STRATEGY FORUM

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  • Centrin21

    Let the Knockout Stage begin! I am quite satisfied to see Draftkings has quickly responded to the public outcry and made the contest structure so much more appealing. With 4 Bo5s over a 4-day slate, this should be the most interesting format yet.

    Pinnacle Odds (10/12)

    To win series:
    Origin 1.375 (-270)
    Flash Wolves 3.15 (+215)

    SKT1 1.033 (-3000)
    AHQ 12.52 (+1152)

    EDG 1.617(-162)
    Fnatic 2.330(+133)

    KT Rolster 1.411 (-243)
    KOO Tigers 2.950 (+195)

    Game 1:
    Origin 1.555(-180)
    Flash Wolves 2.469(+147)

    SKT1 1.178(-560)
    AHQ 5.02 (+402)

    EDG 1.729(-137)
    Fnatic 2.130(+113)

    KT Rolster 1.584(-171)
    KOO Tigers 2.400 (+140)

    Given the addition of series now it seems the extended rules should be highlighted. Looks like +40 bonus points for winning players on teams who sweep 3-0 and +20 for winning 3-1. Naturally losing players and teams score no bonus points.

    Players and Teams will accumulate bonus points for winning a series early as follows:
    Every game not played by winning players (GNP+) = + 20 PTs
    Games not played = Maximum games in series – Games played in series
    Players must earn stats in at least one of the games in the series in order to be eligible for this bonus
    Every game not played by winning teams (GNP+) = + 15 PTs

  • Gaudexmachina

    YES……all the peke deaths to maple!!!!!!

  • speddie

    Seems to be Origens game here.

  • Gaudexmachina

    Not sure how bad that will hurt me since it doesnt go to 5, but I definitely am not sitting in a terrible spot. I picked Origen to win on a few of my non og/fw comps too.

  • speddie

    The Irelia pick for FW was just terrible, I don’t understand that at all. That was OG’s game right after champ select.

    Decent production from both teams for the prices. A game 5 would have been nice, but 4 aint so bad. On to day 2!

  • Gaudexmachina

    I dropped out of 1st…..But I have SKT team left over versus an AHQ support and a 1.5 point deficit.

    I kind of wish day two would start now. 3 days sweat is too much.

    Good luck tomorrow people.

  • speddie

    @Gaudexmachina said...

    I dropped out of 1st…..But I have SKT team left over versus an AHQ support and a 1.5 point deficit.

    I kind of wish day two would start now. 3 days sweat is too much.

    Good luck tomorrow people.

    You mustve never played PGA DFS lol :)

    It makes the sweat even more hype if you’re still in it come day 4

  • wazzu24

    RG LoL Writer

    Sad it didn’t go 5. least we got 4.

  • LarryLegend33

    @speddie said...

    The Irelia pick for FW was just terrible, I don’t understand that at all. That was OG’s game right after champ select.

    Decent production from both teams for the prices. A game 5 would have been nice, but 4 aint so bad. On to day 2!

    Overall, I think production was very low, with the obvious exception of Niels. I’d hope to get anywhere from 115 – 160 for a guy on the winning squad. Very underwhelming considering these guys played the longest average matches of any teams left at World’s. If you had heavy exposure in this match for one of the 4-days, it is going to be hard to cash.

  • Gaudexmachina

    @speddie said...

    It makes the sweat even more hype if you’re still in it come day 4

    I joined a freeroll on fantasy hub yesterday, so I get my first PGA experience. I cant watch golf though, so I doubt I will get very into it. I used to actually play LOL, which made me feel a bit more immersed. Hope I went the correct way on the PGA. Pick 7 players, only top 5 scores count. I went with some super cheap scrubs, 3 top players, 2 mid tier with the highest percentage of making the cuts. Hope that was the correct way to go about it.

  • Gaudexmachina

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    Overall, I think production was very low, with the obvious exception of Niels. I’d hope to get anywhere from 115 – 160 for a guy on the winning squad. Very underwhelming considering these guys played the longest average matches of any teams left at World’s. If you had heavy exposure in this match for one of the 4-days, it is going to be hard to cash.

