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  • SirPixALot

    Can someone please explain this bizarre phenomenon?

    I played multiple entries in a DraftKings NFL Divisional Round contest this past weekend. It was the NFL $175K Play-Action (Sat.Only) $3 Contest that included only the Saturday, Jan. 16th games – Chiefs/Patriots and Packers/Cardinals.

    When Randall Cobb left the game for good late in the 1st quarter, it opened the door for season-long bench warmer Jeff Janis to not only get his first significant playing time of the entire season (he had 2 catches and 0 scores ALL SEASON), it turned into an explosive performance of 7 receptions for 145 yards and 2 TD’s. This tallied up an extremely unlikely 36.5 FPTS for anyone clairvoyant enough to predict that these events would unfold, at all.

    So while watching the game and seeing Janis ring up more and more would-be DFS points (but not following it on DraftKings) I thought, that’s no problem because – for obvious reasons – surely nobody would even consider playing him in even one of their lineups. It wouldn’t make any sense, right? I mean, you’d actually have to predict that a serious injury would occur to justify playing Janis at all, right?

    And yes, I know that Davante Adams had been ruled out, but everyone knows that Jared Abbrederis had already been established as the “other guy,” right? Plus, even if people entering this contest were wise enough to guess that Davante’s absence could possibly give Janis SOME opportunity, they couldn’t possibly have guessed that an injury would afford him THAT MUCH opportunity, right?

    Wrong. As it turned out – quite unbelievably – not only did someone benefit from plugging Jeff Janis into their lineup, but 8 of the top-10 placing money winners did. Yes, EIGHT, despite being in only 0.1% of the contest’s lineups!

    How is that possible? Am I completely unaware of and missing out on available access to some sort of NFL insider information that these EIGHT winners have? Were they somehow informed that season-long benchwarmer Jeff Janis was expected to play a significant role in that crucial playoff game, regardless of any starter’s health?

    His salary was a bottom-of-the-barrel $3,000 so I understand that some lineups loaded with high-cost players would be forced to choose from among the $3K players, BUT there were other $3K players fully available that did stand a much better chance of picking up a few points based on their season history and/or game situations… that is for anyone using the standard, logical thought process of strategic lineup selection.

    Someone please enlighten me.

  • JSteele

    In this slate there were a number of low priced sleepers. Conley, Abbrederis, Wilson. The 3 guys that everyone was talking about more or less. I think you are right about the Adams injury opening up a few snaps to Janis but it was the Cobb injury that really opened it up for him.

  • JustDFSin

    People wanted to be super contrarian that’s all u didn’t miss anything. In lower staked games you will see this a lot.

  • Putz

    @SirPixALot said...

    Can someone please explain this bizarre phenomenon??

    I played multiple entries in a DraftKings NFL Divisional Round contest this past weekend. It was the NFL $175K Play-Action (Sat.Only) $3 Contest that included only the Saturday, Jan. 16th games – Chiefs/Patriots and Packers/Cardinals.

    When Randall Cobb left the game for good late in the 1st quarter, it opened the door for season-long bench warmer Jeff Janis to not only get his first significant playing time of the entire season (he had 2 catches and 0 scores ALL SEASON), it turned into an explosive performance of 7 receptions for 145 yards and 2 TD’s. This tallied up an extremely unlikely 36.5 FPTS for anyone clairvoyant enough to predict that these events would unfold, at all.

    So while watching the game and seeing Janis ring up more and more would-be DFS points (but not following it on DraftKings) I thought, that’s no problem because – for obvious reasons – surely nobody would even consider playing him in even one of their lineups. It wouldn’t make any sense, right? I mean, you’d actually have to predict that a serious injury would occur to justify playing Janis at all, right?

    And yes, I know that Davante Adams had been ruled out, but everyone knows that Jared Abbrederis had already been established as the “other guy,” right? Plus, even if people entering this contest were wise enough to guess that Davante’s absence could possibly give Janis SOME opportunity, they couldn’t possibly have guessed that an injury would afford him THAT MUCH opportunity, right?

    Wrong. As it turned out – quite unbelievably – not only did someone benefit from plugging Jeff Janis into their lineup, but 8 of the top-10 placing money winners did! Yes, EIGHT, despite being in only 0.1% of the contest’s lineups!

    How is that possible?? Am I completely unaware of and missing out on available access to some sort of NFL insider information that these EIGHT winners have? Were they somehow informed that season-long benchwarmer Jeff Janis was expected to play a significant role in that crucial playoff game, regardless of any starter’s health?

    His salary was a bottom-of-the-barrel $3,000 so I understand that some lineups loaded with high-cost players would be forced to choose from among the $3K players, BUT there were other $3K players fully available that did stand a much better chance of picking up a few points based on their season history and/or game situations… that is for anyone using the standard, logical thought process of strategic lineup selection.

    Someone, anyone, please enlighten me.

    How many entries did people have in those contests who also had a Janis lineup?

  • MrFantasy

    Doesn’t Janis return kicks?

  • AWoo

    @MrFantasy said...

    Doesn’t Janis return kicks?

