BANKROLL FORUM

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  • KlairVoyant

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    Here is a link to my BankRoll tracker XL sheet for NBA. I am a newbie and have only played 6,232 games for an average buy-in of $1.31 and winnings of $2,600. However that is an ROI of 32% and I was wondering if you guys thought that win rate was at all sustainable in NBA. It would also be helpful if you guys posted your ROI’s so I had an Idea of how other players were preforming. Thanks in advance,

    KlairVoyant

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WcsK1ufNMCUsG9ZBE4t0r8JqIZydmAR3LytB8OHNLo/edit?usp=sharing

  • KlairVoyant

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    This is a link to my NBA game history. I have played 6,272 games at an average buy in of $1.31 and have won $2,657 for an ROI of 32%. I am new to this and don’t know what a good or sustainable ROI for a NBA DFS player is. Any comments on this subject would be very helpful for me. Thank you in advance and GL!

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WcsK1ufNMCUsG9ZBE4t0r8JqIZydmAR3LytB8OHNLo/edit?usp=sharing

  • L3gOnD

    That is a solid ROI and congrats on that…Klair I was wondering how you got that breakdown? Is there a way to pull something like that from DK that gives the breakdown? All I have seen is being able to pull the history of every tourney and then having to sort through that.

  • KlairVoyant

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    I got the XL sheet from RotoGrinders last year. it was under their daily Research tools. They don’t have the downloadable version anymore, now you have to upload it to the site and it doesn’t seem to work as well. Anyways I saved a blank version so if you want to send me your E-mail in a PM I can send you a copy of it and instructions on how to use it.

  • L3gOnD

    I appreciate that, I sent you a DM. I am decently new to DFS as I started playing a few months ago and would love to look at my statistics. I actually have 20X my deposit for the NBA since the season began so I was curious at seeing the ROI that I currently am operating at. It seems a solid ROI can be achieved and 30% is awesome for you, congrats. Just from what I have read, as I researched a lot over the past few months, it seems that 12 to 20% is sustainable for really solid players but I could be wrong. Just relaying from the sources I have read.

  • KlairVoyant

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    I sent you the BankRoll tracker XL and some instructions on how to use it. hopefully you find it very helpful. Let me know what your results are as I am curious to see how other newbies are preforming.

  • KRD227

    Yes..its pretty good. It looks like you are a GPP player though so it will probably fluctuate more than say a primarily cash game player. You get a big win it will probably double…you go cold it will fall. You definitely seem to be adept at GPPs though.

  • KlairVoyant

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    Thanks KRD, I use the same lineups in every format. Maybe that is a huge leak in my game. I wish there was something like Poker Tracker or Hold’em Manager for DFS

  • KRD227

    Typically you are looking for more upside in GPPs and more consistency and a higher floor in cash games. I’m betting you are somewhere in the middle which is why you are doing pretty good at both.

  • Centrin21

    KlairVoyant, there is something like HEM for DFS. dfstracker.com is currently free beta mode

  • KRD227

    @Centrin21 said...

    KlairVoyant, there is something like HEM for DFS. dfstracker.com is currently free beta mode

    Awesome! Thanks for this

  • deebarizo

    How many days have you played for each sport? Days is a better measure of sample size than games.

    For example, I could play 500 games tomorrow (500 H2Hs with a single lineup). Then, for the rest of the month, I could play 1 game (1 double up) each day. The single daily game over a month tells me a lot more about my skill than the 500 games I play in one day because each day I have to deal with a new slate with new salaries, new injuries, new matchups, etc.

    It’s in the constant daily grinding that you are able to demonstrate your skill (or lack of skill). I generally advise playing at least 100 days of a sport before jumping into any conclusions. And the more days you can play, the more your conclusions will be accurate.

    There is a ton of variance in DFS and we don’t really have a way to gain a decent sample size quickly like multi-tabling in poker.

  • KRD227

    I can’t believe my cash win % is 67.5%…I need to play even more cash games lol

  • Craptor

    ~38% over 30,000 contests in soccer.

  • emac

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    Reminder, ROI discussion can be very confusing because gamers think of the time frames and denominators differently.