    From the first week, it was showing average scores for most players from their summer split and scores typically ranged from 80-130 for a Bo5 for winning teams with a few of the ADCs being high outliers. Due to salary constraints it is quite hard to pick a perfect lineup.

    For this slate, I focused on putting money on both sides of teams that were in the closest matchups. I actually expected origin to run 3-0 and only took this matchup in case I was somehow very wrong about FW and due to both teams having the longest games in the previous rounds.

    Whle it would be nice to take down 60-100 dollars with what I already have, I have a feeling that the KOO/KT game will be going to 5 maybe 4 and features teams that are much more combative early meaning that is probably where to put your money down.

    The other two matchups seem to be 3-0 for SKT and 3-1 for EDG. I did throw in a few cheap lineups with players from EDG/FNC.

  • speddie

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    Overall, I think production was very low, with the obvious exception of Niels. I’d hope to get anywhere from 115 – 160 for a guy on the winning squad. Very underwhelming considering these guys played the longest average matches of any teams left at World’s. If you had heavy exposure in this match for one of the 4-days, it is going to be hard to cash.

    You might be right, i’m not sure what the winning scores will look like for a slate like this. I think 115-160 is pretty adventurous, I was banking on anything over 110 as a good score for a player.

  • LarryLegend33

    @speddie said...

    You might be right, i’m not sure what the winning scores will look like for a slate like this. I think 115-160 is pretty adventurous, I was banking on anything over 110 as a good score for a player.

    In the first round, a player on the winning squad was generally at 20-50 depending on position and outcome, with some outliers are low as ~15 and as high as 60+.

    Let’s say the typical guy is at 30 points in a win and then sweep, you have (30*3) + (20*2) = 130. I don’t think that is too much to ask.

    In the group rounds:

    Avg Kills – Winning team – 18.5
    Avg Kills – Losing team – 8.0
    Avg Kills – Combined – 26.6

    Total

    Avg Kills – Winning team – 13.8
    Avg Kills – Losing team – 9.0
    Avg Kills – Combined – 22.8

    So total kills were off 14% today when compared to the group stages, but average kills for the winning team was off a whopping 26%.

    If you take, the 4.7 reduced kills per match for the winning team and multiply it by 3 wins, you get a little over 14 fewer kills than expected. If we assume an average of 2 assists per kill (that’s the low end), that means 7 few points per kill x 14.1 kills = ~98.7 fewer points or nearly 20 points less per position from the winning team. That’s a lot.

  • speddie

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    In the first round, a player on the winning squad was generally at 20-50 depending on position and outcome, with some outliers are low as ~15 and as high as 60+.

    Let’s say the typical guy is at 30 points in a win and then sweep, you have (30*3) + (20*2) = 130. I don’t think that is too much to ask.

    In the group rounds:

    Avg Kills – Winning team – 18.5
    Avg Kills – Losing team – 8.0
    Avg Kills – Combined – 26.6

    Total

    Avg Kills – Winning team – 13.8
    Avg Kills – Losing team – 9.0
    Avg Kills – Combined – 22.8

    So total kills were off 14% today when compared to the group stages, but average kills for the winning team was off a whopping 26%.

    If you take, the 4.7 reduced kills per match for the winning team and multiply it by 3 wins, you get a little over 14 fewer kills than expected. If we assume an average of 2 assists per kill (that’s the low end), that means 7 few points per kill x 14.1 kills = ~98.7 fewer points or nearly 20 points less per position from the winning team. That’s a lot.

    Yea that makes sense. It’s worth nothing though that if a series goes 3-2, the players on the winning team could score as low as 0 points in the loss, sometimes lower if it’s very one sided.

    If the winning player scores 30+30+30 in the winning games, and say 5 and 15 in the two games lost, that is 110, which is still a decent score and very plausible. Obviously, the opposite is also possible, where they 30*3 in the wins, and maybe 25, 30 in the loses, which is better than the clean sweep bonus. It really just depends on gameflow, Maple on FW today had over 100 pts when they only won 1 game which I would consider a pretty strong outing.

    Time will tell!

  • Gaudexmachina

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    So total kills were off 14% today when compared to the group stages, but average kills for the winning team was off a whopping 26%.

    This drop off should be expected. The weak teams have been weeded out and there are less over all kills given out from better players. Also, the two “best” teams have yet to play.

