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  • monaco712

    An ad on a local sports talk radio station says you have an 80%
    better chance of winning on Draft. This does not seem like it
    can be accurate but that’s what the advertisement says.
    Can any Draft players shed some light on this.

  • zpruitt3

  • muglore

    That seems acurate because it’s all snake draft. Even by just picking the default lineups you’re going to win more frequently than a 8 man classic cash game.

  • querb

    i find it much more beatable than dk or fd.

  • bigez952

    I have heard that advertisement many times before and I am sure it is way overstated. Like last year I won 58% of my cash games in MLB so if I do 80% better than that I shouldn’t lose very often at all. They might have data showing that they have 80% more winners in that there may be 18% of users profitable vs. only 10% on Draftkings. I could believe that number but there is no way an individual can expect 80% better results by playing Draft vs. Draftkings in terms of winning % or frequency.

  • NoLimits0

    If the rake is the same the average person has the same chance to win (in terms of ROI) as on DK. This makes sense right?

    However with that said, perhaps what is happening is the average person has a greater chance to be profitable (not to be confused by average ROI) on draft than DK. That’s because there are fewer sharks so they don’t skew the overall average ROI.

    However the reason there are probably fewer sharks is because Draft is probably more of a game of luck than skill. Since there is more luck you have a better chance to be profitable (even if you are bad), but you can’t be as profitable as on DK for the best players because it’s got more luck involved.

    I think DK should be introducing snake drafts soon too. Will wait for that since their interface should be good.

  • bigez952

    @NoLimits0 said...

    If the rake is the same the average person has the same chance to win (in terms of ROI) as on DK. This makes sense right?

    However with that said, perhaps what is happening is the average person has a greater chance to be profitable (not to be confused by average ROI) on draft than DK. That’s because there are fewer sharks so they don’t skew the overall average ROI.

    However the reason there are probably fewer sharks is because Draft is probably more of a game of luck than skill. Since there is more luck you have a better chance to be profitable (even if you are bad), but you can’t be as profitable as on DK for the best players because it’s got more luck involved.

    I think DK should be introducing snake drafts soon too. Will wait for that since their interface should be good.

    I would agree with this statement in that the 80% better chance of winning is probably true for someone who is not very good at DFS and gets run over on Draftkings. Draft for sure takes very little skill since their team sizes are so tiny you only need to pick the stars and don’t really have to do research into value plays where good DFS players can gain an edge. You won’t see any guys drafting Damiere Byrd and Keelan Cole on Draft but on Draftkings those guys helped users win a ton of money. Draft is a good site for the causal DFS player that only wants to play stars and not worry about digging into the depth charts to find under the radar value plays.

  • theseige

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    @bigez952 said...

    Draft for sure takes very little skill since their team sizes are so tiny you only need to pick the stars and don’t really have to do research into value plays where good DFS players can gain an edge

    This statement isn’t true at all… there is a TON of skill, position strength, sleepers with big upside in 6, 8, 10 man tournaments etc…

    But to the OP’s point, 80% more doesn’t mean 80% it means like 18% instead of 10% (or whatever the numbers actually are)

  • tomac

    @muglore said...

    That seems acurate because it’s all snake draft. Even by just picking the default lineups you’re going to win more frequently than a 8 man classic cash game.

    Is there any mathematical data supporting this?

  • NoLimits0

    @theseige said...

    This statement isn’t true at all… there is a TON of skill, position strength, sleepers with big upside in 6, 8, 10 man tournaments etc…

    But to the OP’s point, 80% more doesn’t mean 80% it means like 18% instead of 10% (or whatever the numbers actually are)

    Well no doubt there is skill in snake drafts. It’s just less skill than say in auction drafts and definitely less skill than the salary cap format DK has. That’s why you have a higher % of people “winning” (but still way under 50% like you guys pointed out with the 10% vs 18% example), but you don’t have the absolutely high winners like on DK because of the reduction in skill in snake drafts compared to other formats.

    Anyways like I said DK should be introducing this soon with larger prize pools so looking forward to it. The more diversity in formats the better imo.

  • bigez952

    @theseige said...

    This statement isn’t true at all… there is a TON of skill, position strength, sleepers with big upside in 6, 8, 10 man tournaments etc…

    But to the OP’s point, 80% more doesn’t mean 80% it means like 18% instead of 10% (or whatever the numbers actually are)

    I didn’t say or mean there is no skill. I do agree there is always skill involved and the bigger games like 8 to 10 teams would take a lot more skill than a head to head or 3 man game. It is just my opinion is takes more skill to be successful at a salary cap game like Draftkings then a snake draft format like Draft so causal users can see more success without having to spend hours researching.

    If this opinion is wrong where it takes more skill to play Draft vs. Draftkings then the entire advertisement that it is 80% easier to win doesn’t make any sense at all to me. I would agree that is likely that the 80% number comes from 18% being profitable vs. 10% or so on Draftkings just because a snake draft style is much harder for the top players to dominate and win everything like they can on Draftkings.

  • britdevine

    • 2014 StarStreet MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Over the last 30 days per DK only 13% of players are net winners

    This means that about 20% of players win on Draft per the commercial

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Since it’s a snake draft, isn’t everything on Draft single entry?
    I’d imagine that’s the biggest part of the quotes number. There’s no tourney’s where a single user can have 150 entries. The absence of GPP’s alone is going to allow for more unique winners.

  • joeycis

    • Blogger of the Month

    @TheRyanFlaherty said...

    Since it’s a snake draft, isn’t everything on Draft single entry?
    I’d imagine that’s the biggest part of the quotes number. There’s no tourney’s where a single user can have 150 entries. The absence of GPP’s alone is going to allow for more unique winners.

    You can multi-enter some of their tournaments. You would just have multiple teams hoping to move forward. If you have multiple teams make the final round, you just end up getting paid out for the extras and then the final round gets smaller.

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