    BINGO. Kickoffs yes, Abbrederis was doing PRs after the injuries during the game.

  • jtwfantasy

    The fact that the highest scoring receiver who was also min price was in the majority of winning line-ups is not surprising in the least bit. It’s also not surprising there would be a few people who took him in a super large tournament (roughly 65,000 man judging by the prize pool). Maybe someone didn’t know Abbrederis was the main beneficiary, or maybe they mis-clicked the wrong min price receiver.

  • jregger

    1) Small 4-game slate —> very decent GPP contrarian option.
    2) Lack of recent reliable / high-floor Packers’ passing options.
    3) Janis’s physical stature (6’3, 220 lbs) makes him an ideal target for red-zone passing plays. Some of Bales’ excellent research has shown that receivers / TEs with this sort of size are statistically more likely to find red zone targets.

    With that being noted, I did not take (or even consider) Janis in any of my GPP lineups (nor did I cash any of them) :)

  • bzsports4

    8 of the the top 10 had him, because if you had him you obviously had a huge leg up on the other 99.9% of the field. Its not unreasonable that a 3rd receiver was rostered, and I’m kind of surprised he was only .1% owned. The cardinals have brown fitz and floyd, the seahawks have kearse lockett and baldwin. Stop complaining and looking for reasons that you lost.

  • tonytone1908

    Well, let’s see. Obviously a lot of people knew about Abbrederis so playing him would not give you an edge whatsoever. Four game slate, not a lot to choose from to begin with. If he’s already returning kicks he has an edge over the other possible options. That’s what made guys like Lockett and Ginn good plays many times, ESPECIALLY if you’re already playing their D/ST so you get the double dip in the event of a TD return. Many people will play a min salary guy fully expecting a 0 but hoping to make that up by being able to stack with studs, similar to playing a non starting min salary goalie in hockey. The name of the game is being contrarian right? You have to take chances. Did anyone use him in cash? Highly unlikely.

    In GPP’s you have an 85% chance of coming away with nothing. In rare occasions a highly chalk LU will win but you more than likely have to split whatever prize you get with hundreds if not thousands of other people. Do you think these people are playing Janis in the hopes of turning $2 into 4 or 5 bucks or trying to win $100k? I guess it depends on your goal. If your fine with just doubling up than either don’t play him or play double ups. If you want that huge prize you gotta take a chance.

  • MickyD10970

    I don’t think it is completely crazy to those that follow pretty closely. I live in Minnesota and have a good friend who is a Green Bay die hard fan and I actually called him before finalizing my lineup (he does not play DFS) and asked him about Jeff Janis whom I know about from Dynasty fantasy football. I asked him if he thought Janis might be a better option than Abbrederis considering his metrics and how much the coaching staff like him. Unfortunately he had no opinion so I went with Abbrederis myself. The point is however I considered Janis for the contrary aspect and in hindsight sure wish I had pulled the trigger.

  • catfish_tx

    What is your question?

    He was 0.1% owned. 99.9% of people didn’t play him, so there wasn’t something you “missed”. A highly unlikely (but not impossible) series of events unfolded that led to him having a career day. Big points w/low ownership = $. Not breaking news around here. And because YOU – Mr. I do my own research and strategically set my lineups – overlooked him, then 8 of the top 10 must have inside information? GTFO here dude.

    P.S. Solid first post btw. Welcome to RG.

  • tipandpick

    • 2016 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • 2014 FAFC Champion

    This is what I wrote when somebody asked the same question in a FootballGuys’ thread (https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/740574-all-the-big-winners-have-jeff-janis-single-entry-tournamentsvery-fishy/).

    “I’ll try one more time to explain why he was a decent GPP play…

    1) Davante Adams was announced as ‘inactive’ earlier in the week.
    2) Because Adams was inactive, it appeared that Abbrederis would get the start opposite Randall Cobb.
    3) Cobb, who generally runs out of the slot (but hadn’t vs. WAS and wasn’t going to vs. ARZ), was going to be matched up against Patrick Peterson, the league’s best coverage CB.
    4) The WR(s) opposite Cobb were likely to get a lot of overflow targets when Peterson had Cobb blanketed.
    5) The gamescript called for GB to be playing from behind, so 3 WR sets were not out of the question for GB, which would have Jeff Janis on the field more often than usual.
    6) The game had the highest Vegas total on the weekend.
    7) Janis was listed at the site minimum across the industry, so his value was intriguing, given this set of circumstances.

    There is nothing in those seven points that is inaccurate. It’s OK to say you didn’t see it…nobody will think less of you if you were amongst the 99% of people who didn’t have him (including me). But saying that the game is rigged because 1% had him is simply not accepting the facts that were in front of us all entering the weekend.”

  • Putz

    @tipandpick said...

    This is what I wrote when somebody asked the same question in a FootballGuys’ thread (https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/740574-all-the-big-winners-have-jeff-janis-single-entry-tournamentsvery-fishy/).