    Example A – Started with $100 at the beginning of NFL, ended with $117 after Week 17 = 117 / 100 = 1.17 less 1 = 17% increase this would be “simple ROI

    Example B – Started with $100 at the beginning of NFL, ended with $117 after Week 17, however, each week played just $1 and always finished with $2 therefore making the same overall $17 net profit at the end of the season but a very high ROI because they were only putting a dollar per week in play.

    Example C – Started with the same $100 at the beginning of NFL, played $100 each week and ended each week with $101 so they too had $117 at the end of the season this is a low ROI because they were risking $100 in play each week and just netting $1 profit for the associated risk.

    Each example starts with $100 and ends with $117 and a $17 profit, but will provide a wildly different ROI with the variables.

  • KlairVoyant

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    I totally agree DeeBarizo! I played about 40% of last years NBA season and have played almost every slate on DK for NBA this year. I would say I am probably just below the 100 day mark now, but really I have no way to tell. I always knew that you could put a ton of volume in on one day and win/lose and it would totally skew your results. However, I don’t think that is the case with me. I pretty much play everything I can each slate $5 and under for GPP’s and pretty much only $1 for triple ups, double ups, and H2H’s. That is why my average bet per game is only $1.31.

    Thanks for the comments Deebarizo

    -KlairVoyant

  • KlairVoyant

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    @Centrin21 said...

    KlairVoyant, there is something like HEM for DFS. dfstracker.com is currently free beta mode

    I saw that tired that recently after I saw an article in Calvin Ayre about it. However I was unable to get it to operate properly and it was basically useless since I couldn’t get it to function. Have you been able to get it to work for you?

    Thanks in advance!
    -KlairVoyant

  • KlairVoyant

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    @emac said...

    Reminder, ROI discussion can be very confusing because gamers think of the time frames and denominators differently.

    Example A – Started with $100 at the beginning of NFL, ended with $117 after Week 17 = 117 / 100 = 1.17 less 1 = 17% increase this would be “simple ROI

    Example B – Started with $100 at the beginning of NFL, ended with $117 after Week 17, however, each week played just $1 and always finished with $2 therefore making the same overall $17 net profit at the end of the season but a very high ROI because they were only putting a dollar per week in play.

    Example C – Started with the same $100 at the beginning of NFL, played $100 each week and ended each week with $101 so they too had $117 at the end of the season this is a low ROI because they were risking $100 in play each week and just netting $1 profit for the associated risk.

    Each example starts with $100 and ends with $117 and a $17 profit, but will provide a wildly different ROI with the variables.

    Thanks Emac!

    Did you look at the link I provided to my RG BankRoll tracker XL sheet? I played 2,439 GPP’s at an average buy in of $1.36 and an ROI of 58%. For Double Ups I played 2,127 games at an average of $1.36 for an ROI of 14%. Triple ups were 975 games with an average buy in of $1.02 and an ROI of 24%. When you take everything combined together 6,272 games for an average buy-in of $1.31 and a ROI of 32%

    I wish I knew how many days or game slates I played as that information would be useful but RG BankRoll Tracker does not provide that info.

    Thanks for taking the time to check this out,

    -KlairVoyant

  • shawnzhan

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  • hokie2009

    I’d be really interested to know. My gut says that 30% is wholly unsustainable.

    But I am sure there are people that claim to sustain that. I don’t know if I believe them.

    Not saying they’re wrong, just saying, I don’t know.

    I THINK maxdalury has been quoted at least once as claiming an 8% ROI, to give some perspective, and I think he’s probably got the strongest sample of volume of any DFS player out there, and arguably, the best, volume aside? I don’t want to start that debate, I’m just saying, that is one time where I feel like a high-volume guy quoted a figure that he actually probably really calculated – but again we’re not sure by which method, as was pointed out by emac.

    But it’s one good data point.

    And others will point out that ROIs are different for everybody. It depends on contest types. Dalury could likely play less volume, make less money, and have a higher ROI, but he chooses not to, and makes more money by doing so.

    But if dalury is actually sitting at 8, by any measure, I would think that 30% is unsustainable.