  • Gaudexmachina

    A third point is that both of these teams were content to farm up and play “non-bloody” games until the 15 minute mark. Teams like Koo and KT and SKt are constantly looking to pick off others all game long and often form roaming gank squads to capitalize on what they see as positional mistakes.

  • BobGrinder

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    Overall, I think production was very low, with the obvious exception of Niels. I’d hope to get anywhere from 115 – 160 for a guy on the winning squad. Very underwhelming considering these guys played the longest average matches of any teams left at World’s. If you had heavy exposure in this match for one of the 4-days, it is going to be hard to cash

    I don’t know man only NL averaged over 40 PPG at Worlds of the players to make the second round and he only played 5 games. If he puts up a 20 pointer in the game he missed he drops into the 30s. Of the players in the quarters only 14/40 averaged over 30 PPG. I know its a small sample size but new patch/meta so I think performance at Worlds carries more weight than anything else. The avg of the avg PPG for these 40 players is less than 30. (Sorry no exact number, I’m on a mobile and don’t feel like figuring it out again, just remember it was less than 30)

    You also have to consider the increase in strength of OPP combined with the fact that all of these teams won more games than they lost in the first round but for half these teams that will not remain true this round.

  • Gaudexmachina

    Well…CS seems trivial, but over 5 games a laner (top/mid/adc) does accumulate quite a lot of points as well. Maybe 100-150 is more likely. Either way I dont think my 666 point score will hold out for fourth place, even with SKT team bonus added in (should be around 90-100). I am leaning towards the winning score being in the 800-850 range.

  • speddie

    Looking for a 3-0 sweep from SKT here. The ownership will be high i’m sure, it will be interesting to see how many points they can put up in these 3 games, plus the 40 bonus points i’m sure.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    It really is amazing that I went from not knowing what this game was, DK starting E-Sports and I now am sitting in my office watching it. :)

    Of course, after I had to play a warm up game.

  • LarryLegend33

    @BobGrinder said...

    I don’t know man only NL averaged over 40 PPG at Worlds of the players to make the second round and he only played 5 games. If he puts up a 20 pointer in the game he missed he drops into the 30s. Of the players in the quarters only 14/40 averaged over 30 PPG. I know its a small sample size but new patch/meta so I think performance at Worlds carries more weight than anything else. The avg of the avg PPG for these 40 players is less than 30. (Sorry no exact number, I’m on a mobile and don’t feel like figuring it out again, just remember it was less than 30)

    You also have to consider the increase in strength of OPP combined with the fact that all of these teams won more games than they lost in the first round but for half these teams that will not remain true this round.

    Your average includes all their games, not the games that they won, which would make it much higher.

    Anyway, I believe yesterday was low. Highest kills for the winners from the 4 matches wouldn’t even be in top 50%. I think at least one of the weekend matches is going to push scores significantly higher. Don’t expect giant scores today though.

  • speddie

    @LarryLegend33 said...

    Your average includes all their games, not the games that they won, which would make it much higher.

    Anyway, I believe yesterday was low. Highest kills for the winners from the 4 matches wouldn’t even be in top 50%. I think at least one of the weekend matches is going to push scores significantly higher. Don’t expect giant scores today though.

    Yea, I expect both the weekend matches to be high scoring, especially the KOO and KT series

  • speddie

    Decent effort from ahq in the 1st game, but SKT is too good.

  • Gaudexmachina

    I would prefer two more of that exact same result…relatively low scoring, and SKT team made more points than their jungler or support

  • speddie

    @Gaudexmachina said...

    I would prefer two more of that exact same result…relatively low scoring, and SKT team made more points than their jungler or support

    and the top laner.

    The next 2 games should be more of the same

  • Gaudexmachina

    Kind of surprises me, Marin is probably the best laner in this tournament, but his team gives him 0 help. He is a true island nearly every game. His percentage owned is fairly high as is Bangs taking into account how high their salary was. I wonder how percentage owned changes with salary in this game.

    Seems like it should be more dependent on price than in other sports where there are more players on the slate, but that certainly hasnt been the case. If they continue e-sports on DK after the world championship, I might try to pay more attention to Blue side advantage in top laners.

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