3 factor in dfs period.

    price MOVEMENT doesn’t play a part. the price is fixed daily. what matters is the price and situation today.

  • mannmicj

    The NBA is a shit show. Many nights by missing on one player all your research just went down the drain. I’ve never had an entire day of research ruined faster than in the NBA. It can really piss you off and get you head messed up if it happens multiple days in a row. A sport like MLB or even NHL allows you to miss on a player and still win some contests. Making a real profit in DFS is becoming more difficult by the day. The fun for me is winning money, when that stops happening on a fairly consistent basis I’m done. That’s why I stopped playing NBA on DK. Just couldn’t find the right combo night in and night out. On FD, I seem to build better NBA GPP lineups and I avoid cash games that basically payout out for the same score it would take to cash in a GPP or quadruple up. I really can’t wait for MLB. The variance in MLB is actually a blessing and can be used in your favor, IMO.

  • tommykarate

    @ocdobv said...

    Just because something is on sale doesn’t make it a good deal.

    I have Brow on my radar today because I project him to be worth more than $9.9k, not because he usually costs more. With your logic, you’d be buying Enron all the way to the bottom.

    Yeah – cause that’s what I said.

    Forget it. You’re either not comprehending me or are a know it all that never admits he’s wrong.

    Funny that you bring up a stock market analogy yet aren’t grasping the buy low sell high concept in DFS.

  • tyrique0730

    Deciding between two players its does if both are projected to score around 40 n player b 1000 cheaper if u can use the savings its a good idea, 1200 separated player mcroberts or jabari yesterday,also we play punts not because of the player skill it’s because their too cheap for the opportunity we believe they have.

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