PGA FORUM

Comments

  • whodat2

    When: July 8-11

    Where: Silvis, IL

    Course: TPC Deer Run | A par 71 playing at 7268 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Dillon Frittelli at -21

    Last Year’s Cut: -3

    Coverage: PGALive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    We also have the Scottish Open this week with a much better field.

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • MrBreeze

    actually looking forward to this tournament, 50th anniversary since it began

  • pheffernan7

    Really hoping the Scottish gets some better contests this week…

  • mh8235

    For those considering which DK contests to enter, I seriously caution against the big GPPs unless you plan to max it out.

    To provide some context for those unfamiliar; in a week where a 35% Bryson missed the cut, ~5% 6/6 rate, my lineup with six across had both Davis+Niemann and only managed to min cash. Sure the rest of my team could’ve played better on Sunday (5 in top 15 on Saturday), but it’s irrelevant because the top lineups in the Flop Shot had literally all their guys in the top 10.

    I don’t want others to finally get a great opportunity only for it to be in the wrong contest. I think you’re much better off playing one $55 entry with 4,000 entries instead of 4+ lineups in the Flop Shot. It’s not enough just to be great, you literally need to be perfect.

    Take a good look when constructing, and if you just can’t picture your 6 all finishing in the top 10 at week’s end, please pick a different contest instead of facing a min cash full of regret.

  • cplatt87

    Week before a major and all, but this is a rough field. Going to be some really inflated prices on guys that are usually in the 7k range this week.

  • JimKronlund

    @cplatt87 said...

    Week before a major and all, but this is a rough field. Going to be some really inflated prices on guys that are usually in the 7k range this week.

    True, “five players ranked inside the world’s top-50: Daniel Berger (16), Sungjae Im (27), Kevin Na (40), Brian Harman (46) and Si Woo Kim (50)’. >> from twitter

  • Steverino01

    @JimKronlund said...

    True, “five players ranked inside the world’s top-50: Daniel Berger (16), Sungjae Im (27), Kevin Na (40), Brian Harman (46) and Si Woo Kim (50)’. >> from twitter

    Im and Kim are skipping the Open to focus on the Olympics. Why? Because if they medal, they can skip their military obligation.

    I may have to throw those two in a single entry and try to figure out 4 others that won’t be playing in the Open and want to stick around for the weekend.

    I’ll probably go with a single entry in the Scottish Open also. I’m ready for The Open.

  • manoffewwords

    @mh8235 said...

    For those considering which DK contests to enter, I seriously caution against the big GPPs unless you plan to max it out.

    To provide some context for those unfamiliar; in a week where a 35% Bryson missed the cut, ~5% 6/6 rate, my lineup with six across had both Davis+Niemann and only managed to min cash. Sure the rest of my team could’ve played better on Sunday (5 in top 15 on Saturday), but it’s irrelevant because the top lineups in the Flop Shot had literally all their guys in the top 10.

    I don’t want others to finally get a great opportunity only for it to be in the wrong contest. I think you’re much better off playing one $55 entry with 4,000 entries instead of 4+ lineups in the Flop Shot. It’s not enough just to be great, you literally need to be perfect.

    Take a good look when constructing, and if you just can’t picture your 6 all finishing in the top 10 at week’s end, please pick a different contest instead of facing a min cash full of regret.

    SPOT ON

    Over last 30 days only 12% of ALL DFS Players were profitable on DraftKings. Playing 150 max contests with 20- 50% to first place probably make up majority. I use to play these contests,and was in the 88%. I now play SE and 20 max contests for the most part ,and enjoying playing way more ,with better results. I will always play a few lineups in milli makers in majors just to satisfy my lottery desires. With so many knowing that by end of round 2 lineups for most part are dead,no wonder of lack of posts on weekend.

    The top showdown contest each week is also a losing venture because of top prize is always 25-35%. I have requested for some better balanced contests,to no avail. Why would DK change when top heavy contests always fill.

    Between high rake and top heavy contests, you need to get real lucky. By that,as you stated,nearly perfect.

  • harryfox23

    @mh8235 said...

    For those considering which DK contests to enter, I seriously caution against the big GPPs unless you plan to max it out.

    To provide some context for those unfamiliar; in a week where a 35% Bryson missed the cut, ~5% 6/6 rate, my lineup with six across had both Davis+Niemann and only managed to min cash. Sure the rest of my team could’ve played better on Sunday (5 in top 15 on Saturday), but it’s irrelevant because the top lineups in the Flop Shot had literally all their guys in the top 10.

    I don’t want others to finally get a great opportunity only for it to be in the wrong contest. I think you’re much better off playing one $55 entry with 4,000 entries instead of 4+ lineups in the Flop Shot. It’s not enough just to be great, you literally need to be perfect.

    Take a good look when constructing, and if you just can’t picture your 6 all finishing in the top 10 at week’s end, please pick a different contest instead of facing a min cash full of regret.

    Yeah, I’ve basically quit playing any 150 entry contests for anything unless I’m completely just throwing out 1 lineup as a lottery ticket for like week 1 of the NFL season or the masters. I found too many times where I’ was doing absolutely great and in the end I’m in the top 1% and MAYBE make like 5x my entry, which quickly becomes only 1-2x overall if I played a couple more entries. Nowadays I pretty much stick the 3 max tourneys. They are small enough where I actually have a chance, and have, won a couple times, but large enough that winning them is actually worth a few bucks.

  • cplatt87

    Pricing for both events is out. PGA event, as expected, has some hilariously inflated prices compared to where these guys normally are. If you ever wanted to pay 10.4k to roster Brian Harman, this is your week!

    Euro tour pricing is much more normal, however the contests mostly suck so I don’t know if I’ll end up playing any of them.