    I’ll try one more time to explain why he was a decent GPP play…

    1) Davante Adams was announced as ‘inactive’ earlier in the week.
    2) Because Adams was inactive, it appeared that Abbrederis would get the start opposite Randall Cobb.
    3) Cobb, who generally runs out of the slot (but hadn’t vs. WAS and wasn’t going to vs. ARZ), was going to be matched up against Patrick Peterson, the league’s best coverage CB.
    4) The WR(s) opposite Cobb were likely to get a lot of overflow targets when Peterson had Cobb blanketed.
    5) The gamescript called for GB to be playing from behind, so 3 WR sets were not out of the question for GB, which would have Jeff Janis on the field more often than usual.
    6) The game had the highest Vegas total on the weekend.
    7) Janis was listed at the site minimum across the industry, so his value was intriguing, given this set of circumstances.

    There is nothing in those seven points that is inaccurate. It’s OK to say you didn’t see it…nobody will think less of you if you were amongst the 99% of people who didn’t have him (including me). But saying that the game is rigged because 1% had him is simply not accepting the facts that were in front of us all entering the weekend.

    You wrote that before the game?

  • TwoGun

    • 359

      RG Overall Ranking

    • x3

      $1M Prize Winner

    • x5

      2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

  • Heterodox

    @tipandpick said...

    But saying that the game is rigged because 1% had him is simply not accepting the facts that were in front of us all entering the weekend.”

    You people are insane. WHO SAID IT WAS RIGGED??

  • Putz

    @Heterodox said...

    You people are insane. WHO SAID IT WAS RIGGED??

    I think someone on the other site.

  • SirPixALot

    Bingo!

  • tonytone1908

    @Heterodox said...

    You people are insane. WHO SAID IT WAS RIGGED??

    The losers did.

  • SouthernShield

    When Cobb went out the coverage went onto Jones/Abbrederis. That opened it up for Rogers/Janis. Janis just happened to have the big game.

    If Cobb doesn’t get hurt the big game goes to Rogers/Abbrederis.

    Some people had enough LU’s to roster Janis OR they just decided to take a chance.

  • SirPixALot

    Thanks for the input, guys… some valid points I didn’t consider enough or at all.

    But come on, go easy on me. I’m just finishing up my rookie season in DFS… still learning things the hard way. Lesson learned.

    From what I’ve seen during this NFL season, more often than not when someone does take a chance on a low-priced, ultra-low stat player, I’d see that player in only one or maybe two of the top 10 scoring lineups… but never 8. This includes other 2-game contests such as the Sunday/Monday night contests.

    And I’m not suggesting any conspiracy. By “insider information” I meant NFL team info not readily available to the general public that could be subscribed to, or something.

    If only Uncle Rico coulda got his time machine to work.

  • Putz

    @SirPixALot said...

    Thanks for the input, guys… some valid points I didn’t consider enough or at all.

    But come on, go easy on me. I’m just finishing up my rookie season in DFS… still learning things the hard way. Lesson learned.

    From what I’ve seen during this NFL season, more often than not when someone does take a chance on a low-priced, ultra-low stat player, I’d see that player in only one or maybe two of the top 10 scoring lineups… but never 8. This includes other 2-game contests such as the Sunday/Monday night contests.

    And I’m not suggesting any conspiracy. By “insider information” I meant NFL team info not readily available to the general public that could be subscribed to, or something.

    If only Uncle Rico coulda got his time machine to work.

    Smaller slate.

  • Z06Fanatic

    who takes Janis over Kearse this weekend? If you had both then my hats off to ya but for min priced guys Kearse is twenty times better a pick then Janis in really any situation

  • mmzapp

    @SirPixALot said...

    Thanks for the input, guys… some valid points I didn’t consider enough or at all.

    But come on, go easy on me. I’m just finishing up my rookie season in DFS… still learning things the hard way. Lesson learned.

    From what I’ve seen during this NFL season, more often than not when someone does take a chance on a low-priced, ultra-low stat player, I’d see that player in only one or maybe two of the top 10 scoring lineups… but never 8. This includes other 2-game contests such as the Sunday/Monday night contests.

    And I’m not suggesting any conspiracy. By “insider information” I meant NFL team info not readily available to the general public that could be subscribed to, or something.

    If only Uncle Rico coulda got his time machine to work.

    Also, you looked at the top of the leader board. Try looking at the bottom. For every Jeff Janis, you will find people who rostered Frankie Hammond, J.J. Nelson, Cody Lattimore, etc.

  • hoodOO7

    @Z06Fanatic said...

    who takes Janis over Kearse this weekend? If you had both then my hats off to ya but for min priced guys Kearse is twenty times better a pick then Janis in really any situation

    Agreed. Kearse seemed like the obvious punt play that everyone should have been on. He’s gotten mad volume and been very productive. If Baldwin was going to get shut down and this game got out of hand, it was going to be all the better for him.

    I thankfully had Kearse in 50% of my LU’s, which helped the sting for those that had James Jones haha

  • mmzapp

    @hoodOO7 said...

    Kearse seemed like the obvious punt play that everyone should have been on.

    Exactly! Do you not understand the concept of large field GPP’s? You pivot to a LESS OBVIOUS play. For at least some of your exposure. Of course Janis was a -EV play. But in a field that large, I’m shocked he was only .1% owned.

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