Hey guys, I’m kind of new here and creating my first thread, so please be kind. 😊 I know this kind of thread gets posted in some variation a lot, but I wanted to get people’s opinions on something I saw on FanDuel last night, while the night’s slate is still fresh on our minds. Obviously there were a lot of injury situations to consider (Westbrook, Harden, Capela, Paul, Aldridge, Nunn, Rose, etc) that created a lot of value plays, so overlapping lineups aren’t a huge surprise. But in the Double-Ups on FanDuel, the Doncic-Fox-Schroder-Butler-Gallinari-Gordon-Adebayo-Hartenstein-Poeltl lineup that scored 372 points made up nearly 50% of lineups. For example, in the BIG $5 Double-Up (3,908 entries), that lineup was the difference between 985th place and 2,497th place – meaning that out of 3,908 entries, that lineup was duplicated 1,512 times. Just about 40% of the entries in that contest were that specific lineup. Similar numbers in the BIG $11 Double-Up – it made up 36% of the entries – and other similar contests (Double-Ups, Triple-Ups, Single Entry GPPs, etc) all across FanDuel.
Now I understand the idea that soft pricing, along with late-breaking injury news, create a situation where some guys will be very highly owned (Hartenstein, Gordon, Poeltl), and to be honest, I played this exact same lineup in some GPPs, so clearly it was on my radar as a good GPP lineup, but the Jimmy Butler ownership in cash is something that just kills me. At about 6:30pm (prior to a 7pm lock) he was still in the locker room, trying to get clearance to play through the same ankle injury he tried to play through the game before – and he ended up missing chunks of that game while going back for treatment multiple times. How could nearly 40% of the entries think that was a safe cash play? With DeRozan (without Aldridge), Zach Lavine, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (without Chris Paul), Tyler Herro (without Nunn), Donovan Mitchell (at home against Houston), Ben McLemore (starting without Westbrook and Harden, priced at $3,600), etc, all on the same slate? What specifically bothers me about this is that Jimmy Butler was less than 50% owned in these contests, so that specific lineup made up the overwhelming majority of his ownership – virtually no one (except the people playing this specific line-up) thought he was a safe cash game play.
Anyone have any thoughts on this beyond just saying there is rampant lineup-sharing going on? I don’t even think that lineup-sharing is the cause of all of this – this lineup was played by hundreds of people in these contests, I don’t think all of those people know each other – but I do think this specific lineup clearly came from somewhere, and people played it without any kind of consideration of Butler’s injury risk for cash games. Thoughts?