  • ifthethunder

    @cplatt87 said...

    Pricing for both events is out. PGA event, as expected, has some hilariously inflated prices compared to where these guys normally are.

    Troy Merritt now on sale for just 8,700!

    I guess I’ll have to consider Kevin Streelman again, although he harshed my buzz at the Travelers.

    P.S. Re: The Scottish Open. I’m happy to see they have ticket contests for it. Means I’ll make more than my usual one or 2 lineups for Euro golf.
    ~

  • kdsdawg

    Is there a link to the field for The Open. Might be one more thing to factor in.

  • Getty33

    A guy who I can’t hardly play at his typical $7200 price tag suddenly seems cheap at $8k. (Ghim Reaper)

    Just remember this is the tournament whose last 2 winners were Dylan Frittles and a 7 handicapper (Michael Kim). These 2 clowns have combined to miss 20 cuts this calender year. Anything goes!

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    @Getty33 said...

    A guy who I can’t hardly play at his typical $7200 price tag suddenly seems cheap at $8k. (Ghim Reaper)

    Just remember this is the tournament whose last 2 winners were Dylan Frittles and a 7 handicapper (Michael Kim). These 2 clowns have combined to miss 20 cuts this calender year. Anything goes!

    Feels like a TPJ week.

  • cplatt87

    Doc Redman was 7900 last week and is 8200 this week. Considering how priced up the scrubs are this week, that’s the closest thing to “value” that I can find.

  • tristanwolf

    @ifthethunder said...

    Troy Merritt now on sale for just 8,700!

    I guess I’ll have to consider Kevin Streelman again, although he harshed my buzz at the Travelers.

    P.S. Re: The Scottish Open. I’m happy to see they have ticket contests for it. Means I’ll make more than my usual one or 2 lineups for Euro golf.
    ~

    i like it. between travelers and his price people might be off him, but he’s an illinois guy with a top 10 last time he played here.

  • timusbr

    I am pretty surprised by the amount and who of the euro turned pga players in the John Deere. It also seems like the PGA invaded the Scottish Open.

  • eruthruff

    @mh8235 said...

    For those considering which DK contests to enter, I seriously caution against the big GPPs unless you plan to max it out.

    To provide some context for those unfamiliar; in a week where a 35% Bryson missed the cut, ~5% 6/6 rate, my lineup with six across had both Davis+Niemann and only managed to min cash. Sure the rest of my team could’ve played better on Sunday (5 in top 15 on Saturday), but it’s irrelevant because the top lineups in the Flop Shot had literally all their guys in the top 10.

    I don’t want others to finally get a great opportunity only for it to be in the wrong contest. I think you’re much better off playing one $55 entry with 4,000 entries instead of 4+ lineups in the Flop Shot. It’s not enough just to be great, you literally need to be perfect.

    Take a good look when constructing, and if you just can’t picture your 6 all finishing in the top 10 at week’s end, please pick a different contest instead of facing a min cash full of regret.

    My understanding is that skill at finding underpriced players is going to slightly increase your chances of getting in the top 50%, top 10%, top 5% and top 1%. However, your chances of finishing 1st out of 20k (in other words, being the top .0005th percentile!) is still negligible and perhaps not much higher than anyone else (1 in 20k).

    I once tried simulating this for the millionaire and reported in this forum that even a high-skill player will tend to lose money playing the millionaire in the long run (though not as much as a low-skill player). That same high-skill player would get rich off playing double-ups or small-size GPPs (50 to 200 entrants).

    I haven’t tried also figuring in good game theory. For example, if you can also figure out which of the underpriced players are underowned, and focus on those… There was a lot of discussion of this on here the last few weeks. Personally, I am skeptical that this gives you an especially big advantage, because you tend to give up too much equity to gain uniqueness/leverage. I’d need to see some actual simulations to be convinced. Another game theory strategy is to stack similar types of players or same-wave players, which might increase the correlation (slightly) and give you more extreme outcomes.

    Meanwhile, a low-skilled player might be better off playing large gpps. This player is guaranteed to lose steadily in the long run by playing only double-ups, but might have a 2% change to get lucky and come out ahead (even rich) by playing large gpps. A scary thought is that maybe we are all, in effect, low-skilled players because golf is so random or because it’s easy to get solid picks from touts.

  • klf_is_gonna_rock_ya

    Definitely low skilled

  • ifthethunder

    @ifthethunder said...

    P.S. Re: The Scottish Open. I’m happy to see they have ticket contests for it. Means I’ll make more than my usual one or 2 lineups for Euro golf.

    2nd week in a row LFN’s Euro contest filled before I tried to enter it.
    ~

  • timusbr

    Happy Meal Cup Standings after Rocket Mortgage.

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AiKGps2bl5SRonOWssakZ5QgXvAI

    Joe Photo and Stingray moving up.

  • Getty33

    @ifthethunder said...

    2nd week in a row LFN’s Euro contest filled before I tried to enter it.
    ~

    I made a $2 50/50 but can’t seem to distribute it. I sent one to you. If you get it please share. Thanks.

  • JimKronlund

    @Getty33 said...

    I made a $2 50/50 but can’t seem to distribute it. I sent one to you. If you get it please share. Thanks.

    I dont see it in League

  • Getty33

    @JimKronlund said...

    I dont see it in League

    Yeah I screwed up somehow. I’m the only entrant in the contest which means I might win.

  • JimKronlund

    @Getty33 said...

    Yeah I screwed up somehow. I’m the only entrant in the contest which means I might win.

    I’m guessing you put it in lobby and public not private not in our league.

  • Getty33

    @JimKronlund said...

    I’m guessing you put it in lobby and public not private not in our league.

    Private but not league. I don’t think I can change it. Thanks for your support.

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