    However the fact that you’re playing all $1-ish games … … … should not be understated. I 100% believe your numbers (obviously, you were pretty transparent in sharing them) … and NOT trying to be a hater – and I am not a huge volume guy nor a pro or a tout or any of those things … and my ROI is NOT that high … but just my two cents, it feels like an unsustainable number.

    I think you have a great grip on it and surely have a sample enough that there’s almost no chance that your true long-term ROI will be negative … but by most measures that’s quite lofty. I am not in a position to sit here and tell you you CAN’T sustain it, just feels like it would be improbable to sustain that, if that’s a fair assessment? Mostly off of gut feel for the quantities involved, and a very limited number of stories of other reputable players sharing their long-term ROIs.

    Not sure if that’s the kind of feedback you’re looking for, but that’s my 2 cents!

  • smallANDflaccid

    @hokie2009 said...

    I THINK maxdalury has been quoted at least once as claiming an 8% ROI

    I read that too, but I read it as an 8% daily return on what was risked (I think same article said $100k at risk daily) – vs year end ROI on bankroll (which same article implied was ~$1M).

    $8k per day, assume something like 200 days = $1.6M over his bankroll of $1M is well over an 8% ROI.
    (obviously his strategy is high variance, but I read it that was his avg daily return on risk – and also not to be misread as win rate)

    But as you said, probably not fair to compare to him, as he is taking on all of the action he can get, and the OP is not saturating multiple site’s action, so he can pick and choose the worse players.

  • KlairVoyant

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    Thank you for everyone’s responses they’re all helpful.it’s nice to hear views from a range of players since I’m a newbie to DFS however I am familiar with gaming theory and general Poker and equities trading. One thing I would like to note is that an acquaintance of mine “Ed Miller” did a study recently that showed that during the first half of the MLB season 1.3% of the players won 91% of the money. I too felt like a 30% return on investment felt like it was too high to be sustainable over the long run. My personal goal is to be somewhere between 5 and 10% but so far I’m running much better than I had expected. Thank you again everyone!

    -KlairVoyant

  • KlairVoyant

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    @KRD227 said...

    Yes..its pretty good. It looks like you are a GPP player though so it will probably fluctuate more than say a primarily cash game player. You get a big win it will probably double…you go cold it will fall. You definitely seem to be adept at GPPs though.

    I have never had a big tournament sore yet. You can check that out by looking at my history under my profile here on RG. I have never gotten first place in a tournament with more than 230 players. Most of the time when I cash in a GPP I get between 2.5x and 3.5x my initial investment. I wish I did have that one huge score that would skew my results in GPPs way to the upside!

    -KlairVoyant

  • KlairVoyant

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    @smallANDflaccid said...

    But as you said, probably not fair to compare to him, as he is taking on all of the action he can get, and the OP is not saturating multiple site’s action, so he can pick and choose the worse players.

    I have not been player selecting what so ever. Although I should be. I just don’t know who is good and who is bad and how to to avoid them, which is probably another huge leak in my game. I barley play H2H games and that is the only place I can think of where I could actually bum hunt. Is there any program that would help me find out how much softer the players were at different buy in levels. I could actually see the $5-$10 range being softer than the $1-$2 range because a casual player would probably just register in one game as apposed to 10 if they wanted to wager $10 that night. Does anyone have any insights into this or evidence to support the difficultly levels at different buy-in ranges?

    Anything helps, thanks again guys!

    -KlairVoyant

  • KlairVoyant

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    @shawnzhan said...

    To answer your question definitely sustainable. I’m at around 37.5% over 60,000 entries in nba

    You are also a superstar player. When I grow up I want to be like you! I feel like saying I’m not even worthy of being in your presence! Thanks for the info though, it really does help!!

  • VChair23

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    This is an interesting discussion thank you for sharing your numbers. I have yet to use the bankroll tracker for my NBA season so far, once I do I will try and come back to this thread. But I calculated 32% ROI as 29.3/40 H2H unless I screwed up my math, and I do not think that is sustainable over the long run. If someone can do the math on how often you would have to cash in a double up or 50/50 for that ROI% it would be interesting.

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